Group 1 - The article highlights the tension between the US and India following Trump's imposition of a 50% punitive tariff on Indian goods, which is seen as a direct response to India's continued purchase of Russian energy [1][3] - Modi's refusal to engage with Trump and his subsequent diplomatic engagements with China and Japan indicate a significant shift in India's foreign policy stance, moving away from the US [1][3] - Sullivan's comments reflect a broader concern about the erosion of US credibility among its allies, with many now viewing China as a more reliable partner [3][5] Group 2 - The 50% tariff is expected to severely impact India's export sectors, particularly textiles, jewelry, leather, and light industries, which are heavily reliant on the US market [3][5] - The article notes that the current situation represents the most serious deterioration in US-India relations since the Cold War, with both countries reverting to mutual sanctions reminiscent of 1998 [3][6] - The article also discusses the growing sentiment among US allies, including those in Europe and Asia, to mitigate risks associated with US policies, indicating a shift in global alliances [5][8] Group 3 - China's proactive diplomatic efforts and its ability to present itself as a stable partner contrast sharply with the US's current approach, which is characterized by unpredictability [6][8] - The article suggests that the US's unilateral actions are leading to a reconfiguration of global power dynamics, with China gaining influence and the US's hegemonic position being challenged [6][8] - The internal political strife within the US, particularly between the Democratic and Republican parties, is noted as a factor that complicates the US's foreign policy towards China, despite a bipartisan consensus on the need to counter China [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Lead: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Tin: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Bullish) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Cautiously Bearish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend in the long - term due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. In the short - term, they are also strong [1][2][3]. - Copper is expected to maintain a tight supply - demand balance. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up. It is recommended to hold long positions and some can take profits [1][5][6]. - Zinc has insufficient demand and increasing inventory in the short - term. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10]. - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure due to inventory overhang. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term [1][13][14]. - Nickel prices are under pressure as the impact of mine - end disturbances weakens. It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Due to factors such as interest rate cuts, tariff disputes, and concerns about the Fed's independence, gold has reached a new high, and silver has also broken through historical highs [2][3] Fundamental Logic - Weak economic data in the US and Germany, Fed officials' support for interest rate cuts, and the Fed's economic beige - book report indicating economic stagnation and reduced inflation concerns. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 804 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9700. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has been consolidating at a high level and has firmly stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] Industrial Logic - Tight supply of copper concentrates, with processing fees still in deep inversion. Production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up. Overseas inventory is increasing, but domestic exchange inventory is decreasing, and social inventory is at a low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions near the previous high. In the long - term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and asset - allocation value [6] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has been oscillating under pressure [9] Industrial Logic - Abundant supply of zinc concentrates, rising processing fees, and increased smelter production enthusiasm. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is increasing while overseas inventory is decreasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc is weak domestically and strong overseas. Pay attention to the support at 22,000 yuan. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12] Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production is increasing slightly, and inventory is rising. The demand side has shown some improvement. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with inventory gradually accumulating [13] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have fallen under pressure, and stainless steel has also shown a downward trend [16] Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is excessive, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the effect of production cuts is weakening [17] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has opened low and gone lower, falling more than 3% [20] Industrial Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains stable, and inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is approaching the peak season [21] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization in the range of 71,300 - 73,000 yuan [22]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被质疑，美国数据支持降息，特兰普关税被裁定不合法，9 月份降息在 | | ★★★ | 做多 | 即，关注区间上方 803、810 附近表现。中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续 | | | | 买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动，资金流入较多，破历史新高，白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 做多 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。但是谨防短期美元流动性风险 | | | | 宏微共振，沪铜重回 8 万大关，建议多单继续持有，新入场回调轻仓试多，中长期， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，沪锌跟涨外盘，但国内需求疲软库存累库叠加政策真空期， | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 ...

