Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative risk management approach adopted by downstream enterprises in the Xinjiang cotton industry through structured OTC options, specifically the cumulative purchase options used by processing company X to manage procurement costs effectively in a volatile market [1][15]. Industry Overview - The cotton industry faces structural challenges, with cotton being a core raw material for the textile industry. Price fluctuations significantly impact garment manufacturing, foreign trade exports, and agricultural planting. Recent geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and competition from alternative fibers have exacerbated market volatility, putting pressure on the stability of enterprises, particularly those in Xinjiang, which accounts for over 90% of China's cotton production [2][3]. - In 2024, domestic cotton prices exhibited notable "double high and double low" fluctuations, with prices for Xinjiang 3128B cotton ranging from 15,200 to 16,800 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase in price volatility of 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - The industry is constrained by three major pressures: high costs, high inventory, and high import dependence, alongside two weaknesses: weak demand and weak profits. The cost of planting has risen due to a 12% increase in fertilizer and pesticide prices, with average costs exceeding 2,500 yuan per mu. Processing costs have also increased by 8% to 10% due to high energy prices [2][3][4][5]. Company Case Study - Company X, a processing enterprise in Xinjiang, relies on high-quality long-staple cotton for its core products. The company faces significant profit pressure due to rigid sales prices and elastic raw material costs, leading to gross margin fluctuations of 25% to 40% [6]. - To address procurement risks during price surges, X implemented a cumulative call option strategy, allowing for flexible and low-capital risk management. The option was designed to lock in procurement costs effectively [8][11]. - The cumulative call option was executed with an entry price of 13,490 yuan/ton and a daily contract volume of 30 tons over a 19-day observation period. The mechanism allowed for double contract volume if the settlement price fell below the trigger price [8][10]. Implementation and Results - Throughout the observation period, X closely monitored daily futures prices and flexibly triggered contract executions, ultimately securing procurement rights at a cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for 270 tons of CF505 futures contracts [11][12]. - The company successfully rolled over and adjusted its cumulative call option strategy, achieving an average procurement cost of 13,340 yuan/ton for a total of 2,520 tons, effectively smoothing the procurement cost curve [12][13]. - This case illustrates the effectiveness of customized OTC options in addressing the risk management challenges faced by the Xinjiang cotton industry, enhancing the ability of enterprises to hedge against market risks and stabilize operational profits [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The spread between the 7 - 9 contracts reached a new high of 28 [3]. - With one trading day left for the 07 contract, it has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position of 10,984 lots is still large. There is a possibility of significant position - reduction on Monday, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [3]. - The hedging profit window on the market is still open, while there is no profit for long - position holders to take delivery. Fundamentally, there are no obvious changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over the past 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order conditions, for short - position exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The 7 - 9 spread reached a new high of 28. With one trading day left, the 07 contract has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position is still large. There is a risk of large market fluctuations due to significant position - reduction on Monday [3]. Spot and Basis - Multiple types of log spot prices, basis, and related data are provided, including different specifications, ports, and their corresponding prices, price changes, and basis calculations [4][7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Importers have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; macro - policies are taking effect; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker than expected and sales are slow; subsequent shipping volumes are expected to pick up [6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.35 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.99 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1.109845 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 23,277 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [7]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume from ports was 63,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,800 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.1% [7]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/m³. The spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/m³, with no week - on - week change [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/19 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月18日 | 2978. 00 | 3100.00 | 670. 50 | 1403.00 | 815. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 0. 00 | 15.00 | 5.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.03 7 | 0. 32 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.62 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | R ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 仓单小幅去化，关注近月合约交割情况 市场分析 2025年6月17日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于59720元/吨，收于59860元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨0.2%。当 日成交量为181606手，持仓量为307335手，较前一交易日增加6913手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳590 元/吨。所有合约总持仓612829手，较前一交易日减少2770手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少92035手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.44 。当日碳酸锂仓单31713手，较上个交易日减少330手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月17日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.35 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.77 万吨，下游库存为4.07 万吨， 其他库存为3.52 万吨。 碳酸锂总体供需扔偏过剩，但近期仓单持续降低，需关注07合约仓单注销后下游接仓单意愿，短期或有一定博弈。 策略 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].

