Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%, with expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the near future [1] - Despite the rate cut, the dot plot indicates that the magnitude of future rate cuts will be less than expected, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, causing gold prices to retreat [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3707 but have seen a pullback, with short-term support at $3623; if this level is breached, a deeper correction may occur [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Global oil demand as of September 17 was 104.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 520,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with a year-to-date increase of 800,000 barrels per day [2] - Recent EIA data showed a significant decline in US crude oil inventories due to decreased imports and near-peak exports [2] - Weakening US economic data, particularly in employment, raises concerns about future oil demand [2] Group 3: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded to around 97.50 after the Fed's rate decision, following a period of decline since early August [3] - Recent US economic data, including a lower-than-expected increase in initial jobless claims and a significant rise in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, supported the dollar's recovery [2][3] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4% and reduced its quantitative tightening pace, indicating a potential for future rate cuts [4]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non-manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Social financing in August 2025 was 2566.8 billion yuan, compared to 1130.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, M0, M1, and M2 year-on-year growth rates were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively; new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, compared to -50 billion yuan in the previous month and 900 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, CPI was -0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.0% in the previous month and 0.6% in the same period last year; PPI was -2.9% year-on-year, up from -3.6% in the previous month but down from -1.8% in the same period last year [1] - As of August 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) growth was 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year; cumulative growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month but up from 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively, down from 7.2% and 4.1% in the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - On the 18th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut the base rate to 4.5% due to the US Fed's 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range [2] - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating labor market pressure [3] 2.2 Metals - Most London base metals fell. The market faces a critical supply - demand game, with potential production cuts in recycled metals due to tight scrap supply, but the traditional peak season may improve the situation [4] - After the Fed's rate cut, international gold prices dropped from above $3700/ounce to around $3650/ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 also declined [4] - Copper prices reached new highs but then adjusted. Short - term prices may fluctuate in a range, while long - term prices are affected by mine - end factors and have upward potential [5] - On September 17th, aluminum inventory reached a 6 - month high, while lead, copper, and zinc inventories hit multi - month lows [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to analyze the iron ore market and plan for the upcoming import iron ore port spot price index [7] - The US government plans to set up a $5 - billion mineral investment fund through a joint venture, which would be its first direct involvement in large - scale mineral trading [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China - led international standards for oil and gas pipelines were released, unifying 287 terms [9] - On September 18th, international oil prices fell slightly due to concerns about distillate inventories, economic prospects after the Fed's rate cut, and increased oil reserves in Colombia [9] - The EU is formulating measures to phase out Russian gas, including a potential ban on all Russian gas imports [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - China launched an anti - dumping investigation on EU pork products at the request of domestic industries [11][14] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On September 18th, the central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan [13] - The central bank will issue 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22nd [13] 3.2 Key News - The total issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an 88.3% progress rate [15] - The "Top 500 Chinese Service Enterprises in 2025" were released, with a total revenue of 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024 and an average revenue of 102.22 billion yuan [15] - Vanke adjusted its organizational structure to a flatter "headquarters - city" model [15] - Some bonds of Country Garden and Tengyue Construction will be suspended for trading to negotiate new repayment plans [16] - In July, non - US investors increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with Japan and the UK increasing while China and Canada decreased [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - After a continuous recovery, the bond market adjusted slightly, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rising and Treasury bond futures closing down [19] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the Wande real - estate bond 30 index and high - yield urban investment bond index rose slightly [19] - The CSI convertible bond index and Wande convertible bond equal - weight index fell, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - Most money market rates, Shibor short - term rates, and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds rose [20][21][22] - European and US bond yields generally increased [23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1079, down 23 points from the previous day, and the central parity rate was 7.1085, down 72 points [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.34%, and most non - US currencies fell [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC expects the Fed to cut rates again in October, but inflation may limit further easing [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the market's expectation of the central bank resuming Treasury bond purchases supports interest rates, and overseas bonds, especially Canadian dollar bonds, may be attractive [26] - Huatai Fixed Income notes that banks are more likely to sell old bonds with floating - profit OCI, and the bond market's institutional ecosystem is being reshaped [27] - Yangtze River Fixed Income thinks that the bond market had a recovery after economic data release in September, and the fundamentals' influence on bond pricing is increasing [27] - Hongze Fixed Income predicts a style switch in the bond market in September, with interest rates outperforming credit [27] 4. Stock Market News - A - share indices rose in the morning and then dived in the afternoon, with most stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.35%, with cyclical stocks down and semiconductor and robot sectors up [30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are seen as a temporary setback, with underlying potential gradually accumulating [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [1] - The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates but expressed caution regarding potential rate cuts later in the year due to rising inflation concerns [1] - Foreign investors increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a new high in July, while Chinese holdings reached a 16-year low [1] Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock indices rose, with the electronic sector leading gains and the metals sector lagging behind, while market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 2.388522 trillion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2] - The market is viewed as entering a consolidation phase after a prolonged uptrend, with differing views among investors leading to increased volatility [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Gold prices fell following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of further cuts later this year [3] - The U.S. retail sales showed strong performance in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, with tight supply conditions and high smelting output contributing to market dynamics [4][18] Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand visa-free travel and promote service exports, aiming to stimulate local tourism and consumption [6] - The DeepSeek team published a research paper on a new language model, marking a significant advancement in AI technology [7] Group 5: Market Performance - The futures market showed declines across various commodities, including crude oil and agricultural products, with specific price movements noted for each commodity [8][12][25][28] - The shipping index for European routes indicated a downward trend, with significant price adjustments observed in container shipping rates [29]

