1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

美联储最新公布的六月会议纪要，向市场清晰传递了一个信号：关于何时降息，决策者们正站在一道因关税而变得模糊不清的岔路口上。 会议记录揭示，美联储官员们在利率前景判断上出现明显分化，分歧的核心源头直指贸易政策。与会者们坦言，关于关税对通胀影响的时点、程度和持续 性，仍存在"相当大的不确定性"。这种不确定性直接导致了政策路径判断的差异。 在会议室内，一部分观点认为，加征关税可能只会带来一次性的价格上生，不会动摇长期通胀预期；但另一部分声音——会议纪要明确标注为"多数与会 者"——则担忧关税效应可能更为顽固，对通胀产生持续性的推升压力。这种根本性判断差异，深刻体现在会后那份备受瞩目的利率预测"点阵图"上：十九 位政策制定者中，十人预计今年至少降息两次，两人预计降息一次，而仍有七人坚持认为年内利率应维持不变。 尽管存在这些降息的声音，会议纪要同时揭示了一种广泛共识下的审慎耐心。大多数政策制定者认同，年内"适当降低"政策利率是合适的。然而，他们普遍 认为，美国当前整体稳定的经济状况——被描述为增长"稳健"、失业率"较低"——赋予了美联储在利率调整时机上保持观察的空间。 "与会者一致认为，尽管通胀和经济前景的不确定性已有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the U.S. government is expected to significantly impact copper prices and various sectors of the U.S. economy, leading to increased costs and potential inflationary pressures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Immediate Market Reaction - On July 9, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025, which led to a sharp increase in copper prices, with COMEX copper prices rising over 2% initially and even spiking 17% at one point [1][4]. - The tariff announcement has caused a premium of approximately 25% for New York copper prices over the international benchmark LME prices, indicating heightened market volatility and speculation [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The copper tariff is likely to escalate costs across multiple sectors in the U.S. economy, particularly in electronics, automotive, construction, and data centers, as nearly half of the copper consumed in the U.S. is imported, primarily from Chile [3][4]. - Economic experts have expressed concerns that while the tariff may not effectively reduce national security risks, it will lead to increased costs and inflation, adversely affecting economic growth [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - Traders are rapidly moving to ship copper to the U.S. before the tariff takes effect, with some adjusting shipping routes to places like Hawaii and Puerto Rico to expedite deliveries [7][8]. - The current speculative environment in the COMEX copper market is strong, with expectations that the price differential between COMEX and LME copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% [5][7]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties and Adjustments - Despite the announced tariff, there are uncertainties regarding its implementation details, such as which types of copper will be affected, leading to speculation that the tariff may serve as a negotiation tool rather than a definitive policy [9]. - Historical precedents suggest that previously implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum allowed for exemptions on goods already in transit, which may provide some flexibility for traders facing the new copper tariff [9].

本文来自：肖小跑，原文标题：《美国那些被预言会遭"毁灭性打击"的经济指标，怎么看起来越来越健康?》，头图来自：视觉中国 今天写点大家可能不爱听的。 当懂王"解放日"宣布全球关税政策时，专家们的预测几乎是一边倒的：通胀会飙升，失业率会上升，股市会崩盘，小企业会倒闭。我当时也觉得这逻辑挺合 理的——关税就是税，最终还是消费者买单。 这时候考验经济学家"成功预测过去五次衰退中的九次"技能的时候到了：且看大家会用何种姿势继续坚持自己逻辑。比如"莫急，真正的影响还没开始，等 企业库存消化完，等关税真正传导到终端，你们就知道厉害了。" 但这次可能还真的不太一样。 这次的问题不在于经济学家是不是有真功夫，而在于我们已经生活在两个平行宇宙里——一个是由数据构成的真实世界，另一个是由叙事构成的媒体世界。 最近看到一个特别有意思的图表，来自美国小企业联合会的调查。把调查问题分成两类：一类是"硬数据"（就业数据、投资活动、消费等），另一类是"软 数据"（比如对未来的情绪、预期、信心）。 但几个月过去了，美国失业率依然保持在4.1%的历史低位，GDP预期2.5%，股市像什么都没发生一样又创了新高。那些被预言要承受"毁灭性打击"的经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing anxiety within Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystem, particularly around TSMC, due to ongoing tariff threats from the Trump administration, prompting significant investment plans to mitigate these impacts [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Investment Strategy - TSMC has announced plans to invest over $100 billion (approximately 137 trillion KRW) to address the tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration [1]. - Since 2020, TSMC's total investment in the U.S. has reached $165 billion (around 240 trillion KRW), with an initial commitment of $65 billion (about 94 trillion KRW) for three factories in Arizona, later increasing this by an additional $100 billion for production facilities [2]. Group 2: Industry Response and Concerns - The Taiwanese manufacturing sector, including TSMC's supply chain partners, is formulating strategies to cope with U.S. tariffs, expressing concerns about potential adverse effects on their operations [1]. - There is a growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among industry players regarding the ongoing tariff situation, with fears that excessive tax rates could severely impact their competitiveness [1]. - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also developing strategies in response to the tariff threats, with Samsung building a foundry in Texas and SK Hynix planning a semiconductor packaging facility in Indiana, although they have not disclosed specific investment plans related to memory semiconductor production [2][3].

