Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring macroeconomic conditions and exchange rate trends, implementing measures to manage foreign exchange risks, and continuously optimizing its foreign exchange risk management strategies to maintain operational stability and profitability [1] Group 1 - The company is focused on macroeconomic and exchange rate trends [1] - The company is enhancing its monitoring of exchange rate fluctuations and foreign exchange risk management [1] - The company aims to sustain operational stability and profitability through optimized foreign exchange risk management strategies [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield approached 1.90%, attracting more allocation buyers. The stock market cooled due to regulatory measures on margin trading, and the central bank announced a structural interest rate cut, leading to a generally strong bond market with declining long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields also declined, with a larger decline than long - term yields, steepening the yield curve [2]. - This week (the week of January 19), the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the Q4 2025 economic growth rate continued to decline, factors such as stable employment, rising prices, policy optimizations, and expected export growth in Q1 2026 suggest a rebound in GDP growth. With no clear incremental drivers, the bond market will continue to oscillate. The stock market's "spring rally" expectation may divert funds from the bond market, and the tax - payment month in January will put pressure on the capital market, but the central bank is expected to maintain liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.90% [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market rebounded last week, with significantly declining long - term bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.27% for the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3.58bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped 4.63bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - **Primary Market**: 44 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 14 from the previous week. The issuance volume was 4516 billion yuan, a decrease of 3116 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1925 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 5417 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 3.53 for Treasury bonds, 3.92 for policy - bank bonds, and 19.54 for local government bonds [16][17]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - **December Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, exports in US dollars increased 6.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from November. The full - year export growth was 5.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Imports in December increased 5.7% year - on - year, accelerating by 3.8 percentage points from November, and the full - year import growth was 0.0%, 1.0 percentage point lower than the previous year. The strong export growth was due to external demand, trade transfer, and growth in chip and car exports. The import growth was driven by export growth and increased oil import demand [19]. - **December Financial Data**: In December 2025, new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, 6462 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of December, M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year, decelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decrease in new loans was "strong in enterprises, weak in residents," and the decrease in social financing was mainly due to government bond financing [19]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - **Production**: High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot - metal output declined, while the asphalt plant operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased [22]. - **Demand**: The BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased [22]. - **Prices**: Pork prices continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased, including copper, oil, and rebar [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market capital injection was 11128 billion yuan last week [31]. - R007 and DR007 both declined. The issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated upward. The 3M national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise. The volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first decreased then increased, with an overall decline [32][35][36].

【博时市场点评1月19日】A股缩量震荡，两市走势分化 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数走势分化，两市成交较上周五缩量至2.7万亿，资金交易热度有所降温。截至上周 五，两融余额继站上2.7万亿后仍继续放量。美国近日发布了11月消费数据，总体有所回升，主要是因 为11月是传统消费旺季，感恩节、"黑五"与圣诞节都会刺激消费需求，并且关税政策与政府停摆扰动影 响减弱。往后看，25年四季度美国经济增速或在政府停摆的冲击下承压，低基数效应或有利于26年一季 度GDP增速的环比反弹。因此，美联储在降息问题上或将保持谨慎的立场。短期看，市场将聚焦1月29 日美联储议息会议，这将是鲍威尔最后一次主持，届时特朗普或提名新主席人选，受此影响市场波动率 或上升；中期维度，若4–5月通胀持续回落，则6月降息落地概率较高，全球风险资产或有望受到支撑。 消息面 1月19日，国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上 年增长5.0%。12月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.49%。社会消费品零售总额 45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）48518 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Friday night saw a sharp decline, erasing the previous week's gains. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors offer long - term demand support, while traditional electronics and white - goods sectors are weak [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom of copper is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Short - term price strength is due to global inventory imbalances and supply concerns. However, real - terminal demand is weak, and prices may return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - The nickel market is mainly affected by macro factors and Indonesian ore quota news. Although ore - end news provides some support, most of it has been digested. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The lower support comes from tight domestic zinc ore supply, and the upper pressure comes from expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with support around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows some resilience in the off - season. However, with high valuations, there is resistance to further price increases. