Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea, led by Governor Lee Chang-yong, is actively addressing the recent volatility of the Korean won and is implementing measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market amid depreciation pressures [1] Group 1: Currency Policy and Measures - The Bank of Korea has collaborated with the Ministry of Welfare and the National Pension Service (NPS) to conduct foreign exchange hedging operations to stabilize the foreign exchange market [1] - If the foreign exchange market remains unstable, the central bank will not agree to an annual outflow of $20 billion in investment funds to the United States [1] - The government is expected to make a statement later regarding the U.S. trade agreement and the foreign exchange market [1] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The recent depreciation of the won is primarily influenced by geopolitical risks and an increase in residents' overseas investments, which has intensified capital outflow pressures [1] - Despite the depreciation, Lee emphasized that the weakness of the won does not reflect the fundamental aspects of the Korean economy, which currently has ample dollar reserves [1] - The weakening won may lead to inflationary pressures, potentially prompting an interest rate hike of about 200 to 300 basis points if the policy rate is to stabilize the foreign exchange market [1]

美联储——①卡什卡利：川普的威胁实际是货币政策问题，一月份没有降息的必要。②保尔森：今年晚 些时候小幅降息可能较为合适。③褐皮书：有八个地区的整体经济活动以小幅至温和的速度增长，三个 地区报告无变化，一个地区报告温和下降。④博斯蒂克称控制通胀的挑战尚未取得胜利，需继续采取限 制性政策。⑤米兰批评外国央行决策者为鲍威尔辩护不恰当。 数据——美国11月PPI环比略微上涨；零售销售增长超出预期。去年三季度录得2023年第二季度以来最 小贸易逆差。 金银比自2012年3月以来首次跌破50大关。 1月15日 资讯分享 周三，从地缘政治热点以及川普对美联储的攻击，都促使投资者寻找避险资产。现货黄金盘中逼近4640 美元，再创历史新高，最终收涨0.92%，报4628.14美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨7.2%，报93.17美元/盎 司。 川普暗示可能暂缓对伊朗行动，油价随即短线暴跌4%。但一则关于德黑兰可能发生爆炸的新闻使美、 布两油在纽约尾盘短线拉升1.2美元。WTI原油最终收涨1.13%，报61.79美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨 1.17%，报66.35美元/桶。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - The high-level fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, starting to suppress consumption. Although it is the off-season for consumption, the current inventory accumulation speed is fast, and it is difficult to transmit prices downward in the short term. However, the macro situation remains the long - term driving force for price increases, while short - term large fluctuations due to capital disturbances need to be watched out for [6] - The procurement price of alumina in the spot market is still slightly declining. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in excess, the social inventory is increasing, and there is little support for the absolute price to rise [7][8] Group 3: Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,670 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,690 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,500 yuan/ton, closed at 24,595 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 25,005 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 777,707 lots, and the open interest was 368,960 lots [2] Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 730,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 133,565 tons, up 32,803 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 14, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,780 yuan/ton, closed at 2,800 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.28%, with a maximum price of 2,827 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,770 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 691,294 lots, and the open interest was 518,021 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 14, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 64,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, aligning with market expectations, and emphasized the need to balance economic recovery support with financial stability risks [1] - The central bank's statement removed previous language indicating a willingness to lower rates, signaling a more cautious policy stance [1] - The recent depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar was attributed to factors such as a weakening yen, rising geopolitical risks, and increased overseas investment by residents, although the central bank believes this does not reflect the underlying economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea projects that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be below 0.2%, but the strong semiconductor industry is expected to support economic growth, with export conditions remaining favorable [2] - The central bank warned of ongoing housing price risks in Seoul and surrounding areas, stating that high interest rates are not an effective tool to curb housing prices and that structural measures are needed [2] - The monetary policy committee showed divided opinions, with five members favoring maintaining rates in the short term, while one member suggested that the possibility of rate cuts within three months should remain open [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Korea announced an extension of a special loan program for small and medium-sized enterprises for an additional six months, until the end of July 2026, to alleviate financing pressures [3]

Group 1 - The Swiss franc is experiencing a narrow trading range against the US dollar, currently around 0.8014, with a downward trend since the beginning of the year, having recently dropped to a short-term low of 0.7970, a daily decline of 0.55% [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate and reiterated its commitment to actively participate in the foreign exchange market, indicating that the current expansionary monetary policy conditions are appropriate [1][2] - The stability of the Swiss franc against the euro is attributed to the SNB's foreign exchange interventions and zero interest rate policy, with the euro to Swiss franc exchange rate currently at 0.9287, down from 0.9395 at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The current monetary policy's stimulus effects are fully transmitted, with credit growth and money supply data reflecting the policy's impact, which supports mid-term price stability [2] - The SNB's reluctance to reintroduce negative interest rates is due to significant side effects on pension systems, reinforcing expectations of policy stability [2] - The "loose US, stable Swiss" policy framework has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Switzerland, driving the decline of the USD/CHF exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is in