以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者李笑寅 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | 时间 | 地区 | 内容 | 预期 | 同信 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6月2日 | 目一 | | | | | 事件 | 国内 | 中国内地金融市场因端午节假期休市 | | | | | | 港交所推出宁德时代每周期权合约 | | | | | 海外 | 8:00 美联储理事沃勒在2025年韩国央行国际会议上就经 | | | | | | 济前景发表讲话 | | | | 数据 | 泡シ | 22:00 美国5月ISM制造业指数 | 49.2 | 48.7 | | 6月3日 | 周二 | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 9:45 中国5月财新制造业PMI | | 50.4 | | | 海外 | 22:00 美国4月JOLTS职位空缺(万人) | 710 | 719.2 | | | 国内 | 小米集团2025投资者日 00:45 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参 与一场问答活动 | | | | 事件 | | 1:00 美联储主席鲍威尔在一场活动上致开幕词 | | | | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell met with President Trump to discuss economic growth, employment, and inflation, emphasizing that policy decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [2] - The revised first-quarter GDP for the U.S. shows a contraction of 0.2%, slightly improved from the initial estimate of a 0.3% decline, indicating economic shrinkage at the beginning of the year [2] - Consumer spending growth has been significantly downgraded, marking the weakest growth in nearly two years, while corporate profits plummeted by 2.9%, the largest drop since 2020 [2] Group 2: Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended a ruling that blocked Trump's global tariffs, with the court considering whether to extend this suspension [2] - The U.S. International Trade Court previously ruled that the government's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal, leading to the current legal uncertainty [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has responded to recent developments in U.S.-China trade talks, indicating ongoing communication regarding trade concerns, particularly around semiconductor export controls [2] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Jinrui Futures predicts that precious metal prices will experience weak fluctuations influenced by policy signals and macroeconomic data [3] - Recent trading saw an increase in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.61% to $3342.60 per ounce and silver futures up by 0.84% to $33.44 per ounce [3] - Despite the rise in precious metal prices, there is a lack of further upward momentum due to positive signals in tariff negotiations and strong U.S. economic data, suggesting a recovery in market risk appetite [3]

新华财经纽约5月29日电（记者刘亚南） 美国国际贸易法院关于关税措施的裁决提振市场信心，加之英 伟达股价上涨，纽约股市三大股指29日整体高开，盘中震荡走低，但尾盘仍小幅收涨。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨117.03点，收于42215.73点，涨幅为0.28%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨23.62点，收于5912.17点，涨幅为0.40%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨74.93点，收 于19175.87点，涨幅为0.39%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块十涨一跌。房地产板块和医疗板块分别以0.95%和0.74%涨幅领涨， 通信服务板块下跌0.35%。 位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院28日晚些时候裁定现政府一揽子关税政策违法，下令撤销其依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》推动的关税措施。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关税执行的裁决不能被迅速暂停，政府将最早于30日 向最高法院寻求紧急帮助。 市场研究机构蓝筹每日趋势报告创始人拉里·坦塔雷利（Larry Tentarelli）表示，整体上，市场不喜欢不 确定性，后者让企业难以做出预测。预计关税消息周期将是一个较长的过程，可能带来更多的短期 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

本周市场将受到多重因素的影响，尤其是美联储的会议纪要和通胀报告将成为关键的关注点。周初，市场将由特朗普最新关税威胁以及欧洲央行行长拉加德 的讲话引导，而接下来的数据发布将进一步影响市场情绪和投资决策。本文将详细分析本周的重要经济数据和事件，帮助投资者把握市场脉动。 欧美时段首先关注德国5月季调后失业率，4月份经季节调整的失业率连续第二个月保持在6.3%不变，符合预期但当局指出，春季劳工市场复苏似乎相对较 弱，所以需要更多的数据来确认信号，看就业市场依然被经济前景信心弱化所拖累。晚间关注美国5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数，预计维持负值。原油市场 关注第39届欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国部长级会议举行，上周有报道称其讨论7月增产的选项，在当前经济前景不明朗的情况下，增产会再次施压油价。 周一：央行动态引导市场 美国和英国因假期休市，但市场情绪将主要受到特朗普再次发出关税威胁的影响，留意避险情绪预计集中。美国总统特朗普上周五威胁要再次升级贸易战， 建议从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%的关税，并警告苹果，他可能会对美国消费者购买的所有iPhone征收25%的关税。看晚间欧央行行长拉加德讲话关注是 否就特朗普最新关税警告做出回应 ...

n1 经济事件 · 08:00:00 · 02:40:00 · 09:20:00 · 02:00:00 · 04:00:00 美联储主席鲍威 FOMC永久票 美联储公布5月 2027年FOMC票 今日有3570亿元 尔在普林斯顿大 委、纽约联储主 货币政策会议纪 7天期逆回购到 委、旧金山联储 学毕业典礼发表 席威廉姆斯参加 主席戴利参加奥 期。 品。 毕业致辞。 日本央行金融研 · 09:20:00 克兰扶轮社与经 · 10:00:00 国务院政策例行 ·09:20:00 究所会议的小组 今日有1545亿元 济相关的炉边谈 7天期逆回购到 吹风会:深化国 今日有1350亿元 讨论。 话。 7天期逆回购到 家级经济技术开 · 09:20:00 期。 · 08:25:00 发区改革创新有 今日有1570亿元 2026年FOMC票 期。 · 20:30:00 2027年FOMC票 ·2025-05-26 关举措。 7天期逆回购到 委、达拉斯联储 美股休市一日。 · 16:00:00 期。 委、里奇蒙联储 主席洛根为一场 2026年FOMC票 · 16:00:00 主席巴尔金参加 活动致开幕词, 委、明尼阿波利 2 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2320，2400】操 ...

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Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The marginal weakening of April economic data shows resilience, and there is no significant risk of a decline in the short - term fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The focus of market gaming should be on the capital market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax - payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the LPR quotation tomorrow [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The April economic activity data released in the morning was weaker than expected, boosting the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively. The decline of medium - and long - term bonds was about 2bp. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6610%, down 1.8bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank made a net injection in the open market, and the capital market tightened marginally. There were 430 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 920 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank capital interest rates fluctuated. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 9.4bp to 1.54%, the 7 - day interest rate fell 3.6bp to around 1.60%, and the medium - and long - term funds increased slightly. The 1 - year large - state - owned bank certificate of deposit interest rate rose 3 - 4bp to around 1.7% compared with last weekend [10]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's industrial added value above designated size in April increased by 6.1% year - on - year; from January to April, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 147024 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%; in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year; from January to April, real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Housing Price Data**: In April, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier were flat or slightly down month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow [13]. - **International News**: The UK is expected to reach the most significant reset agreement with the EU since Brexit; the US Treasury Secretary warned that some US trading partners may face a significant increase in tariff rates [13]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 19, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps [34]