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract running between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a high - level oscillation, with the ADC12 price in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, imported supply, and downstream pre - holiday stockpiling [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Attention should be paid to ore - end news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - In the polysilicon market, demand is expected to improve due to export - rush demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling period and monitor production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: November tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and December SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69%, and social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: December electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and November imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 18.75% [5]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: December refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and November exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.08% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: December lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: December lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: December alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum decreased [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: December recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the industry's operating rate decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: December 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon feedstock average price increased by 0.18% to 54850 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and imports decreased by 27.05% [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.10 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: December national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

宏观经济周报 2026 年第四周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数连续第七周扩张，扩张幅度较前期有所回升，年 初经济运行延续正向态势，景气水平在结构调整中保持稳定扩张。从分项结构 看，消费景气指数显著上行并处于较高水平，节前需求释放与服务消费活跃共 同推动消费端表现走强，成为当周景气改善的核心来源。投资景气指数稳定运 行在扩张区间内，虽未出现明显跳升，但企业投资活动节奏平稳，项目推进连 续性较强，反映投资端对经济运行的稳定支撑。出口景气指数略低于荣枯线， 外需不确定性对整体景气仍构成边际拖累。生产景气指数小幅回落，但仍接近 荣枯线水平，工业活动在年初阶段出现阶段性整理。综合来看，当周景气扩张 的质量主要体现在需求端改善，消费与投资形成合力，外需与生产的阶段性扰 动未改变整体向好格局。随着节后生产节奏恢复及政策预期逐步落地，经济运 行有望保持平稳向上的发展态势。 2025 年中国进出口 45.47 万亿元，增长 3.8%。其中，出口 26.99 万亿元，增长 6.1%；进口 18.48 万亿元，增长 0.5%。具体来看，一是规模稳中有进、韧性凸 显。在外部环境复杂严峻的背景下，2025 年中国外 ...

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in Q3, with an annual growth rate of 5.0%, matching the previous year[1][2] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was 1.6 percentage points, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 0.4 percentage points[8] Industrial Production - In December 2025, industrial output increased by 5.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from November, driven by strong export performance[11][12] - The cumulative industrial value added for 2025 grew by 5.9%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[13] Consumption - Retail sales in December 2025 grew by 0.9%, a decline from 1.3% in November, with an annual growth rate of 3.7%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year[15][17] - The tightening of consumption subsidy policies and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market have negatively impacted consumer confidence[17] Investment - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8%, a decline that accelerated from the previous year's drop of 2.6%[20][26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) fell by 2.2%, with a significant drop of 12.2% in December alone, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[21][26] Outlook for 2026 - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 4.8% in 2026, supported by more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and stabilizing investment[3][10] - The focus will be on accelerating the development of high-tech manufacturing and stabilizing real estate policies to support economic growth[4][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][90][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures ranged from 15,780 to 16,480 yuan/ton, showing a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline. As of the close on January 16, 2026, it closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, down 195 points or 1.22% for the week [14] Spot Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to last week. As of January 16, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 135 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton compared to last week [26] - As of January 16, the domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly compared to last week, while the foreign price increased slightly [30] Important Market Information - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. There were different responses from various parties, and Trump said he would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [31] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, and Iran said it was ready for all possibilities [31] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, and the four - week moving average reached a two - year low [32] - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, and gave different growth forecasts for the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [32] - Trump expressed his hope for the Fed to cut interest rates, and mentioned plans for people's livelihood burden reduction, government shutdown, and housing policy [32] - The US budget deficit in December 2025 was 145 billion US dollars, a record high for that month [32] - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [33] - The St. Louis Fed President said there was little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [33] - The US PPI and core PPI in November 2024 increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than expected [34] - China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Trump's tariff threat and the G7's decision to reduce rare earth imports from China [34] - In 2025, China's second - hand car market transaction volume exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, with new energy second - hand car transactions accounting for 7.9% [34] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, reaching a new high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of domestic new car sales. It is expected that in 2026, China's total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 15.2% [34] - The 2026 work meeting of the inter - ministerial joint conference on the development of energy - saving and new energy vehicle industries emphasized enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and promoting the large - scale application of new energy heavy trucks [35] - China's automobile export enterprise structure was significantly optimized in 2025, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future, but it also faces challenges [35] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For the whole year of 2025, production and sales reached a new high, and new energy vehicles became the dominant force in the market. