Group 1 - The core focus of Beijing's 2026 key work is to vigorously promote consumption, with a specific emphasis on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity [1] - The government plans to formulate policies aimed at increasing urban and rural residents' income, addressing consumption bottlenecks to encourage residents to consume more [1] - The report outlines a roadmap for boosting consumption, focusing on both goods and services, and aims to optimize commercial layouts and improve the quality of traditional business districts [1] Group 2 - The integration of cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports events is seen as a significant opportunity to stimulate consumption, particularly through attracting non-local consumers [2] - The development of new consumption scenarios, such as leisure, fashion, and winter sports, is identified as a key strategy to activate consumer spending and expand the consumption supply chain [2] - The transition from high-speed economic growth to high-quality development highlights the critical role of consumption, necessitating a long-term strategy to cultivate new consumption habits and expand domestic demand [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the 2026 work plan in Beijing is to vigorously promote consumption, with an emphasis on enhancing residents' consumption capacity through income increase policies [1] - The government aims to address consumption bottlenecks, ensuring that residents can, dare, and are willing to consume, with income being the primary barrier [1] - The central economic work conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as the top task for 2026, explicitly requiring the formulation and implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans [1] Group 2 - The report outlines a roadmap for "greatly boosting consumption," focusing on both goods and services, aiming for both stock and incremental growth [1] - For goods consumption, the strategy includes optimizing commercial layouts, enhancing the quality of traditional business districts, and addressing service gaps in communities and specialty streets [1] - The shift from a goods-centric consumption model to a balanced focus on both goods and services is crucial, with an emphasis on improving service consumption in sectors like education, health, and elderly care [1] Group 3 - The integration of cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports events is seen as a significant opportunity to stimulate consumption, particularly through attracting non-local consumers [2] - The "first store economy," "first launch economy," and "night economy" are interconnected, creating a multiplier effect that expands consumption space [2] - The current economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development highlights the critical role of consumption, necessitating a long-term strategy to cultivate new consumption habits and expand domestic demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction from salt lakes in China indicate a shift in the industry from "cost advantage" to "technology leadership," potentially leading to a full-chain upgrade from resource development to high-value utilization [1] Group 1: Macro Environment - The overall macro environment is favorable for the non-ferrous metals sector [3][12] - Multiple supportive factors are emerging for the non-ferrous metals sector due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and domestic policy drivers [4][13] Group 2: Global Liquidity and Geopolitical Risks - Expectations for increased global liquidity are rising, with UBS predicting two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [5][14] - Heightened geopolitical risks at the start of 2026 are expected to increase market demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting gold prices and supporting demand for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earths [6][14] Group 3: Domestic Economic Stability - China's manufacturing PMI rose above the neutral line in December, indicating economic stabilization and a potential recovery in manufacturing sentiment [6][14] - Continued government investment and infrastructure improvements are anticipated, alongside constraints on corporate expansion due to "anti-involution" policies, which may sustain price increases in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][14] Group 4: National Strategy and Resource Security - In 2026, China will initiate a new round of mineral exploration strategies and crack down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources, which is expected to strengthen the long-term stability of the industry [6][15] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance for various non-ferrous metals is expected to remain tight, supporting upward price trends [8][18] - Factors such as global monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, supply-side constraints, and steady demand are likely to drive the non-ferrous metals sector in 2026 [10][19] Group 6: Specific Metal Insights - Gold: China's official gold reserves have increased for 14 consecutive months, indicating a trend towards further accumulation by the central bank [19] - Silver: Supply remains tight while industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, continues to grow [19] - Copper: Long-term capital expenditure on copper mines is insufficient, leading to a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage [19] - Aluminum: High copper prices are accelerating the "aluminum substitution for copper" trend, with potential shortages in aluminum supply expected [19] - Lithium: Demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with expectations for a supply-demand reversal in lithium carbonate prices [19] - Cobalt: Continued export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to maintain structural tightness in cobalt supply [19]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a decline in trading volume at high levels [14] - The market experienced a cooling down after a period of heightened emotions, with a rapid decrease in market liquidity and financing levels [19] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and showing month-on-month growth [4][16] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][16] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to domestic tax rebate policy reductions [4][16] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, supporting the evidence of strong external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][17] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds and insurance sector dynamics [19] - The spring market rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, leading to an increase in market risk appetite [19] - However, the rapid momentum of the market may accumulate risks, prompting regulatory measures to cool down the stock market [19] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [20] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [20] - There are concerns regarding the fundamentals of many defensive dividend sectors and cyclical sectors, which may require strong catalysts for further market development [20] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [21] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, which could support China's equity market if foreign capital continues to flow in [21] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major A-share listed insurance companies [21] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] - The focus remains on technology sectors, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to provide strong short-term performance [23] - There is a need to monitor the stabilization of AI applications and related sectors for potential investment opportunities [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].

