投资者获利回吐叠加特朗普政府暂缓对关键矿产征收关税，令一年多来涨势凶猛的白银从纪录高位回撤。 现货白银一度跌超7%，不过尾盘收复大部分跌幅。 在完成长达数月的国家安全审查后，特朗普政府决定暂不对包括白银和铂金在内的关键矿产征收全面关税，转而寻求双边谈判并考虑设定价格底线。 这一决定显著缓解了市场对美国采取全面关税措施的担忧，此前关税预期曾促使大量白银库存留在美国仓库，助推了2025年的全球轧空行情。 见闻君在1月9日的文章中提及 ，白银大概率避免关税，或将面临价格修正。 文章援引花旗观点称， 由于美国对进口白银严重依赖，花旗研究团队倾向于白银不征收关税的基本情景。 从历史高位的租赁利率可以看出，目前美国以外市 场，白银正处于严重的实物短缺状态。而无关税将激励金属从美国流出，缓解全球市场紧张， 白银价格可能面临临时性回调压力。 尽管短期出现剧烈波动，华尔街策略师仍 看好白银中期前景 。华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong表示，供应缺口、工业消费以及来自黄金的溢出需求将继续 支撑银价，但近期走势速度之快意味着，短期内需要保持谨慎。 白银在周四连续第四日刷新盘中历史高位后急跌，前四个交易日累涨超20%。今 ...

1月15日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜从纪录高位回落，因美元走强以及对美国可能对铜加 征关税的担忧有所缓解。 伦敦时间1月15日17:00(北京时间1月16日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌82.5美元，或0.63%，收报每吨 13,106.0美元。 LME现货铜较三个月期铜升水已从周二的每吨约90美元降至约28美元，表明对金属的迫切需求有所减 少。 | | 1月15日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | | 13,106.00 ↓ -82.50 ↓ -0.63% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,167.50 | -18.50 -0.58% | | 三个月期锌 | 3.314.50 1 | +38.50 ↑ +1.18% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,099.50 1 | +21.00 ↑ +1.01% | | 三个月期镇 | 18,569.00 -125.00 -0.67% | | | 三个月期锡 | 52,031.00 -1,431.00 ↓ -2.68% | | 特朗普暂缓关键矿产关税， ...

