Market Overview - The latest tariff threats from the Trump administration have led to a sell-off in risk assets, causing declines in U.S. stock index futures and European stock indices [1] - The U.S. plans to impose export restrictions on AI chips, resulting in a broad decline in European chip stocks [1] - Safe-haven assets like gold saw a price increase of nearly $20, while oil prices fell due to recent production increase news [1] U.S. Stock Futures - On July 4, the U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Independence Day, but prior to the holiday, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.69%, Dow futures dropped by 0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.71% [3][4] European Stock Indices - The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.48%, with a weekly decline of 0.46% [5] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 1.02%, accumulating a weekly drop of 0.69% [6] - The German DAX 30 index decreased by 0.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [7] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.75%, with a slight weekly increase of 0.06% [7] - The UK FTSE 100 index remained flat, closing at 8822.91 points, with a weekly increase of 0.27% [8] Sector Performance - European chip stocks experienced a broad decline, with ASML Holdings dropping approximately 2.6% [9] - Following the announcement of anti-dumping duties on EU brandy by China's Ministry of Commerce, Remy Cointreau's stock fell by 7.2% before recovering to close up by 2% [9] Bond Market - The U.S. bond market was closed on July 4, but European bond markets showed strength on the preceding Friday [9] - The German 10-year bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK 10-year bond yield rose by 1.3 basis points [13] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.33%, closing at $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92% [21] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down by 0.76%, closing at $66.49 per barrel [16]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high with a gain of 0.47%, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, contrasting with a slight decline in the Dow Jones [2][3] - The rally was primarily driven by technology stocks, with Tesla surging nearly 5%, Oracle also jumping 5%, and Nvidia and Apple both increasing over 2% [3] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's delivery numbers have declined for two consecutive quarters, yet the stock rose over 4%, indicating strong market confidence in the long-term prospects of electric vehicles despite short-term delivery data [3] - Cathie Wood's ARK Investment increased its stake in Tesla during the recent pullback, suggesting that major investors still believe in the long-term growth narrative for electric vehicles [3] Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.27%, while the two-year yield experienced volatility following the release of ADP employment data, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the economy and Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight decline, while crude oil prices increased by around 3%, and precious metals like gold and platinum also rose, indicating a potential increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors [3] Trade and Sector Performance - News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam led to a surge in apparel and footwear stocks, with Nike rising over 4% [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Golden Dragon Index barely up by 0.06%, while companies like Xpeng and Tiger Securities saw slight gains, contrasted by declines in New Oriental, Alibaba, and Bilibili [3] Investment Strategy - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, with technology giants supporting the indices through performance and AI narratives, while trade policies and economic data introduce uncertainty [4] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on whether the rebound in tech stocks is driven by sentiment recovery or fundamental support, and whether short-term trade benefits can translate into sustained corporate growth [4]

贵金属产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.04 | -0.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8747 | -63 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168596 | 1131 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 249023 | -15701 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 143164 | 3150 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 91814 | 972 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18456 | 3 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1338659 | -185 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 772.9 | 4.71 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8734 | 46 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.14 | 4.77 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -13 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]

