镍作为空配品种延续下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美联储鹰派降息如期落地，中央经济工作会议也已结束，更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策等表述，并未给市场带来强刺激，市场反应平平。 产业方面：11月国内产量锐减1万吨，供需基本匹配，LME库存也因此未出现增长。12月产量略有回升， 需求端进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也环比走弱。库存预计小幅增长。供 需双弱格局缺乏向上驱动。商务部、海关总署公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，对不锈钢和镍利 空。 期货层面：沪镍11.8万附近阻力较强，资金减仓后上周四返回，价格再度下行，若市场整体风险偏好下降， 可能增仓下破前低。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 单边：测试前低。 交易逻辑及策略 | 单边：低位震荡。 | | --- | 套利：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUT ...

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月15日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，氧化铝、焦煤、工业硅、烧碱涨超3%，多 晶硅、乙二醇、聚氯乙烯（PVC）涨近2%。跌幅方面，国际铜、沪银、沪铜跌超2%，碳酸锂、沪铝、 铝合金跌超1%，棕榈油、菜油、铁矿石、豆一、豆油跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 25.47 | 荣价 | 1 ×20088 | 共产 | を | 成交量 | 薄味 | 持位置 | 日常仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 司化铝2601 M | 2555 | 220 | 2555 | 2556 | 3.74% | 214 | 45 | 402242 | 92 | 215017 | -26550 | | 2 | 焦煤2605 M | 1064.0 | 1945 | 1063.5 | 1064.0 | 3.45% | 63 | 924 | 912794 | 35.5 | ...

国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：年末宏观扰动增多，22000关口再度回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 ◆ 中期来看，我们依然持有对铝价趋势向上的观点，今年4季度迄今市场对于铝金属颇具想象力的定价逻辑，在2026年仍将得以延续。 2026年度平衡上看，我们目前预估： ◆ 基准情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.1%，净进口240万吨估算，预计全年约短缺12.4万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近103.7万吨，相较今年年底的累库幅度最高预计达到47万吨，略高于去年同期39.1万吨，累库压力应比较可控。 ◆ 乐观情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.6%，净进口250万吨估算，预计全年约短缺25.8万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近97.7万吨，相较今年 ...

2025年12月 需求减弱，甲醇弱势下行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止12月12日，鄂市煤矿开工率76%，榆林地区煤矿开工率46%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯 地区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求下滑，坑口价连续下跌。供应端，煤制 甲醇利润在380-460元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，暂未招标， 非伊开工提升，外盘开工低位小幅提升，欧美市场小幅下跌，内外价差走缩，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月已装44万吨，非伊货源 部分延迟至1月，1月进口预期上调至140左右，需求端，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万吨 /年MTO装置负荷不满，其配套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年MTO装置运行 稳定；天津渤化60万吨/年（MTO）装置负荷7成；宁波富德60万吨/年DMTO装 ...

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2067（-10/+0.48%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1940 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1920 元/吨，山西地区报价 2040 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2100 元/吨，广州报价 2070 元/吨。 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017786 联系方式： zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 10 日 14：00 港口库存数据发布，周期内（20251204-20251210） 中国甲醇样本到港量为 24.78 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 260 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 天气支撑现货 盘面维持震荡整理 弱现实强预期 鸡蛋合约近弱远强 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区收购均价为2114元/吨， 较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区收购均价2275元/吨，较前一日涨5元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日南北港口价格小幅上涨。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2250- 2270元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2420元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 3、12月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减1350手，共计57355手。 4、国家统计局今日发布2025年全年粮食实现增产丰收。2025年，全国粮食产量14297.5亿斤， 短期来看，上有季节性供给压力、下有备货情绪支撑，现货预计或处于区间运行；中 ...

以下是第一财经对一些重要公告的汇总，供投资者参考。 【品大事】 隆盛科技：拟3.5亿元投建具身智能机器人创新中心项目 3连板中源家居：股票价格短期波动较大 存在非理性炒作风险 中源家居公告，公司股票价格短期波动较大，短期涨幅显著高于同期上证指数，存在非理性炒作风险，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的大幅下跌风险。公司目前 生产经营活动正常，主营业务未发生重大变化，外部经营环境存在较大不确定性。公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，不存在影响公司股票交易价格异 常波动的重大事项。 恒瑞医药：HRS9531注射液临床试验获批准 针对MASH适应症全球暂无同类药物获批上市 恒瑞医药公告称，子公司福建盛迪医药有限公司收到国家药监局核准签发的HRS9531注射液的《药物临床试验批准通知书》，将于近期开展临床试验。 HRS9531注射液是具有全球自主知识产权的新型靶向抑胃肽受体（GIPR）和胰高血糖素样肽-1受体（GLP-1R）的双激动剂，可在体内调节糖脂代谢、抑制 食欲和增强胰岛素敏感性，从而起到改善血糖和减轻体重的效果。对于代谢功能障碍相关脂肪性肝炎（MASH）患者，HRS9531注射液有望通过改善肝脏脂 质堆积、减轻炎症反应及 ...

