Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, marking a decline of 0.76% [1][2] - The decline in reserves was influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations, and fluctuations in global financial asset prices, with the dollar index rising [1][2] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months, indicating stability in the overall scale [2] Group 2: Gold Reserves - By the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, with the central bank having increased gold holdings for nine consecutive months [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has maintained a consistent monthly increase in gold reserves, typically around 60,000 to 70,000 ounces since April [3] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [3]

当天更新的官方储备资产数据显示，2025年7月末，中国官方黄金储备为7396万盎司，较上月末增加6万盎司。目前，中国央行已连续9个月增持黄金。 外储继续站稳3.2万亿美元 外汇储备是外汇资产，以美元作为记账货币。过去一个月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数上涨，全球金融资产价格涨跌互 现，我国外汇储备规模环比下降。 受当月美国与海外多个发达经济体达成贸易协议推动，以及市场对美联储降息预期下降等因素影响，7月美元指数明显回升，结束了此前连续5个月的下跌走势。美 元指数的回升也导致非美元货币在7月集体贬值。"由于外储以美元计价，非美货币贬值减少了经汇率折算后的外汇储备规模。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬对证券时 报记者说。 美联储降息预期的降温则进一步影响到全球资产价格，7月以来全球主要股指普遍上涨，对外储形成支撑。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，我国外储中的全球 金融资产价格总体上涨，在很大程度上对冲了美元升值带来的影响。 国家外汇管理局（下称外汇局）8月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2025年7月末，中国外汇储备规模32922亿美元，较6月末下降252亿美 元，降幅为0.76%。目前 ...

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from June, marking a decline of 0.76% [1] - The decline in reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices, with the dollar index increasing by 3.2% to 100.0, the highest since late May [3][4] - Despite the decrease, China's foreign exchange reserves remain above $3.2 trillion, providing a solid foundation for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium [3][4] Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 7,396 million ounces (approximately 2,300.41 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [2][6] - The total value of gold reserves rose by $10 billion to $243.985 billion, representing 7.41% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is still below the global average of around 15% [2][6] - The increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize international reserve structure and enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency, especially in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening confidence in the dollar system [6][7] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policies in China are prepared to adapt flexibly to ongoing risks and challenges, with a focus on maintaining stable economic growth supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [5] - The central bank's strategy includes a steady increase in gold reserves while managing costs and diversifying international reserves to mitigate market risks and geopolitical uncertainties [7][8] - A recent survey indicated that over 90% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, reflecting a growing trend towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8]

