Inflation Data Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained at 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI growth was 0.3%, and the core CPI growth was 0.2%, consistent with pre-government shutdown levels[6] Sector Contributions to CPI - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with household and non-household food both rising by 0.7% month-on-month, marking a significant upward pressure on inflation[4] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, down from 4.1% in November, and a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, indicating a significant decline in energy price pressure[10] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, gold prices briefly rose before retreating, while U.S. stocks exhibited a "V" shaped recovery, and the dollar index strengthened slightly[5] - The probability of a rate cut in January is nearly 0%, while expectations for a rate cut in April have marginally increased but remain below 50%[5] Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy faces uncertainties, particularly regarding "political rate cuts" and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's independence due to political pressures[17] - The next Federal Reserve chair's selection could lead to differing policy paths, with potential candidates showing contrasting views on rate cuts and balance sheet management[17] Future Inflation Considerations - The inflation trajectory may trend towards moderation, with commodity price pressures showing signs of easing and service inflation continuing to decline[8] - Key variables to monitor for 2026 include energy prices and wage growth, as geopolitical tensions and labor market dynamics could influence inflation outcomes[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising gold prices and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) has risen by 2.69%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Mingpai Jewelry (up 10.08%) and Hunan Silver (up 6.68%) [1] - The current spot gold price has increased by 1%, reaching $4632.67 per ounce, influenced by escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.58% of the total index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold among the leaders [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, London copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US core inflation level slowed down compared to expectations, which laid the groundwork for the Fed to cut interest rates in the future. However, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January was still relatively high. In China, the adjustment of export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaic cells might lead to a rush to export in the first quarter. LME, Comex, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, and BC copper inventories all increased. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and the trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The expansion of import losses and the opening of the export window were beneficial to export demand in the first quarter. The optimistic sentiment in the precious metal market continued to spread to the non - ferrous market. Although the short - term fundamentals weakened, the capital sentiment remained strong, and the expectation of a rush to export in the first quarter also supported copper prices. It was recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. The ore reserves of alumina plants were high, and the short - term premium procurement sentiment was low, leading to a continuous decline in costs. After the end of environmental control, alumina production continued to increase, and with the addition of imports, the inventories of manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate, and the logic of spot convergence to futures continued. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warehouse receipts might put new pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the operating rate of the processing end was expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The divergence between macro and micro gradually converged, and the over - heating boost was rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continued to be at a high level, and the spot discount continued to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell by 2.63%, and Shanghai nickel fell by 0.33%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Indonesia would adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From the fundamental perspective, as prices rose rapidly, the prices of products at all links in the industrial chain strengthened, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons. Hedging demand might put some pressure on the market price. The Indonesian policy stimulated the rise of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation and market sentiment. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US core inflation slowed down, and there was a rush - to - export expectation in the first quarter in China. Inventories increased, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the export window opened. It was recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, aluminum prices rose. Cost decreased, inventory accumulated, and the processing end was expected to be resilient. Aluminum prices remained high [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices fell, inventories decreased. Indonesia adjusted the quota policy, primary nickel production increased, and it was recommended to buy on dips [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 710 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. The active contract import loss decreased by 260 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 - 15 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventory increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1700 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.0%, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1001 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][17][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and has won relevant industry awards [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. He focuses on the research of lithium and nickel, and has won relevant industry awards [47].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. core inflation has slowed down compared to expectations, impacting gold prices and market sentiment, with geopolitical issues remaining a short-term focus for investors [2][4][5]. Inflation Data - The U.S. December CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and previous values; the core CPI increased by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [5]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains significant, as indicated by the combination of employment and inflation data [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government has advised citizens to evacuate Iran, highlighting rising geopolitical tensions that are causing investor unease [5]. - Ongoing conflicts involving the U.S. and other regions, such as Greenland and Iran, are contributing to the heightened focus on geopolitical risks [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, gold prices initially surged but then retreated, with COMEX February gold futures closing down by 0.34% and SHFE gold rising by 0.14% [2][4]. - A joint statement from multiple central banks was issued in support of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, responding to pressures from the Trump administration regarding the independence of central banks [5]. Margin Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced changes to the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value; gold margin will be approximately 5% and silver about 9% [5].

国际银价首次站上90美元，市值突破5万亿美元，超英伟达成全球第二大资产！黄金32万亿美元市值位居榜首！还能涨吗？ 每经编辑|杜宇 1月14日，国际白银现货价格首次突破每盎司90美元，再创历史新高。今年以来，白银价格已上涨25%。 图片来源：每经媒资库 截至1月14日发稿，现货白银报89.70美元/盎司，涨3.21%。 沪银涨超7%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 值得注意的是，受银价提振，白银总市值首次站上5万亿美元大关，已超越英伟达成为全球第二大资产。根据市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap的数据，目 前白银市值为5.039万亿美元；黄金以32.162万亿美元的市值位居榜首，芯片巨头英伟达以4.523万亿美元的市值滑落至第三。前十名榜单如下： 截至发稿，现货黄金报4623.36美元/盎司。 | Rank + | Name | | � Market Cap | ﺟ Price | � Today . | Price (30 days) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | Gold G ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【#多名美联储官员称不急于降息##分析预计美联储近期将保持利率不变#】当地时间13日，美国总统特 朗普再次就大楼翻修及降息问题抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称他"要么无能，要么腐败"。自第二次出任美 国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。因不满美联储未能 积极降息，特朗普此前多次批评美联储主席鲍威尔。不过有分析指出，由于当前美国通胀水平仍明显高 于2%的目标水平，在去年9月至12月连续三次降息25个基点后，预计美联储近期将保持利率不变。 ...