a short-term consolidation phase, with key support at the previous low of 0.7970 and resistance around 0.8020-0.8030 [3] - Recent trading volumes for the USD/CHF pair remain low, indicating a lack of clear market direction and a need for a breakout at key levels to confirm future trends [3] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is expected to maintain a range between 1.08 and 1.09, showing no clear breakout signals in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a six-month term starting January 15 [1] - In January, 600 billion yuan of six-month reverse repos are set to mature, making this operation an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month [1] - The PBOC previously conducted an 11 trillion yuan three-month reverse repo operation on January 8, indicating a consistent approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The increase in reverse repo operations is expected to support government bond issuance and encourage financial institutions to enhance credit supply [1] - The actions reflect a continued supportive stance in monetary policy, signaling the use of quantity-based policy tools to strengthen market liquidity [1]

对于美联储内部决策分歧(12月降息25基点遭三位官员反对)，卡什卡利认为，下一任主席的可信度关键 在于其在委员会中的说服力，需依靠数据和分析赢得投票，而非行政指令。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金价格在小周期内呈现较为明显的4600-4640区间波动特征，此区间内应以逢低做多、看涨回升为主 要操作思路，重点关注4600上下的支撑位置。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1030.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.59元，跌幅 0.64%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.52元/克，盘中最高触及1037.79元/克，最低下探至 1027.03元/克。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1030.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.59元，跌幅 0.64%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.52元/克，盘中最高触及1037.79元/克，最低下探至 1027.03元/克。 【要闻速递】 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利近日就美联储独立性问题发声，称特朗普政府过去一年针对美联储的行 动"本质上是关于货币政策的"。在司法部向美联储送达大陪审团传票、启动针对主席鲍威尔的刑事 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current global macro - economy is in a pattern of stagflation pressure, institutional disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Overseas, the large - scale liquidity released during the crisis response stage has led to a stagflation situation. The Fed's interest - rate decisions have been involved in political games, and the Trump tariff issue has increased global trade uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions may also disrupt cross - border trade. Domestically, China's exports showed strong resilience in 2025, and the export situation in 2026 may be optimistic [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate before the Spring Festival. The appreciation is supported by the acceleration of China's foreign trade recovery, but its rhythm will be affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [4]. - The stock index market may experience a short - term adjustment due to the regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the upward trend is expected to resume after the adjustment [5]. - The possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased for treasury bonds. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited [6][7]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [11]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate futures are expected to enter a high - level volatile state, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by factors such as export tax rebates and inventory [13][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in a high - level consolidation state, and aluminum prices may be volatile at a high level in the short term, while other non - ferrous metals also have different trends and investment suggestions [17][22]. - For oilseeds and fats, the external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction [28][30]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure. Asphalt prices may be relatively strong in the short term [31][36]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term callback risks, while gold and silver are in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall [37][43]. - In the chemical market, the pulp and offset paper markets are relatively stable, and LPG, PTA - PX, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [46][55]. - In the black market, steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials, and iron ore, coking coal, coke, and ferroalloys also have their own market characteristics [64][68]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, cotton prices may have short - term callback risks, sugar prices are under pressure in an oscillating state, and apples, dates, and logs have different market trends [69][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. The country's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In December, exports of rare earths increased by 32% year - on - year. Overseas, there are issues such as the Fed's interest - rate decision disputes, the Trump tariff case, and geopolitical tensions [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate before the Spring Festival. China's foreign trade recovery in December was significant, with exports in US dollars increasing by 6.6% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7%. The US dollar index is in a high - level volatile state, and the RMB's appreciation is also affected by the central bank's regulation [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% aims to cool down the over - heated market. The short - term market may fluctuate, but the upward trend is expected to resume [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts are less likely. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited due to the stock market's upward trend [6][7]. - **Container Shipping for European Routes**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. Spot freight rates are declining, and there are both negative and positive factors. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [9][11]. 