Core Viewpoint - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rejects the notion of an AI bubble, asserting that the company is experiencing a "virtuous cycle" in AI development and demand for computing power is exponentially increasing [1][5]. Group 1: Demand and Orders - The demand for computing power is described as "exponentially increasing," with Nvidia's Blackwell chips selling exceptionally well, indicating strong business performance [1]. - Nvidia has $500 billion in AI chip orders that are scheduled for delivery up to 2026, showcasing robust future demand [1]. Group 2: Client Base and Investment - Major clients include OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, which signifies substantial investments in computing infrastructure, suggesting that the industry is not experiencing a bubble [2]. - The involvement of tech giants in AI development indicates genuine financial commitment, reducing the likelihood of financial misrepresentation and bubble conditions [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Risks - Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately 1.14 times that of Apple, reflecting significant investor interest, although this does not imply an uncontrollable market situation [3]. - There are concerns regarding the concentration of risk, particularly with OpenAI's leadership and Nvidia's reliance on TSMC for chip production, which could pose challenges if issues arise [4]. - The lifecycle of computing chips is around four years, necessitating continuous purchases from Nvidia by AI firms, which could create dependency risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping by 3.18% and the STAR 50 Index falling by 2.7%, amid external pressures such as the "AI bubble theory" and tightening US dollar liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of midday, the total estimated net inflow into deep market ETFs reached 7.9 billion yuan, with specific net subscriptions for various ETFs: 2.621 billion yuan for the ChiNext Index, 1.157 billion yuan for the CSI 1000, 982 million yuan for the CSI A500, 601 million yuan for the CSI 300, and 312 million yuan for the CSI 500 [1] - Since October 30, there has been a shift from growth to value style in the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with significant net inflows into ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index and STAR 50 [1] Group 2: ETF Insights - The largest STAR 50 ETF saw a total net inflow of 3.46 billion yuan over the past 16 days, while the A500 ETF had a net inflow of 2.7 billion yuan over the past 20 days [1] - The core configuration significance of broad-based ETFs lies in their ability to mitigate uncertainties in a volatile market through "diversification + low cost + high flexibility" [1] - Notable products include the STAR 50 ETF (588000) with a latest scale of 71.8 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 4.197 billion yuan, and the A500 ETF (512050) with an average daily trading volume of 4.128 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - The创业板 ETF (159957) is highlighted as a low-fee representative of new economy sectors, encompassing four high-growth industries: new energy, pharmaceuticals, computing power, and brokerage [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's recent financial report indicates a significant recovery in revenue and net profit growth, driven primarily by strong demand in the data center business, despite challenges in the Chinese market [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $57 billion, a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 62% increase year-over-year; net profit reached $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - The revenue growth rate had previously slowed down, but this quarter marks the first simultaneous increase in both revenue and net profit after several quarters of decline [4]. - The data center segment remains the primary revenue driver, generating $51.215 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year; gaming revenue was $4.265 billion, up 30%; professional visualization revenue was $760 million, up 56%; and automotive revenue was $592 million, up 32% [5]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns about an "AI bubble," asserting that the company is well-prepared to succeed in all stages of AI development [6][7]. - The demand for Nvidia's Blackwell architecture GPUs has exceeded expectations, contributing significantly to revenue growth [5][7]. - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, major stakeholders, including SoftBank and Huang himself, have sold off significant shares, raising concerns about potential market bubbles [6][7]. Strategic Investments - Nvidia continues to invest strategically in companies like Intel, OpenAI, and Nokia to expand its AI ecosystem and ensure optimal performance across its product range [8]. - The company aims to maintain a robust cash flow management approach while pursuing these investments [8]. Challenges in the Chinese Market - Nvidia's market share in China has plummeted from 95% to 0% for high-end AI chips due to U.S. export controls, leading to a complete withdrawal from the Chinese market [10]. - The company expressed disappointment over missed large purchase orders in China due to geopolitical issues and increased competition [10]. - Nvidia's absence in the Chinese market has created opportunities for local AI chip manufacturers, such as Cambrian, which reported a 1332.52% year-over-year revenue increase [11].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower today, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Internet ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF falling by 2% and 1.6% respectively, influenced by unexpected strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and a decline in U.S. stocks [1] - Despite the market downturn, there has been a significant net inflow into the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF, totaling 4.472 billion yuan over 16 trading days from October 30 to November 20, even as the index fell by 10.11% during this period [1] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF also saw a net inflow of 2.518 billion yuan over the same 16 days, with a decline of 10.24% [1] Group 2 - The recent adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to factors such as the "AI bubble theory," tightening liquidity in the U.S. market, and profit-taking by institutions after a more than 20% increase in the Hang Seng Technology Index this year [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 18% since October 3, indicating a potential buying opportunity [2] - Positive developments include strong Q3 financial results and Q4 guidance from Nvidia, which may help alleviate concerns regarding the "AI bubble," alongside Alibaba's upcoming earnings report on November 25 [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause balance sheet reduction on December 1, coupled with rising unemployment rates over the past three months, suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF has a current scale of 46.49 billion yuan, including major Chinese tech companies such as SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Xiaomi, and Lenovo [4] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF, with a scale of 34.284 billion yuan, has over 80% weight in leading internet stocks, with an AI content exceeding 90% [4]

②英伟达强劲的Q3财报数据以及Q4指引，或有助于平息"AI泡沫论"。叠加阿里将于11月25日公布财 报。 ①近期"AI泡沫论"+美元市场流动性紧张（美政府停摆+12月降息概率走低），港股科技股承压下跌。 ②恒生科技指数年内涨幅超20%的情况下，机构倾向于锁定利润，转而关注稳定性更高的红利资产。③ 港股年初IPO和配售个股迎来解禁期。 但积极因素同样在积累： ①恒生科技指数10月以来持续回调，自10月3日至今累计回调幅度超18%。 受隔夜超预期的9月非农数据+美股跳水下跌，今日港股全线低开，恒生科技指数跌2.21%，恒生互联网 ETF、恒生科技指数ETF分别跌2%和1.6%。 资金却选择越跌越买，恒生科技指数ETF自10月30日-11月20日的16个交易日连续获资金净申购，合计 净流入额44.72亿元，期内下跌10.11%。恒生互联网ETF同样上演16日净流入，合计净流入25.18亿元， 期内下跌10.24%。 港股近期持续调整的原因： ③美联储12月1日暂停缩表+9月非农数据虽超预期，但美联储更关注的失业率连续三个月上升。 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 港股全科技赛道：恒生科技指数ETF(513180)，-1 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has successfully calmed the anxious market with its recent earnings report, showing a significant year-over-year revenue growth of 65% for Q3, marking the first acceleration in two years [1][6] - The company's data center revenue reached a historic high, growing by 66% year-over-year, and its Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion exceeded Wall Street's expectations of $62 billion [1][6] Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is considered the cornerstone of the AI capital expenditure chain, with its orders reflecting the total global AI investment [1] - CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the strong demand for cloud GPUs, indicating that both training and inference computing needs are growing exponentially [2][7] AI Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are projected to increase their annual capital expenditures in AI and data centers to $450 billion [4] - The overall AI capital expenditure is expected to continue rising, with estimates reaching $5 trillion for related infrastructure and facilities [11][14] Concerns and Market Dynamics - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of AI investments, particularly in light of OpenAI's significant capital requirements and the potential for a valuation bubble [4][12] - The market is witnessing a sell-off in AI stocks, driven by fears of overvaluation and the sustainability of revenue growth in the face of high capital expenditures [4][16] Future Outlook - The AI arms race is expected to accelerate over the next two years, with capital expenditures in the AI sector likely to continue increasing [10] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term winners in the AI space, particularly those with strong cash flows and sustainable business models [19]

