一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月16日08时20分 山金期货黑色板块日报 报告导读： 消息面上，以色列袭击伊朗，原油价格大幅拉升，带动全球商品价格回升，黑色商品也受到影响。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹 产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表 观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 ，但价 格也有可能充分的反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价探底后回升，出现企稳信号 操作建议： 轻仓做多，如果后市期价有效跌破近期低点 ，多单可及时止损离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2969 | 1 | 0.03% | -6 | -0.20% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月13日08时12分 报告导读： 消息面上，中美两国经贸谈判达成框架，但分歧依然存在。我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存 下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来， 需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 。从技术上看，期价短暂反弹后回落，大概率后市仍有可 能二次探底 操作建议： 维持观望。待二次探底后逢低做多 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2968 | -23 | -0.77% | 9 | 0.30% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3080 | -28 | -0.90% | 3 | 0.10% | | | 螺纹 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂保板材供应为主，螺纹钢产量延续下降，供应有所收缩。相应 的需求表现同样不佳，高频指标偏弱运行，淡季特征有所显现。总之，供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面 表现偏弱，钢价继续承压，但低库存格局下现实矛盾相对有限，预计后续走势延续震荡寻底态势， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a downward bias respectively. It is advisable to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has improved and steel prices have rebounded from low levels [2]. - Amid the game between expectations and reality, rebar prices are expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and the performance of demand should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a downward bias respectively. The view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the improvement of market sentiment and the rebound of steel prices from low levels [2]. Market Driving Logic - After the China - US presidential call, market sentiment improved, and the ferrous metals rebounded from low levels. However, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are weakening. Steel mills mainly ensure the supply of plates, and rebar production has been continuously decreasing. The corresponding demand is also weakening, and concerns about seasonal weakening persist. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, in the context of expected supply increase, low demand, weakened cost support, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the industry's fundamentals are weak, trapped in a dilemma of "cost collapse + lagging capacity clearance", and prices are continuously hitting new lows. In the short term, there is still no positive driving force, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and explore the bottom. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk caused by short - covering and position reduction [2]. - For polysilicon, since May, many enterprises have carried out maintenance or postponed resumption of production, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is generally low. The current polysilicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price trend is highly uncertain. As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies, and there is a lack of demand driving force in the short term. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and range operation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7460 yuan/ton and closed at 7340 yuan/ton, a change of (- 190) yuan/ton or (- 2.52)% compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. As of the close, the main contract 2505 held 226,069 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 28, 2025, was 64,286 lots, a change of - 340 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9000 - 9400 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7900 - 8000 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 7900 - 8000 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also decreased individually. The silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable today, and the price of 97 silicon also decreased, with the purchasing intention improving [1]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11400 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. A monomer enterprise in North China plans to start a full - line shutdown for maintenance on June 3, with a maintenance period of about 15 days [1]. Strategy - In the short term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and explore the bottom. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk caused by short - covering and position reduction [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 mainly fluctuated. It opened at 35,360 yuan/ton and closed at 35,100 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.23% compared with the previous trading day. The main contract held 79,868 lots (80,800 lots on the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 153,272 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quotation of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 26.00, with a month - on - month change of 3.88%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.95GW, with a month - on - month change of - 2.50%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,500.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, with a month - on - month change of 7.10% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [4][6]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.25 (- 0.01) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 (0.01) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and range operation is recommended. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to be neutral; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations, there are no specific strategies [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is gradually shifting to a narrative structure of "weak supply and demand", with the industrial off - season gradually materializing. The overall trading logic is that after the supply of furnace materials becomes abundant, the upstream continuously transfers profits downstream, and the loosening of costs causes the valuation center of the entire sector to gradually move downward [3][35]. - For different sub - industries in the black metal sector: - **Rebar**: It is recommended to wait and see. The industry is in a state of "weak supply and demand", with supply having a downward trend, demand temporarily stable but with potential risks, and inventory showing seasonal destocking [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - selling idea remains. The off - season pressure is gradually emerging, and the long - position abandonment of near - month contracts has led to price drops [35]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate. Supply and demand are both in a relatively neutral state, with some positive factors in cross - month spreads [80]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon in Yunnan is expected to resume production during the wet season, while the production of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline slightly, and it is expected to continue this trend. The trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met, so the pace of production cuts will be slow. The raw material cost is expected to become more abundant, and the support from the raw material side may be absent [7]. - **Demand**: Neutral. There is no significant weakening in demand for now, as inventory can still be reasonably destocked and exports remain high. However, market expectations are poor, and the cost - side valuation is constantly collapsing [7]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Seasonal destocking can still be maintained, the total inventory level is low, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures are at a discount. As of Friday, the rb2505 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 64, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week [7]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low - level range, but the long - process production of steel mills still has profits [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are meager profits in the industrial chain production links, with relatively low relative valuation and still room for compression in absolute valuation [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Recent macro - economic benefits have had limited impact on the black metal sector, and the weak industrial narrative remains the main pricing driver [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Considering the uncertainty of trade wars and the lack of clear administrative production - restriction information, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and exposure management and appropriately rotate inventory; for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is high; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive spot - futures arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bearish. The pressure of the off - season is gradually materializing, with the apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing and pig iron output slightly declining. Many steel mills are choosing to conduct timely maintenance as the off - season approaches [35][48]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines are facing increased shipment pressure, with prices continuously falling. The domestic - foreign price difference remains large, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [35][55]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, with the daily average output increasing slightly. Although coking profits have declined, the decline in the cost of coking coal has not affected coke supply, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price cut [35][56]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream buyers are controlling the