凤凰网财经讯 5月6日，A股三大指数高开，沪指涨0.49％，深成指涨0.75％，创业板涨0.97％。黄金、 稀土永磁、消费电子、服务器、CPO、算力、机器人、6G、金融科技指数纷纷走强；PEEK材料、宠物 经济、零售概念股走弱。 外围市场： 中金公司研报指出，商务部数据显示，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速 相较2024年国庆（4.5%）、2025年春节（5.4%）呈环比提速；各省市及线上平台发布的消费数据显 示，长线游、出入境游均有亮眼表现，同时品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表 现较好。展望后续，继续看好消费提振政策逐步显效，全年居民消费需求持续释放。 ②中信建投：短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费 中信建投研报指出，展望五月，市场中期或将继续处于震荡格局，但短期风险偏好呈现边际改善迹象， 或推动市场风格阶段性转向成长。市场或呈现"成长-避险-消费"阶段性轮动特征。中期建议重点关注具 备内需驱动和成长弹性特征的"新质内需成长"方向，短期重点关注科技成长与服务消费。包括：电子、 机械设备、计算机、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务等。 ③中泰证券：红利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of tariffs on China's manufacturing sector, as indicated by a decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and other economic indicators, while also noting government responses to stabilize the economy [3][4][7]. Economic Indicators - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5%, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector [4]. - The construction business activity index was at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the services business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The production index fell to 49.8% from 52.6%, and the new orders index decreased to 49.2%, with new export orders plummeting to 44.7%, reflecting significant demand contraction [4][5]. Tariff Impact - The article notes that the effects of tariffs are fully transmitted to manufacturing enterprises, with a substantial year-on-year decrease of 45% in container orders shipped from China to the U.S. by mid-April [5]. - The export container price index for the route from China to the U.S. West Coast fell by 9.7% month-on-month [5]. Price Trends - The PMI price index saw a significant decline, with the factory price index at 44.8% and the raw material purchase price index at 47.9%, both down from previous levels [5]. - Commodity prices also fell, with Brent crude oil averaging $64.37 per barrel (down 11%), LME copper at $9,487.5 per ton (down 5.5%), and iron ore futures at 709 yuan per ton (down 6.7%) [5]. Inventory and Procurement - The procurement volume index dropped to 46.3% from 51.8%, indicating a significant reduction in purchasing activity [6]. - Raw material inventory index decreased to 47.0%, and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.3%, reflecting a contraction in inventory levels [6]. Import Trends - The import PMI recorded 43.4%, down 4.1 percentage points, influenced by reduced imports from the U.S. due to retaliatory tariffs and decreased demand for foreign goods [6]. Government Response - The Politburo meeting signaled three key strategies: maintaining flexible domestic reserve policies, emphasizing stability in employment and market expectations, and accelerating the implementation of existing policies [7]. - The government is expected to expedite the issuance and use of bonds, focusing on technology, consumption, and foreign trade [7]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests a favorable outlook for sectors related to new productive forces and consumer sectors supported by policy, advocating for a "dumbbell strategy" combining dividends and hard technology [8]. - A potential reduction in reserve requirements by 25-50 basis points and a possible interest rate cut of around 20 basis points in the coming months are anticipated, with 10-year government bond yields expected to drop to 1.5% [8].

Group 1: Economic Context - Consumption is identified as the fundamental driving force for high-quality economic development, with the term "consumption" appearing 32 times in this year's government work report [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to increase income for low- and middle-income groups and to develop service consumption to enhance its contribution to economic growth [1] Group 2: Service Consumption as a Growth Engine - Service consumption refers to non-goods services in various cultural and lifestyle areas, including basic services like dining and accommodation, as well as improved services like tourism and entertainment [2] - The consumption structure in China is rapidly shifting from traditional goods consumption to service and intelligent consumption, indicating significant growth potential [2] - In 2024, China's service retail sales are projected to grow by 6.2%, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales by 3.0 percentage points [2] - Per capita spending on service consumption is expected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up by 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3: Policy Initiatives for Service Consumption - The Central Committee and State Council have launched a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action" as part of a broader initiative to boost consumption [3] - Various regions, such as Liaoning Province, have introduced policies aimed at promoting high-quality service consumption through 21 specific measures [3] Group 4: Role of Consumer Finance Companies - Consumer finance companies are playing an increasingly vital role in stimulating service consumption, supported by government policies encouraging financial institutions to enhance credit offerings for service consumption [4] - The demand for consumer finance is expanding, with companies like Mashang Consumer Finance issuing nearly 24.6 billion yuan in personal loans across over 200 consumption scenarios in the first quarter [5] - In 2024, Mengshang Consumer Finance issued over 3.26 million loans in key areas such as home appliances, education, and travel [5] Group 5: Future Directions for Consumer Finance - Experts suggest that consumer finance companies should enhance collaboration and expand consumption scenarios to better support service consumption [7] - Initiatives like joint marketing campaigns by companies such as Ant Consumer Finance are being implemented to cater to diverse consumer needs [7] - There is a call for increased consumer education to improve understanding of financial products and promote responsible borrowing and consumption [7][8]

