Core Viewpoint - Asian oil and gas producers may face significant price volatility in the second half of the year due to OPEC+ production increases, U.S. shale oil exports, and tariff disputes among economies, which threaten long-term oil demand and pricing. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could expand the risk premium for crude oil in the short term, potentially pushing prices up to $90 per barrel, while long-term demand decline may lead to a drop to $40 per barrel [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January 1 to June 13, the Asian oil and gas index underperformed the broader market due to a slowdown in global trade and industrial activity caused by U.S. tariffs, leading to a bleak oil demand outlook. However, the performance gap narrowed in June as investor concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions increased [5][6]. - During the same period, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Energy Index rose by 7.48%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased by 9.1%, indicating that the energy sector lagged behind the broader market [6]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book ratio for the Asian oil and gas sector stands at 1.1 times, aligning with the 10-year average, suggesting that investors have not fully accounted for the potential upside in oil prices. The uncertainty from U.S. tariffs has led traders to reduce their exposure to oil, reflected in the declining valuations from January to April [9]. - In June, valuations showed a slight recovery, indicating that traders have reduced earlier bets on falling oil prices following the Israel-Iran conflict. A $1 per barrel change in WTI crude oil price could lead to a $0.8 change in earnings per share for Asian oil companies [9].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4.14美元，收于每桶64.37美元，跌幅 为6.04%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.34美元，收于每桶67.14美元，跌幅为6.07%。 按照美国方面宣布的时间表，伊朗与以色列的停火于北京时间24日正午后正式生效。尽管随后以伊双方 均违反停火协议，但停火协议继续得到执行。以色列总理办公室24日说，以总理内塔尼亚胡同特朗普通 话，以方已同意不对伊朗发动进一步打击。 Kpler公司首席石油分析师马特·史密斯（Matt Smith）说，特朗普似乎始终不愿将伊朗石油从市场中剔 除，因为那将推高油价。 在线交易和投资机构IG集团市场分析师托尼·西卡莫（Tony Sycamore）说，由于伊朗与以色列已达成停 火协议，上周原油价格中蕴含的风险溢价几乎完全消散。 新华财经纽约6月24日电（刘亚南张怡然）受以色列与伊朗达成停火协议和市场对伊朗石油出口前景的 预期显著改变影响，国际油价24日低开低走，尾盘连续第二个交易日大幅收跌。 刘易斯预计，通胀和经济增长可能会在后市推动油价小幅上涨，但目前将会首先寻求企稳，然后才会走 高。 （文章来源：新华财经） 外汇 ...

【环球时报特约记者 汪品植 环球时报记者 杨舒宇】随着以伊冲突的持续和美国下场对伊朗核设施实施打击，中东紧张局势不断升级，全球能源 市场和航运供应链前景均被蒙上厚重的阴云。 " 世界能源运输的动脉 " 周一早盘，国际基准布伦特原油价格较前一周收盘价上涨逾5%，至每桶81美元以上。后回吐涨幅，跌至每桶80美元以下。自本轮以伊冲突爆发以 来，国际油价已在不到两周时间内上蹿约10%。 战争的爆发将波斯湾出口主要产品的风险溢价大幅提高。在成品油领域，以伊冲突对柴油价格的影响凸显，尤其是在欧洲。欧洲ICE低硫柴油基 准价格自6月12日以来已上涨近15%，延续近几个月柴油价格的上涨势头，这得益于全球需求强劲以及欧洲和美国库存较低。柴油价格对欧洲的影 响尤为突出。 上周中，欧洲柴油期货基准价格较原油的溢价突破每桶20美元。根据国际能源署的数据，去年，柴油约占欧洲整体油品需求的 44%。柴油在欧洲用于私人和商业运输以及工业用途，去年欧洲精炼燃料的进口量超过120万桶/日。此前，欧洲叫停了从俄罗斯的柴油进口，而 主要转向中东和亚洲进口。 中东是全球柴油主要出口地区，去年中东地区的柴油出口量达到每天83.1万桶，约占全球经海路进 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing conflict and missile attacks, the Israeli market is thriving, with the TA-125 index reaching new historical highs and showing resilience compared to global markets [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The TA-125 index has seen a continuous rise, with an increase of approximately 8% since the outbreak of conflict on October 7, 2023, while the S&P 500 has slightly declined [7] - The total return of the TA-125 index from the onset of the Gaza conflict to June 12, 2023, was about 46%, outperforming the S&P 500's 40% increase during the same period [5] - Local investors in Israel are showing confidence, with the market remaining stable even after significant military actions, indicating a pattern of quick rebounds following initial declines [5][6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Israeli investors have developed a familiarity with conflict, often viewing wartime conditions as buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell [5][6] - The recent market uptrend suggests that investors are not only buying on dips but are also willing to chase higher prices, indicating strong bullish sentiment [6] - Analysts believe that local investors are betting on the weakening of Iranian influence in the region due to Israeli military actions, which has contributed to the market's positive performance [7][8] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite the ongoing military mobilization and conflict, Israel's economy has shown remarkable resilience, with a low unemployment rate near 3% and continued economic growth [5][8] - The chief economist at IBI Investment Company noted that while the budget deficit has widened, the overall economic stability remains intact [5] - The changing security landscape around Israel has led to a decrease in perceived geopolitical risk, potentially paving the way for increased foreign investment once the situation stabilizes [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current military actions, with estimates suggesting that the conflict could be costly, potentially limiting Israel's ability to engage in prolonged warfare [9][10] - The former governor of the Bank of Israel highlighted that the economic impact of the conflict will largely depend on its duration, with short-term engagements being manageable but longer conflicts posing significant challenges [10] - Unresolved issues related to the Palestinian conflict and the potential for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program remain long-term risks for the Israeli market [10][11]