Group 1 - South Korea is making a significant investment of $150 billion in the U.S. shipbuilding industry, with Hanwha Group committing $5 billion to increase annual production from less than two ships to over 20 [1] - This investment plan includes upgrading shipyards, training workers, and directly supporting the maintenance of the U.S. Navy's vessels, indicating a shift from traditional diplomatic gestures to a state-led industrial migration [1][21] - The strategic pivot is underscored by President Lee Jae-myung's statement that South Korea can no longer rely on the "security from the U.S. and economy from China" approach, reflecting a complete turnaround in the country's foreign economic strategy [1][11] Group 2 - Historically, South Korea has relied on alliances with major powers for survival and development, exchanging military support for industrialization funds post-World War II [3] - The end of the Cold War allowed South Korea to integrate into the global supply chain led by the West, achieving economic growth particularly in semiconductors, shipbuilding, and automotive sectors, but this has also led to deep dependencies on Western technology [5][7] - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry has intensified pressures on South Korea, which faces increasing competition from China in traditional sectors like semiconductors and automotive [9][12] Group 3 - The large-scale foreign investment raises concerns about potential hollowing out of domestic industries, despite assurances from Hanwha that local production capacity will not be affected [13] - South Korea's willingness to take this risk stems from a belief that a strong alliance with the U.S. is essential for survival amid potential crises [14] - The geopolitical landscape has shifted since the Ukraine conflict, prompting South Korea to reassess its position, with some analysts suggesting it could become an "Asian version of Ukraine" [16] Group 4 - The stakes of this investment extend beyond immediate trade relations, as South Korea's future may hinge on the outcome of U.S.-China competition, with potential benefits of becoming a core ally if the U.S. maintains an advantage [18] - Conversely, if the U.S. fails, South Korea risks losing a key economic partner and facing severe impacts on its domestic industries due to premature alignment [20] - The high-profile nature of President Lee's visit, including symbolic gifts, emphasizes the commitment to this strategic gamble, with the substantial investment plan being the most significant aspect [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [64]. Core Insights - The low-altitude sector is currently in a position to rebound, supported by ongoing catalysts since the second half of the year and new directions in the Sino-US competition [4][33]. - The low-altitude economy index increased by 1.03% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.84% [3][16]. - The sector is awaiting significant catalysts, as it has been relatively stagnant since the beginning of the year, with the broader market reaching new highs [4][32]. - The establishment of a leadership group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China for general aviation and low-altitude economy indicates promising future policies [4][33]. - Infrastructure development and the application of drones in various sectors are key focuses for the low-altitude economy this year [5][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Weekly Insights - The low-altitude economy index rose by 1.03%, ranking 138 out of 330 sectors, indicating a better performance than the overall market [3][16]. - The top five gainers in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets included Aerospace Hongtu (up 45.29%) and Changyuan Donggu (up 19.30%) [3][19]. - The sector is currently lacking major catalysts, with some companies experiencing significant stock price corrections due to average mid-term report performances [4][32]. Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the opening of low-altitude flight demonstration projects in Guangzhou and the publication of an agricultural drone industry white paper [39][40]. - The government is actively promoting low-altitude economic projects, including the establishment of testing bases and the issuance of special bonds for infrastructure [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus areas include infrastructure companies such as Suzhou Planning and Lais Information, as well as drone-related companies like Henghe Precision and Tengya Precision [6][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure as a prerequisite for the low-altitude economy's emergence as a new industry [5][33].

