Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to using various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure ample liquidity and align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations. There is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts this year [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The average statutory deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.3%, indicating room for RRR cuts [2]. - The recent stability of the RMB exchange rate and the U.S. dollar's easing cycle suggest that external constraints on monetary policy are manageable [2]. - The PBOC has recently lowered various relending rates, which will help reduce banks' interest costs and stabilize net interest margins, creating space for interest rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Structural Rate Cuts - A structural "interest rate cut" has already been implemented, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various relending and rediscount rates effective from January 19, 2026 [2]. - This reduction is expected to lower the cost of funds for banks, encouraging them to lend at lower rates to key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green transformation [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Timing - Market analysts are closely watching for the timing of RRR and interest rate cuts, with expectations that the policy rate may be adjusted in the second quarter following the reduction in relending rates [3]. - There is a possibility of a 50 basis point RRR cut in the first quarter, while comprehensive interest rate cuts may require more time, with an expectation of 1 to 2 rate cuts throughout the year totaling 10 to 20 basis points [3]. Group 4: Recent Monetary Operations - On January 23, the PBOC conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 700 billion yuan after offsetting 200 billion yuan of maturing MLF [4]. - The expectation of RRR cuts has been somewhat tempered following significant net MLF injections, suggesting a reduced likelihood of RRR cuts before the Spring Festival [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate unchanged, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing that the current core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains below the 2% inflation target, indicating high uncertainty about future trends [1][2] - Ueda stated that the overall inflation rate is likely to fall below the 2% target, and the duration of the core CPI being below this target remains highly uncertain [1] - The central bank will focus on core inflation indicators and will evaluate various data, including the impact of last December's interest rate hike, when making decisions [1] Group 2 - Ueda highlighted the potential impact of a weak yen on import costs and domestic prices, noting that the central bank is closely monitoring how the depreciation of the yen and rising import prices will affect core inflation [2] - The dollar-yen exchange rate saw significant increases, approaching the psychological level of 160, raising concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - Ueda emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank while calling for the government to commit to fiscal health to gain market confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, each having different implications for monetary policy and market stability [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - Kevin Hassett has been a favored candidate for a long time, closely aligned with Trump's economic policies, which may lead to aggressive monetary policy stances [1] - Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, is also in the running, but his approach may not align as closely with Trump's preferences [1] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as a moderate rate cutter, potentially more acceptable to various stakeholders, and could be a compromise choice for Trump [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Sun Lijian from Fudan University warns that sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve for political gains could have long-term negative consequences for the U.S. economy [1] - Zhang Jianping from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation notes that Hassett's economic policy thinking has been significantly influenced by Trump since the first term [1] - Scholar Chu Yin suggests that while Hassett may be Trump's preferred choice, it could lead to significant market volatility, indicating that a more stable approach may be necessary [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy showed significant expansion in January 2026, with a composite PMI initial value of 53.9, surpassing the market expectation of 51.5 and marking the highest level since April 2024 [1][2] - The services sector experienced a remarkable increase, with the business activity index rising to 54.3 from 51.4, indicating strong growth momentum [2][5] - Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6 from 50.6, reaching a 17-month high, with new orders increasing for the third time in four months, driven by improved export sales [1][2] Group 2 - The growth in the latest data is attributed to multiple factors, including increased client investment spending due to budget certainty and a rise in export sales, marking the first increase in manufacturing export orders in four years [3] - Market expectations of interest rate cuts have also contributed to boosting client confidence, stimulating demand [3] Group 3 - The initial PMI data suggests robust quarterly GDP growth, potentially close to 0.4%, indicating a solid growth trend for the UK economy at the beginning of 2026 [4] - Despite strong growth in the services sector, particularly in financial services and technology, there are signs of ongoing challenges, including accelerated layoffs in the services industry [5][6] Group 4 - Inflationary pressures remain a concern, with input cost inflation at a seven-month high, particularly affecting service sector companies due to rising wages, transportation costs, and raw material prices [7] - The Bank of England faces new policy challenges as high labor costs are seen as a key driver of rising sales prices, indicating increasing price pressures beyond the central bank's target levels [8] Group 5 - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is weighing the implications of strong economic growth against persistent inflation pressures, with market attention focused on the central bank's next steps regarding interest rate policy [9]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 18%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Kazakhstan's inflation rate is projected to be 12.3% for 2025, aligning with previous expectations [1]. - Food prices, particularly for meat and vegetable oil, continue to rise due to increased production costs and export demand [1]. - Other consumer goods and service prices have seen a slowdown in growth, influenced by the strengthening of the tenge [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Inflation - Domestic factors contributing to inflation include strong consumer demand and insufficient supply capacity [1]. - The indirect effects of rising prices for essential services and fuel continue to exert pressure on overall prices [1]. - There is an increase in public and market expectations regarding future price trends, leading to heightened inflation expectations [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The current moderately tight monetary policy is aimed at controlling inflation, with a slowdown in credit and market funding growth [1]. - The stability of the tenge is seen as a contributing factor to mitigating inflationary pressures [1]. - The next adjustment of the benchmark interest rate is scheduled for March 6 [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Macro