外国投资者正转向澳大利亚，选择这个常被忽视的市场作为贸易战的避风港，因为它拥有廉价的货币和 有韧性的经济。 虽然很难量化到底有多少资本流向澳大利亚，因为澳大利亚证券交易所不发布及时的资金流数据，但这 已体现在股票登记数据中。 自美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布"解放日"关税以来，澳大利亚S&P/ASX00指数是发达国家市场基准中表 现最好的指数之一，上涨3.1%，仅次于德国DAX指数。如果考虑同期的美元下跌，以美元计算的涨幅 是该数字的两倍多。 资金流入澳大利亚之际，全球资产配置者正在寻找美国股票的替代品，并显示出一种相对不寻常的对以 国内市场为主导的公司的追捧，而不是离岸买家历来青睐的全球矿业公司。 目前尚不清楚外国投资者具体购买了哪些非金融类股票，但不受关税影响的澳大利亚超市Coles今年迄 今上涨18%，澳大利亚电信公司Telstra上涨14%。 瑞银悉尼分公司负责澳大利亚和新西兰股票的董事总经理Clinton Wong表示："我们看到……全球基金 经理正在增持澳大利亚股票。" 他拒绝量化资金流或详细描述买家，但表示可能的原因是澳大利亚是一个庞大且流动性好的市场，受美 国10%关税的影响相对较低。 他说："我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that despite a significant rebound in the stock market since April, driven by optimistic corporate earnings and strong macroeconomic data, there is skepticism regarding the sustainability of this optimism due to ongoing trade tensions and the lack of a concrete trade agreement [1][2][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen 13% since its low of 4982 points on April 8, indicating a strong market performance, but experts warn that investors may be overly optimistic about the resolution of trade issues [1] - Analysts from BCA Research and Goldman Sachs express concerns that the market's current pricing reflects an overly favorable outlook on economic growth, with expectations of growth exceeding 1% this year, which contrasts with more cautious predictions [3] Group 2 - The articles highlight that President Trump has indicated progress in trade negotiations, yet no formal agreements have been reached, and he has emphasized the lack of urgency in signing any deals [3][4] - Trump's upcoming press conference is anticipated to announce a significant trade agreement with a major country, potentially the UK, marking the first agreement since the imposition of high tariffs on multiple countries [4] - The discussions around trade agreements involve various proposals from the U.S.'s top trading partners, with indications that a deal could be reached soon, although the specifics remain unclear [3][4]

国际博弈持续升级。欧盟贸易委员谢夫乔维奇发出最后通牒，若关税谈判破裂，将于8日公布针对美国 的新一轮反制清单。当前欧盟对美商品关税覆盖面已达70%，若进一步扩大至97%，将引发更大规模贸 易战。值得注意的是，美国4月对欧盟首轮反制关税已暂缓至7月实施，但双方谈判仍陷僵局。 美国加征关税政策正引发连锁经济震荡，从港口到工厂、从企业到消费者，多领域遭受直接冲击。洛杉 矶港作为全美最繁忙的货物枢纽，本周业务量同比锐减35%，20%预定货轮被迫取消，码头工人面临工 作量腰斩的困境。卡车司机日均运输量从4-5个集装箱骤降至2-3个，港口配套的咖啡馆客流量断崖式下 跌，店主直言"80%顾客是港口工作者，现在连早餐时段都门可罗雀"。 这场由关税引发的经济震荡正在重塑商业生态。企业被迫在涨价保利润与维持市场份额间艰难抉择，消 费者面临物价上涨与商品短缺双重压力，港口工人则成为政策博弈的直接牺牲品。当总统声称"关税让 美国富有"时，洛杉矶港咖啡店主发出灵魂拷问："就业机会在哪里？我们只看到工作岗位在消失。"这 种政策目标与现实后果的割裂，正成为美国经济面临的最严峻考验。 玩具行业成为重灾区。美国市场80%进口玩具依赖中国制造， ...

