贸易冲突

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沪铜沪铝沪镍:多空交织 延续震荡格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 04:27
Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, with early gains followed by a decline, and continued to oscillate in the night session. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to persistent market concerns and a weakening dollar index, which briefly fell below 99 [1] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate limited impact from the Peru copper mine incident, with a tight supply situation persisting and lower smelting and processing fees. Domestic consumption is supported by seasonal demand, and inventory trends are declining, although medium-term demand expectations remain cautious due to recession fears affecting prices [1] - The price difference between COMEX and LME remains high, and while short-term tariff impacts are easing, medium-term uncertainties persist. With holidays approaching, market sentiment is cautious, and copper prices are expected to continue in a wide range of fluctuations [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices showed slight strength in the morning but retreated in the night session, resulting in narrow fluctuations. Market concerns over trade conflicts have diminished in the short term, but U.S.-China negotiations have not progressed smoothly, and tariff impacts continue [1] - The domestic policy environment has not provided unexpected increases, leading to market caution. The spot price of alumina remains stable, with expectations of production cuts, but overcapacity remains unchanged, and optimistic supply from ore persists, creating clear upward pressure [1] - Supply constraints for aluminum remain, with slow production growth. Short-term demand is supported by seasonal factors, and inventory is declining, but medium-term macroeconomic concerns persist. Overall, the overcapacity situation in alumina remains unchanged, and with costs potentially decreasing, upward price pressure continues, leading to cautious sentiment as holidays approach [1] Group 3: Nickel Market - The nickel market is experiencing range-bound fluctuations with high volatility risks. Supply-side factors include an extended rainy season in Indonesia, which supports nickel ore prices, while high nickel pig iron costs limit downward price potential. Intermediate product supply is ample, and refined nickel production capacity is expanding, resulting in high inventory levels [1] - On the demand side, the stainless steel peak season is coming to an end, putting pressure on terminal demand. Although there is a rebound in new energy demand, the weak market share of ternary products limits incremental demand for nickel [1] - Overall, the market faces a surplus situation, and cost pressures are rising due to Indonesian policy disturbances. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with supply-side factors being the primary short-term influence. The Indonesian PNBP policy will gradually manifest during the May Day period, leading to high volatility risks in nickel prices, and new orders are advised to be on hold for the time being [1]
关税战恶果显现 美国港口和空运需求骤降
智通财经网· 2025-04-28 13:43
智通财经APP获悉,据报道,不断升级的中美贸易冲突正开始对美国经济产生更广泛的影响,集装箱港 口运营商和航空货运公司报告称,来自中国的货物大幅减少。 物流公司注意到,自美国对中国进口商品征收145%的关税以来,运往美国的集装箱运输量急剧下降。 洛杉矶港是中国商品在美国的主要入境点,该港预测,从5月4日开始的一周,预计到港集装箱数量将比 去年同期下降33%。航空货运公司也发现订单量大幅下降。 集装箱跟踪平台Vizion的数据显示,截至4月中旬,从中国到美国的标准20英尺集装箱预订量同比下降 了45%。 航运巨头赫伯罗特报告称,其从中国出发的出境订单约有30%被取消。 订单放缓显然影响了港口活动。Sea-Intelligence 的分析师报告称,"空船"(即取消从中国出发的预定船 只)数量激增。据报道,从5月5日开始的四周内,亚洲-北美航线的集装箱预订量减少了约40万个,与 关税宣布前的计划相比下降了25%。 国际商会(ICC)主席John Denton表示,这种中断反映出企业正在推迟决策,等待华盛顿和北京是否会 就降低关税进行谈判的明确消息。在美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布对等关税之后,国际商会对60多个国家 的成 ...
兴证全球谢治宇:今年四月份以来,我们更有信心了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-28 10:25
Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Deputy General Manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, Xie Zhiyu, emphasizes a positive outlook on the market despite facing numerous challenges and risks ahead, indicating a matured approach to investment strategies [2][8]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Economic Challenges - The current economic environment is marked by significant volatility, with the company adopting a more mature mindset in response to external pressures, moving from constant worry to a more measured approach [2][3]. - The trade conflict today is notably different from that of 2018, with potential tariffs reaching as high as 125%, indicating a shift towards the highest tariff levels since 1900 [3][4]. - The U.S. economy is experiencing structural changes, including a declining manufacturing sector and increasing wealth disparity, which are contributing to a high level of national debt [6][7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The company believes that despite the challenges, there are potential long-term benefits, including a controlled increase in government debt and a stabilization in the real estate market, which could positively impact the economy [8][10]. - There is a growing emphasis on technology and innovation, with increased R&D investment as a percentage of GDP, which is expected to drive future growth [10][13]. - The equity market is evolving to provide more sustainable investment products, particularly in technology sectors, which are seen as having higher risk and return potential [11][12]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the A-share and Hong Kong markets will become more internationalized, attracting larger capital inflows due to their appealing valuation levels [12][14]. - There is a strong belief in the importance of dividend-paying stocks, which are expected to provide stable returns and contribute to market revaluation [14]. - The company remains optimistic about sectors with ongoing breakthroughs, such as semiconductors, which are expected to play a significant role in global competition [14].