3.2 New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has significantly corrected. The spot market is in a "not - off - season" state, but the futures price may enter a high - level volatile state. Short - term investors are advised to realize profits and wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices are in a wide - range volatile state. The demand for photovoltaic exports may drive short - term demand, but polysilicon inventory is high. In the medium term, polysilicon prices may decline, while industrial silicon has support at low prices [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium has increased, but the transaction is stagnant. The futures price is in a high - level consolidation state. It is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan, and enterprises can consider constructing option strategies [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price may be volatile at a high level in the short term due to factors such as the Trump tariff and the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to rise [22]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, lead, etc. have their own market characteristics, such as zinc being in a strong and volatile state, and tin having upward momentum [23][26]. 3.4 Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The soybean meal market may be strong in the near term and weak in the far term, and the rapeseed meal market is in a state of weak supply and demand [28][29]. - **Fats**: The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction due to the Indonesian government's decision not to implement B50 this year. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets are affected by factors such as supply and policy [30]. 3.5 Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions caused by US sanctions. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to improved supply [31][33]. - **Asphalt**: The price may be relatively strong in the short term due to factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical tensions. The market is in a state of limited upward and downward space [34][36]. 3.6 Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustments, and the Fed's monetary policy. There may be short - term callback risks, but the long - term bullish foundation remains [37][40]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price of silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has fallen below 50. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall, but short - term fluctuations may increase [41][43]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is relatively stable, and the current situation is slightly bearish. It is advisable to wait and see and avoid chasing short positions [46]. - **LPG**: The price is supported by geopolitical factors, but the increase in PDH maintenance has a negative impact on the market. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [48]. - **PTA - PX**: The demand feedback is intensifying, and the short - term upward momentum is weakening. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, but the PTA processing fee increase space is limited [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand feedback is negative, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price may be affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [51][53]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is relieved in the short term due to increased device maintenance. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of device maintenance plans [54][55]. - **PE**: The spot price is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the long term, and the demand may decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene market is in an oversupply situation and follows the cost - end fluctuations. The styrene market is strong due to factors such as exports and macro - news, and attention should be paid to export increments and supply returns [57][58]. - **Urea**: The price may rise in the first half of 2026 due to the agricultural demand peak season, but there may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to hold long positions [59][60]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and the price is restricted by high - level inventory. Glass has high - level inventory in the middle - stream, and the spot pressure exists. Caustic soda is in a state of weak reality, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [60][62]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise due to cost factors and device maintenance. Attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts on the cost - end and PDH device changes [62][63]. 3.8 Black - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar demand is seasonally weak, and the supply of steel products is increasing. The prices of steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials [64][65]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to support continuous large - scale production increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [65][66]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading has improved, and the basis has strengthened. The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [66][67]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply pressure is high, but the prices are supported by the cost - end. Silicon iron is starting to accumulate inventory, and silicon manganese has a large inventory base [67][68]. 3.9 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The price is in a high - level consolidation state. There may be short - term callback risks due to factors such as the squeeze on domestic cotton consumption by imported yarn. The callback amplitude may be limited [69][70]. - **Sugar**: The price is under pressure in an oscillating state. Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [70][72]. - **Apple**: The price is rising strongly. The market has a problem of shortage of delivery products, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [73][74]. - **Date**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the long term [74][75]. - **Log**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the short - term bottom is confirmed. The price may have a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to spot price changes and post - holiday demand [75][77].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数大致平开，早盘多窄幅波动，午后受消息影响，股 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 指回落，期债有所上涨，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.0 ...

昨夜美联储官员表态存在分化，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示他认为鲍威尔所面临的调 查实际上是货币政策问题，一月议息会议并为存在太大降息的必要性。特朗普派系的美联储理 事米兰则延续鸽派表态，他提出美国应当放松监管以支持美联储进一步宽松，并重申今年需要 降息 150 个基点。 通胀数据方面，昨夜公布的美国 PPI 数据超预期，美国 11 月 PPI 同比值为 3%，高于预期的 2.7%， 与前值相符，美国 11 月 PPI 环比值为 0.2%，符合预期。显示其经济情况的零售数据则具备韧 性，美国 11 月零售销售环比值为 0.6%，高于预期的 0.4%和前值的-0.1%。 【策略观点】 当前国际金价稳步上涨，而银价则加速上行，波动幅度显著放大，其充分体现了美联储独立性 的受挫和现货层面的供不应求格局。但从波动率角度来看，当前策略上建议持有在手多单，新 开仓多单或空单均存在较大风险，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 980-1100 元/克，沪银主力合约 参考运行区间 19050-25000 元/千克。 贵金属日报 2026-01-15 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022 ...