Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Given that the economic data in October continued to weaken, which may boost the expectation of monetary easing and be beneficial to the bond market, investors are advised to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high in short - term trading [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures with maturities within 10 years fluctuated. T slightly rose, TF and TS slightly fell, while TL opened higher and closed significantly higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 35.51 billion yuan, with a net injection of 18.71 billion yuan [1] - A - share sentiment declined and continued to close lower, but it had little positive impact on the bond market. The official manufacturing PMI in October dropped significantly and was lower than expected, with new orders falling notably, indicating a contraction in demand and increased economic downward pressure, which pushed down long - term yields more significantly, while short - term interest rates declined to a limited extent [3] 3.2. Important Information - The official manufacturing PMI in October was 49, down from the previous value of 49.8. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, remaining in the expansion range and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level [2] - Pan Gongsheng stated that policies and tools to address macro - economic and financial market fluctuations are being studied and reserved, and the "involution - style" competition and fund idling in the financial industry are being continuously rectified [2] 3.3. Futures Contracts Data | Contract | Price on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Price on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Position on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Position Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.544 | 102.56 | - 0.016 | 84,178 | 84,235 | - 57 | | TF2512 | 106.065 | 106.075 | - 0.01 | 178,068 | 176,888 | 1,180 | | T2512 | 108.665 | 108.635 | 0.03 | 284,696 | 282,218 | 2,478 | | TL2512 | 116.64 | 116.19 | 0.45 | 182,844 | 183,707 | - 863 | [4] | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 31 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 30 | Basis Change | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 31 (lots) | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 30 (lots) | Trading Volume Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | - 0.0721 | - 0.0759 | 0.0038 | 30,841 | 33,991 | - 3,150 | | TF | - 0.0427 | - 0.0675 | 0.0248 | 51,145 | 54,366 | - 3,221 | | T | 0.1084 | - 0.0425 | 0.1509 | 66,178 | 68,993 | - 2,815 | | TL | 0.0476 | 0.0738 | - 0.0262 | 103,750 | 128,226 | - 24,476 | [6] 3.4. Other Market Data - The report also includes charts and data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of main Treasury bond futures contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - taking institution financing rates and policy rates, exchange financing rates, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, fund stratification, US Treasury yield trends, and the US - China yield spread and RMB exchange rate [7][10][11][13][16][18]

明年是"十五五"的开局之年，重大项目的建设和开工值得期待，"投资于人"的理念将得到更好地践行。 10月31日，据国家统计局数据显示，10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个 百分点。今年以来，制造业PMI总体处于偏低水平，但展望后期，有利因素逐渐增多，制造业PMI有望 逐步回升。 从整体来看，10月制造业PMI回落符合市场预期，主要原因有三：一是十月国庆假期和中秋假期相叠 加，休假时间较长，属于季节性影响因素造成的脉冲影响，11月即可恢复正常生产开工水平；二是10月 前半段国际贸易形势不确定性升高，部分企业风险偏好收缩，减少生产和投资扩张；三是制造业投资有 比较典型的"顺周期"特征，在整体投资增速放缓的前提下，制造业PMI也会相应受到影响。 从结构视角来看，首先是供需两侧。10月生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.7%和48.8%，表明生产和需 求两端均有同时放缓的倾向。今年以来，宏观经济"供强需弱"的情况比较突出，PMI中的生产分项指数 持续高于新订单分项。需要注意到，10月生产指数放缓，主要和长假期等季节性因素有关，经济整体的 产出和供给侧未发生重大变化，仍保持活跃态势。不过今年 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.39% to 65.09 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,600 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 902 lots to 577,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,545 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, Powell unexpectedly took a hawkish stance, reducing the probability of a 25BP rate cut in December, but it's still likely. After the China - U.S. summit in South Korea, there was some easing in tariffs. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated around 13,600 yuan per ton. The market sentiment was divided. Looking ahead, there are relatively optimistic expectations for the macro and fundamentals. The current supply peak will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose. Zhengzhou cotton has a bottom support, and the upward drive depends more on the macro level [1]. - For sugar, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the government of Uttar Pradesh will raise the sugar - cane price by up to 300 rupees per ton. The purchase price of early - maturing sugar - cane is set at 4,000 rupees per ton (equivalent to 321.24 yuan per ton), and that of ordinary varieties is 3,900 rupees per ton (equivalent to 313.21 yuan per ton). The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,660 - 5,750 yuan per ton, with only a few down 10 yuan per ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,590 - 5,640 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,790 - 5,950 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. The Fed's rate cut was in line with market expectations and had limited impact. Raw sugar continued to hit new lows on Thursday, lacking buying and a bottom - finding drive. Domestic Yunnan sugar mills have started crushing, and Guangxi will start in mid - November. Benefiting from restricted imports of syrup, the price shows strong resistance to decline, but the rebound is weak under the high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference should be watched [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by Fed's interest - rate policy and China - U.S. tariff relations. Domestically, the futures price fluctuates around 13,600 yuan per ton. There are optimistic expectations for the future, and the supply pressure will ease. Zhengzhou cotton has bottom support, and the upward drive depends on the macro level [1]. - **Sugar**: The government of Uttar Pradesh raises the sugar - cane price. The spot price of sugar has little change. Raw sugar hits new lows, and the domestic sugar price shows resistance to decline but weak rebound under high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,243 yuan, up 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,658 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan, and the national average is 14,843 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan, unchanged; the main - contract basis is 278 yuan, up 22 yuan. The spot price in Nanning and Liuzhou is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,434, down 26 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,228. