投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3050.01 点(周环比+2.70%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4628.14 点（周环比-1.08%），深证综指收于 2511.55 点（周环比-0.31%），上证综指收于 3990.49 点（周环比-0.18%），科 创板收于 1361.23 点（周环比-3.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 128.48 公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策端主动去产能或持续 推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业 产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目 前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润，且 ...

行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 生猪养殖专题系列 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母猪 还是仔猪等前瞻指标看，直至 2026 年上半年供应压力仍持续。在行业负债率和流动比率等指 标相比上一轮周期改善有限的背景下，行业产能去化或进一步加速。与此同时，行业产能调控 政策或持续对头部企业产能进行限制，与亏损去产能形成合力，或使本轮产能去化较 2021、 2023 年更彻底。2025Q3 畜禽板块基金重仓比例降至 0.98%，处于历史低位，重点推荐低成 本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业，推荐组合：【牧原股份、温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团】。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 生猪养殖专题系列 2] 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母 猪还是仔猪等前瞻指标看， ...

截至2025年11月14日 10:32，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨0.28%，成分股罗牛山(000735)上涨3.40%， 天马科技(603668)上涨2.79%，生物股份(600201)上涨2.64%，华英农业(002321)上涨2.17%，瑞普生物 (300119)上涨1.78%。养殖ETF(516760)上涨0.28%，最新价报0.71元。 消息面上，近期生猪养殖行业持续处于亏损状态，猪价已跌破多数企业现金成本线，仔猪销售也陷入深 度亏损，反映出养殖户对后市的悲观预期。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、 温氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、梅花生物(600873)、新希望(000876)、大北农(002385)、生物股 份(600201)、圣农发展(002299)、天康生物(002100)、立华股份(300761)，前十大权重股合计占比 65.58%。 广发证券指出，当前猪周期正处于下行期的筑底阶段，叠加"反内卷"背景，产能去化大幕有望开启，行 业去化节奏或逐步加快。在供给压力仍存的背景下，具备成 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PE**: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in pig prices in China, leading to reduced profits for major pig farming companies and highlighting the challenges faced by the industry due to oversupply and high debt levels [4][5][24]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Pig prices have reached a new low, with the average price for commodity pigs in October at 11.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 32.73% for Muyuan Foods [8][12]. - National pig prices dropped to 10.89 yuan/kg in October, marking the lowest level since 2019, with an overall year-on-year decline of approximately 30% [13][15]. - Major pig farming companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant drops in net profits for Q3 2025, with Muyuan's net profit down 55.98% and Wens' down 65.02% [18][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The primary reason for the price drop is a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by lower-than-expected pork consumption and an increase in supply due to panic selling by farmers [24][25]. - The industry is facing a phase of oversupply, with the number of breeding sows remaining high at 40.35 million, which is significantly above the levels seen in 2019 [26]. Group 3: Financial Health of Companies - Major companies are focusing on reducing debt and improving financial health, with Muyuan's debt ratio decreasing to 55.5% and Wens' to 49.41% as of Q3 2025 [29][30]. - Smaller farming operations are struggling with higher costs and risks of financial instability, as their production costs exceed 6.5 yuan/kg compared to the larger companies' lower costs [22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While pig prices have stabilized at low levels, analysts remain cautious about a significant rebound in prices due to anticipated increases in supply from expanded production [28]. - The industry is under pressure to rationalize production capacity, with regulatory bodies encouraging a reduction in breeding sow numbers to stabilize prices [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices has raised concerns in the pig farming industry, with prices falling below 6 yuan per kilogram, but there are indications that this downward trend may be slowing down [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Although supply still exceeds demand, the situation is not dire enough to cause a panic sell-off, as market sentiment remains relatively stable [3]. - The willingness of farmers to hold prices is increasing, especially with the upcoming consumption peak season, making it unlikely for them to exit the market at this time [3][6]. Seasonal Factors - The onset of winter is expected to boost pork consumption, as seasonal products like cured meats and sausages will soon be in demand [6]. - However, there is a risk that the market may misinterpret the seasonal demand as a strong recovery, while the reality is that maintaining prices above 6 yuan is already a challenge [7]. Factors Influencing Price Recovery - Two main factors could drive pig prices up: the willingness for secondary fattening and consumer demand [8][12]. - Secondary fattening can temporarily reduce supply, which may lead to price increases, but the current market sentiment is cautious, and the motivation for farmers to engage in this practice is not strong [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - Recent holiday seasons have shown weak consumer demand, indicating that the expected seasonal consumption boost may not materialize as strongly as in previous years [12]. - Economic constraints are leading consumers to be more cautious with spending, impacting overall pork consumption [12][15]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The reduction in pig production capacity is slow, and while there are efforts to improve efficiency by replacing low-yield sows with high-yield ones, the actual supply pressure remains significant [15]. - The focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement means that even with a decrease in the number of breeding sows, the effective supply may not decrease proportionately due to increased productivity [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 5, most equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; more