Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.80%, settling at $3,393.7 per ounce after reaching a record high of $3,534.1 per ounce [1] - Market analysts noted limited reactions to geopolitical events, such as the upcoming video conference on Ukraine, and highlighted increased uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy due to the search for a new Federal Reserve chair [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, several institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term performance, citing factors like "rate cut trades" and geopolitical tensions as strong support for gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified major gold products, including one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as import items subject to tariffs, which initially caused gold prices to spike above $3,500 per ounce [1] - The Trump administration is expected to clarify that gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, with an executive order anticipated to address misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other specialty products [1] - China's central bank reported purchasing 1.86 tons of gold in July, marking nine consecutive months of gold purchases, which aligns with market expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, indicating potential for further increases in precious metal prices [5]

Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively[3] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2% and France's CAC40 up 2.6%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 fell by 0.9%[3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming CPI data release is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts later this year[3] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with some members advocating for three rate cuts this year[3] Geopolitical Risks - The upcoming US-Russia meeting on August 15 may impact global trade stability, especially if negotiations fail[3] - Significant geopolitical tensions could lead to increased sanctions against Russia, further destabilizing global markets[3] Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical events, suggesting a focus on long-term positions[3] - The anticipated Fed rate cuts (2-3 times this year) make interest rate-sensitive investments attractive, particularly in US Treasuries[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US stock market, highlighting the impact of employment data and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift from "recession trading" to "rate cut trading" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - In early August, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, while by August 4, it had risen by 1.47%, indicating a significant market reversal [6]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop of 2.24% on August 1, followed by a recovery of 1.95% by August 4 [6]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 25.5 basis points initially, then only by 2.7 basis points, reflecting changing investor sentiment [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article explains the concepts of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading," noting that they are responses to economic data but in opposite directions [7][9]. - Rate cut trading occurs when the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which generally supports risk assets, while recession trading happens during economic downturns, negatively impacting risk assets [10]. Group 3: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The article reviews three historical rate cut cycles since 2000, noting that each was initiated during economic difficulties [14][16]. - The first cycle (2001-2003) saw a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points, with the S&P 500 dropping 26.19% during the rate cut period [21][22]. - The second cycle (2007-2008) involved a 500 basis point cut, with the S&P 500 declining 38.72% during the rate cut period [26]. - The third cycle (2019-2020) was different as it began without a significant recession, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to further cuts [27][29]. Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed a significant downward revision, with July's non-farm payrolls at 73,000, well below expectations [39]. - The downward revision reflects a cooling job market, potentially influenced by tariff policies affecting hiring [40][41]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment may not indicate a severe recession, which could mitigate risks for equity assets [45][47]. Group 5: Asset Performance Expectations - The article outlines expected asset performance during the current and past rate cut cycles, noting that equities typically decline during rapid rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges [33]. - Fixed income assets like US Treasuries generally perform well during rate cuts, while gold tends to rise due to its safe-haven status [34][35]. - The current environment suggests that while equities may face some pressure, the absence of a significant global crisis could provide some support [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in H1 2025, with GDP growing 5.3% year - on - year, and new industries maintaining rapid development. It is expected that the pro - growth policies will be further strengthened in H2 [4][5] - The futures market has seen significant growth in H1 2025, with an increase in new and effective customers, and an improvement in the customer structure [5] - The gold price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading", "Trump 2.0", and central bank gold purchases are expected to support the price [6] - The bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, and the relative value of credit bonds increased [19][26] - The A - share market has different views, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and avoiding some high - valuation sectors, while others believe it is in a bull - market relay with short - term resistance [30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1% [1] - In June 2025, the growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Five futures exchanges will implement the "Programmed Trading Management Measures" from October 9, 2025, to strengthen supervision [2] - In July 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase month - on - month, and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed [3] - In H1 2025, the number of new and effective futures customers increased, and the customer structure improved [5] - A number of major foreign investment projects have made progress, and new policies to attract foreign investment will be introduced [5] 3.2.2 Metals - The gold futures price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading" and central bank gold purchases support the price [6] - The inventory of some metals in the London Metal Exchange changed, with zinc inventory hitting a new low and nickel inventory reaching a new high [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's largest copper mine may resume partial underground operations after an accident [8] - In late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous period [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase [9] - Speculators reduced their net long positions in crude oil futures [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent large fluctuations [11] - The pig price was low, and the revenue of listed pig enterprises decreased [11] - The FAO food price index reached a new high in July [11] - Some countries and regions adjusted their agricultural product import policies, which may affect prices [11][13] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - In July 2025, CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the National Bureau of Statistics provided explanations [15] - The "8·11 exchange - rate reform" has improved the market - oriented level of the RMB exchange rate [15] - The regulatory authorities will strengthen the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market without large - scale IPO expansion [16] - The issuance scale of new science - innovation bonds reached 880.659 billion yuan in three months [16] - The real - estate market showed signs of recovery, and some regions optimized housing purchase policies [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, the bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend [19] - The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of some bonds rose or fell [19][20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The scale of south - bound dim - sum bonds is expected to expand, and the secondary - market liquidity may increase [25] - The convertible bond valuation is at a high level, and the equity market in August has an upward environment [25] - The central bank will be more cautious about policy - rate cuts, and structural policies will be the main focus [25] - The relative value of credit bonds increased after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule [26] - An atypical dumbbell - shaped allocation strategy is recommended for the equity market [26] - The global currency system has hidden risks, and gold may become a substitute for the US - dollar reserve [26] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Nearly 50 A - share companies proposed mid - term dividends, with a total dividend of over 72 billion yuan [29] - Hong Kong's investment company has invested in over 100 projects, and over 10 companies plan to list in Hong Kong [29] - Public - offering funds increased self - purchases, with a total self - purchase amount of over 5 billion yuan this year [30] - Different views on the A - share market, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and others seeing short - term resistance [30] - South - bound funds' cumulative net inflow exceeded HK$900 billion, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to have a valuation premium [31]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian reported a record high revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6% [2] - In Q2, the revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.34 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.88 billion yuan, up 51.1% [2] Group 2 - A-share indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, up over 2% for the week [3] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with quality tech assets expected to yield significant excess returns in Q3 [3] Group 3 - Major foreign investment projects are progressing steadily, with new policies to encourage foreign investment being implemented [4] - Cities like Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou have GDP growth rates exceeding 6%, with potential to join the "trillion-dollar club" by year-end [4] Group 4 - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive, rising 0.5% month-on-month, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [5] - Hong Kong saw a record number of registered local companies, exceeding 1.5 million, with significant direct investment and job creation [5] Group 5 - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed interim dividend plans, with major firms like China Mobile announcing substantial dividends [6] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company is focusing on nurturing local startups and investing in quality enterprises [7] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to face some resistance in the short term but remains in a bull market, with industry rotation accelerating [8] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD, indicating a strong preference for Chinese concept stocks [8] Group 7 - The new science and technology bond policy has led to a significant issuance of 880.66 billion yuan in three months, with a low average coupon rate [21] - Gold futures prices reached a historical high, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies [22]