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 15% has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of federal debt and the need for effective fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, marking a new high and raising market concerns about debt sustainability [1]. - Approximately 47% of federal public debt is linked to floating rate bonds, with a total stock of 3.75 trillion Brazilian Reais. A 1% increase in interest rates will raise debt costs by 37.5 billion Reais within a year [1]. - The recent 0.25 percentage point increase is estimated to lead to an additional expenditure of about 12.1 billion Reais over the next 12 months [2]. Group 2: Debt Projections - The total federal debt could approach the set limit of 8.5 trillion Reais by the end of 2025, up from 7.3 trillion Reais at the end of 2024, due to rising financing needs and increased borrowing costs [2]. - Interest payments on federal domestic currency debt are projected to reach 540.43 billion Reais over the next 12 months at current interest rates [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Economists express that the tightening of monetary policy reflects market concerns over the ongoing expansion of fiscal policy, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [2][3]. - The reliance on debt to pay interest has created a vicious cycle, with warnings that without achieving a basic fiscal surplus, total debt will continue to rise [3]. - The urgency for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is increasingly evident as Brazil faces the dual challenges of high interest rates and high debt levels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The volatility caused by U.S. tariff announcements is creating interesting investment opportunities in emerging markets [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Atanas Bostandjiev, CEO of asset management company Gemcorp, indicates that mispricing of risk and risk premiums is providing attractive entry points for investors [1] - Many investors currently perceive risks to be higher than they actually are, leading to inflated premiums [1] - The likelihood of these risks materializing is significantly lower than expected, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are taking profits, leading to a pullback in oil prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with prices still supported by risk premiums related to Iran and weakened expectations for a nuclear deal with the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Oil futures have retraced some of the gains from the previous day due to profit-taking by traders [1] - The market remains influenced by geopolitical concerns, particularly those centered around Iran, which have contributed to a recent technical rebound in oil prices [1] - Expectations regarding the U.S. nuclear deal have diminished, adding to the complexity of the oil market dynamics [1]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...

Report Overview - The report provides an overview of the global asset market performance on June 10, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Bond Yields**: Yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.472%, with a latest change of -0.004, a one - week change of 0.016, a one - month change of -0.001, and a one - year change of -0.075. Other economies like the UK, France, and Germany also had their respective yield figures and changes [3]. - **2 - year Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year bond yield was 4.040 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.120, a one - week change of 0.120, a one - month change of 0.040, and a one - year change of -0.900. Different economies had different trends in their 2 - year bond yields [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies**: Against the Brazilian real, the rate was 5.574 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of -1.13%, a one - month change of -1.78%. For other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., there were also corresponding rates and changes [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.188, the off - shore RMB was 7.189, the mid - price was 7.184, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.013 on June 10, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different closing prices, latest changes, one - week changes, one - month changes, and one - year changes on June 10, 2025. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6038.810 with a latest change of 0.55% [3]. - **Emerging Economies**: Stock indices of emerging economies like the Russian index, Hang Seng Index, and上证综指 also showed various performance trends on June 10, 2025 [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices including emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, US high - yield, and euro - zone high - yield had their respective closing prices and changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods on June 10, 2025 [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3384.82 with a decline of 0.44%. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext also had their closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.53 with a环比 change of -0.04. Different indices had different valuation and change figures [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was -0.58 with a环比 change of -0.02. Different indices had different risk premium and change trends [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was -1243.05, and different market segments had different fund flow data [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14153.59, and different indices had different trading volume and change figures [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was -24.47 with a premium/discount rate of -0.63% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures such as T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their respective closing prices and percentage changes on June 10, 2025 [6]. - The money market had different interest rates and daily changes, such as the R001 rate at 1.4107% with a daily change of -13.00 BP [6].