财政部高级官员透露，最终入围的五人包括：现任美联储监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼、理事克里斯托弗·沃 勒、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什，以及贝莱德全球固定收益首席投 资官里克·里德。其中，里德虽未在美联储任职，却以对债券市场的深刻见解和媒体曝光度赢得青睐。 贝森特近期公开批评美联储"臃肿低效"，主张重新评估其政策框架与职能边界。他希望新任主席能推动 央行"瘦身"，减少对量化宽松等非常规工具的依赖。 据财政部消息人士透露，第二轮面试预计在感恩节后展开，最终提名最早可能于2026年1月提交。现任 主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。 在9月的政策会议上，美联储自2024年12月以来首次下调基准利率25个基点，并在点阵图中暗示年内或 再降两次。沃勒表示，他对这一节奏感到满意，但反对更大幅度的调整。他的新任同僚、由特朗普总统 任命的理事米兰，则主张一次性降息50个基点，并希望到年底累计降息1.25个百分点。 据悉，沃勒目前也是五位美联储主席候选人之一。美国财政部长贝森特近期与沃勒进行了长时间会面， 并将在完成第二轮面试后向特朗普递交最终候选名单。贝森特在挑选人选时，强调候选人需对货币政策 保持开放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, with a potential nomination as early as January, although it may not necessarily be for the Chair position [1] Candidate Selection Process - The remaining candidates include current Fed officials Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles and Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Rick Rieder [1] - The Treasury plans to conduct another round of interviews with these five candidates in the coming weeks and months, led by Mnuchin, along with two senior Treasury officials and two senior White House officials [1] - The interview process may extend beyond Thanksgiving due to Mnuchin's commitments to the World Bank/IMF meetings and a subsequent trip to Asia with President Trump [1] Importance of the Nomination - The new Fed Chair will be crucial as the current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, but he still has two years left on his Board seat [1] - The seat previously held by former Fed Governor Kugar is currently occupied by Milan, which will end in January, allowing the new Chair to be nominated to a full 14-year term [1] Selection Criteria - Mnuchin is looking for a candidate who is open to new ideas regarding the Fed's operations and monetary policy, with experience in economics, monetary policy, bank regulation, and management [2] Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Mnuchin has recently criticized the Fed, calling for a review of its policies, structure, and mission, indicating a preference for a candidate willing to reduce the Fed's size and limit the use of certain tools, particularly quantitative easing [3] - Currently, no candidate is in the lead, but Rieder has made a strong impression on Mnuchin, being a well-known figure on Wall Street with extensive analysis of fixed income markets and the Fed [3] - Rieder is noted as the only candidate among the five who has never worked at the Fed, which could be seen as a positive factor [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent bankruptcy of Tricolor, a subprime auto loan company, has raised alarms on Wall Street, reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis from 15 years ago [1][4][38]. Group 1: Company Impact - Tricolor's bankruptcy affects approximately 25,000 creditors and is expected to result in losses of at least $200 million for major investment banks like JPMorgan and Barclays [3][44]. - The company had liabilities estimated between $1 billion and $10 billion and was involved in questionable practices, such as applying for multiple loans on the same asset, prompting a federal investigation [41][51]. Group 2: Industry Context - The current auto loan market is significantly smaller than the mortgage market, being only one-eighth the size, and has not experienced the same level of high-leverage speculation as seen in the past [45][47]. - However, there are concerns about the growing demand for subprime auto loans, leading some lenders to adopt lax lending standards, which could indicate that Tricolor's bankruptcy is just the tip of the iceberg [49][51]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The situation is compounded by the tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration, which has negatively impacted Tricolor's primary customer base of undocumented immigrants, thereby increasing business risks [51][53]. - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, which includes lowering interest rates amidst high inflation, mirrors the conditions leading up to the 2007 crisis, raising concerns about potential future financial instability [53][55].