其次是AI泡沫论。这个咱们在前面文章也讲过了，科技巨头投入了数万亿美元建设数据中心和AI能力，可何时能真正看到这些投入 带来的回报？英伟达则是那个关键，不夸张地说全球AI个股的表现都会受英伟达影响，甚至于美股的涨跌也要系英伟达于一身。不 过英伟达财报还是很给力的，无论是营收、利润还是对下一季度的展望，均显著高于市场预期，盘后股价也受影响大涨。今天日韩 股市能暴涨两三个点，也是因为深度绑定了英伟达产业链。不过财报虽然超出了华尔街预期，但不及陆家嘴预期，国内相关产业链 个股全都高开低走。虽然有不少分歧，但是美股看起来短期仍有支撑的逻辑。 来源：财经林妹妹 美股，日股，黄金，虚拟货币，大宗品过去的一周几乎全军覆没，A股走势也一言难尽，看起来又要触碰3900了。咱们今天主要来 分析一下原因，再说说对未来市场的判断。 | | | A股重要指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | 年初至今 | | 上证指数 | 3931.05 | -15.69 | -0.40% | +17.28% | | 深证成指 | 12980.82 | -99.27 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, the Hong Kong stock market, led by technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, has been on the rise, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a recent high of 6715.46 on October 2, and the Hang Seng Index showing a gain of over 30% [1][3] - However, in less than two months, the Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced a continuous adjustment, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 15%, and a recent five-day losing streak [1][3] - Despite the market pullback, southbound capital has accelerated its inflow, with a net purchase exceeding 1.3 trillion HKD this year, and cumulative net inflow surpassing 5 trillion HKD, setting a historical record [1][7] Market Dynamics - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market's technology sector is attributed to multiple factors, including persistent concerns over an "AI bubble," a cooling concept of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating tariff conflicts, which have led to a systematic devaluation of technology stocks [3][4] - Additionally, as the year-end approaches, there is a shift in investment focus towards dividend-paying assets like banks and non-bank financials, rather than high-volatility technology stocks [4] Financial Performance - Nvidia's strong Q3 earnings report, showing a revenue of 57 billion USD (up 62% year-on-year) and a Q4 revenue outlook of approximately 65 billion USD, may help alleviate market concerns regarding the "AI bubble" [5] - Major Hong Kong technology companies have also reported robust Q3 earnings, indicating resilience in the face of global economic disruptions, with highlights including Tencent's revenue of 192.9 billion CNY (up 15%) and Xiaomi's revenue of 113.12 billion CNY (up 22.3%) [6][5] Investment Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, several institutions remain optimistic about the mid-to-long-term prospects of the Hong Kong technology and internet sectors, driven by the AI wave and supportive policies [7] - The inflow of southbound capital is unprecedented, with insurance and public funds driving a dual strategy of "technology growth + high dividend yield" [7][8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE ratio of 23.09, significantly lower than the Nasdaq's 42.5, indicating a strong value proposition for long-term investors [9][8] ETF Performance - The inflow of funds has led to a rise in the scale of related ETFs, with the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF exceeding 46 billion CNY and the Hang Seng Internet ETF nearing 34 billion CNY [8][9] - The current market environment, characterized by improving liquidity and low valuations, presents a favorable opportunity for long-term investment in Hong Kong's technology sector [10]

| Non-GAAP | | --- | 英伟达被视为AI行业的风向标，作为AI算力的核心供给方，其业绩状况直接映射AI行业的真实需求与繁荣程度。 美东时间周三盘后，人工智能（AI）龙头股英伟达公布了超出预期的2026财年第三季度财报。 财报显示，英伟达第三财季营收为570.1亿美元，超出市场预期的549.2亿美元，同比增长62%；净利润为319.1亿美元，同比大涨65%，经调整后的每股收 益为1.30 美元，高于市场预期的1.25美元。 | GAAP | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ($ in millions, except earnings per share) | Q3 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | Q/Q | Y/Y | | Revenue | $57,006 | $46,743 | $35,082 | 22% | 62% | | Gross margin | 73.4% | 72.4% | 74.6% | 1.0 pts | (1.2) pts | | Operating expenses | $5,8 ...

格隆汇11月20日｜今日A股板块再度领涨，其中，A股涨超4%，连续第二日创历史新高，市值突破2万亿，涨1%创历史新高，市值超越，重夺第一宝座，银 行ETF基金涨1.85%。自由现金流ETF盘中再现净申购3570万，已连续9日"吸金"，合计净流入14.95亿元。 ①从今日科技板块的冲高回落、持续逆势上涨的走势可见：年末资金资金偏向于追求稳定性以及锁定年度收益。 ②12月美联储降息概率进一步低至3成+AI泡沫论盛行，使得市场风险偏好有所下降。综合国内10月信贷、社零数据趋弱，公共事业、银行和红利板块的关 注度提高。 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明 示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...