证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 宏观点评 20251211 12 月 FOMC：轻量扩表启动，发布会信号 偏鸽——2025 年 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 ◼ 经济预测：上修增长预期，下修通胀预期。①产出：将 2025Q4 至 2028Q4 的 GDP 同比增长预测分别上调 0.1pct、0.5 pct 、0.1 pct、0.1 pct 至 1.7%、 2.3%、2.0%、1.9%，同时，下调 2027 年失业率 0.1 pct 至 4.2%，除了 美联储预期降息将提振经济增长外，Powell 在发布会表示对增长前景的 上修反映了政府停摆的技术因素影响、以及 AI 对生产率的提振。②通 胀：相比 9 月，将 2025Q4、2026Q4 PCE 预测值分别下修 0.1pct、0.2pct 至 2.9%、2.4%，对上述时期核心 PCE 预测值均下修 0.1pct 至 3.0%、 2.5%，显示在关税的一次性冲击逐步消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

美联储周三政策会议结果不及市场此前预期的鹰派，且美联储宣布自12月12日起每月购买400亿美元短 期国债，这将在一定程度上为亚洲市场带来宽慰，提振各类资产。分析人士指出，亚洲货币有望因美元 走弱而受益，在美联储注入流动性的背景下，短期债券和高等级信用债将受益，周期性股票和出口商股 票也将受益。 以下是部分市场观察人士的评论。 AT Global Markets首席分析师Nick Twidale表示： "我认为，在美联储如期降息、美国市场反弹之后，亚洲市场今天理所当然会以积极姿态开局。但我对 昨晚的降息能给全球市场带来多少持续性动能持保留态度，因为前瞻指引可能比大多数投资者希望的要 更偏鸽派。我认为随着市场消化鲍威尔所言，未来几个交易日可能会看到一些相当震荡的行情。""就市 场而言，感觉美联储和鲍威尔采取了一种非常'中间路线'的决策。总体而言，我认为这略偏鹰派，因为 美联储暗示2026年还会再降息一次，而市场期望至少两次。但他们给政策留下了如此开放的空间，这就 是为什么未来几天我们会看到市场震荡。" 野村证券高级策略师Takashi Ito表示： "FOMC会议顺利结束且未引发重大担忧，加上对2026年GDP预 ...

专题：美联储再降息25基点 3人反对 特朗普仍不满意 鲍威尔排除加息可能 当地时间12月10日下午，美联储12月议息会议宣布降息25个基点，为今年以来的第三次降息。本次降息 后，美联储基准利率下降至3.50%-3.75%区间。最新公布的经济预测摘要上调美国2025-2028年的经济增 长，最新的利率点阵图则暗示2026年和2027年或各仅降息一次；美联储同时宣布自2025年12月12日起， 每月购入400亿美元美国国债。 本次降息符合预期，昨夜美股主要指数收红，美债收益率最初大幅上涨，但随后回落，美元指数则震荡 下行。 根据美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言的重点，摩根资产管理认为： 一、本次美联储降息符合预期，但后续展望分歧 美联储本次将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。然而，未来政策利率走向 分歧加大：本次会议施密德和古尔斯比委员投票反对降息，而米兰委员认为应降50个基点。此外，在19 名美联储议息会议委员中，除了12名有投票权的成员外，有4名明年可能因轮换而拥有投票权的委员表 明未来不应再降息。 二、美联储重启购债略超预期 随着资金市场从足量转向充裕，委员会认为当前已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program to inject liquidity into the market, following recent volatility in the $12 trillion repurchase market, despite emphasizing that this is not quantitative easing (QE) [1][4][5]. Group 1: RMP Program Details - The New York Fed announced a plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve levels, marking a significant shift in the Fed's balance sheet management strategy [2][3]. - The RMP will adjust its purchasing scale based on expected trends in Fed liabilities and seasonal fluctuations, with the first plan to be published on December 11 [2][4]. - The Fed's statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the need for short-term Treasury purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the Fed's insistence that RMP is not QE, the market has reacted as if it is, with increases in U.S. Treasuries, equities, Bitcoin, gold, and oil, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. - The liquidity injection is expected to quickly lower the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while the Federal Funds Rate (FF) will respond more slowly, creating significant arbitrage opportunities for investors [5][6]. - Historical context from 2019 suggests that similar liquidity injections led to rapid changes in SOFR, indicating that the current market may experience similar dynamics [6][9]. Group 3: Comparison with Historical Context - The RMP's scale is expected to be lower than in 2019, with anticipated monthly purchases around 0.15% of GDP, compared to 0.2-0.3% during the previous episode [9][10]. - The current liquidity situation is not as severe as in 2019, suggesting that the Fed's response may be less aggressive this time [9][10]. - The mechanism of cash injection leading to rapid SOFR changes while FF lags has been validated in previous instances, indicating a consistent pattern despite the differing contexts [10].