Core Insights - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for December increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [1] - Food prices have significantly risen, contradicting claims from the Trump administration that grocery prices are decreasing [3][13] Food Price Trends - Over the past year, beef prices rose by 16.4%, coffee by 19.8%, lettuce by 7.3%, and frozen fish by 8.6% [3][13] - The overall cost of household food consumption increased by 2.4% in the past 12 months, with a monthly increase of 0.7% in December, marking the largest monthly rise since October 2022 [4][14] - Despite some food categories like eggs seeing a price drop of 20.9%, five out of six tracked food categories experienced price increases [5][15] Consumer Behavior Changes - Low-income consumers are prioritizing essential items and opting for cheaper alternatives, reducing their purchase quantities and increasing shopping frequency [5][15] - Middle-class consumers are also shifting their purchasing habits, focusing on promotions and store-brand products to save costs [5][15] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Tariff policies have had a limited direct impact on most food prices, as the majority of food consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced [5][15] - Imported goods like coffee and tropical fruits have seen price increases due to tariffs, with bananas rising by 5.9% year-on-year in December [7][16] Labor Market and Agricultural Costs - Labor shortages in agriculture are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, affecting the availability of workers for harvesting crops [10][20] - Agricultural labor costs are a significant driver of overall industry expenses, accounting for about 50% of total spending [20] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 2.3% increase in household food prices by 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate as in 2025 [19] Economic Outlook - The current inflation data suggests that while inflation is not spiraling out of control, the claims of decreasing food prices by the government are unfounded [4][14] - The ongoing labor shortages and rising costs of agricultural inputs may continue to pressure food prices in the near future [20]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 1． 以25%销售额抽成为条件 批准英伟达对华出口H200芯片——特朗普1月14日签署行政命令，将在芯 片最终运往中国客户和其他海外市场之前，在进口到美国的环节征收25%关税，其中就包括英伟达的 H200芯片和AMD的MI325X芯片。 2． 在关键矿产关税问题上释放缓和信号 但并未完全松口——经过数月的"232调查"，特朗普决定暂时 不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，将寻求与外国通过谈判达成协议以确保充足供应。但特朗普指出，美国 将考虑为关键矿产贸易设定价格底线等。 3． 称伊朗"杀戮"已停止 或暗示暂缓对伊军事行动——特朗普表示，他已得到保证，伊朗将停止"杀 戮"抗议者，这一表态暗示他可能暂缓对伊朗抗议事件采取的军事回应。但特朗普补充说，如果镇压继 续，他将"非常不满"。 4． 美国最高法院再次未就特朗普关税的合法性作出裁决——美国最高法院周三未就特朗普总统关税政 策合法性作出裁决，法院尚未公布下一次意见发布的时间，但可能会安排在下周二或周三。 5． 暂无计划解雇鲍威尔 但下定论还"为时尚早"——特朗普表示，尽管司法部正在 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the dual pressure faced by the Trump administration, with aggressive tariff measures aimed at reshaping international trade dynamics while simultaneously confronting significant domestic legal risks [1] - On January 12, Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, indicating a broad punitive measure that targets global trade, including China, and reflects a political rather than economic rationale [3] - The announcement of tariffs has raised concerns about the potential legal challenges from the U.S. Supreme Court, which may rule against the administration's authority to impose such tariffs, leading to significant financial repercussions [4] Group 2 - The internal division within the U.S. government regarding the tariff policy is evident, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that the U.S. could handle potential refunds, contrasting with Trump's alarm over the financial implications of the tariffs [6] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on January 14 will be crucial in determining the legality of the tariffs, which could undermine the administration's ability to impose such measures in the future [8] - The article emphasizes that the aggressive tariff strategy may not yield the desired international concessions and could instead exacerbate domestic legal and economic risks, reflecting a precarious balance between external pressure and internal consequences [10]

特朗普在1月12日的社交媒体发帖中警告，如果最高法院对关税法做出不利裁决，美国财政将面临无法承受的巨大退款压力。这一言论直接指向了国际紧急 经济权力法，这是他全球关税政策的法律基础。虽然原定于1月9日作出裁决，但结果被推迟，这让市场反应剧烈，导致道琼斯指数一度下跌超过2%。白宫 内部也承认，如果最终裁决不利，潜在的赔偿金额，包括企业避税损失，可能高达万亿美元。特朗普的关税政策自2025年起将对全球贸易伙伴实施，针对中 国的税率一度高达145%，原本意图通过这种方式减少逆差。然而，多国的反击使得美国企业的利益受损。法院正审查特朗普是否滥用了总统的紧急权力， 大法官们在去年11月的庭审中一致对这种长期适用性表示质疑。与此同时，欧盟也出台了新规定，允许中国电动车企业通过承诺最低价来避免高关税，这使 得中欧贸易重新回到了规则的轨道上，形成了与美国单边行动的鲜明对比。 国内方面，共和党内部分议员公开反对特朗普的政策，参议院通过了一项法案，限制总统对委内瑞拉的军事干预，党内五票的支持无疑是对特朗普的反叛信 号。特朗普对法院不利判决的威胁引发了法学界的激烈讨论，是否这已经超越了对法治的挑战。司法部对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，指责 ...