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports doubling [36] - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [37] Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased slightly compared to the previous month, while that in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [41] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [44] - As of November 30, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [47] - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.44%, up 7.55% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.93%, up 4.91% from last week [56] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [60] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [63] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 102,701 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.31% [68] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [71] - As of November 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [76] - In December 2025, Japan's automobile sales were 335,459, Germany's passenger - car sales were 246,400, and Germany's commercial - vehicle sales were 28,706. In November 2025, South Korea's domestic automobile sales were 116,906, the US sedan sales were 201,624, the US light - truck sales were 1,071,766, and the US light - vehicle sales were 1,273,390 [79] Inventory - side Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,390 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week [86] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [86] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [86] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping, which supports rubber prices. Main producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are gradually entering the low - production period, but southern Thailand is still in the peak - production period in the short term. The impact of recent weather has weakened, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [87] - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered, and the operating rates of tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in 2025 increased year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales in December were better than expected. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken. China's tire exports increased in November 2025, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive [88] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with the inventory - accumulation speed slightly decreasing [88] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline last week. In the future, macro - economically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was significantly lower than expected last week, and the Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in January, leading to a cooling of macro - sentiment. Commodities showed differentiation, and the chemical - product index first rose and then fell. Domestically, macro - easing policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive. Fundamentally, the supply side still has some pressure, the terminal consumption performs well, and the inventory - accumulation speed of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased. Overall, the natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather and raw - material output in rubber - producing areas, inventory - accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal - demand changes [89][90] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will remain range - bound in the short term. - Operation strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [91][92]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic environment and the real estate market in China, particularly the second-hand housing market, which has shown significant changes recently [14][15][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - Economic data has remained stable, with policy stimulus expectations not materializing, leading to minimal fluctuations in major asset classes. However, there is notable price differentiation within asset categories driven by varying capital flows [11][12]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a significant decline in supply, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, where the number of listings has decreased sharply. This decline in supply is identified as a major driver of falling prices in the real estate market [14][15]. - The cumulative price drop in the second-hand housing market has reached nearly 40%, with the increase in listings being a key factor in this decline. Despite ongoing transactions, the imbalance between listings and sales has pressured prices downward [15][17]. - The current real estate adjustment has been extensive, with sales area down nearly 60% and new construction down 70%. The duration of this adjustment has exceeded 18 quarters, suggesting a potential stabilization point [17]. - Rental yields in 20 cities are approximately 2.3%, slightly above the operating loan rates, indicating a potential for market stabilization despite the ongoing price declines [17]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic cycle is expected to adjust through internal changes, even without significant policy interventions. The report suggests that the real estate cycle may be nearing a turning point [18]. - There is an anticipation of potential policy changes around mid-year, particularly in response to rising bad debt pressures in personal loans, which could catalyze a significant shift in the real estate sector [19]. - The bond market outlook indicates a continued easing of monetary policy, with expectations of slight interest rate cuts and a steepening yield curve due to supply-demand imbalances in long-term bonds [20]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes holding medium to short-term government bonds while maintaining a short position in long-term bonds. The net position is currently neutral [24]. - In the industrial commodities sector, a slight net short position is maintained until there is a substantial improvement in end-user demand and inventory reduction [25]. - For equities, a long-term bullish position is held in 40% of favored stocks, with over 80% of these stocks exhibiting pro-cyclical characteristics, high dividends, and low price-to-book ratios. Additionally, a 20% position in index longs is maintained, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook [27][28]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes that it is not a legal investment decision document and carries disclaimers regarding the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. It is intended solely for the use of qualified investors [8][30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 8.5% in December[3] - The cumulative heating supply from coal-fired power plants rose by 5.1% year-on-year[3] - The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide increased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 79.0%[3] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, averaging 1.997 million tons per day[4] Construction and Real Estate - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.6% as of January 13[5] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 38.6% year-on-year from January 1 to January 16[8] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing agency subscriptions in 80 cities was 20.8%[10] Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from January 1 to January 11 dropped by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%[10] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 2.7% to 18.1 yuan per kilogram as of January 16[16] - The production of household appliances showed a positive growth of 6% year-on-year, with air conditioner production up by 11%[11] Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose by 3.8% to 933 points as of January 16, indicating a broad price increase across various sectors[13] - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 133.0 points, reflecting a decline in upstream manufacturing activity[7]