Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.7%, but down 0.3 percentage points from April[2] - The cumulative value from January to May is still 0.5 percentage points higher than the total for last year[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 5.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9%, and up 1.3 percentage points from April[2] - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth from January to May was 3.7%, below the expected 4.0%, but still 0.5 percentage points higher than last year[2] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector investment from January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from January to April, and 0.7 percentage points lower than last year[10] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from January to April, but up 1.2 percentage points from last year[10] - Real estate investment showed a decline of 10.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from January to April, and 0.1 percentage points lower than last year[10] Trade and Exports - In May, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from April, while cumulative exports from January to May were up 0.2 percentage points from last year[11] - Imports decreased by 3.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from April, with cumulative imports down 12.3% from last year[11] - The trade surplus in May was $103.2 billion, a historical high, with a cumulative surplus of $471.9 billion from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%[11] Economic Challenges - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, slightly below the expected 5.1%, but youth unemployment remains high, affecting consumer confidence[4] - The CPI in May was -0.1%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, while the PPI was -3.3%[25] - Real estate sector challenges continue to impact overall economic growth, with new housing starts down 22.8% year-on-year from January to May[33]

Core Viewpoint - The fundamental aspects of listed companies are dynamic and require continuous tracking for investment decisions [2] Group 1: Investment Timing and Company Performance - Investment opinions should always consider the time context, as companies that were once seen positively may not maintain that status over time [3][7] - The author has previously highlighted the risks of valuation bubbles in sectors like liquor and pharmaceuticals, and the overcapacity risks in semiconductors and new energy sectors [3][4] - The Chinese economy is still experiencing rapid growth, suggesting significant upward potential [4] Group 2: Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - At the market level of 2700 points, there was a strong rationale for full investment, which proved to be a successful strategy by year-end [5][6] - The concept of "good companies" is time-sensitive, and past high-performing stocks may not guarantee future success [7][9] - The cyclical nature of industries, such as non-ferrous metals and shipping, necessitates close monitoring of trend changes [10] Group 3: Value Investment and Market Dynamics - Value investing is not inherently difficult, but identifying true investment value is challenging [11] - The ability to discover value in advance is equated with the ability to generate profits [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and the potential investment opportunities during different phases of the market, particularly in the context of the "smile curve" investment strategy. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with large-cap stocks showing minimal volatility while small-cap stocks faced more significant drops [2][3] - The value style of investing has proven to be relatively resilient during this period [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw declines, but it has been relatively strong compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's drop being less severe [5][7] - The Hong Kong dividend index has shown strength, indicating a positive trend in dividend-paying stocks [8] Global Market Context - Global stock markets are experiencing fluctuations primarily due to regional conflicts, which are affecting investor sentiment but are not expected to have a significant impact on the operational performance of listed companies [10][11][12] Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of the "smile curve" in investment, highlighting the benefits of dollar-cost averaging during market downturns to lower costs and achieve profitability when the market recovers [14] - The formula for index returns is presented: Index Value = Valuation * Earnings + Dividends, emphasizing the role of earnings growth as a key driver for long-term index appreciation [16][20] - Historical data shows that earnings growth is not uniform, with certain years experiencing slowdowns or negative growth, while others see rapid growth [21][22] Sector Performance Analysis - Specific sectors are analyzed in the context of the current market cycle: - Technology stocks in Hong Kong have recently entered a recovery phase after significant declines in 2021-2022, with earnings expected to rebound in 2024-2025 [27] - The pharmaceutical sector is following a similar trajectory but is lagging by about two years [28] - The consumer sector is still in a downturn, similar to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating ongoing challenges [29] - The Hang Seng Index has shown a 16% year-on-year earnings growth in Q1, ranking among the top global indices [31][32] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that economic downturns can present investment opportunities, while overly optimistic views during economic booms can lead to market corrections [35][36] - The cyclical nature of the economy means that investors should be prepared for both low and high market phases, with the potential for attractive buying opportunities during downturns [34]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class impoverishment [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, all of which saw significant middle-class challenges [1][2]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and industry corrections [2][3]. - The middle class is particularly vulnerable during these transitions, facing stagnant incomes and declining asset values while still carrying debt [3]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - The current low-growth environment exacerbates wealth inequality, as many individuals are either in debt or losing money on risky investments [4]. - However, certain stable industries and high-dividend stocks can provide consistent returns, even in adverse economic conditions, as evidenced by Japan's high-yield stocks during its "lost 30 years" [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Middle Class - To navigate the impending wealth divide, individuals should focus on preserving wealth rather than engaging in reckless spending or investment [5]. - It is advised to allocate funds into stable, income-generating assets, similar to Japan's high-yield stocks, to ensure financial security in the coming years [5].