Economic Policy and Market Stability - The core issue in the current Chinese economy is insufficient demand, necessitating new incremental policies to stimulate growth [3][16] - Real estate should be a breakthrough point for these policies, as it has a stronger driving effect compared to the capital market [3][26] - The "9.24" policy aimed to stabilize the real estate market, but its effects are becoming localized rather than comprehensive [18][26] Reform Initiatives - Three key areas for reform include income distribution reform, fiscal and tax system reform, and investment system reform [5][44] - Income distribution reform should focus on adjusting personal income tax rates and lowering social security contribution rates to increase disposable income [35][36] - The fiscal system needs to clarify the relationship between central and local governments to enhance local financial autonomy [44] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of "demand overheating" to "demand insufficiency," requiring a shift in policy tools from suppressing price increases to supporting price growth [19][20] - Current housing policies are more focused on restrictions rather than support, which could reinforce negative price expectations [20][27] - The market's financial attributes should not be overlooked, as real estate remains a crucial asset for households [21][22] Investment and Consumption - A new round of large-scale investment plans is necessary to stimulate the economy, particularly in real estate, which can drive both investment and consumption [17][26] - Urbanization is still a significant driver of economic growth, with potential for further development in cities [28][29] - The relationship between investment and consumption needs to be improved, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market to enhance consumer confidence [17][26] Market Competition and "Involution" - The concept of "involution" is being misapplied across various industries, and not all sectors require a response to it [6][7] - Legal frameworks should guide market competition to avoid administrative overreach that could stifle innovation and competition [9][10] - The focus should be on maintaining healthy market competition rather than imposing blanket restrictions that could harm smaller enterprises [9][10] Future Economic Growth - The potential for GDP growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to exceed 5% if demand issues are addressed [30][31] - The upcoming period is seen as critical for foundational development and comprehensive efforts to achieve modernization goals [31][44]

美股再创新高：繁荣的假象与残酷的现实 2025年10月8日，纽约股市再次刷新历史纪录——标普500指数上涨0.58%，收于6753.72点；纳斯达克指 数上涨1.12%，收于23043.38点。 这已经是美股在过去十八年里无数次"创新高"中的一次，以至于不少 中国股民羡慕不已，甚至有人将其视为"美国国力蒸蒸日上"的铁证。 然而， 股市的繁荣真的等于经济的繁荣吗？ 如果美国经济真的如股市表现那般强劲，为何民粹主义会席卷全美？为何特朗普这样的极右翼政客能卷 土重来？为何美国社会的撕裂程度比冷战时期还要严重？ 答案很简单：美股的繁荣，只是一场精心包 装的金融幻象，而非实体经济的真实写照。 一、美股的"疯牛"从何而来？ 要理解美股为何能持续上涨，我们必须回到2008年。 那一年，次贷危机爆发，华尔街濒临崩溃，美国政府慌了神，美联储随即祭出"量化宽松"（QE）这一 大招。 所谓QE，本质就是印钞机开足马力，让美联储凭空创造数万亿美元，再用来购买国债和金融资 产，向市场疯狂注水。 2020年疫情爆发后，美联储更是变本加厉，直接开启第四轮QE，至今其资产负债表仍高达7万亿美元。 这些钱，并没有流入实体经济，而是像洪水一样涌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains key interest rates and outlines a clear path for reducing asset purchase programs, indicating a commitment to data-driven and flexible monetary policy to support economic stability in the Eurozone [1][2][7]. Interest Rate Policy - The ECB keeps the three key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%, as current inflation levels align with medium-term targets [2]. - August inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.1%, with core inflation stable at 2.3%, indicating a controlled price environment [2]. Asset Purchase Program - The ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities from the Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), marking a transition from quantitative easing to normalized liquidity management [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.5%, supporting the market conditions for the balance sheet reduction [3]. Economic Growth - The ECB raised its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%, reflecting a view of short-term pressures but long-term resilience in the Eurozone economy [4]. - The labor market remains strong, with a stable unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending [4]. Risk Assessment - The ECB assesses that growth risks are balanced, with both upward and downward factors at play, while inflation uncertainty remains high [5]. - Downside risks include potential impacts from trade relations and geopolitical tensions, while upside risks involve unexpected increases in defense and infrastructure spending [5]. Policy Coordination - The ECB emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to enhance long-term economic resilience, focusing on growth-friendly investments [6]. - The completion of the savings-investment union and banking union is highlighted as essential for financial stability [6]. Data Dependency - The ECB reiterates its commitment to a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, ensuring flexibility in response to economic changes [7]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that the committee is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary to maintain inflation stability around the 2% target [7].

