11月15日，2025全球期货交易者大会暨第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛、第十二届全球衍生品 实盘交易大赛颁奖大会将在西安举行。这场一年一度的行业盛会，已成为期货市场各方交流观点、碰撞 思想、展望未来的高端平台。 对即将站上领奖台的优秀选手而言，荣誉的背后是数百个日夜的潜心钻研。从短线投资到长期趋势跟 踪、从主观判断到量化交易，实盘大赛获奖选手的交易策略百花齐放，但他们对期货交易的理解却形成 了共识：市场永远是最好的老师，持续学习并控制风险是在市场中长久生存的"不二法门"。 本届实盘大赛重量组第五名高淼表示，实盘大赛是验证交易能力的大考，也是突破认知局限的重要机 会。"与不同策略高手同台竞技，有助于我跳出原有思维框架，看到多元策略的实战价值。参赛的最大 收获是学会敬畏市场——深刻体会到控制风险远比追求收益更重要。"他说。 在本届实盘大赛重量组第九名、风控专项奖第二名"快乐老玩童"看来，风控是期货交易的生命线。"我 始终坚持三点原则：一是动态仓位管理，根据账户净值与市场波动率严格控制仓位；二是坚决执行止 损，到达预设点位绝不因侥幸心理而动摇；三是及时落袋为安，将浮盈转化为安全垫。这些策略让我在 大赛中平稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant price corrections following a substantial increase, with short-term adjustments creating a cautious atmosphere despite long-term bullish sentiment [1][2][4]. Price Movements - On October 28, the London spot gold price fell below $3,900 per ounce, marking a decline of nearly $500 per ounce since October 20 [2]. - The Shanghai gold futures market mirrored this trend, with the main contract dropping to around 900 yuan per gram [2][4]. - After reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, gold prices saw a record single-day drop of 6.3% on October 21, the largest in 12 years [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - A rumor circulated about a trader making a profit of 1.4 billion yuan from a 30 million yuan investment in gold futures, which was later debunked [3]. - Despite the outflow of funds from the gold futures market, the trading volume for gold and silver remains significant, with gold accounting for 17.27% and silver 8.61% of the domestic futures market [5]. Fund Flows - On October 27, there was a capital outflow of 1.72 billion yuan from precious metals, followed by an additional 7.7 billion yuan on October 28, with gold and silver seeing reductions of 5.5 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The total capital in precious metals currently stands at 138.32 billion yuan [5]. Institutional Outlook - Citigroup has revised its short-term price targets for gold and silver downwards, with gold expected to reach $3,800 per ounce and silver $42 per ounce due to changing global market conditions [6]. - The adjustments are influenced by trade negotiations led by the U.S. and a decrease in market uncertainty, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices [6]. Long-term Trends - Despite short-term corrections, many institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks [7]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing central bank gold purchases are seen as supportive factors for gold prices [7]. - Historical data suggests that after a nine-week rise in gold prices, a typical correction could range from 20% to 40% over the following year, but the underlying bullish trend remains intact [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 27, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 129,533 lots (-15,670), and the open interest was 108,989 lots (-12,453). The LME nickel price fell 0.17%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron smelters' losses deepened. In October, domestic production increased, and Indonesian production increased. Nickel iron inventories decreased. In October, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary battery production increased. Stainless steel mills' production increased. The demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventories increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 27, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 158,384 lots (+20,953), and the open interest was 115,124 lots (-29,055). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: In October, stainless steel production increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 612,700 tons (-9,000) [1]. Industry News - Indonesia's nickel processing industry has shown significant expansion. By 2025, Indonesia's nickel production is expected to account for 67% of the global total, and this proportion is expected to rise to 75% from 2027 - 2028. There are 173 nickel processing projects in progress, including 134 using pyrometallurgical technology (RKEF) and 39 using hydrometallurgical technology (HPAL). 65 RKEF plants and 12 HPAL plants are in commercial operation [1].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 娱与不锈钢日评20251028:成本支撑走弱,不锈钢连高法空 数据采源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-24 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-20 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 122060.00 | 121860.00 | 120710.00 | 200.00 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 7 | 122400.00 | 122150.00 | 250.00 | 收盘价 | 120860.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 122560.00 | 122310.00 | 121100.00 | 250.00 | 2 | | | | | | | 122730.00 ...