Precious Metals Weekly Report - Date: January 23, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China achieved its economic growth target, but the real - estate market still faced heavy inventory pressure. China increased the intensity of monetary policy easing. Geopolitical events such as the Greenland Island issue and the situation in Cuba added uncertainties. In the precious metals market, long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors all supported the upward trend of precious metals prices, with different expectations for the price ranges of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in 2026 [4][13][23] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Review 1.1 Economic Situation - China achieved its 2025 economic growth target. Real GDP grew 5% year - on - year, the same as in 2024. Nominal GDP slightly exceeded 140 trillion yuan, with a 4% year - on - year growth, the lowest since 2021. The GDP deflator shrank 0.96% year - on - year, a larger decline than in 2024. Final consumption, capital formation, and net exports had different impacts on GDP, with consumption's pulling effect increasing, investment's decreasing, and net exports' increasing. In Q4 2025, real GDP grew 4.5% year - on - year, and the GDP deflator continued to shrink [4] - Social consumption in China grew 3.7% year - on - year in 2025. Urban fixed - asset investment shrank 3.8% year - on - year, the first annual shrinkage since 1992. Real industrial output grew 5.9% year - on - year. The real - estate market showed signs of weak stabilization, with sales, completion, and new - start areas all shrinking, and inventory pressure remaining high although it started to ease [6][7] 1.2 Policy - In December 2025, China's social financing stock grew 8.3% year - on - year, M2 grew 8.5% year - on - year, and M1 grew 3.8% year - on - year, all with increased growth rates compared to December 2024. Since January 19, 2026, the central bank has lowered re - loan and re - discount rates, increased some re - loan quotas, and expanded the scope of policy support [10] - On January 16, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the financial regulatory authority optimized personal consumption loan and equipment renewal loan fiscal subsidy policies. On January 17, the central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [12] 1.3 Geopolitics - The Greenland Island issue: Trump appointed a special envoy to Greenland, expressed the need for Greenland for national defense, and imposed tariffs on eight European countries. The EU considered counter - measures. Eventually, Trump cancelled the tariff measures after discussing with NATO Secretary - General Rutte, but the issue remained complex [13] - The situation in Cuba: The Trump 2.0 government was looking for cooperation with insiders in the Cuban government to overthrow the Cuban regime by the end of the year, believing that the Cuban economy was on the verge of collapse [14] 2. Precious Metals Market Analysis 2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index first rose and then fell in 2025. In 2026, although some factors may strengthen the US economic fundamentals, the dollar index is expected to continue to be weak, with support levels at 95 and 90. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong in 2026, with pressure levels at 6.97 and 6.85. US Treasury yields in 2025 declined across the board, and in 2026, the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term yields falling and medium - and long - term yields showing range - bound fluctuations [15][16][18] 2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - In the spot market, the holdings of global gold and silver ETFs have increased since 2025. As of January 22, 2026, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were significantly higher than the 2024 lows. In CFTC positions, as of the week of January 13, 2026, non - commercial institutions adjusted their gold and silver futures and options positions, resulting in a decline in the gold fund net - long ratio and an increase in the silver fund net - long ratio [20][22] 2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic stimulus policies make gold prices strong. In the short - term, since November 27, 2025, multiple factors have pushed up the precious metals sector. In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $5300 - 5500 per ounce, London silver $105 - 115 per ounce, London platinum $2800 - 3000 per ounce, and London palladium $2000 - 2200 per ounce [23][25][27] 2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has fluctuated. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has weakened, the positive correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields has strengthened, the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has significantly decreased, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has increased [28][29]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan after considering 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month [1] - The total net liquidity injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan, significantly larger than previous scales, indicating a proactive approach to ensure sufficient liquidity [1] - The PBOC's actions align with the recent statements from its governor, Pan Gongsheng, emphasizing continued support for economic stability and the domestic bond market [2] Group 2 - Pan Gongsheng highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to enhance support for key strategic areas and weak links, ensuring financial institutions focus on critical projects [3] - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity and guiding overnight rates near policy levels [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 沪铜市场周报 供应充足需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 80000 130000 180000 230000 280000 330000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 2025-02-27 2025-04-27 2025-06-27 2025-08-27 2025-10-27 2025-12-27 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线高位震荡，周线涨跌幅为+0.57%，振幅2.77%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价101340元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to continue its downward trend despite the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish signals, as the lack of strong measures to support the currency keeps depreciation pressure intact [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Situation - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 30-year high, leading to a 0.2% decline in the yen against the dollar, reaching 158.74 [1]. - Strategists express differing views on whether the yen can stabilize and rebound, with some indicating that the current exchange rate is close to a critical psychological level of 160 [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite the Bank of Japan's slight hawkish tone, the absence of substantial measures means that the yen's short-term downward pressure is unlikely to reverse [2]. - Market expectations suggest that current interest rates may be too low relative to inflation levels, leading to further anticipated weakness in the yen [2]. - Some strategists believe that the Bank of Japan's recent communication indicates a potential for future rate hikes, with expectations for the next increase possibly occurring in July [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Certain strategists identify positive signals in the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, suggesting a potential bottoming out for the yen [3]. - The outlook for inflation and wages appears relatively strong, which may support a hawkish stance and further rate hikes [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance may complicate the situation for the yen, making decisive investor action challenging [3].