Group 1 - The gold market has recently experienced a period of relative calm after a hot first half of the year, but gold futures prices reached a new historical high of $3534.1 per ounce on the New York Commodity Exchange [1][2] - Analysts are strategically optimistic about gold, viewing short-term fluctuations as good opportunities for positioning, with a shift in focus from short-term production growth to long-term reserves of gold companies [1][6] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly influenced gold prices, with a notable increase in gold prices since August, driven by a cooling job market and rising expectations for rate cuts [2][6] Group 2 - Central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, which is a key driver for rising gold prices. China's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking nine consecutive months of increases [3][4] - Despite a slowdown in gold purchases in the second quarter of 2025, the global central bank buying remains significantly higher than the average from 2010 to 2021, indicating ongoing strong demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4][6] - Institutions remain optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in gold stocks, with a focus on companies that can expand production quickly and those with stable, large gold mines that can generate significant free cash flow in a high-price environment [6][5]

Group 1 - The gold market has seen a recent surge, with gold futures reaching a historic high of $3534.1 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the investment logic for gold stocks is shifting from focusing on short-term production growth to emphasizing companies with larger reserves, as the consensus for long-term gold price increases strengthens [1][2] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves rising to 73.96 million ounces as of July, marking nine consecutive months of increases [3][4] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that while central bank gold purchases slowed in Q2 2025, the volume remains 41% higher than the average from 2010 to 2021, indicating sustained high levels of demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4] - Institutions remain optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in gold, with expectations that interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors will support gold prices, thereby influencing the investment focus towards companies with stable, large-scale gold mines [5][6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and trade tariffs [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a continuous increase for nine months [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may reach new historical highs due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, emphasizing its international pricing power and the growing demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce measures for key industries [4] - As of July 31, 27 out of 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index forecasted positive earnings for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational resilience [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals index is currently at a historically low price-to-book ratio of 2.36, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] - The sector's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment opportunity [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1] - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, marking a 6,000-ounce increase from June, continuing a nine-month trend of gold accumulation [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may rise due to a weakening dollar and ongoing inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, both in scale and technology, and its international pricing power [1] - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in humanoid robots and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technologies [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, with copper prices expected to rise due to constrained supply and resilient demand [4] - As of July 31, 2023, the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a cumulative increase of 24.91% year-to-date, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [5] - The sector is also experiencing a valuation recovery, with the average price-to-book ratio at 2.36, indicating a historically low valuation level [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which is seen as a continuation of supply-side reforms [5] - Among 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index, 22 have forecasted profit growth for the first half of 2025, showcasing operational resilience [5] - The non-ferrous metals index includes a diversified portfolio with significant weightings in copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate investment risks [7]