Group 1 - In July, China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds by approximately 1 billion USD, signaling a complex dynamic in monetary policy decisions and interest rate paths [1] - The Federal Reserve's hesitation to lower interest rates may be influenced by speculation on whether China will sell off its US debt, which could lead to market volatility and rising yields [1] - The relationship between China's actions in the US bond market and the timing of interest rate cuts is perceived as a strategic variable in an ongoing game between the two nations [1] Group 2 - The tools available to the US for containing China's rise are becoming increasingly complex, with traditional methods like technology restrictions and supply chain control showing signs of instability [2] - The ongoing US-China competition raises questions about the solidity of America's leading advantages, suggesting a potential shift in dependency dynamics between the two countries [2] - The US Treasury Secretary's remarks highlight a fundamental characteristic of current US-China relations, indicating a lack of trust and misalignment on core interests [2] Group 3 - China is making significant advancements in high-end technology sectors, reducing its reliance on the US and even surpassing in certain areas [4] - The US's repeated delays in tariff negotiations reflect an increasing need for cooperation with China on critical issues such as agricultural markets and debt arrangements [4] - The evolving geopolitical landscape, with strengthened ties between China, Russia, and India, complicates the US's strategy to contain China, as regional players are becoming more influential [5] Group 4 - The dynamics of US-China relations are undergoing a fundamental shift, with the significance of future tariff agreements becoming more symbolic rather than decisive [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak seasons of “Golden September and Silver October” and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, copper prices are expected to rise due to the resonance of macro - and micro - factors, but there is also a risk of a short - term decline if expectations are not met. In the long term, the report is bullish on copper [6]. - Overall, the resilience of US macro data, Trump's active pressure, and the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September have led to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in copper prices. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the A - share bull market has siphoned funds from the commodity market. Fundamentally, supply disruptions in copper ore and the recovery of demand during the peak season, along with tight domestic copper social inventories, suggest that copper prices will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended to hold existing long copper positions and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. Enterprises should wait for high - price opportunities to conduct sell - hedging. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the China - US game and as a substitute for precious metals, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Indicators and Fed Policy**: The market is waiting for US inflation and employment data. The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, but it may be affected by inflation. Although the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing and previous data was revised downward, the number of unemployment benefit claimants has recently declined. The market expects the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to remain at a 2.6% increase. If the data is mild, the Fed may focus more on employment pressure; otherwise, the probability of a September rate cut may be reduced. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased the expectation of a September rate cut, with traders' probability bets exceeding 80%. The US dollar index has weakened, and copper prices have shown an upward trend [10]. - **Domestic Macroeconomic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. There is a short - term domestic policy vacuum period. Before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market was booming, siphoning funds from the commodity market. After the parade, market sentiment may cool down, and there is a risk of a decline in copper prices [13]. 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco's copper production is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, and Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are approaching the quota. China's copper concentrate imports in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but port inventories are significantly lower than the historical average. The global production and capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates have declined. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted [34]. - **Scrap Copper**: The scrap copper market has a tight supply. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has a narrow fluctuation, weakening the substitution effect of scrap copper and stimulating refined copper consumption. Domestic scrap copper supply has increased in the first half of the year, while imported scrap copper has decreased slightly. The production of blister copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic and imported blister copper are at historical lows [38]. - **Refined Copper**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that production will decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. The supply gap of refined copper in 2025 has narrowed, showing a tight balance. The import of refined copper has increased in July, and the import window has opened recently. The ICSG reported a supply surplus in the global copper market from January to June 2025, but the surplus has narrowed [43]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, downstream copper processing enterprises were in a traditional off - season, with lower operating rates. The operating rates of most copper product enterprises decreased in July, except for the copper foil industry [49]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for electricity and new energy vehicles has shown resilience. From January to July, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations performed well. The real estate market is still in a difficult situation. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. The performance of household appliances is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [54]. 3. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - level**: The release of US inflation and employment data is imminent. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, there is a risk of reversals. The market sentiment is cautious. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the LPR remains unchanged. After the military parade in early September, market sentiment may decline, and attention should be paid to domestic and international macro - data [74]. - **Fundamental - level**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. Although China's electrolytic copper production increased in July, it may decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. With the approaching peak seasons and inventory replenishment, demand is expected to recover. Globally, copper inventories have increased monthly, but domestic copper social inventories are low. The short - term contradiction in the copper market is the weak reality of inventory accumulation after the US copper tariff TACO versus the strong expectation of inventory depletion during the peak season. The medium - term contradiction lies in the interference of copper concentrates and the inverted TC versus the high elasticity of refined copper supply. The long - term contradiction is the global economic concerns caused by China - US confrontation versus the booming demand for green copper in the power and new energy sectors [74].

