"我认为，他们（法院）很有可能会在某种程度上限制这些关税。" 2026年初，资本市场因特朗普政府掀起的"夺取格陵兰岛"事件遭遇首只"黑天鹅"。 当地时间1月21日，事件再次反转。美国总统特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛 的欧洲8国加征关税。 格陵兰岛问题会成为新一轮贸易战的催化剂吗？在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所的研讨会上，奥巴马政府 时期总统首席经济学家和白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在回答第一财经记者提问时表示，在（该事件发生之前）的一周前，他大致认为，到2026年 底，美国的关税水平很可能会比开始时低。 而对于"特朗普总统是否总会退缩（TACO）"这一问题，他表示："总的来说，特朗普总统取消威胁、增 加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。" 如何看待2026年美国关税前景 福尔曼解释道，关税在政治上相对不受欢迎。"目前美国政治辩论的核心经济问题是价格承受能力，也 就是物价水平，而关税显然会对此产生影响。" 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和福尔曼等人共同撰写的最新一期《政策评 论》报告也显示，美国通胀的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is stable, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continue to rise. The A - share market is expected to maintain a strong performance this week, while the bond market may show a weak and volatile pattern. The investment value of 10 - year treasury bonds at the 1.9% level is gradually emerging [6]. - Upcoming economic data is expected to remain at a low level without significant surprises, providing some support for the bond market. Overseas geopolitical events may also impact the capital market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Capital Market Conditions - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.43% to 1.47%, and DR001 ranged from 1.26% to 1.27%, with little change compared to the previous week [1]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds continued to rise overall. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield decreased by 4bp, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 8bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 3bp, 4bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively [1]. Market Performance Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 58.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 45.08bp, widening by 7.90bp and 1.71bp respectively compared to January 4 [4]. Other Market Conditions - The stock market has shown strong performance recently, achieving five consecutive positive days at the beginning of the year. The bond market has shown some independence, with the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds soaring first and then seeing bargain - hunting on Thursday and Friday [6]. - CPI was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the rebound of fresh vegetable prices in food prices, while non - food prices, especially rent, declined significantly, indicating a weak inflation trend. PPI was basically in line with expectations [6]. - US non - farm payroll data shows a tight labor supply, with the probability of interest rate cuts remaining low. However, Powell's criminal case has led to market expectations of increased interest rate cuts, resulting in high risk sentiment in overseas markets [6].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is attributed to the easing geopolitical risks surrounding Greenland, as indicated by a statement from U.S. President Trump regarding the non-use of force to acquire the territory [1] - On January 22, spot gold experienced a daily decline of 1.00%, reaching a low of $4777.23 per ounce before rebounding near the $4800 mark, while spot silver fluctuated between $90.79 and $94 per ounce [1] - The European Parliament has indefinitely postponed the vote on the U.S.-EU trade agreement until the U.S. returns to a cooperative stance, which has contributed to the reduction of market risk aversion [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the price of gold may rise less aggressively in 2026 compared to 2025, while copper is expected to show strong performance driven by increased investment in the power sector [2] - The price dynamics of gold and copper are influenced by different factors; gold is primarily driven by its safe-haven appeal, whereas copper's demand is linked to industrial applications, particularly in electricity transmission [2] - The relationship between gold and copper is complex; both are affected by U.S. monetary policy, but they respond differently to inflationary pressures, with high inflation favoring gold and moderate inflation benefiting copper [2][3]

本周美股市场一开盘就遭遇狂跌模式，周二美国股指下跌超过2%，标普500指数遭遇10月以来最大跌幅，与科技股为主导的纳指共同抹去了2026年以来的涨 幅。美元兑大多数主要货币走软，美债收益率飙升触及四个月高位，30年期国债收益率攀升至接近5%；黄金价格迅速连破4700、4800美元两大新高。 就在市场经历"过山车"后，即将迎来又一重磅指引，今晚美国即将公布11月核心PCE物价指数以及第三季度GDP终值。市场预期11月核心PCE物价指数为 2.8%，月率预计为0.2%；第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值预计维持为4.3%。 此前数据显示，12月份美国CPI按年率计算上涨2.7%，符合预期；剔除食品和能源价格的核心价格上涨2.6%，比预期低0.1个百分点。如果PCE通胀符合预 期，则表明确认通胀降温趋势。 当前美国商品通缩延续，得益于供应链修复和消费部分转向服务，汽车、家具等商品价格持续疲软。不过服务通胀黏性强，这是当前的核心矛盾。住房服务 成本降温缓慢，加之医疗、保险等服务价格受薪资增长支撑，回落速度是主要观察点。 按照共识，未来几个月，通胀率很可能仍将维持在3%左右，这主要是由于多种因素造成的，例如企业将关税转嫁给 ...