摘要 关税风险减弱，资产价格迎来"喘息"之机 20250429 • 5 月推荐配置全球大类资产，包括美股、美债和国际大宗商品（不包括黄 金），因地缘政治风险缓解，黄金阶段性上涨可能结束。美元在关税谈判 温和进展下相对看涨。 • 国内市场因中美硬碰硬态势及基本面数据走弱，建议标配国内资产。政治 局会议结果低于预期，市场期待增量政策，但具体举措不明显，短期内国 内风险资产价格缺乏利好因素。 • 美联储 5 月降息概率较低，预计 6 月降息概率较高，需美国失业率和通胀 数据支撑。鲍威尔任期内，美联储货币政策路径未受特朗普实质影响。 • 对权益类资产持谨慎乐观态度，推荐哑铃型策略：防守端选择银行和保险； 进攻端选择电子、计算机、传媒和通信板块。银行仍具战略配置价值。 • 政策支持服务消费效果有限，中国居民消费习惯与美国不同，贷款刺激消 费效果不如发放消费券。促进服务消费可能成为政策发力重点。 • 美股自 4 月 10 日开始反弹，若 220 项贸易协定逐步推出且关税下降，可 能迎来新一轮机会，但具体措施出台前保持谨慎乐观。 • 国内大宗商品市场整体偏空，需求较弱，尤其是地产链条上的螺纹钢和玻 璃。农产品需求相对稳定。 ...

截至2025年4月30日 09:42，中证主要消费指数(000932)上涨0.72%，成分股伊利股份(600887)上涨3.99%，金龙鱼(300999)上涨3.77%，今世缘(603369)上涨 3.74%，珀莱雅(603605)上涨1.71%，重庆啤酒(600132)上涨1.53%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.91%，最新价报0.78元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月29日， 主要消费ETF近3月累计上涨4.89%。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议定调，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等；要提高中低收入群体收入， 大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用；尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款；加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两 新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。扩消费方向明确，服务消费有望成为内需增长的重要推动力。 回撤方面，截至2025年4月29日，主要消费ETF今年以来最大回撤5.57%，相对基准回撤0.34%。 费率方面，主要消费ETF管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%，费率在可比基金中最低。 此外，"五一假期"临近，国 ...

中山大学教授申曙光表示，提振消费应该以稳定就业、促进就业为导向，瞄准受到影响的重点人群、区 域和行业，精准实施政策，同时，要在提振物质消费的同时重视服务消费，尤其在人口老龄化背景下， 大力促进医疗健康服务消费，并注重疾病预防等健康消费。 近日，中国社会保障学会主办的"提振消费与社会保障有效作为座谈会"在北京举行，来自中国社会科学 院、中国人民大学、南京大学、中山大学、浙江大学等多所高校专家学者展开热烈讨论。 社会保障具有经济运行减震器的作用。中国社会保障学会会长郑功成表示，要发挥社会保障解民忧、聚 民心、稳预期、振消费、促平等、护安全的功能。"一方面，应当通过扩大社会保障支出来切实减轻人 民群众的后顾之忧，进而释放居民特别是中低收入群体的消费潜力；另一方面，通过加快优化现行社会 保障制度安排来提供清晰、稳定的安全预期。" 中国社会科学院学部委员周弘认为，国内本身即为一个巨大的消费市场，而中低收入群体更是提振消费 的重要人群，未来应重点分析并提高社会保障改革的精准度，比如在医保领域，精准衡量个体医疗消费 的负担和收益比，化解群众后顾之忧。 "提振消费要把握三个基本点：一是有能力消费，二是敢于消费，三是乐于消费。 ...