Inflation Data Summary - May CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2% and consistent with the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in the previous month[1] Energy and Commodity Prices - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a 1.7% decrease in energy prices contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.2% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% from February to May[1] - Transportation fuel prices dropped by 3.7%, with a total decline of 9.2% from March to May[1] Service and Food Prices - Service prices were flat month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3%, indicating weakened support for CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller decline compared to historical averages of -1.1% and -0.9% for the same period[3] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 5.9%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 3.3% due to drought conditions in northern regions[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI remained unchanged month-on-month at -0.4%, consistent with the previous two months[5] - The rolling three-month average for PPI is -0.4%, marking a seven-month low, with an annual rate of -4.7%[5] - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of -2.5% and -0.9%, respectively, while the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.3%[5] Market Implications - The weak inflation data suggests continued pressure on industries sensitive to economic cycles, while technology sectors may perform relatively better[8] - Defensive dividend stocks are recommended for consideration, although attention should be paid to potential market disruptions from dividend-related trading in June and July[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high levels of government debt in developed countries compared to emerging economies, suggesting that economic advancement may lead to increased debt burdens, potentially leading to a decline in national stability over time [1]. Group 1: Government Debt Levels - Developed countries like Japan and the US have government debt ratios exceeding 250% and 125% respectively, while emerging economies, such as ASEAN countries, maintain an average debt ratio around 30-40%, well below the 60% international safety threshold [1]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that global public debt to GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030 [12][14]. Group 2: Causes of Debt Growth - The rapid increase in government debt is attributed to various factors, including government objectives, responsibilities, and creditworthiness. For instance, Japan's debt has surged due to efforts to combat deflation following the 1990s real estate bubble burst [15]. - The US government debt ratio increased significantly during the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting the need for fiscal stimulus amid economic downturns [18][20]. Group 3: Global Debt Comparisons - As of Q3 2024, the average macro leverage ratio for developing countries is 217%, while for developed countries it is 255% [12]. - The global debt, including government, household, and corporate liabilities, is projected to increase by $7.2 trillion, reaching $318.4 trillion [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications of Aging Populations - The article highlights that global aging populations are leading to increased fiscal pressures, as higher dependency ratios necessitate greater government spending on healthcare and pensions [10][44]. - Countries are facing a dual challenge of rising debt levels and aging populations, which could lead to economic stagnation similar to the "diseases of aging" seen in individuals [44]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The historical context of debt accumulation post-World War II shows that many nations initially had low debt levels, which have escalated due to various crises [12][44]. - The article suggests that the current global economic structure is facing challenges that may lead to prolonged periods of low growth and high debt, akin to the aging process in individuals [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges facing the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting the impact of economic cycles on sales and pricing strategies [3][6][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, negative news dominated the white wine sector, with prices for premium brands like Moutai nearing 2050 yuan per bottle, approaching the 2000 yuan mark [3]. - E-commerce platforms have been aggressively discounting products, leading to price discrepancies across channels, which has pressured manufacturers to maintain pricing [5][6]. - The overall market environment appears slightly better than last year, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, and catering revenue increasing by 4.8% [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - First-quarter reports indicate a significant decline in growth rates for most white wine companies compared to the previous year, with some experiencing substantial drops in net profit [6]. - Moutai is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while other companies will struggle to achieve positive growth or minimize declines [7][8]. - Moutai has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75%, with