每经AI快讯，10月28日，苹果期货主力合约短线拉升涨超2%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the weather getting colder, the rigid demand for propane increases, leading to a price recovery. The supply pressure of propylene has been alleviated to some extent, but it is expected to rise slightly at the end of October. The cost support for propylene has strengthened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell put options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rigid demand for propane for combustion increases with the cold weather, and its price recovers. In mid - October, Fushun Petrochemical restarted, while several other plants stopped production, alleviating supply pressure. However, some plants like Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Kenli Chemical are expected to restart at the end of October, and the supply pressure of propylene is expected to rise but with limited amplitude. The sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US have led to an oil price rebound, strengthening the cost support for propylene [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be short - term bullish; arbitrage should be on the sidelines; sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking - **Propylene Price Movement**: Affected by cost, propylene rebounded from a low level. As of Friday night, the propylene futures PL2601 closed at 6155 (+30/+0.49%). The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong spot market was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene price was down 20 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CFR China price was 745 - 755 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a four - day consecutive rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude hitting 66 US dollars and a cumulative increase of over 5%. Saudi Aramco's November CP for propane is expected to be lower than that in October, at 455 US dollars/ton. However, with the increasing rigid demand for propane due to cold weather, the downward space is expected to be limited [15]. - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday, the overall domestic propylene operating load was 77.52%, down 0.71% week - on - week. Some plants restarted or stopped production in October, and several plants are expected to restart in October and November, so the market supply pressure still exists [23]. - **Import and Export Situation**: Propylene imports mainly flow to the Yangtze River Delta, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable, and downstream factories replenished low - priced foreign goods. The import volume increased significantly from May to July. South Korea is the largest source of China's propylene imports, accounting for 67.67%. The impact of tariffs on propylene trade is almost negligible [26]. - **Downstream Product Situation**: Most propylene downstream product prices decreased this week, especially for products like propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid. The cost pressure on downstream products increased, and their acceptance of propylene prices gradually declined. Most downstream products of propylene have poor profits, remaining below the break - even line. Only octanol is currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability [47].

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析-纯苯】 【交易策略】 单边：短期制裁事件影响下油价偏强，纯苯&苯乙烯价格支撑较强，纯苯供需格局偏弱，思路上维持逢高做空。 套利：观望 期权：卖出虚值看涨期权 GALAXY FUTURES 2 纯苯：北京时间10月23日下午，欧盟对俄罗斯第19轮制裁落地，其中涉及3家中国涉油企业，供应预期损失驱动布油价格大涨，纯苯估值抬升。 上半周中石化挂牌价下调，纯苯现货市场价格重心下移，市场气氛整体偏弱，山东市场低价成交有所放量，山东和华东区域间套利窗口打开。 本周纯苯供需双降，纯苯主港库存环比上升，本月下旬到月底前后，正和年产能5万吨、华星5万吨纯苯长停装置计划重启开车，抚顺石化28万 吨、垦利石化7万吨、胜星石化7万吨、乌鲁木齐石化36万吨纯苯检修装置有重启计划，11月中下旬大连福佳35万吨、镇海炼化24万吨纯苯装置 检修重启，纯苯广西石化裂解乙烯新装置计划近日投产 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Song Wei, a prominent figure in China's futures market, who transitioned from a successful trading career to founding a beverage company, achieving significant sales growth in a relatively short period [1][3][11]. Group 1: Background and Early Career - Song Wei, born in 1968, graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University in 1991 and began his career at the Shanghai Material Trade Center [3]. - He became one of the first "Red Vests" in China's futures market, participating in the establishment of the Shanghai Metal Exchange in 1992, which marked the beginning of China's regulated futures trading [3][5]. - His initial wealth came from trading "subscription certificates" and later from high-risk futures trading, where he could earn tens of millions in a single day [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges in Futures Trading - Despite early success, Song Wei experienced anxiety due to the volatile nature of the futures market, which required constant market judgment and carried high risks [7][8]. - The number of original "Red Vests" dwindled from 109 to 20 within two years, highlighting the market's dangers and the high rate of failure among traders [7][8]. - A mentor advised him to avoid long-term futures trading, suggesting a shift to stocks or real industries for more stable returns [8][9]. Group 3: Transition to Real Industry - In 1997, after several ups and downs in the futures market, Song Wei decided to leave and ventured into the restaurant business, opening a successful establishment in Shanghai [10]. - He later founded a health product brand and identified a market opportunity in honey pomelo tea, leading to the creation of the "Youxiang Valley" brand [10][11]. - The brand faced competition but eventually thrived, with sales reaching 2 billion yuan in three years, driven by the launch of "Song Pomelo Juice" [11][12]. Group 4: Business Philosophy and Future Plans - Song Wei emphasizes the importance of long-term investment and stability in business, contrasting it with the quick but risky profits of futures trading [13][14]. - He aims for "Song Pomelo Juice" to achieve 10 billion yuan in sales by 2024 and plans for an IPO by the end of 2026 [12][14]. - His experience reflects a shift towards sustainable business practices, focusing on agricultural development and long-term growth rather than speculative trading [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, and with the easing of Sino - US relations, US corn rebounded but remained in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production. China has set tariffs on US corn and sorghum, while foreign corn import profits are high. Domestic corn prices are under pressure, with short - term decline potential. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [4][7][8]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch, and attempt to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch. For options, a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations is suggested [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On October 27, 2025, most corn and starch futures contracts closed down. For example, C2601 closed at 2112, down 21 (-0.99%); CS2601 closed at 2425, down 16 (-0.66%). Trading volume and open interest also showed different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in some regions declined. For instance, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao dropped 32 yuan, and the basis varied by region. Starch spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive. Price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the northern port flat - hatch price declined, and the northeast and north China corn prices dropped. The wheat - corn price spread widened, and the domestic breeding demand was stable. The short - term corn price has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the corn price in Shandong was weak. Starch inventory decreased this week. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Wait and see for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and price spreads of corn and starch futures contracts, which visually reflect the price trends and relationships of corn and starch [14][16][22].

Key Points - The article provides an analysis of the futures market, highlighting key long and short products, volume changes, trading opportunities, and core logic behind market movements [2][3][4][5][6][10]. Group 1: Key Long and Short Products - Long products include IC (CSI 500 futures) and IM (CSI 1000 futures), which are categorized as "Good Curve Long" with strong trends [6]. - Short products include RB (rebar) and FG (glass), which are identified as "Good Curve Short" with clear bearish signals [6][10]. - Consolidation products such as T (10-year treasury), TL (30-year treasury), HC (hot-rolled coil), and RU (rubber) indicate uncertain market directions, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [4]. Group 2: Volume Changes - High volume signals are observed in products like IC and IM, indicating potential inflows of capital due to their strong bullish trends [6]. - Conversely, products like TS (2-year treasury) and TF (5-year treasury) show low volatility and negative returns, suggesting potential outflows of capital [6]. Group 3: Trading Opportunities - Trend trading opportunities are identified in stock index futures (IC, IM) and certain commodity futures (CU, AL, NI) which are in a "Long" market state [6]. - Caution is advised for commodities like AU (gold) and AG (silver) which show conflicting signals of being "Maybe Curve Short" while in a "Long" market state, indicating potential for pullbacks [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply and demand changes, particularly for products like J (coke) and JM (coking coal) which are in a "Long" market state but have bearish curve types [6]. Group 4: Core Logic - The strong bullish logic for stock index futures (IC, IM) is attributed to the relative strength of small-cap stocks and high rolling returns, leading to sustained capital inflows [8]. - Commodity futures are influenced by various factors including supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and monetary policy, which can lead to significant market movements [10]. - The article highlights the need for risk management, especially in high-volatility products like EC (shipping index) and I (iron ore), where strict controls are necessary [10].