Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the first time in 2026, with an adjustment window opening on January 20, 2023, due to international crude oil price fluctuations indicating a rise above the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has seen international crude oil prices initially rise and then fall, but the average price has increased compared to the previous cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 2.01% as of January 16, 2023, suggesting a potential retail price increase of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the retail price for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel may rise by approximately 0.07 yuan per liter if the adjustment is implemented [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that the wholesale prices for both gasoline and diesel have been declining, with 92 gasoline averaging 7279 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) and diesel at 5994 yuan/ton (down 1.54%) as of January 16, 2023 [4]. - The supply side shows an increase in gasoline production while diesel supply is decreasing, leading to a divergence in market trends, with gasoline demand expectations improving but facing inventory accumulation, while diesel demand is weakening due to seasonal factors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence short-term international crude oil prices, with OPEC+ halting production increases, suggesting ongoing support for oil market supply [4]. - Geopolitical factors remain a primary driver for the international oil market, but their impact is considered short-term and may not alter the overall downward trend in oil prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market will be more affected by U.S. economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical situations. In the short term, the influence of news will weaken, and the market will maintain a strong and volatile trend with reduced fluctuations. Gold long - positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff in the U.S. and the exchange's position - limit measures have eased capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline and then buy on dips, or sell out - of - the money options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - Under the influence of strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, platinum will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with a narrowing range. Platinum futures are recommended to be traded with high - selling and low - buying around the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium performs weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1032.32 yuan/gram on January 16, down 2.88 yuan (-0.28%) from January 15 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 22483 yuan/kilogram on January 16, down 182 yuan (-0.80%) from January 15 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 610.05 yuan/gram on January 16, up 1 yuan (0.16%) from January 15 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 469.35 yuan on January 16, down 9.25 yuan (-1.93%) from January 15 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4601.10 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19.40 dollars (-0.42%) from January 15 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 89.05 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 2.27 dollars (-2.46%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2342.90 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 72.90 dollars (-3.02%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1846.50 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19 dollars (-1.02%) from January 15 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4599.04 dollars/ounce, down 16.48 dollars (-0.36%) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 90.13 dollars/ounce, down 2.26 dollars (-2.45%) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2301 dollars/ounce, down 85 dollars (-3.56%) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1755 dollars/ounce, down 51 dollars (-2.82%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1031.09 yuan/gram, down 2.83 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 22641 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan (-0.19%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 602 yuan/gram, up 5 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.23, up 0.05 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 158, up 139 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.90% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 51.15, up 1.05 (2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 45.92, up 0.24 (0.53%) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.27, down 0.03 (-2.02%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.03 (2.14%) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.24%, up 0.07% (1.7%) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.59%, up 0.03% (0.8%) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, up 0.03% (1.6%) from the previous value [1] - U.S. dollar index was 99.37, up 0.03 (0.03%) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9674, up 0.0043 (0.06%) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 100053, down 99 (-0.10%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 626843, down 11556 (-1.81%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36135901, up 3000 (0.01%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 429156441, down 4225669 (-0.98%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18823797, down 14274 (-0.08%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 120632557, down 2571966 (-2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1086, up 10.87 (1.01%) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16073, up 11.28 (0.07%) from the previous value [1]

新华财经北京1月19日电上周（1月12日至16日当周）国际现货黄金震荡走高，当周上涨85.67美元或 1.9%，连续第二周收阳。 分析来看，随着围绕美联储独立性、关税走向及中东局势的不确定性升温，地缘紧张与美国国内政治动 荡交织，金银向上突破，再度刷新历史新高。 展望新的一周，特朗普有关关税和格陵兰岛等地缘局势的表态仍引发市场高度关注。此外，美国PCE数 据公布在即，美联储货币政策的动向也仍是贵金属市场的焦点。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡，金银再创历史新高 俄乌冲突仍在延宕，美国在1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动之后近期又对伊朗频频发出威胁，加 上格陵兰岛局势，整体地缘局势呈现收紧状态。这推动上周一国际金银跳空高开，并在日内震荡走高。 地缘紧张局势无疑是导致避险资金持续流入贵金属并推高贵金属价格的重要原因。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡使得贵金属市场获益明显。上周初，金价将历史高位刷新到4642.85美元／盎 司；白银表现更为亮眼，当周高点至93.70美元／盎司，年度累计涨幅达到近30%的水平。 戏剧性的是，上周后半周，地缘局势带来的利多突然发生变化。随着特朗普表态将对伊朗局势"拭目以 待"之后，地缘局势出现明显降 ...