黄金一路走高，昨天加速冲顶，直线飙升130美金。触达4900关口附近后，再次上演高位跳水，闪跌超 100美金，不断上蹿下跳，高位洗盘。 昨天4866附近，再次空获利。 今天的走势 昨天涨势过猛，一波冲顶新高后。 直接进入了整理，闯关无果后。 美盘直接跳水，一路狂泄，至4755的位置。 到今天再次快速回升，围绕4800的位置调整。 上午4810的位置，遇阻小幅整理后。 再次反弹延续，上方来到了4830附近。 上方再看4840的位置，上破，那么继续看向4890的阻力。 当然了，处在4840下方调整，可再探4794的位置。 关注两个区域范围内的调整，多空争夺。 随着高位洗盘，下方再次跌破了4794，继续看大的回调，看向4755的位置。 黄金本月连刷历史新高，迎来连续3个月连涨。一路狂奔，特别是本月过半，修复跌幅后，再创历史高 位。而且本周进入高位洗盘，再次上破，续涨新高看向5000的关口。当然了，下方可调整空间拉大，可 看到4650的区域。 操作方面，黄金整体处在大的涨势中的调整，看反弹的机会，关注4794和4755做多的机会。此外，黄金 冲高跳水，短期内看承压调整，关注4840和4890做空的机会。 昨天主要影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in Australia's unemployment rate to 4.1% is likely to be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Michele Bullock, as it allows the central bank to focus on the upcoming fourth-quarter CPI data, which will influence the decision on interest rate hikes in February [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Australia has decreased to 4.1%, which is a significant development for the central bank [1] - Despite being a staunch inflation hawk, the Governor would feel pressure if the unemployment rate were to rise this year [1] - The central bank is aiming to regain control over inflation risks, with any unusual signs in trimmed mean inflation being critical for the February rate hike decision [1]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with prices trading above $93.58 and reaching a high of $94.11, reflecting a 1.04% increase [1] - The short-term outlook for silver prices suggests a potential rise towards the resistance level of $98.00, with a trading range expected between $90.00 support and $98.00 resistance [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, with expectations that inflation pressures remain persistent [3] - The consensus forecast for the core PCE price index for Q3 is projected to be 2.9%, unchanged from the previous value, indicating that inflation is in a "sideways" phase and remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] - Citigroup economists noted that core PCE inflation has remained stubbornly high, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve as inflation has not worsened but has not softened enough to justify immediate rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1074.22, with a slight decline of 0.09%, reaching a high of 1099.62 and a low of 1074.00 [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bearish [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% this quarter, reversing previous expectations of a rate cut before March [3] - The strong growth outlook for the U.S. economy and persistent inflation above the 2% target are the main reasons supporting this judgment [3] - 58% of economists surveyed expect no change in rates this quarter, with a consensus that the January FOMC meeting will result in no action [3] - Concerns about political interference are rising, with Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting rates effectively and potential criminal investigations into Powell's actions [3] Group 3 - The survey has raised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.3%, up from 2% last month, with an average of 2% expected by 2028 [4] - The chief economist at Oxford Economics is more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.8% due to AI investments and tax cuts contributing 0.6 percentage points [4] - Inflation, as measured by PCE, is expected to remain above the 2% target this year and through 2028, with an average unemployment rate of 4.5% [4] Group 4 - As of January 22, 2026, the main gold futures contract has surpassed 1100 yuan/gram, creating a historical high and showing a high-level oscillation [5] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to the RSI nearing the overbought zone [5] - Support is noted at 1090 yuan/gram, while resistance is observed at 1120 yuan/gram, with geopolitical tensions and global central bank gold purchases supporting the long-term trend [5]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-22 去美元化重启，关注格陵兰危机 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普 发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至 25%。他表示，这一关税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。当地时间20日，欧洲议会 宣布冻结对去年7月与美国达成的贸易协议的批准程序。这被视为欧盟对美国总统特朗普最新施压举措作出的首次 回应。特朗普21日表示，不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提 起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计 划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美联储理事Cook的听证会。贝森特还称，特朗普最早下周公布新美联储 主席。从事件的角度，需要关注保证金和流动性市场带来的变量。根据芝商所1月12日发布的通知，将改变黄 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - The UK's inflation rate rose for the first time in five months in December, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in the previous month [1][6] - The rise in inflation was attributed to an increase in tobacco taxes and a surge in outbound travel demand during the Christmas period [1][6] - The inflation increase was slightly below market expectations, which had predicted a rise to 3.5%, with economists suggesting that this uptick is a short-term fluctuation and that overall inflation will trend downward towards the Bank of England's target of 2% [1][6] Group 2: European Central Bank Insights - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasized the transition to a new, unpredictable global order during a discussion at the World Economic Forum, suggesting that Europe needs to prepare for this change [1][6] - Lagarde noted that the new international order will replace the current system of global cooperation and free trade, which has been dominated by U.S. leadership, with a more decentralized framework [1][6] - She also mentioned that eliminating non-tariff trade barriers could strengthen European nations [1][6]