——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years. However, Chairman Powell characterized this cut as a "risk management" move, indicating uncertainty about future rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Market expectations diverge from the Federal Reserve's forecasts regarding the pace and depth of future rate cuts. The Fed's median prediction suggests two more cuts this year, while Wall Street anticipates a more sustained reduction, expecting two additional cuts in the remaining meetings of the year and two more in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - The consensus among market traders and economists indicates a belief that there will be two more cuts this year, with a split within the Fed regarding the timing and number of cuts in 2026 [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - The differing expectations stem from contrasting confidence in the economy's "soft landing." Powell's hawkish signals suggest a cautious approach, while the market is more concerned about economic data, anticipating that the Fed may need to act more quickly [6][8]. - Following the announcement, financial markets exhibited confusion, with mixed reactions in stock indices and a volatile response in the bond market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's signals [9].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September 2025 meeting[2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in the expected cumulative rate cuts for the year from 50 BP to 75 BP[8] - The voting outcome was 11-1, with only one member supporting a 50 BP cut, indicating limited influence from the "MAGA" faction within the Fed[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, adjusting them to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively[8] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage points (pct) to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[8] - The inflation expectations for 2026 were increased by 0.2 pct for both PCE and core PCE to 2.6%[8] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is likely to implement another rate cut in October 2025, with a potential for 1-2 additional cuts by the end of the year[8] - The focus of monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, reflecting the rising risks in the job market[8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be mild and largely one-time[8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal industry, anticipating a rebound in coal prices during the peak season, which is expected to lead to performance recovery for coking coal and elastic stocks [3][12] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a precursor to further rate cuts, with projections indicating three potential cuts in 2025 [11][13] Coal Industry Analysis - Supply Side: Under the "anti-involution" policy, domestic coal production growth is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. In July and August, national raw coal production was 380 million tons and 390 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 3.8% and 3.2%. Cumulative production from January to August reached 3.165 billion tons, up 2.8% year-on-year [3][12] - Demand Side: The profitability of the coking steel industry is expected to maintain high iron and steel production levels, which could support a rebound in coking coal prices. Additionally, with the winter heating season approaching, marginal improvements in thermal coal demand are anticipated, with price expectations set between 700-750 RMB per ton for the second half of the year [3][12] - Investment Recommendations: The report recommends undervalued elastic stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining. It also suggests stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while advising to pay attention to elastic stocks in thermal coal such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][12] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with an increased forecast for economic growth and inflation for 2026. The median dot plot indicates an increased likelihood of three rate cuts in 2025, while the space for cuts in 2026 has been reduced to one [11][13] - The Fed's focus on employment risks and inflation pressures suggests a cautious approach to future monetary policy, with the potential for further adjustments based on economic conditions [11][14]

Core Viewpoint - TA Securities suggests that a sudden 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could initially boost stocks in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, but it may also heighten concerns about the severity of economic weakness compared to market expectations [1] Group 1: Impact on Sectors - A rate cut could positively impact real estate and utilities, which are sensitive to interest rates [1] - Concerns may arise regarding the Federal Reserve's perception of economic weakness, potentially shifting market sentiment from a "soft landing" to a "hard landing" scenario [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Reactions - The transition in sentiment could lead to a more severe market correction, particularly affecting cyclical sectors such as energy and industrials [1] - Even the technology sector may face valuation pressures unless companies demonstrate resilient earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with market reactions closely tied to the specific phrases used by Chairman Jerome Powell during his address [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Powell's greeting of "good afternoon" typically signals hawkish stances on inflation and interest rate hikes, often leading to a decline in major stock indices, with a noted drop of over 1.5% in the day following such remarks [1] - Conversely, when Powell opens with "hello everyone," it is more likely to indicate dovish signals regarding economic soft landing and policy easing, with historical data showing a greater than 60% probability of the S&P 500 rising the next day [1] Group 2: Technological Adaptation - Wall Street institutions have implemented AI systems to analyze Powell's lip movements in real-time, allowing for rapid trading decisions based on the phonetic sounds he makes [1] - The AI system triggers short positions in Treasury futures within 0.3 