"春节过后，集装箱航运市场进入货运淡季，现货运价持续走低。尽管各大航运公司多次尝试上调运费，但均未能 成功。目前，现货价格仍在低位徘徊。市场预期从之前对旺季的期待，逐渐转为对当前疲软态势的关注。这种转 变进而导致集运指数期货价格持续低迷。"银河期货航运及创新团队负责人贾瑞林接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表 示。 与此同时，一德期货分析师车美超向记者指出，美国复杂多变的关税政策引发全球贸易衰退预期，贸易流通受阻 直接冲击海运市场，致使美国航运路线热度急剧下降。为应对这一局面，船司调整航线布局，将部分运力转移至 欧洲航线，进一步加剧了欧洲航线运力供给过剩的状况。此外，自3月起，相较于去年同期，现货运价对应的集运 盘面估值偏高。在市场现实表现不佳的交易逻辑下，空头情绪集中宣泄，推动集运指数估值持续下调。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 5月8日，受头部航运公司下调运费价格影响，早盘集运指数（欧线）期货（下称"集运指数期货"）价格再度下 跌，现货市场持续疲软，对EC2506期价形成持续压制，期货价格一路下探至1234元。业内人士指出，若运费价格 持续走低，将触及成本线。数据显示 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements reflect a "superior" attitude towards China and other countries, claiming he is "not just managing America, but the world" [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary echoed Trump's views, blaming China for the trade imbalance, stating that China's exports to the U.S. are five times greater than the reverse, and calling for China to ease tensions [3] - China's response highlighted that the trade war was initiated by the U.S., warning that there are no winners in a trade war and urging for dialogue based on equality and respect [3] Group 2 - The trade war has significantly impacted American farmers, with losses exceeding $20 billion due to reduced exports to China, as China diversifies its imports from other countries [5] - Trump's administration has faced increasing criticism from the public, including former supporters, with 52% of voters believing he has overstepped his authority [5] - The perception of Trump's governance as a threat to the system of checks and balances has led to growing dissent within the Republican Party [5] Group 3 - Trump's belief in "managing the world" is increasingly being rejected by the American public, with historical patterns suggesting that countries acting with hegemony will eventually decline [7]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global recession risks have returned to market concerns, with mixed signals from economic data and financial indicators [1] - The likelihood of a U.S. recession is estimated at 50%, indicating a severe situation [1] - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, with economists acknowledging a higher risk of recession compared to three months ago [6] Group 2: Consumer and Investor Sentiment - U.S. consumer confidence fell to a near five-year low in April, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [1] - The Eurozone investor confidence index rebounded after a significant drop but remains in negative territory [1][2] Group 3: Commodity Market Signals - Oil prices have dropped approximately 16% this year, currently around $60 per barrel, signaling a slowdown in economic growth [6] - Copper prices, often seen as an economic indicator, have rebounded from near one-year lows but remain below March peaks [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Corporate Earnings - Stock markets have rebounded, with German stocks nearing historical highs and U.S. and Japanese stocks rising over 15% from last month's lows [13] - Despite strong first-quarter earnings, companies like Electrolux and Volvo have lowered their forecasts due to uncertainty, indicating potential challenges ahead [13][14] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Government bond markets reflect concerns over economic slowdown but do not indicate a significant rise in recession risks, as central banks are expected to act quickly with rate cuts [11] - Expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have been adjusted following the recent tariff pause [11]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - **Basis**: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]

在全球贸易的漫长链条中，有一种资源正悄然决定着未来技术命运的走向。那就是稀土元素，这些神秘的金属正攥在中国的手中，成为国际博弈中一张势 不可挡的王牌。这场关税战的战场似乎不仅仅限于传统的收支平衡，更折射出国家间对尖端科技控制权的争夺。而在这个博弈中，特斯拉的掌舵者马斯克 成了一个意外的焦点。 稀土：这场战役的主角美中关税大战打响后，形势急转直下，中国捏住了美国的"软肋"——稀土资源，成为了反制的利器。稀土，虽然名字里带 个"稀"字，但实际上并不稀少，只是提取它的过程，就像炼金术一般复杂，而中国正是这门技艺的头号玩家，掌握了全球90%的市场份额。 于是，当稀土出口受限，特斯拉的人形机器人"擎天柱"项目便如同被扼住了咽喉。想象一下，马斯克原本信心满满地准备在人形机器人领域大展拳脚，却 因为稀土磁体供应告急，不得不四处奔走。这不仅是特斯拉的困境，也是美国在高科技领域遇到的棘手难题。 马斯克的两难选择在这样的大环境中，马斯克别无选择，只能开始与中方接触，以求得出口的豁免。这里，有一个有趣的场景：马斯克承诺稀土磁体不会 被用于军事用途。他甚至开玩笑地拍着胸脯保证，只为人形机器人服务！但这一保证背后，是一次不容小觑的风险 ...

针对特朗普的这一说法，近日，商务部新闻发言人表示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通 过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税 战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 据海外网报道，美国总统特朗普再度对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压，要求美联储降息。这已经是特朗普连续两天就利率问题催促鲍威尔 了。此前，特朗普已经多次敦促美联储降息。而鲍威尔在多个公开场合强调，美联储将保持政策独立性，称当前美国的关税政策令美联储在制定 货币政策时极为棘手。鲍威尔的讲话十分明确，关税政策导致美国经济走势"怪异"，美联储不会急于降息，究竟是保持高利率抗通胀，还是更快 降息托底经济，美联储可能需要留足观察的时间窗口。 特朗普（资料图） 与此同时，美国总统特朗普在前几日的白宫新闻发布会上明确表示，对中国商品征收的关税虽然不会降至零，但会大幅度下降。特朗普声称，他 会对中国"非常友好"，不会采取强硬态度。就在特朗普对中方示好之前， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand is seasonally rising, and the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level. However, the purchasing willingness of traders remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the real - estate market remaining weak, the future demand may cool down. Considering the signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with rb2510 expected to trade between 3070 - 3140 [2]. - **For热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. With signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with hc2510 expected to trade between 3190 - 3250 [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand has a seasonal increase, inventory is low and decreasing, but downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle and trader purchasing is weak [2]. - **热卷**: Supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked [6]. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3220, and the basis is 122, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3270, and the basis is 53, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 508.6 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 282.86 million tons, with a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, considered neutral [6]. Market Chart Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, considered neutral [6]. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. Factors Analysis - **利多 (Positive factors)**: For both products, production and inventory are at low levels, and consumption is increasing month - on - month. For热卷, the demand remains higher than the same period [2][3][7]. - **利空 (Negative factors)**: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and the terminal demand is weak and lower than the same period. For热卷, the downstream demand outlook is pessimistic [3][8].