国土安全部部长诺姆要求市长划定"和平抗议区"。ICE行动已波及索马里、Hmong及墨西哥裔等移民社 区：圣保罗一Hmong男子仅穿短裤被持枪特工带走;威尔马一墨西哥餐厅三员工被用餐后逮捕。 今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1050附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1045.16元/克，涨 幅1.18%，最高触及1050.40元/克，最低下探1018.78元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 据两名美国官员透露，因明尼苏达州移民驱逐引发抗议升级，五角大楼已命令驻阿拉斯加第11空降师约 1500名士兵(擅长寒区作战)做好部署准备，应对可能扩大的暴力局势，目前尚未确定是否实际出兵。 特朗普上周四威胁，若当地无法制止抗议者针对ICE特工的行动，将援引《叛乱法》派兵。自1月7日移 民母亲蕾妮·古德被ICE特工射杀后，明尼阿波利斯与联邦执法对峙加剧。市长弗雷警告军事介入将恶化 紧张，称"不需要更多联邦特工，我们很安全"。 若派兵，特朗普可能援引《叛乱法》或以保护联邦财产为由(如去年洛杉矶部署海军陆战队)。除现役部 队，五角大楼或动用国民警卫队快反部队。明尼 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that gold should not be chased immediately, and investors should wait for a pullback before entering the market [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including tariffs imposed by Trump on eight European countries and Iran's declaration of a "full war" status, have led to a bullish sentiment in gold and silver, with gold reaching a high of 4690 and silver at 94 [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is in an upward phase, with a potential target of 4800 if it breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, while a pullback could see prices drop to around 4600 or 4550 [5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have shown volatility, with the Shanghai gold contract (2606) hitting a low of 1025, and the expectation is to wait for a pullback to buy, with key levels at 1040 and 1025 [6] - Silver has formed a strong support level around 86, and the outlook remains bullish, with expectations for silver to reach 100, while waiting for adjustments to enter trades [6] - The oil market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with support at 58 and resistance at 62, suggesting a cautious trading approach around these key levels [7]

具体走势上，金价自周初高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点4512.88美元，之后反弹走强拉升，突破之前高点，之后多头动力减弱，并处于高位 震荡，于周三录得当周高点4642.63美元，周五一度回撤，收复当周大部分涨幅至4536.55美元，但最终触底回升，收于4594.07美元，相对于前周收盘价 4509.95美元，周振幅129.75美元，收涨84.12美元，涨幅1.865%。 张尧浠：黄金支撑因素此消彼长、调整仍都视为多头机会 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度反弹走强收涨，延续前周多头动力，并刷新历史高点，虽有所回撤获利了结，但多头仍占据优势，后市仍有望继续走强进一 步刷新高点。 影响上，周初受到地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担 忧。助力金价突破4600美元关口； 之后，虽然一度触及当周高点，但由于芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，加上获利了结。以及美国11月零售销售和生产者物价指数（PPI）表现强劲，减弱 了多头动力，再加上地缘局势缓和，近期稳健的美国就业数据支撑了美元，并使市场对美联储进一步降息的预期推迟至6月。一度打压金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent US-Europe tariff war on gold and silver prices, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their potential effects on market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff War and Geopolitical Tensions - The US has announced tariffs on eight European countries, escalating trade tensions and leading to a retaliatory response from Europe [1][3]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to significantly influence gold and silver prices, with historical data showing that previous tariff actions led to substantial price increases [3][5]. - The ongoing conflict over Greenland symbolizes broader territorial and resource disputes, which could further destabilize European unity and the Eurozone [5]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Technical Analysis - Gold prices are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching $4,700 and potentially $5,000 before the Lunar New Year, while silver may hit the $100 mark [5][10]. - Current market conditions indicate a bullish trend for both gold and silver, with key support levels identified for trading strategies [7][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve actions, as these factors will heavily influence market movements [7][9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold suggests a bullish trend, with targets set at $5,200 for a small bull market and up to $6,200 for a super bull market [10]. - Silver is expected to maintain a strong position, with targets of $100 to $120, reflecting a solid market sentiment [10].