Group 1 - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Lingbao Gold increasing by 7.36% to HKD 10.8, Chifeng Gold up 6.29% to HKD 24.5, Shandong Gold rising 5.19% to HKD 25.56, and Zhaojin Mining up 4.72% to HKD 20.4 [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with May and June's job additions revised down by a total of 258,000 [1] - Following the disappointing non-farm employment data, interest rate cut expectations increased, leading to a surge in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures breaking through USD 3,400 [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities indicated that the "Trump 2.0" theme involving tariffs and tax cuts may stabilize in the medium term, while "rate cut trades" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases [2] - After the non-farm data fell short of expectations, gold prices surged by USD 40, erasing previous losses and closing at USD 3,363 per ounce [2] - The expectation is that changes in U.S. monetary policy will support gold prices in the second half of the year, with a dual catalyst of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" continuing to drive gold prices until 2025 [2]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with US indices experiencing declines: Nasdaq down -0.1%, S&P 500 down -0.3%, and Dow Jones down -1.0%[3] - European markets saw gains, with Germany's DAX up +2.0%, France's CAC40 up +1.7%, and UK's FTSE 100 up +1.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam's VN30 index led gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's SENSEX30 indices experienced pullbacks[3] Tariff Impact - The reintroduction of tariffs has created significant uncertainty for TACO transactions, with US tariffs on the EU exceeding expectations, ranging from 25% to 50% effective August 1[3] - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 35% tariff on Canada, indicates a strategy of "maximum pressure" on allies, potentially disrupting market perceptions of TACO transactions[3] - According to TAX FOUNDATION, the weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, leading to an estimated annual tariff revenue of $665.91 billion based on a $4.1 trillion import scale for 2024[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Divergence in interest rate cut expectations has increased, influenced by tariff uncertainties; some Fed officials express caution regarding inflation impacts from tariffs[3] - The latest FOMC minutes indicate a preference for observing tariff impacts before deciding on rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut starting in September[3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed, including social media calls for rate cuts, adds complexity to the interest rate outlook, with market volatility expected until September[3] Investment Strategy - The unexpected tariffs may impact TACO transactions and short-term market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks and gold[3] - Long-term investment recommendations include positioning in US Treasuries and XBI, which may benefit from strengthened rate cut expectations[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Core Viewpoint - Company is positioned as a leading gold enterprise in China with strong growth momentum, projecting EPS of 0.92 CNY and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a CAGR of 62% [1] Group 1: Growth Potential - The company holds a 70% stake in the Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to produce 15-20 tons of gold annually upon reaching full capacity, with an estimated annual production attributable to the company of 10.5-14 tons, potentially becoming one of the largest operating gold mines in China [2] - The average unit cost of ore extraction is projected to be 340 CNY/ton, with early mining of high-grade ore (approximately 6 g/ton) expected to yield better profits [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The company successfully privatized Tietto Minerals in June 2024 and completed the acquisition of West African Gold, marking the beginning of its international expansion [3] - Tietto holds 88% of the Abujar open-pit gold project in Côte d'Ivoire, with an expected average annual gold production of 5.28 tons over the next nine years, indicating strong profitability potential [3] - West African Gold has the Komahoun Gold Mine, with an annual production capacity of up to 1.77 tons, supporting the company's strategy to achieve a "dual H" development model with equal domestic and international operations [3] Group 3: Management and Governance - Zijin Mining became the second-largest shareholder of the company in 2022, holding 44% of the Haiyu Gold Mine, facilitating collaboration in five key areas: system mechanisms, investment development, technological innovation, talent cultivation, and industrial development [4] - The management team underwent a reshuffle in 2023, leading to significant improvements in governance, with a continuous decline in expense ratios since 2022, enhancing internal and external growth and profitability [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The onset of interest rate cuts is expected to create upward pressure on gold prices, with actual interest rates declining, thus providing space for gold price increases [5] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to continue, with increasing demand for gold purchases, particularly from emerging countries, as global central banks maintain strong gold buying momentum [5] Group 5: Long-term Growth Outlook - The company is expected to achieve sustainable growth over the next three to five years through internal and external expansion, with a focus on converting quality resource layouts into capacity expansion and long-term performance support [6] Group 6: Catalysts - Potential catalysts for growth include rising gold prices and progress in company projects and capacity expansion exceeding expectations [7]

Group 1 - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze gold prices until 2025, supported by central bank reserves amid protectionism and great power competition [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market and economic performance may extend the current Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, but there remains significant policy space, increasing the window for bullish gold positions [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand is projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and rising investment demand [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the domestic central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,383 million ounces, an increase of 6,000 ounces from the end of April, marking seven consecutive months of accumulation [1] - The gold ETF tracks the spot gold contract (Au99.99) launched by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing a standardized tool for investors to participate directly in the gold market [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider specific gold ETFs, such as Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) [2]

