高盛闭门会-用宏观比较分析 ai 泡沫，和 90 年代的差异说 明泡沫尚未破裂 20251119 摘要 当前人工智能投资虽增长迅猛，但规模和持续性尚处早期阶段，与 1990 年代末电信泡沫时期相比，利润率维持高位，杠杆指标总体健康， 宏观失衡风险较低，为投资热潮持续发展提供空间。 分析师预测人工智能带来的生产率提升，其潜在价值在 5 万亿至 19 万 亿美元之间，但自 2022 年 11 月以来，与 ChatGPT 相关的 AI 公司市 值已增加超过 19 万亿美元，表明市场已提前消化了大部分 AI 繁荣的价 值。 尽管估值偏高，但宏观经济和资本支出环境依然支持 AI 投资趋势，周期 性角度前景良好，预计在劳动力市场稳定的前提下，美联储可能采取宽 松政策，重要失衡尚未显现，为周期持续提供动力。 大量融资活动转向私人资本和信贷领域，增加了风险监控难度。应加强 对非公开融资活动的数据收集与分析，关注宏观统计数据，如总体盈利 能力、杠杆和信贷指标，以全面洞察经济和企业部门的杠杆水平。 Q&A 当前的人工智能热潮与 1990 年代的市场泡沫有何异同？ 当前的人工智能热潮与 1990 年代的市场泡沫存在一些显著差异。首 ...

"如果股市总市值占GDP的百分比落在70%到80%的区间，买股票对你来说可能会有很好的结 果。如果接近200%，就像1999年和2000年部分时间那样，那就是在玩火。"巴菲特如是警 告。 如今美股的"巴菲特指标"已飙至240%上方，远高于互联网泡沫时期的高点约150%。从这个角 度看，目前美股处于前所未有的高估状态，股票市值增长速度远超美国经济的实际成长。 这只是全球众多市场的"冰山一角"。近期表现疲软的不只有美股，欧股、日股等也"跌跌不 休"。全球大型科技公司遭到抛售，再次引发了火热的争论：AI能否创造足够的收入或利润来 支撑其在基础设施建设方面的巨额投入？ 身 处 AI 热 潮 中 心 的 人 们 也 对 此 忧 心 忡 忡 。 Alphabet 首 席 执 行 官 桑 达 尔 · 皮 查 伊 （ Sundar Pichai）表示，鉴于人工智能领域估值飙升且投资规模庞大，市场对泡沫的担忧日益加剧，如 果这波人工智能热潮崩塌，没有任何一家公司能毫发无损。 全球股市"灰犀牛"狂奔，但无人知晓何时会彻底失控。 全球股市缘何下跌 近期，全球主要股市普遍表现疲软，美股、欧股与亚洲市场出现同步下跌。中航证券首席经 济 ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's Q3 earnings report exceeded Wall Street expectations, indicating strong demand for its AI chips and a robust outlook for the tech industry amidst concerns about an AI bubble [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $57.01 billion, surpassing the expected $55.09 billion, with a net profit of $31.91 billion, a 65% increase from $19.31 billion in the same period last year [3][4]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.30, slightly above the expected $1.28 [3][5]. - The company anticipates Q4 revenue to be around $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.66 billion [6]. Business Segments - Data center revenue was the primary source of income, totaling $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, with GPU products contributing $43 billion [4][5]. - Gaming revenue reached $4.3 billion, reflecting a 30% growth [4]. - The automotive and robotics segment generated $592 million, up 32% year-over-year [4]. Market Position and Outlook - NVIDIA's GPUs are in high demand, with the latest Blackwell series chips selling exceptionally well, leading to sold-out cloud GPUs [5][6]. - The company is viewed as a key player in the AI sector, with major clients including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle [5]. - Following the earnings report, concerns about an AI bubble have eased, positively impacting semiconductor ETFs and related stocks [6].

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌"如果股市总市值占GDP的百分比落在70%到80%的区间，买股票对你来说可 能会有很好的结果。如果接近200%，就像1999年和2000年部分时间那样，那就是在玩火。"巴菲特如是 警告。 如今美股的"巴菲特指标"已飙至240%上方，远高于互联网泡沫时期的高点约150%。从这个角度看，目 前美股处于前所未有的高估状态，股票市值增长速度远超美国经济的实际成长。 这只是全球众多市场的"冰山一角"。近期表现疲软的不只有美股，欧股、日股等也"跌跌不休"。全球大 型科技公司遭到抛售，再次引发了火热的争论：AI能否创造足够的收入或利润来支撑其在基础设施建 设方面的巨额投入？ 身处AI热潮中心的人们也对此忧心忡忡。Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）表示，鉴 于人工智能领域估值飙升且投资规模庞大，市场对泡沫的担忧日益加剧，如果这波人工智能热潮崩塌， 没有任何一家公司能毫发无损。 全球股市"灰犀牛"狂奔，但无人知晓何时会彻底失控。 近期，全球主要股市普遍表现疲软，美股、欧股与亚洲市场出现同步下跌。中航证券首席经济学家董忠 云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，这一走势主要由三重 ...

