Core Viewpoint - Hongta Securities is the first listed brokerage to pre-disclose its operating data for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 651 million to 696 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Hongta Securities anticipates a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 202 million to 247 million yuan compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company expects a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between 634 million and 679 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [5]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to the company's focus on differentiated and specialized development, enhancing asset allocation effectiveness, and optimizing its asset-liability structure [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The brokerage sector has seen increased activity since June, with Hongta Securities' stock rising by 6.33% on July 10, while the Wind brokerage index increased by 1.21% [3]. - The overall brokerage sector is expected to maintain growth momentum in the first half of 2025, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased trading volumes [7][10]. - The average daily trading volume in the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 61% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yuan, with financing scale increasing by 26.8% [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The brokerage sector is characterized as a "bull market barometer," indicating a potential increase in market risk appetite [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current technical patterns of brokerage ETFs and individual stocks resemble those seen before the 2014 bull market [13]. - The sector's valuation is significantly below historical averages, with leading brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities showing low price-to-book ratios while experiencing high profit growth [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity of the CSI 300 ETF has shown significant growth, with a recent increase in scale by 9.52 billion yuan over the past two weeks and a daily average transaction volume of 1.194 billion yuan over the past year [2] - As of July 9, 2025, the net value of the CSI 300 ETF has increased by 19.17% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 25.64% and an average monthly return of 4.63% during rising months [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, collectively accounting for 22.76% of the index [2] Group 2 - International institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 5.2% growth for the first half of this year [4] - Minsheng Securities anticipates continued liquidity easing in July due to various factors, including lower fiscal pressure and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which may provide space for domestic easing [5] - Investors without stock accounts can consider low-positioning in A-share core assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the psychological barrier of 3500 points, driven by internal factors despite a challenging external environment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3500 points for the first time in eight months, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64% [2]. - Over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced gains, with sectors such as childcare, robotics, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge [1][2]. Sector Highlights - Robotics stocks surged, with Zhongdali gaining a limit-up and Jingpin Special Equipment rising over 19%. A major acquisition announcement involving Zhongyuan Robotics and Zhongwei New Materials contributed to this [2]. - The photovoltaic industry also saw a resurgence, with stocks like Tuori New Energy and Yijing Photovoltaic hitting their daily limits. The price of silicon materials has notably increased, indicating a positive response to market conditions [2]. - AI application stocks experienced a rally, with companies like Huanrui Century and Zhongwen Online seeing significant gains, driven by advancements in AI tools like ChatGPT [2]. Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, marking a turnaround after four months of decline, primarily due to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [3]. - Major international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China's GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 5.2% growth rate for the first half of the year [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to ample liquidity, with the central bank's actions stabilizing market sentiment [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment resembles that of late 2014, with a potential catalyst needed to ignite further growth, possibly from unexpected policy changes or technological advancements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are showing significant performance, driven by liquidity and market conditions, with the 中证2000增强 ETF leading in inflows and returns this year [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 中证2000增强 ETF (159552) has increased by 1.71% as of 14:12 on July 8, with a 10-day gain of 5.89% and a 20-day gain of 7.47%, totaling a year-to-date increase of 32.54% [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 10 million, marking seven consecutive days of inflows, totaling over 61 million, with a year-to-date growth in scale of 746.75% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Research from 华安证券 indicates that from 2010 to 2024, the median elasticity coefficient for small-cap stocks is 1.73, compared to 1.52 for mid-cap and 0.92 for large-cap stocks, suggesting that small-cap stocks outperform during market uptrends [1] - Recent months have seen significant gains in sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have favored small-cap stocks [1] - The central bank's ongoing liquidity easing signals and decreasing market funding costs have made small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, contributing to their rise [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of ample liquidity, small-cap stocks tend to achieve more pronounced excess returns [1] - Industry predictions suggest that the monetary policy package announced on May 7 is not the peak of easing, with continued policies expected in Q3 and Q4, indicating ongoing benefits for small-cap stocks [1]

Core Insights - The small-cap stocks continue to lead the market, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) experiencing a 722% increase in scale and approximately 32% returns year-to-date, making it a dual champion among broad-based ETFs [1][3] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has shown over 73% returns in the past year, with its scale and net value reaching historical highs throughout the year, demonstrating consistent and stable enhancement capabilities [3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by less than 1%, while the CSI 2000 has increased by 15%, highlighting a significant performance gap [5] - Historical data indicates that during market uptrends, small-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks having a median elasticity coefficient of 1.73 compared to 0.92 for large-cap stocks from 2010 to 2024 [5] Market Drivers - The strong performance of small-cap stocks this year is attributed to favorable market conditions, including significant rallies in February and April, and the recent performance of sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Continuous liquidity easing signals from the central bank have lowered market funding costs, making small-cap stocks more sensitive to liquidity changes, which has been a crucial factor in their rise [5] Future Outlook - The future performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF will depend on two key indicators: the progress of mergers and acquisitions among small-cap companies and the earnings growth and recovery of small-cap indices in the upcoming semi-annual reports [6] - If these indicators are favorable, it could accelerate the small-cap stock market, potentially providing significant upside for the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]

流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the basic metals industry, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by macroeconomic factors in the U.S. and liquidity expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Events**: July 2025 is critical with key events such as the vote on the "Great America Act" on July 4, the expiration of EU tariff exemptions on July 9, and a potential Fed interest rate cut decision around July 30. These events will significantly impact commodity markets and liquidity expectations for the latter half of the year [2][4]. - **Fed's Rate Cut Signals**: Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated that positive changes in tariffs could trigger conditions for a rate cut, which is expected to support demand for basic metals and enhance anti-inflation capabilities [1][4]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The price difference between COMEX and LME copper has widened to $1,400/ton with a premium rate of 14.2%. This is driven by expectations of a potential copper tariff investigation and LME's restrictions on long positions, leading to a more optimistic COMEX market [5][6]. - **Domestic Copper Market**: The domestic copper market is experiencing weak forward prices, shifting from a Contango to a Backwardation structure, which may lead to cautious investor sentiment towards equity investments [6]. - **Aluminum Market Conditions**: The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels across social, exchange, and bonded zone stocks. Despite a slight accumulation during the off-season, demand remains strong, supporting stable aluminum prices [3][8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested investments include companies with relatively cheap valuations and good mid-term growth potential, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Jincheng Mining, as well as Chinese non-ferrous mining companies listed in Hong Kong [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Support for Metal Prices**: An increase in macroeconomic expectations, low spot inventories, and the upcoming earnings season are expected to support rising prices for basic metals [7]. - **Aluminum Industry Performance**: The aluminum sector in both Hong Kong and A-share markets has shown strong performance, with expectations for annual earnings to exceed 20 billion, driven by a combination of beta, alpha, and dividend investment trends [10]. - **Valuation of Aluminum Companies**: Current valuations for aluminum companies are around 7 times earnings, indicating reasonable valuation levels with high safety margins. Companies like Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu International are highlighted as having positive allocation value [11]. - **Trading Strategies for Basic Metals**: Short-term trading may focus on liquidity easing expectations, while fundamental trading should consider early positioning before the peak season to validate liquidity expectations and assess demand performance post-peak [12].