Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - The global manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.3, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[6] - The production index rose by 2.3 percentage points to 51.3, while the demand index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.1, showing significant recovery in both supply and demand[25] - Emerging markets saw a substantial recovery, with a 1.2 percentage point increase to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone[31] Group 2: Regional Insights - China's manufacturing PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold, with new orders rising by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2[55] - The US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.0, still in contraction territory, with new orders experiencing the largest decline in three months[86] - India's manufacturing sector showed strong performance, while the EU manufacturing sector improved moderately, and ASEAN manufacturing weakened slightly[6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current phase of tariff relief is expected to provide temporary support to global manufacturing, but future tariff policies remain uncertain[7] - The pace of interest rate cuts in the US will continue to be constrained by inflationary pressures[7] - Risks include domestic and international economic fluctuations, changes in macro liquidity regulations, and potential oversupply of raw materials leading to price declines[7]

巴西政府同步启动《经济互惠法》，计划从8月1日起，对美国商品加征50%关税，并已将牛肉、橙汁等传统出口转向中东、南亚市场。面对特朗普的关税施 压，巴西直接用退信、申诉、提税三招反制，卢拉更是在电视讲话中强硬表态：没有美国巴西也能活。 关税信连遭3招反制，特朗普恼羞成怒，将不通知直接对120国加税？ 特朗普本想通过关税收割全球，但让他没想到的是，中国为首的一众发展中国家不买单，即便是美国的盟友，也不买账。如今特朗普设下的所谓90天关税期 限已到，他也决定主动出击，既然不来找美国谈判，那就直接加税。 据联合早报消息，特朗普在接受媒体采访时宣布，将对没有收到关税信函的120多个国家，直接征收15%或20%的统一关税。白宫官员私下透露，特朗普的 转变源于两方面压力，第一，巴西、日本等国的强硬态度打破了特朗普"逐个击破"的预期；第二，美国国内通胀高企与供应链紊乱，迫使特朗普加速推进关 税议程。 值得注意的是，这一波率先掀桌的是巴西。日前，巴西外交部以"内容失实且冒犯"为由，正式退回特朗普的关税威胁信函，成为首个公开拒绝美国单边要求 的国家。巴西总统卢拉在采访中直指美方数据漏洞：过去15年，美国对巴西贸易顺差累计达到41 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

Group 1 - The resilience of the US stock market is highlighted despite the recent announcement of new tariff policies, driven by fiscal spending and strong earnings outlook for large-cap stocks [1][2] - The limited exposure of S&P 500 companies to import costs due to current exemptions and the belief that recent tariff rates are not final contribute to the market's stability [2] - The new tax legislation, referred to as the "Big and Beautiful" tax bill, is expected to support large-cap indices by reducing effective cash tax rates and benefiting sectors like technology and healthcare [3] Group 2 - There has been a significant improvement in corporate earnings expectations, with revisions moving from -25% in mid-April to +3% currently, which is expected to support market performance [4] - The anticipated earnings growth for the S&P 500 index in Q2 is projected at 4% year-over-year, with the "seven giants" expected to see a net profit growth of 14%, significantly outpacing other companies [4] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and their impact on profit margins remain a concern, with potential adjustments in earnings guidance depending on trade negotiations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October, and OPEC will complete a 2.2 - billion - barrel supply restoration in September [3]. - Globally, oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories rose significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Trump is pressuring Russia to stop the war and may impose "secondary tariffs" on countries that purchase Russian oil. He also plans to supply Ukraine with more weapons. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia [3]. - Analysts believe that Trump's subsequent statement on Russia may not have a significant impact on crude oil. Previous sanctions had little impact on oil flows, and supplying weapons through NATO is unlikely to have a significant impact on oil supply [3]. - Trump's tariff policy is unlikely to affect US imports of gasoline and diesel. Energy products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are expected to be exempted, and the new tariffs on Canada and Mexico will not cover goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, including energy [3]. 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the US during the week of July 4th, crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase) [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - During the week of July 4th, the EIA gasoline inventory in the US was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [3]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased this week, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [3]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. Policy - wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October [3]. - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories increased significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - **Nickel**: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].

Group 1 - Copper prices have increased by 12% since last Tuesday, while copper inventories have decreased by 1.5% [1] - The U.S. relies on imports for half of its refined copper, with 90% coming from other regions in the Americas, primarily Chile [1] - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports aims to boost domestic copper supply and reduce reliance on foreign sources [1][2] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, U.S. copper prices surged by 15%, while prices in the UK and China actually declined [2] - The expectation of the tariff has led companies to build inventory to avoid future costs associated with the tariff [2] - The response of copper supply to these tariffs is expected to be slower compared to gold, indicating different fundamental factors will drive copper prices in the coming months [3]

近期，多数美联储官员认为本月底将维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%至4.5%不变。6月会议上，美联储官员预 计今年晚些时候可能降息两次，投资者则普遍预计9月会议将开启降息。不过，也有少数官员主张更早降息，认为 特朗普政府不断变化的进口关税政策对物价的影响可忽略不计。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周就表示，货币政 策可能过于紧缩，可考虑7月降息，且强调其利率观点与政治无关。 尽管特朗普一直向美联储施压要求尽快降息，甚至曾批评鲍威尔工作"糟糕"，但近日在被问及是否会解雇鲍威尔 时，特朗普称无相关计划。美联储官员则始终专注于经济数据本身。 哈马克称，当前利率已非常接近中性利率水平，经济展现出韧性且运行良好。在她看来，除非劳动力市场出现明 显疲软，否则降息缺乏依据。目前通胀率虽从疫情严重时超7%降至3%以下，但持续在该区间徘徊，未达美联储 2%的目标，这是暂不考虑降息的主因。她强调，需等待已出台新政策对通胀的影响进一步明晰。 对于7月29日至30日举行的FOMC会议，哈马克秉持开放态度，表示将依据经济数据和讨论方向做决策。但她明确 指出，就业方面已达成目标，通胀却未达标，因此有必要维持限制性货币政策，以确保通胀降至2 ...

9号当天，日本首相石破茂在一场街头演讲中，谈及美国对日本加征关税一事，直言强调，"这是一场关乎国家利益的战斗，我们决不能被小瞧"。即便美国 是日本的盟友，在关税谈判中，日本政府也必须理直气壮的表明自身立场，守护日本必须守护的东西。从石破茂的这番讲话就不难看出，日本方面显然没有 在关税谈判上让步的意思。 为什么石破茂敢这样跟特朗普政府硬刚呢？简单分析来看，主要有两点：首先，特朗普所要的东西太多，并且直接关乎日本的经济命脉，石破茂政府很难做 出让步。比如，特朗普政府想要日本在汽车出口和农业上做出让步，这一点石破茂政府就很难办到。目前，汽车产业是日本经济的主要支撑产业，如果石破 茂政府任由美国在汽车上加征关税，那对于日本来说，受影响的绝不止汽车这一个行业。另外，农业更是日本执政党的基本盘，这关乎到石破茂政府的政权 稳定，他就更不可能在这件事上让步了。要知道，本月20号，日本就将进行参议院选举，若石破茂向美国让步，他的首相位置很可能保不住。 面对特朗普的关税威胁，日本还有2张"王牌"可打，这2张"王牌"是什么？特朗普急于对贸易伙伴加征关税，这背后又说明了什么？ 近日，特朗普对他的关税政策进行一番调整，主要包括三个方面 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]