Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zinc has upward elasticity [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 24,400 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,175 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 131,273 lots, a decrease of 14,813 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 10,031 lots, a decrease of 1,448 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 118,558 lots, a decrease of 3,135 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 228,807 lots, a decrease of 649 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -40.12 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.45 US dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,844.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.46 yuan/ton. ZN00 - ZN01 was -45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc continuous three was -1,779.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.12 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 30,300 tons, a decrease of 747 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 8,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 27,758 tons, a decrease of 4,958 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,077 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 24,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 23,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. He also mentioned maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, strengthening market supervision, and establishing a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions in specific scenarios, and continuing to use two monetary policy tools to support the capital market [2] - The final value of the US Q3 real GDP quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, and the core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the next week's interest - rate meeting [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2][7] - There is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year [2][7] - The People's Bank of China aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and enhance supervision of various financial markets [2][7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2][7] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, aligning with expectations [2][7] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [2][7] Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.01% [3][8] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.7 trillion yuan [3][8] - U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.91% to 23436.02 points [3][8] Investment Strategies - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy are expected to support consumer recovery [9] - The current trend of policy adjustment is cooling, and there may be opportunities to focus on the IC index for entry [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical risks and changing monetary policies, has led to significant price increases in the domestic gold market, with major brands reaching around 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. Group 1: Price Surge - On January 21, 2026, the price of gold jewelry in China jumped to 1498 yuan per gram, with some brands exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. - The international gold price has reached a historic high of 4842 USD per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as the threat of increased tariffs by the U.S. on Europe, have heightened global risk aversion, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Changes in monetary policy, including interest rate declines and shifts in the Federal Reserve's leadership, are supporting the macro environment for gold [5]. - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves to counter credit crises, which is bolstering gold prices [5]. - Tight supply of physical gold is also contributing to the price increase, with analysts suggesting that the bullish trend in gold may continue [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The high gold prices have led to a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with a decline in gold jewelry consumption by 32.5% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 24.55% [7]. - Consumers are increasingly valuing gold for its financial attributes rather than just as a decorative item, with younger generations favoring innovative designs and materials [7]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The high gold prices are reshaping the jewelry industry in China, with a focus on hard gold becoming popular among younger consumers [9]. - Traditional gold markets are maturing, and brands are leveraging craftsmanship and cultural elements to attract high-spending consumers [9]. - Collaborations with popular IPs have emerged as a trend, appealing to younger demographics [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach 4800 USD per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, while Citic Securities is more optimistic, forecasting prices could hit 5000 USD per ounce [11][13]. - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank demand will continue to influence the gold market [13].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - **Rebar**: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 23, 2026, and the trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It will also maintain the stability of the financial market and support the capital market [5]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [5]. - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [5]. - Six major state - owned banks will implement the fiscal discount policy for personal consumer loans, and the actual interest rate for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range [6]. - China will conduct a pilot program to extend the second - round land contracts by 30 years on a provincial - wide basis this year [6]. - From January 1, 2026, a project to provide pension service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people will be implemented nationwide [6]. - The 2026 national college entrance examination will be held on June 7 and 8, and efforts will be made to optimize the discipline and major settings [6]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rates of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively [7]. - The US 2025 Q3 GDP final annualized quarterly growth was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [7]. - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900/oz to $5,400/oz [7]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil futures fell. London base metals generally rose [7][8]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different performances. The short - term downward pressure of IF2603 and IH2603 increased slightly, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed a slight upward trend [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will be mostly in a strong or moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, the stock index futures will be in a strong oscillation [13]. Gold Futures - On January 22, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures had a slight downward oscillation. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased slightly [29]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be in a moderately strong oscillation and will reach a record high. On January 23, AU2604 will be in a strong oscillation and may reach a new high [29][30]. Silver Futures - On January 22, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, AG2604 will be in a moderately strong oscillation and may reach a new high [33][34]. Copper Futures - On January 21, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures had a slight downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 22, CU2603 will be in a weak oscillation [39]. Tin Futures - On January 22, the main contract SN2603 of tin futures had a downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, SN2603 will be in a strong oscillation [42]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 22, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, its main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, LC2605 will be in a wide - range strong oscillation [48][49]. Coking Coal Futures - On January 22, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures had a slight upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [51]. Glass Futures - On January 22, the main contract FG605 of glass futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [57][58]. Soda Ash Futures - On January 22, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [62]. PTA Futures - On January 22, the main contract TA605 of PTA futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [68]. PVC Futures - On January 22, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [70]. Methanol Futures - On January 22, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [71]. Soybean Meal Futures - On January 22, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a weak oscillation [73]. Natural Rubber Futures - On January 22, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a moderately strong oscillation [76].