Group 1 - Trump's aggressive tariff policies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing have led to increased costs for consumers, with household expenses rising by hundreds of dollars monthly due to a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, contributing to inflation rates climbing from 3% to 4.5% [1][3] - The automotive industry faced significant challenges, with General Motors delaying new car launches and a reduction in worker overtime, while agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, dropped by 40%, severely impacting farmers' incomes [3][4] - The trade war has resulted in a 15% decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China, with Brazil and Argentina filling the market gap, leading to a 10% increase in bankruptcy rates among small businesses in the U.S. [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, with GDP growth expectations dropping from 2% to 1.6%, as domestic demand weakens and consumer confidence declines by 15% [4][13] - The trade war has led to a net loss of 70,000 manufacturing jobs, with many workers transitioning to lower-paying service jobs, while the unemployment rate increased from 4% to 4.4% [3][12] - By the end of 2025, the inflation contribution from tariffs reached 1.5%, and investment willingness among businesses significantly decreased, while the U.S. manufacturing index fell below 50, indicating economic shrinkage [10][11] Group 3 - Trump's tariffs have resulted in a 25% increase in battery costs for electric vehicles, slowing down the U.S. renewable energy sector and prompting consumers to shift towards public transportation [10] - The overall trade deficit only decreased by 11%, while exports fell by 18%, indicating a persistent economic struggle for the U.S. [11] - The trade policies have led to a significant decline in consumer quality of life, with rising protest sentiments and political crises brewing as Trump's approval ratings fell below 40% [12][15]

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a sudden drop, falling nearly 6% to below $88 per ounce, primarily due to President Trump's recent actions and profit-taking by investors [1] - Trump's decision to delay new tariffs on key mineral imports alleviated market concerns about potential tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium, although he did not rule out future measures [3] - The decline in silver prices also led to a rapid decrease in gold prices, which fell to approximately $4586 per ounce, down $40 for the day [1] Group 2 - Trump's announcement of negotiating bilateral agreements to ensure adequate supply of key minerals has temporarily eased market fears regarding tariffs [3] - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities noted that the government's approach will be more targeted and "surgical," reducing concerns about broad measures that could inadvertently affect physical silver bars [3] - The strong performance of precious metals at the beginning of the year was supported by Trump's threats to the Federal Reserve, prompting a shift of funds towards alternative value-storing assets [6]

狂飙的"铜博士"，突遭警告。 今日盘中，沪铜主力合约直线跳水，一度大跌近3%；外盘基本金属也多数杀跌，其中伦铜一度大跌超2%。消息面上，高盛警告称，铜价此轮 大幅上涨行情已基本见顶，后续面临回调风险的可能性日益增大。 因铜广泛的应用领域和对经济周期的敏感性，其被称为"铜博士"，在此之前，铜价持续飙涨，不断创出历史新高。展望后市，花旗研究团队在 最新发表的研报中直言："1月可能是铜价格2026年全年的高点。" "铜博士"直线跳水 1月15日午后，沪铜主力合约直线跳水，日内一度大跌近3%，截至发稿，跌幅达2.21%，报101870元/吨。 高盛认为，此前铜价的飙升主要由美国关税预期引发的囤货潮及投机资金推动，为市场带来了暂时的"稀缺溢价"。鉴于通胀关切将是中期选举 前的关键问题，特朗普政府将铜进口关税的决定推迟到明年的风险加大。 花旗也警告称，一旦关税政策的走向趋于明朗，美国市场囤积的金属库存或将重新流向全球市场，这将缓解其他地区的实物供应压力，并对金 属价格形成压制。 另外，高盛还在最新发布的报告中表示，铜价此轮大幅上涨行情已基本见顶，后续面临回调风险的可能性日益增大；随着印尼新的供应在2026 年末/2027 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is fluctuating near the monthly high of 0.8000, influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, US inflation data, and economic policy adjustments in Europe and the US [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly increased to around 99.17, close to the monthly high of 99.26 reached last week, indicating a recent stabilization and recovery of the dollar [3] - Market expectations have shifted regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a consensus that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range during the January meeting, following three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The Swiss franc (CHF) has shown overall stability without significant fluctuations, largely due to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) monetary policy stance, which is focused on domestic inflation levels [4] - The SNB is maintaining an interest rate of 0% due to persistently low inflation in Switzerland, which limits the motivation for any policy adjustments [4] - The low inflation environment constrains the SNB's ability to change its policy, resulting in a lack of clear directional guidance for the Swiss franc, which is exhibiting a stable fluctuation pattern [4]