联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：巴西遭加征 50%关税，国内物价仍偏弱运行 海外方面，特朗普第二轮征税新增八国，对巴西加征 50%关税创本轮最高，巴西雷亚尔 一度下跌近 3%；欧盟正与美方协商削减关税、设定配额，以减轻汽车业冲击，虽谈判取得 进展，但短期内全面减免关税仍存难度。6 月美联储纪要缓解市场担忧，关税通胀或不构成 年内降息障碍，市场风险偏好持续回升，纳指再创历史新高，"美债发行潮"风险缓解推动 10Y 美债利率回落至 4.33%，美元指数震荡走弱，金价震荡收涨，铜价调整。 国内：6 月 CPI 同比转正至 0.1%，核心 CPI 回升，主因油价等消费品反弹；PPI 降幅扩 大至-3.6%，创近 2 年新低，地产黑色系拖累明显，侧面印证了近期反内卷、优化供给端政 策的必要性。国务院发文加码"稳就业"，扩大稳岗扩岗贷款覆盖，提高失业保险返还比例。 目前经济处于温和窄幅波动、政策预期发酵的阶段，关注近期将发布的 Q2 经济数据及月末 政策窗口期。A 股高开低走，上证指数突破 3500 前高后回落， ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 免责声明 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 2022.500 32.3↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1401.1 | +18.70↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 621.40 -1.10↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 466.10 | +7.30↑ | | | EC合约基差 -10.00↓ | 235.54 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -403↓ | 30945 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 134.80↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 2258.04 | 1,557.77 | 61.42↑ | | | SCFI（综合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

智通财经APP获悉，据分析公司Crisil Coalition Greenwich的预测，随着交易员从美国关税政策的变化中 获利，包括美国顶级银行在内的全球银行预计将在市场收入方面实现10%的增长。 据悉，这一预测是在12全球家银行第一季度交易收入增长15%的基础上得出的。这12家全球银行包括摩 根大通(JPM.US)、美国银行(BAC.US)、花旗(C.US)、高盛(GS.US)、摩根士丹利(MS.US)、富国银行 (WFC.US)以及一些欧洲竞争对手。美国银行和花旗的高管上月表示，继第一季度强劲表现之后，预计 第二季度市场收入将实现中至高个位数百分比的增长。 一些高管和分析人士表示，当美国大型银行下周公布第二季度财报时，其市场收入甚至可能超出这些预 期。来自电子交易平台Tradeweb Markets的数据显示，这种增长是在美国总统特朗普4月份宣布关税政策 之后出现的，该政策引发了股票市场的波动，并推动美国国债市场成交量创下历史新高。运营利率、信 用、股票和货币市场电子交易平台的Tradeweb Markets报告称，4月份的日均成交量同比增长38.6%至2.7 万亿美元，并在3月创下2.71万亿美元的历 ...

隔夜，现货黄金在触及近两周低点3382.61后强势反弹，收报3313.38美元，展现出强劲的回升动能。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，目前在3324美元附近 徘徊。 这意味着，美联储内部对通胀预期、利率前景的分歧日益显现。 机构分析指出，美联储6月会议纪要反映出对未来通胀路径的激烈讨论，对价格走势的不确定性显著升温。 美联储内部分歧明显！ 隔夜，美国三大股指全线收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.49%，报44458.3点；标普500指数涨0.61%，报6263.26点；纳指涨0.94%，报20611.34点，创历史新 高。 消息面上，美联储6月会议纪要公布，经济前景不确定性居高不下。 北京时间7月10日凌晨2点，美联储发布了今年6月的会议纪要，其中显示，美联储官员一致同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。参会 官员们一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然 略高。经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 由于关税政策在经济中的传导路径及贸易谈判的不同结果，美联储官员们对其通胀影响持不同观点。 部分参会官员认为，关 ...