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 通胀上行压力不大 ——2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 投资要点： 宏 核心 CPI 同比低位走平。12 月 CPI 同比持平至 2.7%，与预期一致； 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，继续处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最低 水平。环比 0.2%，也低于预期 0.3%。从分项同比上看，能源通胀继续走低 对冲食品项反弹，核心商品和核心服务均延续低位持平，整体分项数据也 大都保持平稳。 观 点 评 能源通胀走低。12 月 CPI 能源项同比增速继续降至 2.3%，较上月下行 1.9 个百分点。油价方面，下半年以来油价中枢延续稳步回落的趋势，逐步 向 60 美元附近靠拢，主要与目前原油市场大背景还是供给过剩有关。根据 EIA 的数据，2026 年进一步过剩至 226 万桶/日，指向 2026 年原油价格大 概率依旧承压，对应能源通胀继续在低位震荡，不会对整体 CPI 形成较大 的拉动。但需注意地缘政治局部升温（俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等）或驱动油 价短期波动率加剧。 汽车通胀继续下滑。12 月核心商品同比增速录得 1.4%，与上月持平。 本月新车和二手车同比增速均继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,074.23 tons of gold, reflecting an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day, amidst fluctuating gold prices around the $4,600 per ounce mark [5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 13, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $4,634.26 per ounce before closing at $4,586.64, down by $10.76 or 0.23% [5]. - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in December, aligning with market expectations, and the year-on-year increase reached 2.7%, consistent with forecasts [5]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Traders have increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 42% probability of a cut in April, up from 38% prior to the CPI data release [5]. - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, although recent employment reports have tempered expectations for aggressive cuts [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have bolstered demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The Trump administration's investigation into Fed Chair Powell has raised market concerns regarding the Fed's independence, influencing gold prices [6]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Major investment banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, maintain a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices to remain between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce through 2026 [6]. - Factors supporting this outlook include anticipated Fed rate cuts, increasing debt concerns, ongoing central bank and ETF purchases, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties [6]. Group 5: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices have significantly outperformed gold, surging above $87 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 20%, following a nearly 150% rise last year [6]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 60, the lowest level since 2013, indicating stronger performance of silver relative to gold and reflecting improved expectations for industrial metal demand [7]. Group 6: Technical Analysis - Recent price movements indicate a temporary consolidation phase, with overbought signals prompting technical selling [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,555 (December 26 high) and around $4,500, while resistance is noted at $4,625 (Monday high) and $4,714, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level [8].

今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于20.028一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报20.181元/克， 上涨1.47%，最高触及20.186元/克，最低下探19.269元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 周二，美元指数上涨0.3%至99.18，延续了上周强劲就业数据后的支撑势头。通胀数据公布后，美元虽 短暂回落，但很快走强，因为市场解读为美联储有更多空间平衡物价与劳动力市场，而非立即大幅降 息。 总体来看，CPI数据对美元形成了短期支撑，因为它并未给美联储提供在本月晚些时候降息的理由。不 过，这也让美联储在未来有更大的降息空间，这可能在全年限制美元的上涨空间，若央行采取激进降 息，甚至可能威胁去年的低点。 白银虽一度触及89.10美元高点，但收盘仅上涨2.1%至86.74美元，显示出贵金属板块的整体疲态。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格开盘回调，目前从低位反弹，重回正值区间，一小时布林带向上扩宽，表明反弹 仍延续，一小时MACD直方图由负值转为正值，显示上涨动能回归，或继续走涨，DMI也显示处于上涨 趋势之中，纸白银走势下方关注18.50-19.50支撑，上方关 ...

Group 1 - Multiple U.S. Federal Reserve officials stated there is no urgent need for interest rate cuts based on the current economic situation [1][4] - Market expectations remain for the Fed to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points twice this year, leading to a rebound in the dollar index and a decline in international gold prices [1][12] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.80%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.10% on the day following these statements [4] Group 2 - JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, but its investment banking revenue fell short of expectations, resulting in a stock price drop of over 4% [6] - Other major financial institutions also experienced declines, with Morgan Stanley down over 2%, and Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both falling over 1% [6] - Visa and Mastercard shares dropped nearly 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively, amid concerns over future profitability in the financial sector [6] Group 3 - In Europe, stock indices showed mixed results, influenced by geopolitical risks and the investigation into Fed Chair Powell, with the UK market slightly down by 0.03% and the French market down by 0.14% [9] - Oil prices rose significantly due to concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil production, with light crude oil futures closing at $61.15 per barrel, up 2.77% [11] - International gold prices faced downward pressure, closing at $4599.10 per ounce, a decrease of 0.34%, while silver prices increased by 1.47% to $86.338 per ounce [12]