Group 1 - Major U.S. stock indices reached all-time highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 124.1 points to 46142.42, S&P 500 up 31.61 points to 6631.96, and Nasdaq Composite up 209.4 points to 22470.73 [2] - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, leading to Intel's stock surging 22.8%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987 [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.6%, and the S&P 500 Technology sector increased by 1.36% [3] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 231,000, below market expectations of 240,000, indicating a cooling labor market [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the weak job market and hinted at potential future rate cuts, with investors expecting a reduction of about 44.2 basis points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, while the 2-year yield increased by 2.5 basis points to 3.572%, resulting in a yield spread of 53.4 basis points [4] - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil down 0.69% to $63.26 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.80% to $66.92 per barrel [4]

大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 纳指新高 【导读】美股又新高了 9月18日晚间，在美联储降息并释放后续仍将继续降息的信号后，投资者重返科技股，今晚美股攀升至历史新高。 美股三大指数继续上涨，道指微涨，纳指涨近1%，标普500指数涨约0.5%。三大股指在盘初均创下新的历史纪录。 英伟达宣布向英特尔投资50亿美元，带动这家此前低迷的芯片商飙升近30%，创近40年来最大单日涨幅，英伟达大涨超3%。在降息环境 下往往表现更佳的其他大型科技股同样走强：美光科技涨约5%，阿斯麦涨超7%。 | 了 筛选 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □ | | --- | --- | --- | | 英特尔 | 32.09 | +28.86% | | US INTC | | | | 阿斯麦 | 935.77 | +7.28% | | US ASML | | | | 美光科技 | 168.03 | +5.03% | | us MU | | | | 英伟达 | 175.73 | +3.19% | | US NVDA | | | | 赛昌时 | 246.66 | +1.86% | | us CRM | | | | 台积电 | 267.1 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates an increase in interest rate cut expectations, contributing to a favorable macroeconomic environment [3] - The investment recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, as the trend continues [3] Economic Overview - In August, China's export value increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while CPI decreased by 0.40% [5] - The U.S. CPI remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also steady at 3.1% [5] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, indicating a return to expansion [6] - The global manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9, marking the largest growth since June 2024 [6] Metal Market Insights Basic Metals - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly increases of 1.7%, 3.8%, 1.6%, and 3.4% respectively [3] - The domestic aluminum processing average operating rate increased by 0.4% to 62.1% [7] Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained a production capacity of 44.085 million tons, with a weekly output of 845,500 tons [6][8] - Aluminum prices have risen to 21,050 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 3,765 CNY/ton [6][8] Alumina - The operating capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum increased to 2.21, indicating an expanding surplus [8] - Alumina prices decreased to 3,073 CNY/ton, with a profit margin reduction of 28.58% [9] Copper - Domestic electrolytic copper weekly output reached 238,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23,100 tons [10] - Global copper inventories rose to 681,400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 45,800 tons [10] Zinc - The domestic refined zinc weekly output was 131,700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 154,200 tons, continuing to rise and reaching a five-year high [11]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the precious metals market was under significant pressure and retraced. After the interest rate cut decision was announced, the precious metals market maintained a downward trend due to the outflow of long - position funds after the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled. The subsequent trend will depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. In the short term, the market lacks further positive catalysts after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, and the precious metals market may enter a volatile range. The strategy is to try short positions lightly when the price is high and focus on range - band trading [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 824.1 yuan/gram, down 10.98; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9835 yuan/kilogram, down 71. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 87731 lots, down 8276; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 395854 lots, up 223963. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168591 lots, up 3052; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122144 lots, up 3040. The gold warehouse receipt quantity was 56430 kilograms, up 2304; the silver warehouse receipt quantity was 1203523 kilograms, down 17905 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 829.6 yuan/gram, down 5; the silver spot price was 9834 yuan/kilogram, down 92. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.78 yuan/gram, up 3.26; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 1 yuan/kilogram, down 21 [2]. 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 975.66 tons, down 4.29; the silver ETF holdings were 15189.61 tons, down 28.23. The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 4. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.59%, up 2.29; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.67%, down 0.34. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.32 [2]. 5. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month pause. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risks in employment have increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is over 90%. The US new housing starts in August decreased from 1.429 million units in July to 1.307 million units, far lower than the expected 1.365 million units. Building permits decreased from 1.362 million units in July to 1.312 million units, the lowest since May 2020. Japan's export value in August decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 79.9% [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, while signaling a gradual easing cycle in response to labor market concerns [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates expectations for more easing this year, with a projected additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target at 3% [2][3] - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths, leading to increased market uncertainty and potential volatility [4] Group 2 - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, driven by rising housing and food costs, has raised fears of stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation [3] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and employment growth falling short of expectations, supporting the case for multiple rate cuts [2][3] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's dovish shift has been mixed, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing volatility following the announcement [2][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to ongoing economic conditions, with a prediction of a "stagflation, then weakness, followed by re-inflation" path for future rate cuts [1] - The current economic environment is expected to exhibit stagflation characteristics, leading to increased asset volatility [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The expectation of continued rate cuts is anticipated to amplify as inflation's low base effect wanes or weaker economic data emerges [1] - Despite some pullback in rate-sensitive sectors post-announcement, overall liquidity in the market has begun to improve, which is favorable for small-cap stocks [2] - The end of the stagflation phase is expected to create new opportunities in rate-sensitive trades, indicating a "buy the dip" strategy rather than a reversal in rate cut trades [2]