Core Insights - Various regions are launching rich promotional activities around traditional customs, ice and snow, and food to stimulate holiday cultural and tourism consumption potential as the Spring Festival approaches [1] - The initiatives include issuing consumption vouchers, ticket discounts, and hotel coupons to enhance consumer engagement [1] Group 1: Economic and Social Considerations - The push for cultural and tourism consumption is driven by four main considerations: stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand, enhancing public welfare, promoting industry recovery, and fostering cultural branding [2] - The focus on cultural tourism consumption aligns with the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies, satisfying residents' needs while promoting industry integration and job creation [2] Group 2: Highlights of Recent Initiatives - Recent cultural tourism promotional activities feature three distinct highlights: significant and targeted discounts, content supply that meets diverse consumer needs, and innovative integration of various business models [3] - Regions like Guangdong and Sichuan are making substantial investments in consumption vouchers that cover various scenarios, while also collaborating with financial institutions for additional benefits [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Future Growth - To further tap into the potential of Spring Festival cultural tourism consumption, suggestions include optimizing staggered holiday policies, enhancing local IP development, and improving consumer experiences through innovative marketing and regional collaboration [3][4] - Emphasis is placed on upgrading product offerings, enriching consumption scenarios, and establishing long-term mechanisms to ensure sustained consumer engagement and satisfaction [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a rebound in trading activity, with transaction volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong internal confidence and capital inflow amidst domestic asset scarcity and expectations of RMB appreciation [1][29]. Market Structure and Trends - The market structure has shifted compared to late last year and early this year, with increased activity in the real estate chain, resource products, and price increase chains, reflecting the inflow of medium to low-risk preference capital [1][6][39]. - Recent signals of expanding domestic demand policies have emerged, with expectations of policy enhancements, particularly in real estate prices, infrastructure investment, and service consumption, which are key areas of focus for medium to low-risk preference capital [1][39]. - The expansion of cyclical stocks indicates rising market confidence in re-inflation, with performance spreading from non-ferrous metals to chemicals, building materials, and coal, suggesting strong confidence in the PPI recovery trend this year [1][11][42]. Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing significant gains of 4.34% and 4.04% respectively, indicating increased participation and liquidity support for small-cap stocks [5][35]. - The real estate chain and cyclical resource products have benefited from warming policy expectations and re-inflation, with recent policy announcements aimed at reversing funding dilemmas in the real estate sector [39][42]. - The communication sector has faced declines, raising concerns about the sustainability of previously favored stocks, as institutional holdings in this sector have not consistently yielded excess returns [19][44]. Investment Focus - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, computing, media, chemicals, and military industries, with themes such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, robotics, controllable nuclear fusion, intelligent driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals being highlighted [31][37]. - The price increase chain remains a significant investment focus, particularly in areas experiencing supply-demand mismatches, such as AI hardware and upstream raw materials like lithium carbonate and PTA [20][21][23].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies such as SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Caocao Travel [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies increasing their investments, particularly Alibaba's commitment to enhancing its Taobao flash purchase services to achieve market leadership. It suggests capitalizing on investment opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from two main investment themes: international expansion due to the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and a focus on improving operational efficiency amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a significant recovery in passenger volumes, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasting a record high of 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Overview - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76% in the week of January 19-23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing and logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The report emphasizes the long-term positive outlook for the aviation sector, driven by low supply growth and recovering demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap. It also notes the potential for ticket prices to recover and airline profitability to improve [12][11]. - Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with the Middle East route rates reaching $107,937 per day as of January 23, 2026 [13]. - The dry bulk freight rates have rebounded, with the BDI index closing at 1,762 points on January 23, 2026 [14]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for potential investment opportunities [15][16]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing growth driven by international e-commerce, with Jitu Express recommended as a key player [18]. - The report notes that the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - Major players such as YTO Express and Shentong Express are highlighted for their market share gains, while SF Express is noted for its strategic business adjustments [20].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 and 4100 points, achieving a cumulative increase of 8.90% during a 17-day rally from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026 [1][5] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has significantly increased, with a historical record of over 30 trillion in trading volume for four consecutive trading days from January 9 to January 14, 2026 [1][5] - Multiple factors are contributing to the strong market performance, including reinforced policy expectations, global capital inflows, and an appreciating RMB, which provide direct liquidity support [1][6] Group 2 - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing a solid recovery, with steady market demand expansion, active service consumption, and resilient foreign trade [6] - The macroeconomic policy outlook remains positive, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key task for 2026, following a weak demand-side performance in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, indicating potential for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first quarter of 2026 [2][7] Group 3 - The spring market rally is expected to continue, driven by improved risk appetite and favorable liquidity conditions, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [3][8] - The market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven surge to a performance-driven slow bull market, with potential short-term adjustments around moving averages [3][8] - Key economic indicators, such as the PMI returning to expansion territory and positive price index performance, suggest ongoing support for market growth, although challenges remain in stabilizing growth [3][8] Group 4 - Investment focus should be on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology sectors driving modern industrial systems, and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][9]