美联储三把手、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，他支持今年进一步降息，尽管近几个月通胀已偏离美联储 2%的目标。他的理由围绕着已出现裂痕的劳动力市场，威廉姆斯希望保护这些裂痕不再继续加深。 周三，威廉姆斯在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，他认为经济并未处于衰退边缘。但他指出，月度就业 增长放缓，加上其他迹象表明企业在招聘方面更加犹豫，这些都值得关注。 目前，美联储陷入了两难。一方面，美联储官员不希望加剧劳动力市场的放缓。但他们也希望避免无意 中助长通胀，因为美国总统特朗普的关税已导致通胀再次加速。 威廉姆斯表示，美联储有灵活性来支撑劳动力市场，因为通胀前景似乎不像今年早些时候那么严峻。威 廉姆斯说，特朗普的关税确实推高了一些消费品价格，但他预计尽管特朗普对家具和药品等产品征收了 新的进口税，但关税对通胀的影响会随着时间的推移而减弱。 威廉姆斯说："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的问题。"他后来补充说，如果经济按预期发 展，通胀升至3%左右，失业率略高于目前的4.3%，他将支持"今年降息，但我们必须看清楚这到底意 味着什么。" 威廉姆斯表示，即使政府关门导致官方数据缺失，他也不会因此放弃在美联储即将举行的会议上采取 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the four-year cryptocurrency cycle is considered dead by Arthur Hayes, but not for the reasons most people think [2] - Hayes argues that Bitcoin price cycles are driven by money supply and quantity, primarily influenced by the US dollar and Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year patterns or institutional interest [2] - Historical cycles ended due to tightening monetary conditions rather than time factors, indicating a shift in the current cycle's dynamics [2][4] Group 2 - The current cycle is different due to the US Treasury injecting $2.5 trillion into the market through increased bond issuance and a push for looser monetary policy to stimulate growth [2] - The Federal Reserve has resumed interest rate cuts despite high inflation, with a 94% probability of a cut in October and 80% in December [3] - Previous Bitcoin bull markets were closely tied to quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and credit expansion in China, with downturns occurring when these conditions tightened [4][5] Group 3 - Hayes notes that while China may not drive this cycle as in the past, policymakers are shifting towards ending deflation rather than withdrawing liquidity, which could support Bitcoin's rise [6] - The transition from deflationary resistance to at least neutral or mildly supportive monetary policy removes major obstacles that could stifle the cycle, allowing US monetary expansion to boost Bitcoin prices [6] - On-chain analysis from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's price movements still reflect previous cyclical patterns, suggesting some continuity in market behavior [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the context of stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental funds, global liquidity easing, and improved Sino - US relations [28][29]. - During the "Double Festival" in China, the international gold futures price reached a new historical high. Although there is a callback risk in the short term, gold will still perform well in the long - term due to the expected decline in the credibility and purchasing power of the US dollar [21][22]. - To achieve the goal of doubling the economic aggregate or per capita income compared to 2020 by 2035, China's economy needs to maintain a moderate average annual growth rate of about 4% - 4.5% during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Policies in various fields will focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%) [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][16]. - In August 2025, social financing increment was 2566.8 billion yuan, M0 increased by 11.7% year - on - year, M1 by 6.0%, and M2 by 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Mexico launched 4 anti - dumping investigations on Chinese products such as float glass and PVC coated fabrics, and China initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation [2]. - On October 9, the A - share market started the fourth - quarter trading. Overseas stock markets generally strengthened during the holiday, and the international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, while domestic consumption during the Golden Week showed resilience, which may support the A - share market [2]. - The Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates further in 2025, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. The WTO raised the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast to 2.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - During the "National Day" holiday, the global commodity market was dominated by the metal sector. The international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices reached new highs. The price of copper may rise due to supply shortages [5]. - The central bank's gold reserve increased for 11 consecutive months. The LME inventory of some metals changed, and the copper market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The State Council's Work Safety Committee deployed the investigation, sealing, and rectification of abandoned mines and the crackdown on illegal mining [8]. - The Xinjiang Jinghe County coal reserve project was completed and put into use, with a total construction area of 131,647.92 square meters and a new 250,000 - ton coal storage bunker [8]. - Brazil and China plan to jointly establish a $1 - billion investment fund focusing on energy transition, infrastructure, and other fields [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On October 8, the US crude oil futures rose due to a decline in US refined oil inventories and a rise in the stock market. Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports in November are expected to decrease [10]. - Russia is committed to fulfilling the OPEC+ agreement, gradually increasing oil production, and its refineries have increased fuel production [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil is expected to export 1.92 million tons of soybean meal and 7.12 million tons of soybeans in October 2025 [12]. - China proposed to strengthen regional agricultural cooperation at the ASEAN - China - Japan - South Korea Agriculture and Forestry Ministers' Meeting [13]. - Ukraine approved a tax - free export mechanism for rapeseed and soybeans [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, the central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental roll - over of 300 billion yuan [14]. - On September 30, the central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan [14]. - This week, 2.6633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2.0633 trillion yuan maturing on October 9 [14]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - China and the US should expand cooperation and resolve issues through equal negotiation [15]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's total external debt was 1.74437 trillion yuan, and the debt risk was generally controllable [15][16]. - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0% [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On September 30, the bond market and futures market recovered, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining [23]. - On October 8, European and US bond yields generally fell [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On September 30, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1186, up 18 points from the previous trading day [27]. - On October 8, the US dollar index rose 0.27%, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and A - shares are expected to rise in the future [28][29]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzed the situation of the money market last week [29]. - CITIC Securities estimated China's economic growth rate during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.55%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose, while AI and consumer stocks were weak [32]. - During the "Double Festival", overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well, and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market in September [32]. - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and about 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October, mainly including active equity funds, index funds, and convertible bond funds [33].

Gold prices clo closing above $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever. At an event in Connecticut yesterday, legendary investor Ray Dallio said that the current economic environment reminds him of the early 1970s when inflation, heavy government spending, and high debt loads eroded confidence in fiat currencies. He suggested people should consider allocating 15% of their portfolios to gold.This morning, gold is up another 1.3% of $4,056 an ounce. And joining us right now to talk talk about it is Bart Melik. ...