新加坡金管局:长期贸易战可能进一步阻碍新加坡经济增长
news flash· 2025-04-28 10:18
新加坡央行警告称,持续的全球贸易战可能对经济增长和通胀构成更大风险,首轮关税已预计影响到 60%的该国对美出口。新加坡金管局周一在宏观经济评估报告中指出,经济增长前景已转为"更加谨 慎",美国关税上调可能压缩出口商利润率、削减生产并抑制国内收入。该机构强调,贸易政策走向仍 存在"显著不确定性"。"贸易冲突若长期持续,可能对经济增长构成进一步下行风险,进而影响通 胀,"报告称。"相反,贸易紧张局势可能随时间推移缓和,这可能提振信心和出口活动。"(彭博) ...
钢矿周度报告2025-04-28:减产预期释放,黑色震荡偏强-20250428
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 10:09
Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-04-28 01:52
首先,上周贸易冲突没有明显升级,超跌反弹进程得以延续。近期,国际贸易冲突没有继续升级, 各国与美国的谈判陆续开始。美国政界对于中美贸易问题的态度也较之前有所缓和。受此影响国际股市 展开超跌反弹,A 股市场亦保持了稳健向上的态势,其中部分贸易冲突受损的行业在上周展开了更明显 的估值修复。往后展望,市场或更关注贸易谈判的进展和国内宏观政策的具体落实和推进。此外,本周 是五一小长假之前的最后三个交易日,也是年报和季报的最后披露期,宜根据最新信息分析各行业的景 气趋势并制定应对策略。 上周,两市小幅反弹,成交大幅萎缩。沪指上半周延续了反弹势头,下半周在 30 天均线处遇阻小 幅回落,周五收盘在五天均线附近,需密切关注其得失。深圳市场表现略强,但反弹未能越过 20 天均 线。量能方面,上周两市日均量能在 11000 亿左右,比上周略有增加,但总体处于年内较低水平。上周 市场热点主要集中在汽车、化工等制造业。投资风格方面,中小盘风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看,沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑,正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬,在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力,开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 ...
中信证券:在贸易冲突背景下,预计从4月PMI开始,数据层面将逐步反映压力,适时降准降息时点临近,收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。
news flash· 2025-04-28 00:26
中信证券:在贸易冲突背景下,预计从4月PMI开始,数据层面将逐步反映压力,适时降准降息时点临 近,收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...
Here Is My Top Blue Chip Stock to Buy Now
The Motley Fool· 2025-04-27 22:05
Core Viewpoint - 3M is showing underlying progress in its operations, which enhances the stock's upside potential, especially if the trade conflict is resolved [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - 3M's first-quarter organic sales growth was 1.5%, below the initial guidance of approximately 2.1%, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88 exceeded the guidance of about $1.71 [3] - Management indicated that the company is trending towards the lower end of its full-year organic sales growth guidance of 2% to 3% but sees potential upside in margin and earnings [4][6] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The company launched 169 new product introductions (NPIs) in 2024, a 32% increase from 2023, with 62 NPIs launched in the first quarter alone, and plans to launch 215 NPIs through 2025 and 1,000 over the next three years [9] - On-time in-full (OTIF) delivery improved to 89% from 85.5% in the same quarter of 2024, with a target of 90% by year-end [11] - Operating equipment efficiency (OEE) rose to 58% from 54% in the previous quarter, indicating ongoing potential for value addition for shareholders [12] Group 3: Market Challenges and Outlook - 3M faces headwinds in the auto industry and consumer electronics sectors, with lowered auto build estimates for 2025 posing challenges [13] - Despite these challenges, there is potential for sales upside if the economic outlook improves due to de-escalation of trade conflicts [15]
美国电商集体涨价,“关税不能这么高下去,太多人撑不过去”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by President Trump, particularly on American consumers and e-commerce platforms like Amazon, leading to significant price hikes on various products [1][2][4]. Price Increases on E-commerce Platforms - Since April 9, nearly 1,000 products on Amazon have seen an average price increase of 29% due to rising import costs [1]. - SmartScout's analysis indicates that over 800 products are at their highest recorded prices, with a significant portion of sellers being from China [2]. - Amazon's own brand products, such as batteries and USB cables, have also experienced price increases, ranging from a few cents to several dollars [4][5]. Impact on Small and Medium-sized Sellers - Many small sellers, heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers, are struggling to cope with the increased costs and are forced to make significant adjustments [6][7]. - Zulay Kitchen, a small home goods brand, has had to lay off 19% of its workforce and cut advertising spending by 85% due to the challenges posed by tariffs [6]. - The article highlights that small businesses may face severe competition and potential closure if tariffs remain high, as they lack the flexibility to absorb additional costs [7][8]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Companies are attempting to shift their manufacturing to countries like India and Mexico, but this transition may take one to two years, which is unsustainable for many small businesses [6][7]. - The article notes that a significant portion of Amazon sellers (over 70%) source their products from China, making them vulnerable to price increases [9]. Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There are indications of consumers beginning to stockpile products in anticipation of further price increases [9][10]. - Major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have expressed concerns to the Trump administration about impending price hikes and supply chain disruptions [8][10]. - The article suggests that the long-term effects of the trade conflict will depend on whether U.S. importers can find alternative sources for their products [7][11]. Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, experts assert that China's manufacturing capabilities and supply chain infrastructure remain unmatched and essential for global production [11].
短线多空交织,市场继续震荡
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 07:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]