每经记者|张寿林 每经编辑|廖丹 8月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为32922亿美元，较6月 末下降252亿美元，降幅为0.76%。 央行数据显示，7月末黄金储备为7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，连续第九个月增加。立足当下，王青 判断，央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 短期内外储规模有望保持基本稳定 对于7月末官方外汇储备数据，国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示，2025年7月，受主要经济体宏观经济数 据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数上涨，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变 化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模下降。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的 支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 王青判断，7月末外储规模出现一定幅度下降，主要有两个原因：一方面，受当月美国与多国达成贸易 协议推动，7月末美元指数比6月末大幅回升3.39%，结束了此前连续5个月的下跌过程。这意味着7月我 国外储中非美元资产价格下跌，是当月外储规模下降的主要原因。其他方面，7月全球主要股指普遍上 涨，但美债收益率上行，美债价格走低。整体看，7月末我国外储 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a decline in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields in the US, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.23% and the 2-year yield to 3.69% during the week of July 28 to August 1 [3][22][23] - The report highlights a significant net inflow of southbound funds, totaling 819.5 billion yuan year-to-date, with major inflows into non-bank financials (+13 billion yuan), pharmaceuticals (+10.66 billion yuan), and electronics (+3.79 billion yuan) [6][44][47] - The report notes a decrease in financing buy-in amounts, averaging 189.3 billion yuan, which represents a 0.4% week-on-week decline, while the proportion of financing buy-in to total A-share trading volume increased [7][51] Group 2 - In July, 135 new funds were established, with 78 being equity funds, totaling approximately 35.5 billion units issued, compared to 83 funds in July 2024 [6][29][33] - The report states that 32 new equity ETFs were launched in July, with a total issuance of 13.9 billion units, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6][35][39] - The report mentions that the IPO activity in July included 8 companies raising approximately 24.2 billion yuan, with a total equity financing scale of about 66.2 billion yuan [7][56]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly, primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a sustained upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in international gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index after hitting the 100-day moving average, indicating a potential reduction in the dollar's rebound momentum [1] - If US economic data confirms a cooling of inflation, international gold prices could potentially reach $3,400 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the U.S. economy showed signs of improvement in July after hitting a low in June, despite a rebound in the dollar index since July. The tightening of dollar liquidity and the impact of tariffs on inflation may negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, while the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to around 4.8% in the near term. However, the long-term outlook remains positive for risk assets due to potential dollar liquidity easing and fiscal support for the economy [1][2][16]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Dynamics - The dollar index reflects various factors including cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity. Its fluctuations indicate a structural bear market for the dollar amidst ongoing capital rebalancing between the U.S. and other markets [2][4]. - The dollar index has maintained strength despite the widening U.S. fiscal and trade deficits over the past two years, driven by continued capital inflows into U.S. assets underpinned by AI-related market confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index regained positive correlation with the U.S.-Germany yield spread from May, reflecting the recovery of the U.S. economy in July after a downturn from April to June [6][7]. - High-frequency data indicates that unemployment claims rose significantly from April to June, peaking at 1.95 million, corresponding to an unemployment rate of 4.3%. However, new job openings showed a recovery starting in July [9][10]. Group 3: Liquidity and Debt Issuance - The liquidity situation shifted from easing to tightening as the Treasury General Account (TGA) began releasing funds to replenish reserve accounts, with a significant increase in net debt issuance in July amounting to $308.3 billion compared to $104.9 billion from April to June [12][14]. - The Treasury is projected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [20][21]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The potential for inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, coupled with strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [16][18]. - The report suggests that if the U.S. economy remains stable with rising inflation and tightening dollar liquidity, Treasury yields are unlikely to stay low, which could adversely affect the real estate and manufacturing sectors [21][22]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The report anticipates potential adjustments in risk assets over the next couple of months due to tightening liquidity and rising inflation, particularly affecting growth sectors, while financial, real estate, and industrial sectors may remain resilient due to policy support [22]. - The long-term trend suggests that fiscal dominance may lead to renewed liquidity and continued improvement in fundamentals, maintaining an upward trajectory for the market despite short-term adjustments [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the US economy and the impact of various factors such as monetary policy, fiscal measures, and international trade on market performance, suggesting that while there may be short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for risk assets remains positive due to potential liquidity easing and fiscal support [2][18][25]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The US economy is believed to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning in July to absorb dollar liquidity [2][18]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to gradually manifest, potentially affecting US stock performance negatively in August and September [2][18]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to quickly bottom out and rise to around 4.8% [2][18]. Group 2: Dollar Index and Liquidity - The dollar index reflects cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity, maintaining strength despite the US's fiscal and trade deficits due to ongoing capital inflows driven by AI investments [3][4]. - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index has shown a recovery since May, correlating with the decline in the US-German yield spread [7][9]. - A significant increase in net debt issuance occurred in July, totaling $308.3 billion, compared to only $104.9 billion from April to June [13][15]. Group 3: Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The risk of inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, alongside strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [18][20]. - The Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [22][24]. - The potential for a "new accord" between fiscal and monetary policy could lead to renewed dollar liquidity and improved performance of risk assets in the long term [25].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 周三纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.61%，报98.179点，日内交投区间为98.837-98.128点，日内至北京时间 17:00持续高位震荡，随后持续震荡下行，02:44刷新日低。彭博美元指数跌0.45%，报1204.33点，日内 交投区间为1210.24-1203.69点。 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The US dollar index strengthened to the upper edge of 100 during the week but quickly depreciated below 99 after the release of non - farm payroll data on Friday. The subsequent outlook suggests a further decline in the US dollar index, and the view of a downward trend in the US dollar is maintained for the year [2]. - The reasons for the mid - week strengthening of the US dollar include the agreement between the US and major trading partners, the closing of crowded short - dollar positions before events, and better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and ADP employment data as well as a hawkish Fed in July [2]. - The weak non - farm payroll data on Friday reversed the logic of the strengthening US dollar. The 3 - month average non - farm payrolls have been slowing since February 2025, and only 35,000 jobs were added as of July [2]. - The logic supporting the downward trend of the US dollar this year includes the slowdown of the US economy and further Fed rate cuts, the recovery of other economies and rising investment returns, and the room for the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio [2]. Group 2: Other Observations - The spread between US and German yields oscillated downward while the US dollar index generally trended upward [4]. - The US Citigroup economic surprise index declined [5]. - The CFTC net position shows that the net short position of the US dollar has decreased [10]. - The euro swap basis indicates that the cross - border liquidity pressure of the US dollar is limited [12]. - Based on the 30 - 10Y US Treasury yield spread and 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits are not the main contradiction affecting the US dollar [14][17]. - The US dollar index rebounded above the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is approaching overbought [19]. - The gold - to - copper ratio declined and then rose again on August 1st. Crude oil prices climbed and then fell, and copper prices declined [20].