receipt of goods, while upstream producers are facing increased shipment pressure and passive inventory accumulation. The market expectation of a second - round price cut is strengthening [35][59]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round price cut for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round cut. The warehouse - receipt costs for different scenarios have been calculated [35]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profitability is still good, while coking profits have declined, but the decline in coking coal costs has not affected coke supply [35]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The black chain index continues to decline, hitting new lows. The short - selling idea remains for single - side trading, but previous short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, appropriately close previous short positions and maintain a high - level short - selling idea later; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage between the JM9 and JM1 contracts [35]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments have shown a seasonal rebound and are currently stable. The overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential significant increase in shipments in May and June due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rushes of some mines [80]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline but remains at a high level. It is expected that the demand in May will not decline significantly, and port inventories will experience a slight destocking [80]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. With stable arrivals in May and stable pig iron output, port inventories will experience stable and slight destocking [80]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still good, so pig iron output can remain at a high level in the short term [80]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With pig iron output at a high level, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [80]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: Bullish. Near - month contracts have high demand due to high pig iron output, while far - month contracts are affected by the expectation of flat steel production control and face greater supply pressure. The valuation of the 9 - 1 spread has a large upward space [80]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production - restriction factors, the furnace material sector has no new stories in May, and iron ore is in a weak - fluctuating state. After May, if the fundamentals of steel weaken, steel mills' spontaneous production cuts are needed, and the contraction of steel mill profits is a necessary condition [80]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling when the price is above $100; for arbitrage, continue to hold the remaining positions of the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [80]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. There are few production - cut news for manganese silicon this week, and it is expected to resume production in Yunnan during the wet season next month. Ferrosilicon production is at a very low level, and due to poor profits, production is likely to further decline [123]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Pig iron output has slightly declined, but steel mills still have good profits [123]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. The warehouse receipts and factory inventories of manganese silicon have decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon have decreased, and the factory inventory has rebounded [123]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis of manganese silicon has significantly declined and then strengthened, with near - month contracts showing strong performance. The basis of ferrosilicon has declined and then strengthened, and the near - month contracts have changed from strong to weak [123]. - **Cost**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. For manganese silicon, the short - term price increase on Thursday was mainly due to capital behavior, and the supply of Australian ore from South32 is expected to increase, leading to an oversupply of manganese ore in the long - term. Recently, the price of coking coal has dropped significantly, and there may be a round of price cuts for metallurgical coke. For ferrosilicon, the price of semi - coke small materials has decreased by 30 yuan/ton this week, but the settlement electricity price in Ningxia may increase slightly next month [123]. - **Valuation**: Low. The valuation of ferroalloys is at a relatively low level [123]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. It is currently a macro - vacuum period [123]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of manganese silicon may continue to be under pressure due to the expected resumption of production in Yunnan, while the price of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits, and it is considered to be in the bottom - range [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, conduct cross - month positive arbitrage [123].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia due to the rainy season affecting shipping, leading to a slight increase in nickel ore prices and stronger cost support [3] - Rising ore prices drive up the cost center of integrated production lines, providing solid support at the lower end [3] Bearish Factors - Loosening marginal supply of pure nickel, combined with high overseas inventories and stable domestic inventories, increasing upward pressure [3] - Slow recovery of downstream stainless steel demand, limited support from the new energy sector, and continuous losses of nickel sulfate enterprises [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Weak supply and demand fundamentals make it difficult for nickel prices to move up or down, maintaining a short - term oscillating pattern. It is recommended to focus on range - band operations and option strategies [3] Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased slightly, with weekly declines ranging from -0.10% to -0.21%. The LME nickel 3M price also dropped by -0.09% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 19.69% to 87,677 lots, and the open interest decreased by 25.3% to 47,440 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.49% to 22,418 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 671.11% to -1,735 yuan/ton [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) showed mixed trends, with some contracts declining by -0.50% to -0.65% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 17.99% to 109,100 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.93% to 117,183 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 140,425 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 12.06% to 790 yuan/ton [4] Spot Nickel - The prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, electrowon nickel) showed minor fluctuations, with changes ranging from -0.04% to 0.04% [4] Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons [4] - **LME Nickel Inventory**: The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 tons to 198,636 tons [6] - **Stainless Steel Social Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons [6] - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [6] Chart Information Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - The report provides charts of the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel (3 - month) futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts over time [8][9] Nickel Supply and Inventory - Charts show the average price of nickel spot, China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB), and China's port nickel ore inventory by port over time [11][12][13] Nickel Iron - Charts present the average price of high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia (Ni≥14%, arrival - tax - included), China's nickel iron monthly production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production over time [16][17][19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Charts display the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors over time [21][23][24] Stainless Steel - Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory over time [26][27][29]

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 8150.0 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 8200.0 CNY and a low of 8075.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.63% [1] - Supply is showing a slight increase in the north and a decrease in the south, with overall changes being minimal. Although there are expectations for improved demand in organic silicon and aluminum alloys, the weakening demand in the photovoltaic sector is likely to continue putting pressure on the core consumption flow of polysilicon, leading to high inventory levels in the industry [1] - New production capacity rumors from major manufacturers in Xinjiang have emerged, but the situation remains unclear. The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to decrease by about 0.2 thousand tons month-on-month in May, leading to a continued contraction in the essential procurement of industrial silicon [1][2] Group 2 - The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with production increasing in the south and decreasing in the north. The demand side remains sluggish, and there are expectations for continued contraction in polysilicon demand. If production in the southwest increases, the risk of inventory accumulation in the industry will rise, further pressuring silicon prices [2] - The current market for industrial silicon is showing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with expectations of a weak and fluctuating trend. It is recommended to maintain short positions in the short term [2]