Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

01 事实上，自去年暂停北京—伦敦航班以来，英航就一直在观望。 而中国这边，免签政策的扩容动作也确实在持续推进，截至今年6月，中国的30天免签政策已经覆盖了55个国家。 但偏偏，里面没有英国。 去年，英国护照持有者虽然被纳入了中国240小时过境免签，但对更看重本国客流的外航来说，这远远不够。 也正是在去年10月，英国航空暂停了飞往北京的航班。 当时，他们用词很讲究，不是"suspend"（停飞），而是"pausing"（暂停）。 说得体面，像是一次短暂的冷静期。 在发给旅客的邮件里，英航还特意写明："我们仍将提供每日飞往上海和香港的航班服务。此次航班暂停仅涉及2024年11月至 2025年11月之间的航班安排，我们会对航班运营时刻进行持续评估。" 这两天，我看到路透社一则关于"英国航空和中国政府要免签"的新闻报道，颇为有趣。 近日，英国航空一位高管在上海公开表示，希望中国把英国公民纳入30天免签政策的国家名单，以此来增加中英航线的市场需 求。 说白了，就是在给自己留后路。 由此，这一次站出来喊话的，是英航而不是英国政府，就比较耐人寻味。 或许我们可以理解为这家欧洲老牌航司对回归北京市场，其实有一定的迫切需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The root of the conflict between Russia and the West is geopolitical rather than ideological, as previously thought [1] Group 1 - Russian President Putin stated that the underlying issues with the West stem from geopolitical factors [1]

Group 1 - India's firm stance against the US negotiations reflects its confidence and readiness to engage as an equal partner, rejecting demands to open its agricultural and dairy markets [1][3] - The Indian government has submitted a retaliation list to the WTO against US goods worth $725 million and imposed fines on Wall Street giants totaling nearly $500 million, indicating its assertiveness in international trade [3][5] - India's shift from mimicking China's development model to asserting its own influence on the global stage signifies a strategic transformation, recognizing its potential to engage with major powers like the US [5][6] Group 2 - The current international environment is unstable, and India's actions may negatively impact China's development, which has thrived under a relatively peaceful global order [6][8] - India's rise could lead to increased friction with China, driven by historical grievances and overlapping strategic interests in regions like South Asia and the Indian Ocean [7][8] - The potential collapse of the existing international order could result in conflicts over resources and power, posing significant threats to global stability and China's security [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Strong economic data and a rebound in the US dollar index have put pressure on gold prices, leading to a drop below key support levels [1] - Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation concerns have increased safe-haven demand, causing gold prices to rebound after hitting a low [1] - Technical indicators show short-term support for gold, with upward momentum in moving averages, but resistance remains above [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have surged due to technical breakthroughs, inflows from trade war-related safe-haven investments, and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve [4] - Key resistance for silver is at $37.62, with a potential breakout leading to increased buying interest, while $40 serves as the next psychological resistance [4] - The correlation between silver and gold fundamentals is strong, and the bullish sentiment for silver is expected to continue as long as trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations persist [4]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net loss of approximately 200 million yuan for the current period, with a range of expected losses between 400 million yuan and 270 million yuan [1] - The previous year's total profit was a loss of 369.49 million yuan, with a net loss attributable to the parent company's owners of 296.48 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year was reported at -0.0693 yuan [1] Group 2 - The primary reason for the expected loss is the impact of geopolitical tensions and a continued downturn in the global economic environment, leading to a significant drop in natural rubber prices [1] - The company did realize substantial non-recurring gains from government land compensation projects during the current period [1]

Core Insights - Russia is facing severe challenges in ship propulsion, natural gas transportation, and power generation, highlighting its dependency on Western technology, particularly in gas turbine systems [3][6] - The root of this predicament can be traced back to the post-Soviet era, where Russia failed to maintain its gas turbine development capabilities while Ukraine advanced in this field [5][6] - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with Russia's energy reliance now heavily tied to China, emphasizing the importance of core technologies in modern industrial systems [6][12] Gas Turbine Dependency - The Russian Navy's 11356-class frigates rely on Ukrainian-designed M7N1 gas turbines, leading to significant operational limitations due to supply disruptions following the Crimea incident [3] - The Nord Stream pipeline's 43 compressor stations, 27 of which depend on Siemens gas turbines, face maintenance challenges due to Western sanctions, impacting gas delivery efficiency [3] Technological Advancements in China - China has made significant strides in gas turbine technology, acquiring full technical documentation and production rights for the UGT-25000 through a technology transfer agreement with Ukraine [8] - The Harbin Turbine Factory successfully localized single-crystal turbine blades, improving the lifespan from 30,000 hours to 50,000 hours and enhancing thermal efficiency from 36.5% to 39.2% [8] - The GT-25000 gas turbine has been deployed in major projects, such as the Arctic LNG project, demonstrating superior efficiency compared to Russian alternatives [9] Competitive Landscape - China's advancements in gas turbine technology are challenging established players like Siemens and General Electric, with the Shanghai Electric AE94.3K achieving a 51% combined cycle efficiency [10] - The establishment of a complete industrial chain in China has led to breakthroughs in critical technologies, which Russia currently lacks [10] Geopolitical Implications - The loss of Ukrainian technology and deteriorating relations with the U.S. have forced Russia to acknowledge its reliance on China for gas turbine technology, marking a significant shift in the global gas turbine market [12]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the requested analysis

Group 1: Major Asset Insights - Gold is expected to continue its bull market, with a mid-term target raised to $4200 due to geopolitical tensions and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][5][26] - Oil prices are likely to remain in the $60-70 range, with a risk of dropping below $55, as OPEC+ plans to increase production amid a shift towards supply surplus [2][27][37] - Copper prices are projected to rise above $5.30 due to tightening global inventories, despite uncertainties related to tariff policies [2][5][40] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the resolution of tariff issues and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with a bullish sentiment returning [3][41] - The S&P 500 has regained its bullish momentum, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed later this year [3][41][42] Group 3: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant gains, with a potential to break above 42500, driven by foreign capital inflows and improving economic indicators [3][43][45] - Japan's economic recovery is attracting international investment, with a low interest rate environment supporting corporate growth [3][43][45] Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.1%, the lowest in eight quarters, and a potential for Fed rate cuts in response to economic conditions [11][20] - Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of decline, but tariff policies may lead to a resurgence in inflation later this year [15][20][18] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries are expected to ease trade tensions, with a likelihood of reaching agreements that could stabilize the global economic environment [22][23] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on global markets is anticipated to diminish, although minor frictions may still cause short-term volatility in asset prices [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The primary risk to Poland's bond yields is geopolitical in nature, with potential for increased foreign investor participation in domestic debt [1] Group 1 - Poland's debt management authority is considering issuing bonds in Japanese yen and Swiss francs [1] - The foreign exchange issuance activity in Poland is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [1]