commodities fell, with metals continuing relatively weak performances [11][14] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe), egg, and rapeseed meal, while the top three decliners are poly-silicon, fiberboard, and bitumen [12][13] - Most equity indices in China's financial futures rose, and CGB futures fell [14] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 5, most equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; more commodities fell, with metals continuing relatively weak performances [11][14] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are SCFIS(Europe) (up 4.1% with open interest up 10.2% month-on-month), egg (up 1.9% with open interest up 4.7% month-on-month), and rapeseed meal (up 1.6% with open interest up 8.7% month-on-month) [12] - The top three decliners in China's commodity futures are poly-silicon (down 2.4% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), fiberboard (down 1.8% with open interest up 3.4% month-on-month), and bitumen (down 1.6% with open interest down 1.7% month-on-month) [13] - Most equity indices in China's financial futures rose, with IM increasing by 0.8% and IC increasing by 0.5%; CGB futures fell, among which TL fell by 0.1% [14] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On November 5, live hog increased by 1.6% to 11945 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, it is still in the period of high-capacity fulfillment. Anti-involution policies continue, and breeding profits remain in a state of loss, which is conducive to capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [19][22] - On the supply side, in the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has restrained the sentiment toward secondary fattening; leading hog enterprises have maintained a relatively fast pace of hog sales. In the medium term, the national capacity of sows capable of reproduction remained at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of new piglets born from January to September continued to increase month-on-month. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has begun to show signs of reduction [20] - On the demand side, as temperatures drop, the price ratio of fattened hogs has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, leading hog enterprises are actively selling hogs, resulting in a decline in the average weight of hogs sold; the sentiment toward restocking for secondary fattening has weakened to some extent [21] 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Iron Ore - On November 5, iron ore decreased by 0.3% to 776 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, while disturbances from domestic and international macro factors as well as policy expectations still exist. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [27][31] - On the supply side, the shipment volume of overseas iron ore mines has decreased month-on-month, while the arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. Recently, there are still hurricanes forming in Southeast Asia, which may disrupt the rhythm of shipment and arrival at ports [28] - On the demand side, the average daily output of sampled molten iron has dropped significantly. Tangshan region has been obviously affected by environmental protection-related production restrictions, and some steel mills have begun annual maintenance of blast furnaces due to profit factors. The peak demand season is gradually coming to an end, which may limit the room for molten iron output to recover [29] - In terms of inventory, steel mills have reduced spot purchases, leading to a decline in their imported iron ore inventories. Meanwhile, port inventories have accumulated significantly, and the pressure on fundamentals has increased to some extent [30] 1.2.2 Steel Rebar - On November 5, steel rebar decreased by 1.2% to 3024 yuan/ton. Inventory levels remain relatively high year-on-year. After the short-term cooling of macro sentiment, the market is expected to face downward pressure for adjustment. Attention should be paid to disturbances from macro policies and iron ore supply [36][40] - On the supply side, recently, steel mills' profit margins have improved marginally. However, affected by environmental protection-related production restrictions and the increase in seasonal maintenance of steel mills, molten iron output has declined from a high level. Some steel mills have resumed production of rolling lines, leading to a continued increase in the output of the five major steel products, among which the output of construction steel has increased significantly [37] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel rebar is acceptable. The destocking speed of steel products has accelerated, and the fundamentals have continued to improve. Nevertheless, the situation where inventory levels are relatively high year-on-year remains unchanged. As the peak demand season for steel rebar is drawing to a close, the demand outlook remains relatively cautious [38][39] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the additional 24% tariff rate on imports from the United States will be suspended for another year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on imports from the United States will be retained [45][46] - On November 5, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum in Shanghai and delivered a keynote speech [46] - The EU will investigate Anglo American's plan to sell its nickel mining business to MMG. China supports Chinese companies in conducting practical cooperation under the principle of mutual benefit and hopes relevant parties will honor the commitment to openness [46] 2.2 Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily turnover of the northbound Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect and the southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect reached RMB 206.4 billion and HKD 125.9 billion respectively, up 67% and 229% YoY respectively [47]