a projected net profit of 86.2 billion yuan for 2024, translating to a dividend of approximately 51.43 yuan per share [8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Concerns about the long-term viability of the white wine market include changing consumer preferences, high prices, and potential overcapacity [9]. - Historical perspectives suggest that current criticisms of the white wine sector echo sentiments from previous downturns, which were followed by recovery [9][11]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the white wine market can provide insights into broader economic trends, consumer behavior, and financial markets [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider taking phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling small - and medium - cap indices on rallies due to high congestion and market instability [13]. - For Treasury bond futures, focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend [14]. - For the European container shipping route, the previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile, and long - term factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. - For cotton, the easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average [16][17]. - For sugar, the supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend, and international supply surplus may suppress long - term prices [18][20]. - For eggs, the consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. - For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended [22]. - For red dates, short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [24]. - For live pigs, the spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. - For crude oil, the long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor [27]. - For caustic soda, the market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions [28]. - For soda ash and glass, soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term [29]. - For asphalt, the futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. - For pulp, the short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally [33]. - For logs, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices [34]. - For urea, with the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35]. - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. - For lithium carbonate, the future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production reduction [38]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts [39][40]. - For steel and iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand [41]. - For coking coal and coke, the fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [43]. - For ferroalloys, for ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation [45]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The National Internet Information Office and financial regulatory authorities have dealt with accounts and websites spreading false capital market information, conducting illegal stock recommendations, and hyping virtual currency trading [10]. - The State Council has reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Green and Low - Carbon Development of the Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2027), studied measures to improve the horizontal ecological protection compensation mechanism, and discussed the draft amendment to the Food Safety Law [10]. - US President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1st and a 25% tariff on non - US - made products of mobile phone manufacturers [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that Trump's tariff threat aims to prompt the EU to act faster, and the US is expected to reach agreements with other countries within 90 days [11]. - Most banks' large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates are declining. A private bank may lower the interest rates of some deposit products on May 27th [11]. - Multiple provinces have strengthened the management of special bond funds, and the Ministry of Finance's regulatory bureau has made it a key management point [11]. - If Trump imposes a 50% tariff on the EU, Germany may lose about 200 billion euros by the end of his second term in 2028 [11]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's report shows that the Chinese export container shipping market is improving, and the national economy is growing steadily. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year [12]. - China and the Netherlands will communicate on semiconductor export control issues to maintain the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [12]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsby believes that although the threshold for short - term interest rate cuts is "slightly high", rate cuts are possible in the next 10 - 16 months, and high tariffs are "terrible for the supply chain" [12]. Futures Markets Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and short - sell small - and medium - cap indices on rallies. The high congestion of small - cap indices and market instability have led to a decline. The previous policies have shown weak support for the domestic economic cycle, and the market may rest in the short term [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend. The bond market sentiment was affected by the MLF injection and bond issuance. The