Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of global trade tensions has significantly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices fell for two consecutive days, with a notable drop of approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, and approaching the psychological level of $3350 [1][2] - Optimistic market sentiment regarding trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, has contributed to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, further pressuring gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US durable goods orders data is expected to provide critical insights into the future trajectory of gold prices, with strong data likely to reinforce economic recovery expectations and exert downward pressure on gold [4] - Geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchasing trends, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are anticipated to have a long-term impact on gold prices [4] - Key dates to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30, which may influence inflation outlooks, and the finalization of US-EU trade agreement details before the August 1 tariff deadline [4] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark, despite recent price corrections [5] - The recent dip to $3350 was viewed as a mid-term adjustment, with expectations for a rebound and new upward opportunities following this correction [5] - Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels around $3395/$3400, with a possibility of breaking through to $3410 if market momentum remains strong [5]

Global Asset Price Performance - The Nikkei 225 index led global stock markets with a 4.1% increase, driven by the trade agreement between the US and Japan [1] - Major US stock indices also saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively [1] - Oil prices declined due to concerns over the outlook for crude oil demand amid stalled trade negotiations between the US and Europe [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating a pause in the current rate-cutting cycle [3] - The Federal Reserve is in a quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting, with market expectations for rate cuts remaining low [3] - The Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested that the US-Japan trade agreement reduces economic uncertainty, indicating potential for rate hikes later this year [3] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims in the US slightly decreased to 217,000, indicating stability in the labor market [11] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%, suggesting a decline in business investment [11] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, marking the first drop below the neutral line since December, primarily due to decreases in input procurement and inventory spending [11] - A trade framework was established between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% and allowing Japan to invest $55 billion in US core industries [11] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's service PMI rose to 51.2, and manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8, indicating signs of recovery [25] - Tensions escalated between Thailand and Cambodia, leading to military conflict, which may impact regional stability [25] Upcoming Key Focus - Key economic data releases include US June retail sales and wholesale inventories, Eurozone Q2 GDP data, and Japan's June industrial output [31]

Global Asset Prices - Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.1% this week, leading global stock markets[3] - S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively[7] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell from 221,000 to 217,000, indicating a stable labor market[4] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%[4] - U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 to 49.5, marking the first decline below the neutral line since December[4] Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for July is close to 0, with expectations of two cuts this year[4] - European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating no urgency for further cuts[4] - Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested potential for rate hikes due to reduced economic uncertainty from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement[4] Other Economic Developments - Eurozone services PMI rose to 51.2%, while manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8%, the highest in 36 months[4] - Ongoing military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia following border tensions[4] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming events include U.S.-China trade talks, Q2 GDP data, and U.S. non-farm payrolls for July[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, with the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 49.5 falling short of expectations but the Services PMI at 55.2 being strong, and the weekly initial jobless claims at 217,000 remaining low. The precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of an unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist [2]. - Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened, and it is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The easing signs of the global trade situation and the strong performance of U.S. economic data are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices. These factors reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2][3] Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value in the U.S. is 49.5, which is lower than expected, while the Services PMI is 55.2, showing strong performance. The weekly initial jobless claims are 217,000, remaining at a low level. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, far lower than the economists' expected 226,000. The July U.S. Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the Services PMI climbed significantly to 55.2, indicating an accelerated expansion of economic activities [2][3] Trade Situation - The U.S. and multiple countries are expected to reach tariff agreements one after another. The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The U.S. and the EU's trade negotiations have also shown positive progress, and the market expects the two sides to reach an agreement with a 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the 30% tariff level previously threatened by Trump [2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened and is in an upward trend. The change in photovoltaic expectations may affect the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations. The easing of the global trade situation and strong U.S. economic data have put pressure on gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump continues to promote "good" economic data, emphasizing positive indicators in the U.S. economy [1] Economic Indicators - The article highlights various economic metrics that are being touted as signs of a robust economy, although specific data points are not provided [1] Political Context - The promotion of economic data is framed within the political narrative of the Trump administration, suggesting a strategy to bolster public perception ahead of upcoming elections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

标普全球在当日上午发布的初步调查数据显示，美国7月份制造业和服务业综合景气指数为54.6，高于 市场共识预期的52.3和6月份修订后的52.9。其中，美国7月份制造业景气指数为49.5，低于市场预期的 52.7和6月份向上修订后的52.9。美国7月份服务业景气指数为55.2，高于市场预期的52.7和前一个月向下 修订后的52.9。 美国商务部当日上午发布的数据显示，美国6月份新房销量年率为62.7万套，低于市场预期的65万套， 但高于前一个月的62.3万套。 新华财经纽约7月24日电（记者刘亚南）科技板块继续保持强势加之当日公布的经济数据构成利好，纽 约股市三大股指24日开盘时涨跌不一，盘中维持分化走势，尾盘走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不 一，但标普500指数和纳指收盘时均再次创下历史新高。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌316.38点，收于44693.91点，跌幅为0.70%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨4.44点，收于6363.35点，涨幅为0.07%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨37.94点，收 于21057.96点，涨幅为0.18%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八跌三涨。非必需 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, the four major A-share stock indices were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 2277.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.19% to close at 1007.53 points. Market turnover was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.1%), basic chemicals (+1.36%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains; media (-0.98%), electronics (-0.49%), and light manufacturing (-0.41%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,600/247/2,567 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.5 billion, -12.1 billion, 3.6 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -25.9 billion, -6.7 billion, +13.1 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 62.07, 45.61, 4.55, and -3.68 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.28%, -8.9%, -1.33%, and 1.59% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 29%, 18%, 45%, and 66% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Spot bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.01, and an IRR of 1.57%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.36% [4]. - Funding situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 187.5 billion yuan and withdrew 84.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has seen a recovery in prosperity as industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by tariffs, geopolitical situations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, with a general outlook remaining bullish after adjustments [1][6][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3,363.64 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the week, reaching a high of $3,376.99 and a low of $3,309.90, ultimately closing at $3,350.90, reflecting a weekly decline of $6.86 or 0.2% [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The market sentiment was affected by comments from U.S. officials regarding tariff negotiations and interest rate policies, which reduced risk concerns and pressured gold prices [3][4][7]. - The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations provided support for gold prices, indicating potential for upward movement despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high, which could favor gold prices in the long term [7]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently anticipated, potentially leading to significant increases in gold prices in the coming years [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential risk of a downturn to $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3,341 and $3,334, with resistance at $3,365 and $3,385 [12].