seconds upon detecting the "g" sound, while it increases risk asset positions when the "h" sound is identified [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup outlines expectations for a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut due to employment risks, while also providing a historical context for market behavior during such periods [1][4][5] Group 1: Historical Patterns - Historically, both stocks and bonds tend to show positive returns around the time of the first interest rate cut, with stocks averaging a 5% increase in the 50 days following a cut [4] - The dollar typically weakens before a rate cut and stabilizes afterward, while gold prices rise before the implementation of a loose monetary policy but tend to trade within a range post-cut [4][5] - In 2024, the market's aggressive pricing of rate cuts led to bond prices peaking at the first cut, contrasting with the current more moderate pricing of 120 basis points, which reduces the risk of a similar bond market downturn [5][9] Group 2: Economic Context - The ongoing capital expenditure boom driven by artificial intelligence is expected to support a "soft landing" for the economy, which is favorable for the stock market [3] - The current market environment aligns with historical shallow rate cut cycles and soft landing scenarios, potentially providing sustained support for bonds [3][13] Group 3: Key Indicators for Rate Cuts - The depth of the current rate cut cycle is influenced by the S&P 500 index level and inflation trends, with high stock levels typically leading to shallower cuts [11] - Despite significant inflation declines in 2024, the initial high levels resulted in a shallow cut cycle, indicating that current market conditions may follow a similar pattern [13] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, stock prices often experience an initial "knee-jerk" reaction, which may reverse before the close, while bond prices tend to stabilize after initial increases [17] - The report highlights that a hawkish surprise from the FOMC can have lasting impacts on currency pairs, particularly the euro/dollar, with strong dollar performance potentially lasting up to 20 trading days [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the gold market, driven by multiple favorable factors including a weak US dollar and declining US Treasury yields [1][2][4] - On Monday, gold prices closed at $3678.73 per ounce, marking a 1% increase, with an intraday high of $3685.47, indicating significant market interest [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 97.33, reaching a near one-week low of 97.26, which reduced the relative holding cost of gold for investors holding other currencies [1][4] Group 2 - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 4.034%, while the 30-year yield also fell by 2.6 basis points to 4.653%, reflecting a downward trend in the yield curve [1] - Recent labor market signals, such as the unexpected negative reading of the New York Fed manufacturing index at -8.7, have heightened concerns about economic slowdown and increased the urgency for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December [2] Group 3 - Demand from Asian countries is contributing significantly to the rise in gold prices, with reports suggesting potential easing of gold import/export regulations [4] - As the largest gold consumer, any regulatory relaxation in Asian countries could lead to increased physical gold market investments, further driving up demand [4] - Global market dynamics, including upcoming interest rate decisions from central banks in Japan, the UK, Canada, and Norway, are also creating a favorable environment for gold [4] Group 4 - The key resistance level for gold in the short term is identified at $3700, with expectations that a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve could facilitate a breakthrough [5] - Conversely, any unexpected hawkish comments influenced by political pressures could lead to a temporary pullback in gold prices [5] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming US retail sales data, known as "the horror data," which could impact market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at DWS, Christian Scherrmann, indicates that there is sufficient reason for a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting due to a cooling labor market and lack of significant price transmission pressure from tariffs [1] - The focus of the Federal Reserve meeting will not only be on interest rates but also on the clarity of the dovish stance from officials and how economic forecasts will reflect this position [1] - There are concerns about future inflation risks despite recent favorable inflation data, as companies may choose to raise prices to maintain profit margins, and labor shortages could push prices higher if major investment projects are realized [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining a balanced tone amid risks, with market expectations suggesting rates will drop to neutral or lower levels by 2026 [2] - It is anticipated that Powell will adopt a more cautious approach, relying on data due to the uncertain outlook and increased risk of policy missteps [2] - Discussions regarding Powell's successor are ongoing, and there may be internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a rate cut larger than 25 basis points [2]

Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Walsh, as stated by President Trump [4][5][6] - Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell's decision to maintain interest rates has intensified, especially following the release of weak employment data [6][8] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates only 22,000 jobs were added in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [8][10] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in mid-September, and a possibility of a 50 basis point cut [9][10] - The current employment data suggests that initiating a rate cut is reasonable, drawing parallels to past instances where the Fed acted in response to weak job growth [9][10] - The employment market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with a "tight balance" state where employees find it increasingly difficult to secure new jobs after layoffs [10]