华源证券近日发布贵金属双周报：黄金下跌后有所反弹，白银震荡上行。近两周，伦敦 现货黄金下跌1.08%至3331.90美元/盎司，上期所黄金下跌0.20%至777.06元/克，沪金持仓量 下跌2.57%至40.97万手；伦敦现货白银上涨2.09%至36.89美元/盎司，上期所白银上涨2.94% 至8919元/千克，沪银持仓量上涨2.97%至91.61万手；伦敦现货钯上涨8.13%至1130美元/盎 司，伦敦现货铂上涨9.49%至1384美元/盎司。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 2）众议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案。美国国会众议院以218票赞成、214票反对的 表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。特朗普定于7月4日即美国"独 立日"当天签署该法案，使其生效。最终通过的法案版本长达869页，规模约3.4万亿美元。 根据美国国会预算办公室分析，延长减税措施在未来十年将带来超过4.5万亿美元支出成 本，参议院版本将使美国赤字增加近3.3万亿美元，债务上限提高5万亿美元。 3）非农数据超预期，强劲增长主要来自于政府部门，降息预期有所下降。美国劳工统 计局公布的数据显示，美国非农数据好于预期，失 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Gold is rated as "Buy" by Huayuan Securities, focusing on its dual business of gold and antimony, with strong growth potential driven by both internal and external factors [1][5]. Investment Highlights - Hunan Gold is one of the top ten gold producers in China and a global leader in antimony mining, with production capacities of 100 tons/year for gold and 40,000 tons/year for antimony, along with 25,000 tons/year for refined antimony [2]. - The company plans to produce 72.48 tons of gold and 39,500 tons of antimony in 2025, projecting a sales revenue of 43.5 billion yuan, representing significant increases of 56% for gold and 35% for antimony compared to 2024 [2]. - Historical performance shows steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.36% in revenue and 16.03% in net profit from 2021 to 2023. In 2024, revenue is expected to reach 27.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.46%, and net profit is projected to be 847 million yuan, up 73.08% [2]. Growth Drivers - Internal growth is supported by the construction of the Gansu Jiaxin project, which is expected to enhance gold production capacity. The project is set to begin construction in May 2024, with a design capacity of 500,000 tons/year [3]. - External growth opportunities include potential resource injections from the Pingjiang gold resource project, which could significantly boost production in the medium to long term [3]. Market Dynamics - The gold and silver prices are expected to rise due to factors such as "Trump 2.0" and interest rate cuts, providing strong upward momentum for gold prices [4]. - The antimony market is anticipated to face a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices expected to rise due to limited supply from major producers like China and Russia, alongside increasing demand from various industries [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.101 billion yuan, 2.403 billion yuan, and 2.781 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.59, 11.89, and 10.27 [5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.2%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 0.9%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.9% [6] - The best-performing sectors included comprehensive (+2.6%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.8%), banking (+1.5%), non-ferrous metals (+1.5%), and public utilities (+1.1%). The worst-performing sectors were computer (-1.2%), retail (-0.8%), telecommunications (-0.5%), media (-0.4%), and electric equipment (-0.4%) [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14,660 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.22 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [6] Important Recommendations Company: 科创新源 (300731) - The recommendation logic indicates that the new energy battery and data center thermal management business are expected to drive the company into a rapid growth cycle, especially with the collaboration with Dongguan Zhaoke, potentially entering the overseas AI core industry chain [7] - Expected revenue for 2025-2027 is projected at 1,449.79 million, 2,420.74 million, and 3,370.63 million yuan, with growth rates of 51.32%, 66.97%, and 39.24% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 91.67 million, 156.54 million, and 218.58 million yuan, with growth rates of 430.54%, 70.76%, and 39.63% [7] Company: 卫龙美味 (09985) - The recommendation logic highlights that as a leading spicy snack company, it is positioned in a high-growth sector, with the rapid growth of konjac products expected to drive performance beyond expectations [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,881 million, 9,494 million, and 11,265 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 20%, and 19%. Net profit is expected to be 1,360 million, 1,670 million, and 1,984 million yuan, with growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 19% [9] Important Insights Sector: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of interest rate cuts, maintaining a bullish outlook on gold. The market currently prices in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [10] - The report suggests that the existing upward short-term event catalysts have been fully priced in, and the overall bullish logic for gold remains unchanged despite market skepticism [10] Company: 奥比中光 (688322) - The company has achieved a turnaround in the first five months of 2025, driven by the accelerated implementation of its "technology innovation investment - commercial results transformation" strategy [11] - Key catalysts include the acceleration of humanoid robot mass production and the enhancement of the value of the company's visual solutions [11]