嘉化能源公告称，第十届董事会第十五次会议审议多项议案。为满足2026年生产经营等需求，公司拟向 金融机构申请不超150亿元综合授信额度，开展不超10亿美元远期外汇交易业务，提供不超50亿元融资 担保、35亿元借款额度。还拟用不超5亿元闲置资金现金管理，预计关联交易不超42.99亿元，授权10亿 元期货交易、500万元对外捐赠额度。此外，拟吸收合并全资子公司，2026年项目技改预计投资1.5亿 元，定于12月29日召开2025年第三次临时股东会。部分议案需提交股东会审议。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On December 11, the main nickel futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. After the price correction, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 11, the main stainless - steel futures contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. Although the cost side is stabilizing, the fundamentals are loose. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 115,400 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 120,019 lots, a decrease of 13,204 lots. The open interest of the active contract was 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures decreased by 296 tons to 33,939 tons. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 243,702 tons to 244,494 tons, and the total LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 253,092 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,825 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore to decline in the second half of December. The supply of nickel ore is sluggish, and the price is flat. In December, domestic nickel - iron production decreased, and Indonesian production also declined. On the demand side, ternary material production decreased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 12,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,415 lots, a decrease of 10,516 lots. The open interest was 64,258 lots, a decrease of 7,223 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai stainless - steel futures inventory decreased by 120 tons to 61,378 tons. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 23,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December, stainless - steel production decreased, especially the 300 - series. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [3] BR Main Contract Data - **Price**: On November 11, it was 10240; on December 5, 10410; on December 9, 10450; on December 10, 10605; on December 11, 10710, with a daily change of 105 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Open Interest**: On November 11, it was 82041; on December 5, 30197; on December 9, 76409; on December 10, 80546; on December 11, 86990, with a daily change of 6444 and a weekly change of 56793 [4] - **Trading Volume**: On November 11, it was 89151; on December 5, 65443; on December 9, 111045; on December 10, 126992; on December 11, 155798, with a daily change of 28806 and a weekly change of 90355 [4] - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: On November 11, it was 12610; on December 5, 13320; on December 9, 17320; on December 10, 19020; on December 11, 19320, with a daily change of 300 and a weekly change of 6000 [4] - **Virtual-to-Physical Ratio**: On November 11, it was 32.53; on December 5, 11.34; on December 9, 22.06; on December 10, 21.17; on December 11, 22.51, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 11 [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 160; on December 5, 40; on December 9, 50; on December 10, -22; on December 11, -60, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -100 [4] - **Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 560; on December 5, 540; on December 9, 550; on December 10, 445; on December 11, 490, with a daily change of 45 and a weekly change of -50 [4] BR Basis/Spread/Inter-Variety Data - **02 - 03 Spread**: On November 11, it was -52; on December 5, -30; on December 9, -20; on December 10, -15; on December 11, -20, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 10 [4] - **03 - 04 Spread**: On November 11, it was -50; on December 5, -50; on December 9, -45; on December 10, -12; on December 11, -15, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 35 [4] - **RU - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 4855; on December 5, 4655; on December 9, 4535; on December 10, 4610; on December 11, 4475, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -180 [4] - **NR - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 1885; on December 5, 1635; on December 9, 1630; on December 10, 1665; on December 11, 1560, with a daily change of -105 and a weekly change of -75 [4] BR Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10400; on December 5, 10450; on December 9, 10500; on December 10, 10550; on December 11, 10650, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - **Chuanhua Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10250; on December 5, 10400; on December 9, 10400; on December 10, 10500; on December 11, 10580, with a daily change of 80 and a weekly change of 180 [4] - **Qilu Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 10200; on December 5, 10600; on December 9, 10600; on December 10, 10600; on December 11, 10600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR Northeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1400; on December 5, 1300; on December 9, 1325; on December 10, 1325; on December 11, 1325, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - **CFR Southeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1685; on December 5, 1575; on December 9, 1600; on December 10, 1600; on December 11, 1600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] BR Profit Data - **Spot Processing Profit**: On November 11, it was 1086; on December 5, 906; on December 9, 905; on December 10, 802; on December 11, 775, with a daily change of -28 and a weekly change of -132 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was -1366; on December 5, -442; on December 9, -579; on December 10, -529; on December 11, -428, with a daily change of 102 and a weekly change of 14 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was 2297; on December 5, 1401; on December 9, 1522; on December 10, 1479; on December 11, 1390, with a daily change of -89 and a weekly change of -11 [4] BD Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6975; on December 5, 7200; on December 9, 7250; on December 10, 7400; on December 11, 7525, with a daily change of 125 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - **Jiangsu Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6850; on December 5, 7050; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7250; on December 11, 7350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Yangzi Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 6900; on December 5, 7100; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7200; on December 11, 7200, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - **CFR China**: On November 11, it was 790; on December 5, 850; on December 9, 860; on December 10, 860; on December 11, 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4] BD Profit Data - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: On November 11, it was -88; on December 5, -64; on December 9, -62; on December 10, -61 [4] - **Carbon - four Extraction Profit**: On November 11, it was -134; on December 5, 172; on December 9, 276; on December 10, 304 [4] - **BD Overall Profit**: On November 11, it was -1824; on December 5, -1764; on December 9, -1614; on December 10, -1634; on December 11, -1534, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 230 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was 346; on December 5, 108; on December 9, 186; on December 10, 236; on December 11, 337, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 229 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was -982; on December 5, -1192; on December 9, -975; on December 10, -1019; on December 11, -1036, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of 156 [4] Other Production Profit Data - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 1175; on December 5, 1538; on December 9, 1450; on December 10, 1450; on December 11, 1450, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -88 [4] - **ABS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 56; on December 5, -697 [4] - **SBS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was -90; on December 5, -332; on December 9, -420; on December 10, -420; on December 11, -420, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -82 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]