与此相对，Hugging Face 首席执行官克莱姆・德兰格提出了不同见解。他认为当前不存在全面的 AI 泡沫，而是特定的"大语言模型泡沫"，并预测这个泡沫 可能在明年破裂。他指出，未来趋势将是从追求通用大模型转向开发更多专用化的小型模型，这种转变将更符合实际商业需求。 【太平洋科技快讯】11 月 19 日消息，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 首席执行官桑达尔・皮查伊近日在接受 BBC 采访时指出，当前人工智能投资热潮中存在一定程 度的"非理性"成分。他警告称，若 AI 泡沫破裂，所有企业都将受到波及，无一能够幸免，即便是拥有全栈技术优势的谷歌也不例外。这番表态正值 AI 公司 估值持续飙升之际，引发了市场对行业过热的高度关注。 然而，AI 的快速发展也带来了严峻挑战。皮查伊特别指出，AI 已占全球电力消耗的 1.5%，这种"巨大"的能源需求可能成为经济发展的瓶颈。他承认公司气 候目标因此受到影响，但承诺仍将坚持 2030 年净零排放目标。在就业方面，他认为 AI 将是"最具变革性的技术"，善于运用 AI 工具的人将在各个职业中脱 颖而出。 皮查伊将当前状况与 1996 年互联网泡沫时期的"非理性繁荣"相提并论 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in AI infrastructure spending, with Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle collectively exceeding $300 billion by August this year, indicating a supercycle in AI investments [1][5] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia are investing heavily in AI startups, with a recent partnership with Anthropic involving up to $15 billion, potentially doubling Anthropic's valuation from $180 billion to over $350 billion [3][4] - OpenAI has also seen its valuation soar past $500 billion after receiving substantial investments from tech giants, with agreements for over $1 trillion in computing power purchases this year [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the sustainability of AI valuations, as the market experiences significant fluctuations, evidenced by stock declines in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon on November 18 [4][5] - Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai warned that if the AI bubble bursts, no company would be immune, drawing parallels to the irrational exuberance seen during the internet bubble [5] - The current AI investment wave is described as a "remarkable moment," but it is acknowledged that both rational and irrational factors are influencing the market [5]

当地时间11月18日，谷歌母公司Alphabet正式发布新一代AI模型Gemini 3，其首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）将该模型定义为"行业顶 尖"，但与此同时，他在接受BBC新闻独家专访时直言，当前AI投资热潮中存在非理性成分，若AI泡沫破裂，没有任何一家公司能独善其身。 据介绍，Gemini 3在核心能力上实现显著突破，皮查伊在发布声明中提到，该模型"在推理能力上达到行业领先水平，可精准把握问题深度与细微 差别"，且能更好解读用户需求背后的语境与真实意图，用户无需反复提示即可获取所需结果。 更受关注的是，围绕OpenAI展开的1.4万亿美元复杂交易，与其不足千分之一投资规模的年度预期营收形成鲜明反差，市场普遍担心这会重蹈上世 纪90年代末互联网泡沫"先飙升后崩盘"的覆辙，届时企业破产、员工失业、民众储蓄受损等问题或再度出现。 当被问及谷歌能否抵御AI泡沫破裂的冲击时，皮查伊坦言"没有一家公司可以幸免，包括我们自己"，但他同时强调，公司"从芯片到YouTube数 据，再到AI模型与前沿科研"的全栈技术布局，能帮助其更好应对潜在的市场动荡。 AI发展的现实挑战也被皮查伊提及。他表示，A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].

智通财经APP注意到，富达国际和安联全球投资的基金经理表示，尽管存在泡沫担忧，但AI开发者雄心勃勃的支出计划和快速用户增长表明，其全球股票涨 势将持续。 富达国际的投资组合经理Joseph Zhang认为，在本周晚些时候英伟达公司备受关注的财报发布之前，全球半导体股最近的下跌可能是暂时的。除非AI资本支 出或使用量放缓，否则他预计此类回调后会出现反弹。"这场盛宴仍处于早期阶段，"在富达共同管理超过100亿美元资产的Zhang表示，"过早离场将是错误 的。" 随着软银集团和彼得.蒂尔等投资者减少风险敞口，对泡沫的担忧困扰着市场。然而，基金经理的观点表明看涨者并未退缩，而杰夫.贝索斯新AI风险投资等 重要承诺也提供了支撑。支持者将这股热潮视为一代人一次的技术革命，因此很难将其仅仅视为另一种股票趋势而忽视。 在经历了六个月的上涨后，在美上市的半导体股票在11月遭遇获利了结。一项美国芯片指数本月下跌9.4%，料将创下自3月以来最差单月表现，而一项亚洲 同类指数也下跌约7.3%——这迫使许多投资者思考AI交易是否已失去动力。"我认为对于AI，总的来说我们可能有点过于乐观了，"Pictet Asset Managemen ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on technology stocks, driven by concerns over high valuations, economic uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. major indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropping over 1%, and the S&P 500 falling by 0.83% [3][4]. - The technology sector faced significant losses, with the "seven giants" of tech down nearly 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.3% [3][4]. - Individual stocks such as Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Amazon saw declines of nearly 3%, over 5%, and over 4% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Analysts attribute the sell-off in tech stocks to multiple factors, including persistent concerns over inflated AI valuations and a cooling expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5][6]. - A recent Bank of America survey indicated that investor cash allocation has dropped below a critical threshold, triggering a "sell signal" for stocks [8][9]. - The survey revealed that 45% of respondents view a potential AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, with 53% believing AI stocks are already in a bubble [9]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Investors are reassessing economic growth prospects, which is putting broader pressure on financial markets [6]. - Concerns about the Federal Reserve not implementing a third rate cut in December are increasing, contributing to ongoing pressure on risk assets [6][7]. - The anticipated capital expenditures by major tech companies for AI infrastructure are projected to reach $371 billion this year, with a total need of $5.2 trillion by the end of the decade [6].