通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 基差修复凸显市场分歧，碳酸锂低位震荡格局延续 一、日度市场总结 市场数据变动分析 5月14日，碳酸锂主力期货合约收于65200元/吨，较前一日上涨3.13%，盘中波动 区间为63020-65200元/吨，呈现震荡上扬态势。基差大幅走弱，从前一日的2980 元/吨回落至1000元/吨，降幅达66.44%，期货价格涨幅显著高于现货。持仓量收 缩5.87%至27.7万手，部分资金离场；成交量则大幅扩张73.95%至37.8万手，市 场博弈加剧。现货市场方面，电池级碳酸锂均价持平于66200元/吨，锂辉石和锂 云母精矿价格亦维持稳定，但碳酸锂产能利用率环比下降1.3个百分点至61%， 上游生产仍受利润压制。 产业链分析与未来走势判断 供给端，锂辉石（740元/吨）和锂云母（800元/吨）价格连续多日持稳，但澳矿 CIF报价已跌至70 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 碳酸锂：基本面仍偏弱，上方空间或有限 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 5 月 13 日，雅化集团公告称，公司下属全资子公司雅化国际与 Core 公司全资子公司锂业发展签署 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 65,200 | 1,980 | 1,040 | -2,980 | -5,020 | -13,120 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 377,525 | 160,492 | 173,711 | 269,348 | 327,690 | 371,433 | | | ...

商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：需求改善有限叠加矿价暂未止跌，偏弱震 荡格局或延续 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 63,220 | -820 | -2,040 | -5,080 | -7,320 | -16,380 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 217,033 | -96,901 | 113,054 | 112,649 | 177,644 | 213,365 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 294,226 | 9,895 | 37,935 | 81,770 | 201,928 | 273,328 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 64,520 | -680 | ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/5/13 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 63,220.00 | -820.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,740.00 | -3735.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 294,226.00 | +9895.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,200.00 | -240.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 36,194.00 | -157.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 64,600.00 | ...

研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 64,040.00 | +1020.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） -23,005.00 -924.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） 284,312.00 | -5991.0 ...

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷， 偏弱震荡 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：单边回落，在 6.29 万元/吨附近出现空头减仓，基差走强 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 63020 元/吨，周环比下跌 3240 元/吨，2509 合约收于 64300 元/吨，周环比下跌 3360 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 3000 元/吨为 65250 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 240 元/吨至 2230 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+360 元 /吨，周环比走强 60 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1280 元/吨，环比+120 元/吨。 供需基本面：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷 供应：本周锂矿价格延续下跌趋势，并且下跌速度进一步加大，国内 SMM 矿价报 725 美元/吨， fastmarkets 最新成交价低至 680 美元/吨，矿端价格回落带动锂价回落。锂矿价格虽持续下跌，但澳洲 矿山企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate remains unresolved, and the pattern of weak oscillation may continue. The expansion inertia after the Spring Festival and the current stall in demand dominate the market. The spot market has default news, and there are also some differences within the short - selling funds in the futures market. It may enter a bottom - seeking stage in the short term [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract on May 8 was 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% from the previous day, but it showed an oscillating downward trend in the past five days, dropping from 66,260 yuan/ton to 64,280 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis weakened significantly, reaching 2,120 yuan/ton on May 8, a decrease of 620 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The position of the main contract decreased for two consecutive days, dropping to 267,396 lots (-3.43%) on May 8, while the trading volume increased significantly by 51.75% to 309,284 lots [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 66,400 yuan/ton (-0.75%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate also declined. The price center of the industrial chain spot continued to move down [2]. - The prices of downstream products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of electrolyte and anode materials also weakened [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - In April, the total output of lithium carbonate decreased by 7% month - on - month but remained at a high level. The output of spodumene decreased by 16%, that of lithium mica increased by 4% month - on - month, and the output of salt lakes increased by 10% with the warming of the temperature [3]. - The price of lithium salts forced the mining end to make concessions, and severely hit the smelting demand such as toll - processing. The mining end is currently in a stage of price decline and inventory accumulation [3]. - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; the wholesale volume of manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1% [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On May 8, 2025, compared with May 7, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.19%, the basis decreased by 22.63%, the main contract position decreased by 3.43%, and the main contract trading volume increased by 51.75%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.75%, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively [6]. - From May 2 to April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.48% [6]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On May 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 65,346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1415 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 1400 yuan/ton. Due to high inventory and weak downstream procurement, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall [7]. - From April 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3%. The wholesale volume of manufacturers was 846,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.9% [8]. 3.5 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate inventory, lithium carbonate operating rate, and cell selling prices [9][14][17][19][21][22][24][26][28].

富宝资讯：今日碳酸锂基差报价暂稳，现货市场交投氛围清淡 金十期货5月9日讯，富宝资讯数据显示：富宝碳酸锂基差指数为510元/吨（平）；富宝电碳现货基差 LC07-矿石料均价650元/吨（平），富宝电碳现货基差LC07-卤水料均价150元/吨（平），富宝电碳现货 基差LC07-回收料均价200元/吨（平）；富宝工碳现货基差LC07-综合料均价-800元/吨（平）；今日持 货商多维持上一交易日基差报价，锂价连续下挫导致下游观望心态渐浓，目前仅按需采购，成交较为一 般。 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | | 64,280.00 | +120.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -21,487.00 | -1732.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | | 267,396.00 | -9504.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -740.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spot price of lithium carbonate has decreased compared to the previous trading day, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 63,950 yuan per ton, reflecting a decline of 1,400 yuan per ton [1] Price Summary - Battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced at 63,950 yuan per ton, down 1,400 yuan per ton - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate (comprehensive) is reported at 62,700 yuan per ton, also down 1,400 yuan per ton - The average price of long-term contracts for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 65,500 yuan per ton, down 550 yuan per ton - The lithium hydroxide index is at 60,500 yuan per ton, down 500 yuan per ton [1] Lithium Ore and Other Indices - Lithium spodumene (Africa SC 5%) is priced at 405 USD per ton, down 10 USD per ton - Lithium spodumene (China CIF 6%) is reported at 740 USD per ton, down 10 USD per ton - The lithium spodumene index (5% ≤ Li2O < 6%) is at 5,485 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan per ton - The lithium mica index (2% ≤ Li2O < 4%) is at 1,936 yuan per ton, down 37 yuan per ton - Phosphate lithium aluminum stone (7% ≤ Li2O < 8%) is priced at 7,640 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan per ton - The rich lithium aluminum electrolyte index is at 1,836 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton - The discount coefficient for rich brine (lithium sulfate) remains unchanged at 71.5% [1]