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,658 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,873 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,954 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, down 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou was 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,541, down 84 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse - receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Core Viewpoint - The "China Economic Outlook" seminar highlighted the resilience and potential of China's economy amidst external uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policies and structural optimization for achieving annual targets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The National Development and Reform Commission's Macro Economic Research Institute reported that China's economy has shown strong resilience and steady progress in 2023, maintaining stable growth despite rising external uncertainties [1]. - The seminar discussed the macroeconomic situation, fiscal policy orientation, technological innovation, regional economic development, foreign trade, and future policy focus, with experts agreeing that the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session has provided a blueprint for high-quality economic development [2][6]. Group 2: New Analytical Platform - The "China Macroeconomic Monitoring, Forecasting, and Policy Evaluation Analysis Platform" was launched to provide dynamic monitoring, trend forecasting, and policy effect evaluation, combining effective market mechanisms with proactive government involvement [4]. - The platform integrates data collection, modeling algorithms, and visualization features, marking a significant step towards intelligent macroeconomic analysis [4]. Group 3: Future Economic Strategy - Experts emphasized the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, advocating for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations and social confidence [6]. - There is a call to continue promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading, optimizing regional economic layouts, and expanding high-level openness to solidify the recovery of the domestic economy [6].

中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权在致辞中表示，今年以来，我国经济运行顶住压力、稳中有进，体现出 强大韧性和潜力，在外部不确定性持续上升的背景下，我国经济总体保持平稳增长，结构优化持续推 进，科技创新加快赋能新质生产力发展，宏观政策协同效应不断显现，全年实现预期目标具备坚实基 础。 会议还发布了"中国宏观经济监测预测与政策评估分析平台"，旨在通过数据智能与模型分析，对宏观经 济运行态势进行动态监测、趋势预测与政策效果评估，为政府部门和研究机构提供决策参考和技术支 撑。 "中国经济怎么看"宏观经济形势秋季研讨会举办 中新网北京10月28日电 (记者 王梦瑶)10月28日，由中国宏观经济研究院与江西财经大学联合主办、民 进中央经济委员会协办的"中国经济怎么看"宏观经济形势秋季研讨会在北京举行，围绕我国前三季度经 济运行形势及下一阶段宏观政策方向展开研讨交流。 与会专家们一致认为，当前我国经济正处于结构调整和动能转换的关键阶段，要坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好发挥消费对畅通国民经济循环的作用。要积极实施更加有 力有效的宏观政策，稳定市场预期和社会信心，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism, and copper prices hit a new high this year. In the short - term, the negotiation rhythm will drive trading. The 9 - month CPI further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts in October, with 2 possible cuts this year and the Fed stopping balance - sheet reduction. - Tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may cut production. Downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 86,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot market trading became more active. Supply pressure is significant due to high domestic operating capacity and an open import window. Demand is weak, and the full - caliber inventory increased by 64,000 tons last week. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, cost support from the ore end is weakening. Short - term alumina prices will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices were strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance. Supply of ingots is restricted by the high direct - supply ratio of molten aluminum, and demand shows resilience in the peak season. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 626,000 tons on October 28. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices oscillated strongly, with cost support becoming more prominent. Tight scrap aluminum supply pushed up procurement costs, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Supply is restricted by raw - material circulation and policy uncertainty, and demand shows stable resilience. Inventory is decreasing. Short - term ADC12 prices will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The preliminary consensus between China and the US warms the macro - atmosphere, and zinc prices oscillated strongly. The supply - side logic of loose supply has spread from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and subsequent supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand is stable, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, supporting zinc prices. The export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. Short - term zinc prices have support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main contract should refer to 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees remain low. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month. The change in Myanmar's tax method is expected to limit the improvement of tin ore supply this year. Demand is still weak, and although AI and the photovoltaic industry drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Tin prices will oscillate strongly, and the follow - up depends on macro - changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated, and refined nickel prices rose slightly. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan brings policy expectations. Refined nickel production remains high. Ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and industry profits are shrinking. Stainless steel demand is weak, while downstream ternary materials still have restocking needs. Inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices will oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were slightly adjusted down. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, policies are mainly for stability. Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chromium - iron markets are weak. Supply pressure will increase in October, and demand improvement is not obvious. Social inventory is decreasing slowly. Short - term prices will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures were strong, with the main contract LC2601 rising 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. After entering the peak season, there is a supply - demand gap, which is expected to widen in October. Production is increasing, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. Downstream demand is optimistic, and raw - material inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices will run strongly, with the upper limit first observing the capital performance around 82,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and then 85,000 yuan/ton if it breaks through [16]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.08% to 88,520 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 15.30% to 4,379 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 25.97 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 786 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease; imports were 334,300 tons, a 26.50% month - on - month increase. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 678,100 tons. The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate decreased to 61.55%, while the recycled copper rod - making start - up rate increased to 18.29%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 184,500 tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.02% to 92,800 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 4.94% to 104,800 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.28% to 136,000 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 0.13% to 348,000 short tons; SHFE warrants increased by 0.92% to 35,400 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.24% to 21,160 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.71% to 2,795 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a 1.74% month - on - month decrease; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a 3.16% month - on - month decrease; imports were 246,800 tons, a 13.57% month - on - month increase; exports were 29,000 tons, a 13.07% month - on - month increase. The aluminum profile start - up rate increased by 0.37% to 53.70%; the aluminum cable start - up rate increased by 0.63% to 64.40%; the aluminum plate - strip start - up rate decreased by 1.47% to 67.00%; the aluminum foil start - up rate decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 59.00%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.16% to 626,000 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.81% to 469,000 tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% to 1,869 yuan/ton [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, a 7.48% month - on - month increase; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 283,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase; scrap aluminum production was 797,600 tons, an 8.16% month - on - month increase; unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports were 82,200 tons, a 15.77% month - on - month increase; exports were 23,500 tons, a 19.24% month - on - month decrease. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 4.60% to 56.57%. The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 54,700 tons. The daily inventory in Foshan increased by 0.23% to 33,323 tons; in Ningbo, it decreased by 1.27% to 13,179 tons; in Wuxi, it decreased by 7.09% to 1,873 tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,210 yuan/ton; the premium remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 5,139 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.34 [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread remained unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a 4.17% month - on - month decrease; imports were 22,700 tons, an 11.61% month - on - month decrease; exports were 2,500 tons, a 696.78% month - on - month increase. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased to 57.48%; the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased to 53.13%; the zinc oxide start - up rate decreased to 56.36%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 163,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1.46% to 37,000 tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.57% to 283,500 yuan/ton; the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 16.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% to 143 dollars/ton [10]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss worsened by 4.00% to - 16,052.47 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.92 [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 16.33% to - 570 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100.00% to - 200 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 80.00% to - 90 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 400.00% to 350 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a 31.71% month - on - month decrease; refined tin imports were 1,269 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,748 tons, a 6.59% month - on - month increase; Indonesian refined tin exports were 4,800 tons, a 50.00% month - on - month increase. The SMM refined tin average start - up rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60%; the SMM solder enterprise start - up rate increased by 2.19% to 74.80%. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 0.59% to 271,500 yuan/ton; the Yunnan 40% tin concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton [10]. Inventory Change - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons; social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons; SHEF daily warrants increased by 1.53% to 5,652 tons; LME daily inventory decreased by 0.91% to 2,725 tons [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.08% to 124,300 yuan/ton; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.92% to 2,450 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,250 yuan/ton; the 1 imported nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 194 dollars/ton. The futures import profit and loss improved by 38.59% to - 759 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.98. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.21% to 929 yuan/nickel point [12]. Production Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrowon nickel decreased by

Leslie, yeah, the uh Federal Federal Dallas Federal Reserve's uh business activity index rising to minus5 from minus 8.7%. So, still challenged, but not as challenged as it was in the prior month. The outlook for business activity remains positive at 7, but it did drop down from 8.4%.These surveys do a decent job of following the outlook for uh the general numbers for the uh national economy. Each survey is a little different. Uh production was unchanged at 5.2%.New orders index remains negative at minus 1. ...

Group 1 - The company's stock price in the secondary market is influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic conditions and industry cycle fluctuations, leading to a certain level of uncertainty [2] - The company's technology and capacity layout can support its performance obligations [2] - The company has signed a "Lithium Iron Phosphate Cooperation Framework Agreement," with specific details disclosed in its announcement [2]