金十数据7月2日讯，美国银行的客户以10周来最快的速度从美国股市撤资，减少了风险敞口。截至6月 底，标普500指数500指数创下了自2023年以来的最佳季度表现。包括吉尔·凯里·霍尔在内的美银量化策 略师在周二发布的一份报告中写道，上周，包括机构、散户和对冲基金在内的所有主要客户群体总计从 美国股市撤出了13亿美元。在市场出现避险情绪之际，围绕本轮反弹能否持续的不确定性越来越大。本 轮反弹已帮助标普500指数从4月份与关税相关的低点反弹，目前徘徊在2024年7月以来的最高超买水平 附近。 美国银行客户以10周内最快速度抛售美国股票 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to concerns about tariff policy uncertainty and the likely passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, along with the continuous decline of the US dollar index, the precious metal prices are boosted. Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while silver will follow gold's rise but its upside may be limited by factors such as the slowdown in the price increase of platinum and the weakening of its own fundamental demand [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.2% to $3331.05 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $36.25 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.2% to $3342.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.2% to $36.51 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 1, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -$3.19 per gram, with a 10.0% increase from June 30; the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -$26 per kilogram, with a 30.0% increase. Other price spreads and ratios also had different changes [3]. Position Data - As of June 30, 2025, compared with June 27, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.24% to 952.53 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.27% to 14826.61263 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of decline and increase [3]. Inventory Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1.18% to 18453.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.01% to 1338844.00 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory remained basically unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. Other Market Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.15. The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.17%, the VIX increased by 2.51%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.52%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.15% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell's slightly dovish stance on interest - rate cuts and the uncertainty of US trade agreements have affected the global risk appetite; domestically, the increase in the manufacturing PMI in June and consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. - The domestic stock market is rising, driven by factors such as the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term [4]. - Due to the weakening of the US dollar, non - ferrous metals are showing a strong - oscillating trend. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [5]. - The oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. Different energy - chemical products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [9]. - International crude oil premium and US biodiesel policy利好 are exhausted, and domestic oils and fats are under short - term pressure. Different agricultural products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Powell's statement is slightly dovish, but the labor market demand is better than expected. The US trade agreement is uncertain, and the global risk preference has cooled down. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. - Asset Suggestions: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious buying; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continues to rise, supported by sectors such as CSSC, biomedicine, and semiconductors. - Fundamental factors include the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose on Tuesday. The US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance support the gold price. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, and subsequent employment data should be focused on [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US officials are seeking to reach a trade agreement by July 9. The supply is high, demand may weaken, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The price may fall in the future, and the negotiation results and tariff policies should be focused on. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose due to the increase in copper prices. The LME inventory is increasing, and the domestic inventory has reached the inflection point of destocking. The warehouse receipts are decreasing. - Aluminum Alloy: It is in the off - season of demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term with limited upside. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but will be restricted in the medium term. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply is relatively loose, and one should wait for the opportunity after the rebound meets resistance. - Industrial Silicon: The price fell sharply, and the supply is unstable. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state, and one should observe. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [5][6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating strongly, following the oil price. The inventory is being destocked, and the situation in the peak - demand season should be focused on. - PX: The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand feedback is negative. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly. - PTA: The short - term basis has fallen, the demand is low, and the price may fall slightly later. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center has fallen, and the inventory at the port has decreased. The price will oscillate. - Short - Fiber: The inventory is being destocked slowly, and the price will oscillate weakly following the cost. - Methanol: The price is oscillating, affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The operation of Iranian devices should be focused on. - PP: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand. - LLDPE: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand in the off - season [9][10][12]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The short - term CBOT soybeans may have weather - related premium support due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in the main production areas in the next two weeks. - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is expected to be weak. The stable price of US soybeans provides some support. - Bean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply of soybean oil is loose, and it may be under pressure following related oils and fats. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to improve, and the high inventory at the port is being digested. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to weaken due to the exhaustion of利好 factors. - Corn: The spot price is strong, while the futures price is weak. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption, the corn price is likely to rise. - Pig: The spot price has rebounded due to the reduction of group - farm slaughter at the end of the month. The supply is expected to increase in July, and the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

7月1日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价重新上涨，整体价格又要超过千元了。具体来看，周生生 黄金在今日大涨15元/克，报价1000元/克，暂为最高价金店。上海中国黄金今日不仅没涨，反而还跌了 13元/克，报价956元/克，为最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差44元/克（1000元/克-956元/克），价差再次 拉大。 | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月1日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金开局有下跌趋势，一度跌至了3247.11美元/盎司，后不断震荡上行。最终收报3302.71美 元/盎司，涨幅0.90%。今日金价仍保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3327.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.76%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美元指数出现大跌，创2022年2 ...

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]