Core Insights - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) has attracted significant foreign investment into Chinese assets, with the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate surging past 7.12, marking a new high since November 2024 [1][3][24] - The capital influx is driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a depreciation of the US dollar and increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [5][7][10] - The ongoing economic competition between China and the US has intensified, with both countries engaging in a broader strategic contest that includes trade and regulatory battles [14][16][20] Group 1: Currency and Investment Trends - The RMB's recent appreciation has resulted in a notable increase in foreign capital entering the Chinese stock market, with net inflows exceeding 10 billion RMB in a single day [3][7] - Key sectors attracting foreign investment include technology and renewable energy, reflecting a shift in perception of Chinese assets from a safe haven to a growth opportunity [7][20] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a favorable environment for RMB assets, as the interest rate differential between China and the US narrows [5][10] Group 2: US Economic Concerns - The US is experiencing internal challenges, including political maneuvers that threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could further destabilize the dollar [9][10][12] - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 10% since January 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency [10][12] - The current US administration is attempting to address economic issues through various strategies, including increasing oil production and urging Congress to raise the debt ceiling, indicating a reactive rather than proactive approach [12][20] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - The competition between China and the US has evolved from trade disputes to a more comprehensive struggle over global economic rules and standards [14][16] - China's manufacturing competitiveness is bolstered by substantial R&D investments, which are expected to continue driving growth in key sectors such as semiconductors [14][16] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with both nations seeking to redefine their roles in global supply chains and economic partnerships, as evidenced by China's initiatives like RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative [16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - **Bullish**: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - **Bearish**: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - **Neutral with upward pressure**: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - **Zinc**: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - **Nickel**: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - **New Energy Metals**: - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - **Logic**: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - **Logic**: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - **Logic**: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is recommended for short - term observation and long - term strategic allocation. Silver is recommended for rebound buying. Copper is recommended to hold long positions. Zinc is recommended for rebound short - selling. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to have short - term rebounds. Industrial silicon is expected to move in a range, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short term, gold has limited upward space due to the lack of concentrated risk events, while in the long run, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, with a potential long - term bull market. Silver has an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Copper is expected to be strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run. Zinc is under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply. Aluminum prices rebound due to downstream destocking. Nickel prices stabilize and rise due to a warm macro - environment. Lithium carbonate has a de - stocking expectation and is recommended for low - buying [6][10][14][18][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased rate - cut expectations and slowed trading sentiment, the gold and silver markets are consolidating [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Overseas markets focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about the German economy, increasing European rate - cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions are easing. In the short term, gold has a low probability of breaking through the range, while in the long term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770 and pay attention to the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 and pay attention to the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will oscillate upwards [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, and London copper resumes trading after a one - day holiday [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper and look for opportunities to go long on dips. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78500, 81000] yuan/ton, and London copper focuses on [9750, 9950] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc gaps down and moves lower overnight, and London zinc resumes trading after a one - day holiday [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and demand is weak due to factors such as tariffs and the off - season [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is weak and oscillating in the short - term, and maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds in the long - term. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22000, 22600], and London zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious rate - cut expectations overseas, with a decrease in production costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend short - term profit - taking and observation for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the downstream开工 rate. The main operating range is [20000 - 21000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilize, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - sentiment is warm. Nickel ore prices are weak, and refined nickel production increases with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel's destocking effect is weakening, and it still faces pressure in the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend profit - taking and observation for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and closes low with a slight increase in positions, closing down 0.3% [21]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply increases slightly, and demand is picking up as the peak season approaches. Total inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [79000 - 81000] [23].