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 5978 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨 （-10），华南瓶片价格 6020 元/吨（-90）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1233 手至 6.02 万手，空头持仓减少 2854 手至 6.13 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.53 万吨，环比-0.94 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.2%，环比-2.03%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5588 元， 环比-3.7 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-98 元/吨，环比+67 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 18, 2026 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG Part - Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. Although the supply in the Middle East remains tight, there is still supply pressure after the impact of fog at US terminals weakens. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, the downward drive is significant. [3][4] - The lowest deliverable product may switch as the spread between Shandong civil and ether - post C4 widens. Near the cancellation month, attention should be paid to the change in the number of warehouse receipts. [4] Propylene Part - After the rapid rise of spot prices, the upward drive weakens. The tight - balance pattern of propylene is difficult to change next week. Although the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing high - priced propylene may weaken, the rigid demand for production provides strong support, so propylene is expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern. [6][7] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The lowest deliverable product is still Shandong civil gas, and the spread between civil and ether - post C4 has widened to 100 yuan/ton. [10][13] - Propane prices maintain a moderately strong trend, with the FEI index and related import costs showing an upward trend. The spot premium further increases, and the freight rate remains stable, while the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East expands. [10][21][27] Supply - US LPG shipments to Asia are flat month - on - month, while Middle East shipments are tight. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons (+0.1%), with 21.7 tons of civil gas (-0.1%) and 16.7 tons of ether - post C4 (-0.1%). Propane imports decrease by 0.2 tons month - on - month. [39][43][49][63] Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rates decline, while MTBE operating rates remain flat. LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, with a slight de - stocking of civil gas refinery inventories. Port inventories in East China, Shandong, and South China decline month - on - month, while Fujian accumulates inventory due to concentrated arrivals. [80][82][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The cost - end propane is firm, propylene prices rise strongly, and PDH profits fluctuate and recover. Downstream prices continue to rise, but the spread between propylene and powder returns to the loss range. International and domestic propylene prices rise month - on - month, and the import window is partially opened. [115][117][118] Balance Sheet - PDH and MTO operating rates decline month - on - month, and the powder profit is compressed, leading to a decline in its operating rate. The supply is expected to tighten gradually as the Jinneng PDH and Lianyungang Shenghong MTO are expected to undergo maintenance. The demand is supported by the rigid procurement of PP powder, and the situation is expected to improve in January. [139][159] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.2% (-0.7%). Refinery operating rates remain stable, while cracking and PDH operating rates decline. MTO operating rates also decline, but profits are recovering. [170][190][195] - The import volume of propylene increases by 0.96 tons (7.21%) month - on - month, and the import profit shows an upward trend. [204] Demand - The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, and acrylonitrile decline, while the operating rates of n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH increase. The profit performance of PP shows process differentiation, and the profit of PP powder returns to the loss range. PO prices rise strongly, and the company's profitability improves significantly. [211][231][243][273] Downstream Inventory - PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and powder inventory all decline. The inventory of acrylonitrile plants and ports shows different changes, and the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port declines. [298][299][300]