黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需平淡，价格震荡 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-02-02 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需平淡，价格震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.1万吨，与22日持平。行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；浮法玻璃行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15 | | | | 日持平。本周1条产线复产点火，但尚未出玻璃，暂无产线放水，日产量维持平稳。下周暂无产线存在点火或者冷修预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，但随着时间的推移，需求端受季节性因素影响，下游逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对 原片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅去库，企业总库存5256.4万重箱，环比-65.2万重 ...

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke sector in the black industry is "oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The market shows strong expectations for demand improvement. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival. The coking coal主力合约 is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200, and it is considered to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, the coking coal主力 contract Jm2605 closed at 1,155.5 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline compared to the daytime session opening. The coke主力 contract J2605 closed at 1,721.5 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline compared to the daytime session opening. On Friday night, the coking coal主力 contract closed at 1,194.0 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke主力 contract closed at 1,746.0 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - In 2025, the national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease, and fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1% year - on - year increase [1] - In January 2026, the national steel industry PMI was 47.4, up 2.2 percentage points from 45.2 in December 2025. It remained in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, but the recovery amplitude was significantly larger [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised the trading margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures. For non - high - risk accounts, the gold futures margin will be increased from 6% to 8% of the current contract value, and for high - risk accounts, it will be raised from 6.6% to 8.8%. For silver, the non - high - risk account margin will be increased from 11% to 15%, and the high - risk account margin will be raised from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a 0.32 - percentage - point increase compared to last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 0.83 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a 1.30 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 9.53 - percentage - point decrease compared to last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a 0.12 - million - ton decrease compared to last week and a 2.53 - million - ton increase compared to last year [1] Market Logic - Last week, macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and its upstream industrial chains. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream demand is expected to decline, and the auction transaction situation is average [1] - Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will cut production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] Trading Strategy - The coking coal主力 contract has increased long positions and is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200. It should be viewed as oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 24 元至 1790 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1770 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 14423 手至 21.67 万手，空头持仓减少 25639 手至 24.19 万手 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - SC night session declined by 2.67%. US President Trump indicated that Iran intended to contact the US and hinted at possible resumption of diplomatic communication. The situation in Venezuela also alleviated as it was promoting comprehensive oil legal reform [3]. - US crude oil daily production for the week ending January 16 was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 255,000 barrels from the same period last year [3]. - Methanol night session declined by 0.13%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants was 80.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of January 29, coastal methanol inventory was 1.43 million tons, a 0.33% decrease from January 22, and a 42.43% increase year - on - year. The estimated available marketable methanol in coastal areas was around 720,000 tons [3]. - The estimated import ship arrivals in China from January 30 to February 15 were between 593,000 and 600,000 tons. As of January 29, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.56%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.75 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC, the previous day's closing prices were 464.7 for the near - month contract and 472.5 for the next - month contract, with increases of 6.5 and 12.2 respectively, and increases of 1.42% and 2.65%. For WTI, the near - month and next - month closing prices were 65.51 and 65.03, with increases of 2.01 and 1.89, and increases of 3.17% and 2.99%. For Brent, the near - month and next - month closing prices were 68.74 and 67.69, with increases of 1.04 and 0.93, and increases of 1.54% and 1.39%. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract were also provided, along with the changes in open interests [2]. - **Spread Information**: The spreads between different contracts were presented, including SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, etc., and their current and previous values [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: The prices of OPEC's basket of crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were given, showing an upward trend compared to the previous values [2]. - **Domestic Market**: The prices of domestic crude oil (Daqing, Shengli), Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of jet kerosene were provided, with most showing an increase [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供应方面，前 期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业 链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库 存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货146150，基差6150，偏多 3、库存：LME库存286284，-186，上交所仓单46876，+22，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...

上证指数跌0.93%，深成指跌0.54%，创业板指涨0.65%。科创综指跌0.8%。 2026.02.02 本文字数：717，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 |一财阿驴 09:26黄金、有色金属板块大面积跌停，湖南黄金、晓程科技、西部黄金、四川黄金等多股跌停。消息 面上，受获利回吐和短期期货交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格1月30日继续大幅下 跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅金 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | -20.00% | 54.00 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | -10.02% | 18.59 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | -10.01% | 23.10 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | -10.00% | 59.56 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | -10.00% | 33.21 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | -10.00% | 38.88 | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | -10.00% | 33.30 | | 601069 | 世部黄金 | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Hunan Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, and Western Gold [1][2] - International gold and silver prices saw substantial drops on January 30, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades due to profit-taking and short-term futures traders closing long positions [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Xiaocheng Technology's stock fell by 20.00% to 54.00, while Hunan Gold and Western Gold both dropped by 10.00% to 33.30 and 40.25 respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.93% to 4079.71, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54% to 14128.87, contrasting with a 0.65% increase in the ChiNext Index [3][4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The market saw a wave of limit-downs in the gold and base metal sectors, with oil, gas, chemicals, agriculture, coal, and steel industries also experiencing notable declines [4] - Conversely, sectors such as photovoltaic and ultra-high voltage themes showed resilience and strength amid the broader market downturn [4] Group 4: Additional Market Movements - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.29%, influenced by significant drops in major telecom operators [8][9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 1505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [7]

2026.02. 02 本文字数：717，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:26 黄金、有色金属板块大面积跌停，湖南黄金、晓程科技、西部黄金、四川黄金等多股跌停。消 息面上，受获利回吐和短期期货交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格1月30日继续大幅 下跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅� | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | -20.00% | 54.00 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | -10.02% | 18.59 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | -10.01% | 23.10 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | -10.00% | 59.56 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | -10.00% | 33.21 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | -10.00% | 38.88 | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | -10.00% | 33.30 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | -10.00% | 40.25 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -9. ...

（李思进 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0021407，仅供参考） PTA： 供需面供稳需减。PTA 行业负荷环比持平至 76.6%，处于历年同期偏低水平，鉴于一季度检修计划较多，预计供应将趋于收紧。需求端，终端新订单整体偏 弱，江浙地区终端工厂开工率持续下滑。聚酯行业负荷环比减少 2.0pct 至 84.2%，预计行业开工将加速下滑。综合来看，当前 TA-聚酯环节基本面尚有支 撑，PTA 现货基差走弱的持续性将受到聚酯减产的考验，同时终端需求走弱也将形成压制，一季度产业链面临累库压力。短期内，成本端支撑减弱，TA 5 月期价预计震荡偏弱运行，中线投资者等待回调至支撑区域 5100-5200 做多。需警惕霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁可能引发的油价冲高风险。 （李思进 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0021407，仅供参考） EG： 供需面供增需减。国内方面，乙二醇行业负荷环比增加 1.2pct 至 74.3%，其中，合成气制负荷环比增加 1.6pct至 81.0%，处于历年同期高位，当前价格尚不 足以引发大规模减产。虽然北美及中东装置检修可能削减一季度进口，但由于近期乙二醇价格重心上移，吸引了部分中国台湾等地货源，加之国内供应充 ...