Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing disruptions due to tariffs and shadow Fed policies, potentially opening a breakthrough window for gold prices [1] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact amid concerns over global monetary credit, public debt, and geopolitical tensions [1] - The copper processing fee is recovering amid expectations of reduced smelting, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to domestic and international favorable policies [2] - Lithium prices are rebounding strongly due to ongoing supply disruptions, while silicon prices are expected to remain volatile without significant improvements in the fundamentals [2] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold has been included in the category of imported goods subject to tariffs, leading to a temporary price surge above $3,500 per ounce on COMEX [1] - The U.S. government is expected to clarify that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, which may stabilize the market [1] - The price difference between COMEX gold and London gold has narrowed to $4.9 per ounce as of August 8 [1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventories increased by 35,400 tons, with significant production increases in China [2] - **Aluminum**: The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.05 million tons, with mixed production trends in the aluminum rod industry [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions and increased production [2] - **Silicon**: The average cost of metal silicon is 10,028.9 yuan per ton, with a slight increase in production but overall supply exceeding demand [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xinyi Silver Tin - Shengda Resources - Zijin Mining - Shandong Gold - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Yintai Gold - Zhaojin Mining [1][2]

Tax Origin and Characteristics - Tariffs originated as a form of transit tax, primarily for controlling the movement of goods and maintaining border security[2] - Historically, tariffs were not significant in fiscal systems until the rise of international trade in the 16th century[2] Evolution of Tariff Functions - The function of tariffs has evolved from revenue collection to industry protection and economic regulation, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies[3] - Five distinct phases of tariff evolution are identified, with the latest phase (2018-present) marked by a resurgence of protectionism under the Trump administration[4][24] Global Economic Dependence on Tariffs - Countries are categorized based on their reliance on tariff revenue: low dependence (below 3%), medium dependence (3%-5%), and high dependence (above 5%)[5][25] - Developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have low tariff revenue reliance, with figures such as 1.2% for the US and 0.5% for Japan in 2022[5][28] Medium Dependence Economies - Countries like India and Vietnam show medium dependence on tariffs, with tariff revenue constituting 4.1% and 3.1% of national fiscal income respectively in 2022[6][31] High Dependence Economies - The Philippines exemplifies high dependence on tariffs, with 18.1% of its national fiscal income derived from tariffs in 2022, significantly higher than other nations[6][33] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global trade policies and shifts in international economic and political landscapes[7]

Market Overview - The US service sector is facing challenges as the US stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, Nasdaq up 3.73%, and S&P 500 up 2.43% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 2.58%, while Germany's DAX 30 and France's CAC 40 fell by 1.58% and 1.72% respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to be a major focus, especially in light of recent tariffs and weak employment data, which have increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The UK central bank's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to increased attention on the UK’s GDP data for Q2, which will be released soon [1][4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced their largest weekly decline since late June, with WTI crude oil at $63.88 per barrel (down 5.1%) and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel (down 4.4%) [3] - Gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the latest close at $3,397.28 per ounce, reflecting a 1.02% increase for the week [3] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is nearing its end, with significant reports expected from companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase [1][2] - Notable companies reporting this week include Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere [2][5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to be a major focus for the market, particularly in light of recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on multiple economies, which may influence inflation [3] - The U.S. services sector is facing challenges, with the ISM services PMI indicating a significant rise in the prices paid index, suggesting inflation remains a critical concern [3] - The U.K. central bank recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and the upcoming GDP data for Q2 will be closely monitored to assess economic performance [5] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Financial Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase set to release their financial results [1][3] - Other companies of interest during this earnings period include Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere [3] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - International oil prices experienced their largest weekly decline since late June, with WTI crude oil at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.1%, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.4% [4] - Gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the New York Mercantile Exchange near-month contract closing at $3,397.28 per ounce, up 1.02% for the week [4] - The widening price gap between U.S. gold futures and spot prices indicates potential impacts on trading dynamics, particularly concerning Swiss gold refining and transportation [4]

地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 一、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：发达市场悉数回弹，焦煤价格再度上行 来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源宏观） 发达市场悉数下跌，焦煤价格再度上行。当周，标普500上涨2.4%，纳斯达克指数上涨3.9%；10Y美债收益率上行4.0bp至4.3%；美元指数下跌0.4%至 98.27，离岸人民币升值至7.1890；WTI原油下跌7.8%至63.9美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.3%至3403.5美元/盎司。 美国宣布半导体关税，对印度加征二级关税。8月6日，美国以俄油问题为由，对印度商品再加征25%关税，合计达50%，8月28日起生效；8月7日，美国 宣布将对所有进口半导体芯片征收100%关税，但在美国设厂或承诺设厂的企业可豁免，但半导体关税范围仍不清晰。 特朗普提名米兰成为美联储理事，关注下周公布的7月美国CPI。7月美国ISM服务业PMI为50.1，低于市场预期的51.5；下周二（8月12日）即将公布美国7 月CPI，彭博一致预期显示核心CPI环比为0.3%；德国7月工业生产环比-1.9%，弱于市场预期。 当周，发达市场股指悉数上涨、新兴 ...