由于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话并未像市场预期的那样鹰派、且美联储宣布自12月12日起每月购买400亿美元短期国债，美元下跌，美债及贵 金属则应声走高。 数据显示，美元指数(DXY)跌0.59%，报98.64;Bloomberg美元现货指数收跌0.4%，创9月16日以来最大单日跌幅。美债方面，各期限美债收益率全线下跌， 从数月高位回落。截至发稿，对美联储政策敏感的两年期美债收益率跌至3.524%，10年期美债收益率则跌至4.14%。随着美元和美债收益率走低，贵金属走 高。截至发稿，现货黄金小幅上涨至4232.90美元/盎司，现货白银涨至61.90美元/盎司。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会周三如期降息，以9比3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间。该委员会还在声明中微调措辞，暗示对 未来降息时点的判断存在更大不确定性。 鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的新闻发布会上表示，目前的政策调整有助于稳定正在趋弱的劳动力市场，同时维持足够紧缩的条件以压制通胀。他表示："随着 关税影响逐步消退，此次进一步政策正常化应能支撑就业，并让通胀重新向2%的目标回落。" 对于通胀，鲍威尔强调，目前通胀率超过 ...

受降息和准备金操作双重消息推动，美国国债走强，收益率曲线全线下跌，其中对利率最敏感的2年期 国债领跌约3至5个基点。 会议前数周，FOMC内部分歧已经显现。部分官员担忧通胀依旧顽固，对连续降息存疑；另一些官员则 强调就业市场正在降温，认为需要继续放松政策。最新数据显示，9月失业率升至4.4%，高于6月的 4.1%；核心通胀同比2.8%，仍高于目标。政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟，更增添政策不确定性。 尽管存在政策分歧，市场对本次降息已有充分预期，部分原因是纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在11月21日的讲 话中明确支持年底降息。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，美联储宣布了今年的连续第三次利率下调，但仍维持2026年仅一次降息的展 望，显示决策层对未来政策路径的分歧日益突出。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以9比3的投票结果批准 将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间，并在声明中微调措辞，暗示对未来降息时点的判断存 在更大不确定性。 主席鲍威尔在会后表示，目前的政策调整有助于稳定正在趋弱的劳动力市场，同时维持足够紧缩的条件 以压制通胀。他称："随着关税影响逐步消退，此次进一步政策正常化应能支撑就业，并让通胀重新向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve chair chosen by President Donald Trump is expected to be a dovish figure, leading to potential interest rate cuts after Powell's departure, which may weaken the dollar and not aid long-term rates [1] Group 1 - Gundlach believes that Powell's upcoming rate cut may be his last, as he appears more focused on rising unemployment [1] - Gundlach expresses skepticism about the need for quantitative easing, noting that the private credit market is absorbing a significant amount of supply [1] - Gundlach does not consider this a "hawkish rate cut" [1]

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $94,000 and then quickly retreated as Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded both dovish and hawkish after the central bank delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. Swinging around $92,000 for most of the day, BTC jolted to $94,400 as Powell — in his post-meeting press conference — emphasized risks of a possibly weaker than thought labor market, before giving back most of the gains after he said the battle over too-high inflation is far from over. Recently, BTC fell to $92,0 ...

fed rate cut december, fed rate cut. Photo by BeInCrypto The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, delivering the cut markets overwhelmingly expected — but without offering clear momentum toward further easing.  Today’s decision was non-unanimous, reinforcing the uncertainty that has dominated investor sentiment over the past week. Guidance Is the Market Focus, Not the Cut The FOMC acknowledged slowing job gains, a higher unemployment trend thro ...