Macro Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [5][31] - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations [5][31] - U.S. President Trump stated that the Greenland agreement will grant the U.S. "all desired military access," and warned of "strong retaliation" if European countries sell U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [5][31] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [5][31] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both in line with expectations [6][31] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.09% to $4938.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 3.86% to $96.22 per ounce, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland [7][33] - The market for silver remains tight, with resilient investment demand, and both gold and silver are experiencing high volatility with prices in a wide fluctuation range [7][33] - The long-term core drivers for precious metal prices remain stable, influenced by factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [7][33] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between $4650 and $4900 per ounce, while for COMEX silver it is between $90 and $100 per ounce [7][33] Copper - LME copper closed at $12840.0 per ton, up 0.62%, with ongoing tightness in copper supply due to strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and delays in the expansion of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [8][34] - The overall downstream consumption of copper is showing signs of stabilization after a price correction, although January's consumption remains weaker than seasonal trends [8][34] - The market is advised to monitor U.S. import volumes, which may impact future supply tightness expectations [8][34] Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $3137.5, up 0.64%, with the Shanghai market maintaining a strong position around 24,000 yuan [11][37] - The market is experiencing a phase of active stocking ahead of the holiday, with aluminum ingot inventories increasing moderately [11][37] - The expected trading range for aluminum prices is between 23,500 and 24,300 yuan [11][37] Lead - LME lead rose by 0.44% to $2033.5 per ton, while Shanghai lead remained stable at 17100 yuan per ton, with the market showing a weak demand outlook [12][38] - The lead market is expected to face further accumulation, with domestic lead inventories continuing to decline [12][38] - The anticipated trading range for lead prices is between 17,000 and 17,800 yuan in Shanghai and between $1950 and $2100 in London [12][38] Zinc - LME zinc experienced fluctuations, closing at $3233, up 1.83%, with market sentiment boosted by the PBOC's comments on liquidity [16][41] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [16][41] Nickel - LME nickel closed at $18100, up 0.7%, with ongoing high volatility in prices due to supply reduction narratives from Indonesia [17][41] - The expected trading range for nickel prices is between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan in Shanghai [17][41] Tin - LME tin rose by 2.66% to $52660 per ton, while Shanghai tin closed at 417250 yuan per ton, with supply recovery expectations amid cautious market sentiment [20][44] - The anticipated trading range for tin prices is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and export demands [20][44] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded by 0.92% to 1684 yuan per ton, with steel mills increasing their coking coal inventories [46] - The market is expected to experience weak supply and demand dynamics in the short term due to high inventory levels in the steel industry [46] Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices increased by 2.40% to 50515 yuan per ton, supported by supply reductions and improved fundamentals [47] - The expected trading range for polysilicon prices is between 49000 and 51000 yuan [47] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 2.55% to 168780 yuan per ton, with a decrease in inventory and production [48] - The market is expected to perform better than anticipated in Q1, with prices likely to remain strong [48]

Copper - Copper prices showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the US Q3 GDP was revised slightly upward to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years, while core PCE inflation remained at 2.9% [3][12] - Domestic demand for copper is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, leading to increased divergence within the industry [3][12] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the medium-term upward trend in copper prices is expected to remain unchanged [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.7% to $18,100 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.28% to ¥142,730 per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 168 tons to 284,496 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 432 tons to 41,584 tons [4][13] - Indonesia's nickel ore production is expected to decline by 10% to 15% compared to last year, which may impact market dynamics [4][13] - The short-term nickel price is supported by Indonesian policies, but potential quota supplements and high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at ¥2,676 per ton, up 0.26% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also increased, with AL2603 closing at ¥24,100 per ton, up 0.77% [6][14] - The overall market is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price may face a short-term correction despite strong support at high levels [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract closing at ¥8,825 per ton, up 1.03% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract closing at ¥50,515 per ton, up 2.4% [7][15] - The market is transitioning from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures from supply-demand imbalances and regulatory scrutiny [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 2.55% to ¥168,780 per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by ¥6,000 to ¥164,500 per ton [8][16] - The supply side saw a weekly production decrease of 388 tons, while social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 783 tons to 108,898 tons [8][16] - The market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term, with ongoing demand for replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival [8][16]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2]. - US President Trump said he would take "major retaliatory measures" if European countries sold US assets due to his tariff threats [2]. - In mid - January, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 0.3% from the previous period [2]. - The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and a 0.3% increase year - on - year, with new energy retail reaching about 800,000 and a penetration rate of about 44.4% [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include crude oil, coking coal, coke, silver, and styrene [3]. - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals rose 38.08%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.87%, soft commodities rose 2.69%, non - ferrous metals rose 24.46%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 9.34%, energy rose 2.13%, chemicals rose 9.52%, grains rose 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.08, - 0.11, 0.09 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | | | CSI 500 | 1.12 | 11.71 | 11.71 | | | S&P 500 | 1.16 | 0.44 | 0.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.37 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | German DAX | - 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.41 | 4.84 | 4.84 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.11 | 2.08 | 2.08 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.32 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.01 | - 0.02 | - 0.02 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.53 | 2.53 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.43 | 5.43 | 5.43 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.47 | 11.92 | 11.92 | | | LME Copper | 0.06 | 2.12 | 2.12 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.90 | 24.26 | 24.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.51 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 34.38 | 34.38 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and other commodities, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China, led by Pan Gongsheng, will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1] - There is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, with an emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity [1] Technology Development - Fudan University researchers have successfully developed "fiber chips," achieving large-scale integrated circuit preparation within flexible polymer fibers, with a transistor density of 100,000 per cm [1] - The technology allows for efficient interconnection of transistors and other electronic components, enabling both digital and analog circuit functions [1] Company News - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO review status has changed to "inquired" on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - Yushu Technology clarified that its actual shipment of humanoid robots in 2025 will exceed 5,500 units, with over 6,500 units expected to be produced [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments are promoting the participation of retail pharmaceutical companies in centralized drug procurement [3] Individual Company Performance - CATL launched a mass-produced sodium-ion battery for light commercial vehicles, capable of operating in extreme cold conditions [4] - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year, with revenue projected at 9.203 billion yuan, a 25% increase [4] - Strong One Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58% to 71% in 2025, driven by strong orders from major clients in the communication network and AI computing sectors [5] - Changda Technology plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a functional IC packaging substrate project to enhance its competitiveness in the high-end integrated circuit field [6] - Founder Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 67% to 98% in 2025, focusing on high-value business orders in AI servers and high-speed optical modules [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].