current contradiction in the bond market may be bond issuance, and the supply pressure affects the capital flow [14][15]. European Container Shipping Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile due to previous tariff sentiment and time lag. In the long term, factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. Cotton - The easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory digestion [16][17][18]. Sugar - The supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend. International supply surplus may suppress long - term prices, and domestic supply is relatively loose but inventory is low. Attention should be paid to import supply [18][20][21]. Eggs - The consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June due to large supply, quality problems, and lack of festival - driven consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current situation of fruit setting in different regions is inconsistent, and the inventory is at a low level in the past six years. The price and sales volume are expected to be stable before the Dragon Boat Festival [22][24]. Red Dates - Short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market trading atmosphere has weakened after the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the supply is sufficient [24]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors of increased theoretical supply pressure and high inventory, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. Crude Oil - The long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. OPEC + plans to increase production, and global economic weakness may affect demand. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor. The supply from Iran is a risk factor [27]. Caustic Soda - The market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the futures price is currently at a discount [28]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. The downstream demand is stable. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [29][30]. Asphalt - The futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil. The price in Shandong increased slightly over the weekend, and the production of refineries is lower than expected [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - A volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. The price decline is affected by factors such as crude oil regression, restart of maintenance devices, and potential production cuts in downstream staple fibers. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. Pulp - The short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally. The downstream construction has changed slightly, and cultural paper has issued price - increase notices [33]. Logs - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term [34]. Urea - With the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. The price of urea in the spot market is slightly declining, and the futures price is also falling. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35][36]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum price is supported by low warehouse receipts and inventory, but it is expected to fluctuate due to trade negotiations and off - season expectations. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. Lithium Carbonate - The future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The price decline may increase the possibility of upstream production reduction. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand change of the product itself [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts. The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is affected by factors such as photovoltaic installation data and component production [39][40]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the supply side has a certain reduction in iron - making molten iron production [41][42]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The steel - making blast furnace restart is basically in place, and the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the supply - demand of coke is basically balanced [43][44]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation. The current supply - demand of both has no obvious contradiction, and the cost of ferrosilicon is affected by electricity prices [45].

传统投资决策的盲区往往源于单一资产类别的视角局限。巨匯通过股票、债券、大宗商品与外汇市场的联动分析，将分散的金融要素编织成动态关系网。当 美国劳工部发布非农就业数据时，平台能在9秒内同步更新美元指数期货持仓变化、科技股波动率指数以及黄金避险资金流向，这种全资产透视能力就像为 投资者配备了金融市场的热成像仪。5月美联储利率决议期间，系统提前24小时预警欧元/美元1.08-1.095的震荡区间，通过历史波动率对比与流动性监测模 型，帮助用户规避了15%的潜在回撤风险。 经济周期罗盘：策略适配器的运作逻辑 在全球金融市场波动加剧的2025年，投资者比以往任何时候都更需要穿透数据迷雾的导航系统。Macro Global Markets巨匯凭借其覆盖全球的实时数据网 络，正成为超过200万专业用户的首选分析平台——这里每分钟处理超过1.2亿条市场数据，相当于每秒为每位投资者过滤出最具价值的2.3个决策信号。 在平台的核心策略库中，Global Macro框架将经济周期切割为四个象限：高增长高通胀、高增长低通胀、低增长高通胀、低增长低通胀。每个象限对应着差 异化的资产配置模板，例如当前全球经济处于"温和通胀下的结构性增长 ...

CEI的四大组成部分包括：非农就业人数、剔除转移支付的个人收入、制造与贸易销售额、以及工业生 产。其中，工业生产在4月基本持平，是对指数拉动最弱的组成部分。 此外，滞后经济指数(LAG)在4月增长0.3%，至119.3点，扭转3月的0.1%跌幅。在过去六个月内(2024年 10月至2025年4月)，LAG累计上涨0.8%，也扭转了前一阶段(2024年4月至10月)的0.8%跌势，反映出经 济部分后周期因素出现复苏迹象。 智通财经APP获悉，美国经济咨商会5月最新发布数据显示，美国2025年4月领先经济指数(LEI)大幅下 跌1.0%，降至99.4点，为自2023年3月以来的最大月度跌幅。此前3月数据也由原先的-0.7%向下修正 至-0.8%。 数据显示，截至2025年4月的六个月内，LEI累计下降2.0%，与前一阶段(2024年4月至10月)持平，表明 下行趋势持续。 美国经济咨商会商业周期指标高级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica指出："本次LEI的月度跌幅是自2023 年3月以来最为剧烈，当时市场普遍担忧经济将陷入衰退，尽管最终并未成真。大多数指标组件均出现 恶化，尤其是消费者商业预 ...