Group 1: C-REITs Market Overview - As of June 16, 2025, a total of 66 C-REITs have been listed, with a cumulative market value exceeding 200 billion yuan [2][7] - In 2024, 29 C-REITs were issued, with a total issuance scale of 65.6 billion yuan; the C-REITs total return index reached 1117.87 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 14.69% [2][7] - The approval of the first two data center public REITs marks an expansion of underlying asset types, indicating a shift towards new infrastructure assets [2][7][11] Group 2: Data Center REITs Characteristics - Data center REITs differ significantly from traditional property REITs in terms of operational models, revenue stability, and valuation logic [2][9] - The operational model of data centers relies heavily on specialized operational capabilities and continuous technological upgrades, with a focus on reducing energy consumption [8][9] - Revenue stability is enhanced by high customer concentration, long lease terms, and high customer retention rates, making them attractive to investors [9][10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to actively participate in the offline issuance of the newly approved data center REITs to secure potential premium returns during the initial listing phase [11][12] - The unique attributes of the data center REITs, such as advantageous locations and high energy efficiency, position them as scarce assets with clear growth drivers [11][12] Group 4: Fragrance and Flavor Industry Growth - The fragrance and flavor market in China is projected to grow from approximately 43.9 billion yuan in 2023 to over 50 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the booming cosmetics industry [18][19] - The cosmetics market is expected to increase from 516.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 579.1 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% in the ODM/OEM sector from 2017 to 2023 [18][19] Group 5: Gold Mining Sector Insights - The company, Zhaojin Mining, is positioned as a leading gold mining enterprise in China, with gold resources expected to reach 1,446.16 tons and production of 26.4 tons in 2024 [22][23] - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.97% and 250.49% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [24][26] - The strategic focus on both domestic and international gold mining projects is expected to enhance resource potential and profitability [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [6][7] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices continuing to oscillate while silver has recently reached a new high. Over the past two weeks, the London spot gold price decreased by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price increased by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price rose by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price increased by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [6][11] - Key factors influencing the market include the escalation of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the lack of substantial outcomes from the second round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data. The recent surge in silver prices to a 13-year high is attributed to these factors [6][7] - Looking ahead, the "Trump 2.0" narrative and the expectation of interest rate cuts are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices. The upcoming U.S. economic data from May to July will be crucial for market direction [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price movements show that the London spot gold price fell by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price rose by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price increased by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price rose by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [11][12] - The holding volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 7.56% to 421,700 contracts, while the holding volume for Shanghai silver increased by 13.29% to 1,039,500 contracts [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [6][7][25] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a potential for rate cuts in September [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report highlights the changes in holdings and trading volumes for both gold and silver, indicating a significant increase in silver holdings while gold holdings have decreased [46][52] Internal and External Price Differences - The internal and external price differences for gold and silver have shown an increase, with the gold internal-external price difference rising to ¥13.82 per gram and the silver internal-external price difference to ¥504.44 per kilogram [63]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a clear growth trajectory in the short, medium, and long term, with potential for both volume and price increases in gold and silver [5][9]. Core Views - The dual catalysts of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to sustain upward momentum in gold and silver prices. In the medium term, "Trump 2.0" may become the primary driver in the gold market during a 90-day tariff pause, with expectations of tariff increases, extended tax cuts, and "stagflation" providing strong support for rising gold prices. In the long term, these dual catalysts will continue to drive prices through 2025, supported by central bank reserves amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [5][57][65]. - The company is a domestic leader in silver mining, having acquired several gold mining assets, which positions it well for future growth. As of the end of 2024, the company has identified approximately 12,000 tons of silver and 34 tons of gold, with an annual mining capacity nearing 2 million tons [6][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's closing price is 13.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9.28 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 8.97 billion yuan. The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 45.60%, and the net asset value per share is 4.40 yuan [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.498 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 576 million yuan, reflecting a 47.74% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.84 yuan [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has a clear growth path for production from its upcoming mines, with several projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2027. Key projects include the Honglin Mining and Yindu Mining, which are anticipated to start production in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][36][40]. - The company is actively pursuing resource acquisitions to enhance its growth potential, with plans to complete at least one acquisition project by 2025 [11][41]. Profitability and Performance Recovery - The company experienced a significant recovery in 2024, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 163.56% increase year-on-year, driven by the completion of technical upgrades at its subsidiaries and rising base metal prices. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 33.92% year-on-year [43][44]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a robust resource base with high-grade deposits, particularly in the Daxinganling region, which supports its strong profitability. The ongoing construction of new mines is expected to further enhance production capacity [27][30][33].