Core Insights - The demand for hedging tools among enterprises has significantly increased in the first five months of 2025 due to rising geopolitical tensions and shrinking export orders, leading to a greater awareness of risk management among companies [1][2] Group 1: Hedging Demand and Trends - From January to May 2025, the demand for hedging solutions from clients of Guangfa Futures has notably risen, reflecting a shift in risk management strategies among enterprises [1] - Three new trends in hedging demand have emerged: transitioning from single commodity hedging to industry chain hedging, upgrading from passive risk management to proactive pricing, and a rapid penetration of hedging tools among small and medium-sized enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Innovative Hedging Models - Guangfa Futures has successfully assisted a rubber import-export company in adopting a pricing model based on the futures price of No. 20 rubber, resulting in a total trade volume exceeding 8,000 tons [2] - The "insurance + futures" model has been implemented in the peanut farming sector in Henan, providing price protection for over 6,000 farmers and covering nearly 20,000 tons of peanuts [2] Group 3: Challenges in Utilizing Futures - Enterprises face five main challenges in utilizing futures tools: insufficient professional capacity, funding constraints, limited market coverage of futures products, inadequate understanding of basis risk, and uneven distribution of delivery warehouses [3][4] - Many enterprises still have misconceptions about the futures market, leading to low participation rates in risk management through futures and derivatives [4] Group 4: Expectations from the Futures Industry - Enterprises expect the industry to enhance specialized service offerings, reduce market participation costs, accelerate product and tool innovation, and assist in optimizing delivery warehouse layouts [3][4] - Guangfa Futures aims to provide customized risk management services to small and medium-sized enterprises, covering various commodities and offering comprehensive support in supply chain finance [4][5] Group 5: Educational Initiatives - To improve understanding and utilization of futures tools, Guangfa Futures is focusing on creating a layered educational content system, innovative educational formats, and a collaborative educational ecosystem [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core View - Polypropylene (PP) is greatly affected by the macro - situation, including Sino - US negotiations and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, bringing significant uncertainty to the market. However, the fundamentals of PP have changed little recently. With increasing supply pressure and weak demand, the upside potential of PP is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The monthly price range of PP is predicted to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 9.69%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 12.0% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,050 - 7,100 yuan, and sell PP2509C7000 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6,800 - 6,900 yuan, and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - situation has a great impact on polyolefins. The supply of PP is under pressure due to reduced planned maintenance and upcoming new device launches. The demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for downstream orders and the downstream profit is poor this year [2]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - Current device maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply. - The current market is at a low level, limiting the downside space. - Tensions in the Middle East may drive up oil prices, supporting polyolefins [3]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 2 was launched during the Dragon Boat Festival, and multiple devices will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. - The seasonal peak of exports has passed, and subsequent exports are expected to decline. - It is the off - season for downstream sales, and domestic demand is weak due to poor overall profits this year [4]. 3.6 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the PP01 contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, the PP05 contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, and the PP09 contract was 6,969 yuan/ton. There were corresponding daily and weekly changes in these contracts and their spreads [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the spot price in North China was 6,975 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,195 yuan/ton. There were also changes in regional spreads [7]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: There were changes in the spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and wire drawing [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US propane price was 543.032 dollars/ton, etc. There were different profit situations for various PP production methods, such as oil - based, coal - based, etc. [7].

Group 1 - The current supply-demand situation in the pig market shows a high enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding end, while demand remains weak, prompting the government to initiate pork reserve storage [1][2] - The National Pork Reserve policy serves as an important tool in stabilizing supply and prices in the pig industry, with the recent storage action being the first significant one this year [1][2] - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of June 10 was 14.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.8 yuan/kg since the May Day holiday, indicating a weak price trend due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] Group 2 - The government initiated temporary pork reserve storage due to continuous declines in pig prices and shrinking breeding profits, with the pig-to-grain ratio indicating a need for intervention [2][4] - The current breeding profit per pig is estimated at 80.10 yuan, a significant drop from over 400 yuan in the same period last year, highlighting the financial pressure on large pig enterprises and the impact on small breeders [4][5] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been implemented to support small breeders, with 17 projects launched this year, safeguarding 250,000 pigs against market price fluctuations [5]