以下文章来源于城市进化论 ，作者杨弃非 城市进化论 . 探寻城市路径，揭秘经济逻辑 （互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：51120190017） 本文来自微信公众号： 城市进化论 （ID：urban_evolution） ，作者：杨弃非，题图来自：视觉中国 或许没什么比"消费第一城"易主，更能令人直接感受到消费趋势的变化。 数据显示，今年一季度，上海社会消费品零售总额为4057.45亿元，同比下降1.1%，同期重庆该数据为4204.32亿元，同比上升4.1%。这也意味着，重 庆一季度消费数据反超上海，成为新晋全国"第一"。 一直以来，上海是公认的消费大市和商业"标杆"，其社消零总额自2018年超过北京后，已连续7年居全国城市首位。在罕见被重庆反超后，外界难免关 心：上海商业，是否正在走下"神坛"？ 问题的答案，很难直接从数字中得出。有人推测，位次下滑可能源于春节节假日消费变化或者消费券发放的附带效果；更不用说，仅看社消零数据， 难以概括上海消费的全部。就连重庆本地媒体也在自我审视时，发出登顶"是否'昙花一现'"的灵魂拷问。 在外界看来，我国正在迈向一场面向服务消费的结构性转型。随着促消费不断被置于经济发展的重要位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province is implementing policies to support the development of the "first launch economy," aiming to enhance service supply and consumer experiences in various sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to cultivate 50 night-time consumption hubs throughout the year, focusing on pedestrian streets and diverse consumption scenarios such as night entertainment, dining, and shopping [1] - There is an emphasis on expanding service consumption in health, elderly care, childcare, home services, and sports, while promoting the construction of convenient living circles within a 15-minute reach [1] Group 2: Urban Development - The initiative includes urban renewal actions to upgrade old neighborhoods, factories, and commercial areas [1] - The government aims to achieve a public service quality satisfaction score of over 83 points across the province [1] Group 3: Cultural and Sports Promotion - The plan includes organizing cultural tourism promotional seasons and rural tourism festivals to optimize cultural and tourism product offerings [1] - There is a focus on applying for pilot projects to promote sports consumption and event economies, with efforts to attract high-quality domestic and international sports events [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of "vigorously developing service consumption" and proposed the establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan," a targeted policy financial tool to stimulate consumption in the context of a complex external environment [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - The enhancement of service consumption is a necessary trend linked to the upgrade of consumption structure, with service consumption becoming increasingly significant as per international experience [2] - In 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to reach $13,800, indicating a rapid growth phase for service consumption, although the penetration rate remains lower compared to developed countries [2] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to be 46.11% and 43.39%, respectively, highlighting substantial growth potential [2] Group 2: Current Demand and Consumption Trends - There is still an issue of insufficient endogenous demand, but the trend of service consumption leading consumption upgrades is becoming evident [3] - In 2024, service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, while Q1 2025 service retail sales are projected to grow by 5%, exceeding goods retail growth by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Sectors related to consumption structure upgrades, such as education, culture, and entertainment, are experiencing faster growth, with new industries like cultural tourism and low-altitude economy emerging as growth highlights [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Financial Tools - The establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan" is a proactive measure in response to the complex economic situation, aiming to leverage financial tools to unlock service consumption potential and achieve multiple goals of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The re-loan will be provided at a rate of 1.75% to commercial banks, with actual financing costs for related enterprises potentially reduced to 2%-3%, creating a transmission chain from "low-cost funds to service supply expansion to consumption demand release" [4] - The focus of re-loan should be on areas such as elderly communities, cultural tourism facilities, and sports events, aligning with the issuance of government bonds [4] Group 4: Supply-Side Structural Reform and Innovation - There is a need to optimize service supply by breaking down entry barriers and simplifying approval processes in sectors like cultural tourism, healthcare, and private elderly care [5] - Expanding supply in health, elderly care, and childcare services is essential, along with integrating consumption scenarios with credit [5] - New consumption scenarios driven by technologies like 5G and AI, such as silver-haired tourism and smart elderly care, should be explored to enhance consumer experience and create sustainable consumption power [5] Group 5: Consumer Environment and Income Security - Improving the service consumption environment requires the removal of restrictive measures and the promotion of "convenient living circles" [5] - It is crucial to eliminate unreasonable consumption restrictions, such as car purchase limits, and implement paid leave systems to unlock tourism consumption potential [5] - Enhancing consumer capacity and expectations, along with increasing minimum wage standards and issuing service consumption vouchers in key cities, are vital for boosting consumer willingness [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting signals confidence and capability to respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development[8] - The policy direction remains unchanged, with a more proactive stance expected in the second quarter[10] - The goal of achieving a 5% economic growth rate for the year is anticipated to remain intact[9] Group 2: Policy Measures - Special bond issuance is expected to accelerate, with a total of 1.14 trillion yuan issued by April 27, 2025, reflecting a 57.41% increase compared to the previous year[11] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May and June[13] - Incremental policies are being reserved for potential implementation in the second half of the year to address unexpected external challenges[14] Group 3: Sector Focus - Real estate policies are shifting towards optimizing existing policies, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market[15] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for expanding consumer recovery, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups[16] - The promotion of "Artificial Intelligence +" applications is identified as a significant investment opportunity moving forward[19]