l l [1] y -- i I E l 脑 e 国 t 连锁反应正在多个领域蔓延。美国零售业前七个月累计裁员八万多人，同比激增百分之二百四十九，众多零售商将关店裁员归咎于关税压力、通胀及消费需 求疲软。汽车制造商七月宣布裁员四千九百多人，创下去年十一月以来新高，同样直指关税冲击。非营利组织则因联邦预算削减陷入困境，年内裁员一万七 千八百多人，同比增幅高达百分之四百一十三。 美国就业市场正经历一场静默海啸。美国人力资源机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas最新报告显示，七月份全美企业宣布裁员人数大幅升至六万两千多人， 较去年同期大增百分之一百四十，创下十年来同期第二高位，仅次于二零二零年疫情高峰期。这一数字比六月的四万七千多人增加百分之二十九，标志着美 国夏季就业市场传统平静期被彻底打破。 科技行业成为裁员重灾区。短短一个月内，人工智能直接导致超一万个岗位消失，而今年以来关税因素已冲击近六千个就业岗位。英特尔宣布将全球员工削 减百分之十五，微软启动年内第二轮大裁员，波及九千名员工。令人深思的是，微软CEO纳德拉在内部信中坦言，这些裁员发生在企业"历史上最成功的时 刻"，并呼吁留下的员工" ...

特朗普提名米兰成为美联储理事，关注下周公布的7月美国CPI。 7月美国ISM服务业PMI为50.1，低于市场预期的51.5；下周二（8月12日）即将公布美国7月 CPI，彭博一致预期显示核心CPI环比为0.3%；德国7月工业生产环比-1.9%，弱于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 发达市场悉数下跌，焦煤价格再度上行。 当周，标普500上涨2.4%，纳斯达克指数上涨3.9%；10Y美债收益率上行4.0bp至4.3%；美元指数下跌0.4%至98.27， 离岸人民币升值至7.1890；WTI原油下跌7.8%至63.9美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.3%至3403.5美元/盎司。 美国宣布半导体关税，对印度加征二级关税。 8月6日，美国以俄油问题为由，对印度商品再加征25%关税，合计达50%，8月28日起生效；8月7日，美国宣布 将对所有进口半导体芯片征收100%关税，但在美国设厂或承诺设厂的企业可豁免，但半导体关税范围仍不清晰。 当周，发达市场股指悉数上涨、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy has not yet materialized, leading to questions about the accuracy of economists' predictions regarding economic downturns due to tariffs [1][4][6]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists predict that tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers, leading to inflation and reduced consumer spending, which could result in a recession [3][4]. - Current economic indicators show signs of stagnation, with growth slowing and inflation rising, attributed to multiple factors rather than solely the tariffs [5][6]. Quantitative Analysis - The Yale Budget Lab forecasts a 0.5 percentage point reduction in U.S. economic growth due to tariffs, equating to a loss of approximately $150 billion, or $1,000 per household annually [6][7]. - Despite the tariffs, the U.S. economy remains relatively stable, with the stock market reaching new highs, partly due to advancements in artificial intelligence [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is mitigated by the country's diverse economy, where imports constitute only 11% of GDP, and the strength of the service sector [9][12]. - The overall effect of tariffs on inflation is evident, with prices for certain goods rising while others, like gasoline, have decreased due to global economic pressures [10][12]. Long-term Considerations - The full economic effects of tariffs will take time to manifest, and the situation may worsen as tariffs continue to be implemented [12][14]. - The challenges posed by tariffs extend beyond immediate economic losses, potentially undermining foundational aspects of U.S. growth such as trade, immigration, and innovation [13][14].

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, while year-on-year it remained flat; the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decrease for the first time since March, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6% [1] Healthcare Standards - The National Medical Insurance Administration has released the first national standard in the healthcare sector, titled "Technical Specifications for Convenient Services of Medical Insurance Information Platform," which will be implemented on January 1, 2026, marking a significant milestone in the standardization of medical insurance in China [2] Robotics Industry - The global robotics industry experienced explosive growth in the first half of the year, with domestic manufacturers seeing average growth rates between 50% and 100%, a rare occurrence in the industry’s history [3] - The CEO of Yushutech emphasized that while current hardware is not perfect, it is sufficient for present needs, with future improvements focused on reducing costs and enhancing reliability [3] Trade and Tariffs - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has surged to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year, marking the highest level since 1933 [3][4] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing the negative impact of recent tariff adjustments on global trade prospects [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, indicating potential adverse effects on the economy and the company's operations [2][3][10]. Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported strong operating results for Q2, but investors were disappointed by the lack of stock repurchases [2]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including nearly $300 billion in equities, significant insurance and energy assets, and a major railroad, providing strong visibility into the broader economy [11]. Tariff Concerns - The report specifically mentioned President Trump's tariffs, with Buffett previously describing tariffs as "an act of war" and a tax on goods [3][6]. - Current tariff rates are significant, with imports facing rates of 15% to 40%, which could impact inflation and business operations [7][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding changing tariff rates is causing businesses to pause hiring and capital expenditures, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Berkshire's operations [8][9]. Economic Implications - While inflation has not surged overall, it is beginning to appear in sectors affected by tariffs, such as apparel and appliances [13]. - There are concerns that prolonged uncertainty from tariffs could stall economic growth and lead to disinflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates [14]. - The market has been able to absorb tariff news so far, but increasing data may force a reevaluation of the situation [15].