Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as the US tariff policy ruling, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][5][8][13][16][38][56] - For most commodities, short - term uncertainties exist, and the market is expected to be volatile. Some commodities may have a downward trend due to supply - demand imbalances, while others may be in a state of shock with limited upward or downward space [4][7][10][15][20][39] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, A - shares opened higher, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The White House may appeal or invoke new legal provisions [3][4] - Funds: On May 29, A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan [4] - Operation suggestion: The index is expected to continue to oscillate neutrally after short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan. The money market was generally stable [6] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority, but the implementation of the ruling is uncertain [6] - Operation suggestion: The bond market may oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and the money market [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: Gold and silver prices rose due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the re - boosting of risk - aversion sentiment. International gold closed at $3317.87 per ounce, up 0.94%, and silver closed at $33.32 per ounce, up 1.09% [8][10] - News: The US federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, and the Trump administration appealed. The US economy showed signs of slowdown, and the Fed maintained its stance on monetary policy independence [8][9] - Operation suggestion: Gold can use the virtual - value option double - selling strategy, and silver is recommended to sell relatively virtual - value call options [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of May 29, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range [13] - Index: The SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 1.44% week - on - week, while the US West Line Index increased by 18.90% [13] - Fundamentals: As of May 29, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.6% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed certain economic trends [13] - Logic: The futures price rose due to the possible congestion of European ports caused by the US tariff policy, which may lead to tight shipping capacity in August [14] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1800 - 2400 points [15] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the market procurement sentiment was general [16] - Macro: The short - term macro environment has little change. The key is the US copper import tariff policy and the US economic fundamentals. The current macro factors do not strongly drive copper prices up [17] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in May [18] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing decreased, and the terminal demand may be under pressure in Q3 [19] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [19] - Logic: Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [20] Zinc - Spot: On May 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the market transaction was average [20] - Supply: A zinc mine may stop production in June, but the overall processing fee remains high. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly in May [21] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, but some enterprises were cautious about terminal export orders [22] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [22] - Logic: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to short at high levels and pay attention to zinc ore production and downstream demand changes [23] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [23] Tin - Spot: On May 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was relatively good [23] - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in April showed different trends [24] - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate improved in March, but the overall order situation was average. The inventory showed different changes [25] - Logic: Considering supply recovery and weak demand expectations, it is recommended to hold short positions [26][27] - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [27] Nickel - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [27] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level, with an expected production of 35350 tons in May [27] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel mills was affected by production adjustments [28] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory and bonded area inventory decreased [28] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 [29][30] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [30] - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron was stable [30][32] - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production in May is expected to decrease slightly, with a decrease in the 300 - series production [30] - Inventory: Social inventory and futures inventory decreased [31] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13200 [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [32] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [33] - Supply: The production in April decreased slightly, but the production in May is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure remains [34] - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [34] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [35] - Logic: The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56000 - 60000 yuan [36][37] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 yuan [37] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly [38] - Supply: The iron element output decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly [38] - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, but the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the direct export of steel remained high [39] - Inventory: The steel inventory continued to decrease, while the cold - rolled steel inventory continued to increase [39] - Cost and profit: The profit was stable, with blast furnaces profitable and electric furnaces losing money [39] - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, but further decline requires iron ore inventory accumulation [39] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [40] - Futures: The main iron ore contract rose 1.22% to 707 yuan/ton [40] - Basis: The basis of PB powder for the 09 contract was 72.5 yuan/ton [40] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [40] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume was relatively low [41] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory was basically stable [41] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate between 700 - 745 yuan/ton [41] Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures continued to decline, and the second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was implemented on May 28 [42] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 7 yuan/ton [42] - Supply: The total coke output decreased slightly [42] - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [43] - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [44] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [44] Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot market was bearish [45] - Supply: The production of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [45][46] - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [46] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased [46] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [47] Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas were stable [48] - Futures: On May 29, the 07 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.38% to 5322 yuan/ton [48] - Cost and profit: The cost of ferrosilicon production in different regions was different, and some enterprises were in the red [48] - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to decline [49][50] - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon decreased, and the non - steel demand was weak [50] - Viewpoint: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [50] Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas decreased slightly [51] - Futures: On May 29, the 09 contract of manganese silicon decreased by 1.36% to 5530 yuan/ton [51] - Cost: The production cost and profit in different regions were different [51] - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore was under pressure, and the global shipment decreased slightly [51][52][55] - Supply: The output of manganese silicon increased slightly [52] - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, but the iron water output decreased [53][55] - Viewpoint: The price of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [56] - Fundamental news: The global soybean supply is expected to be sufficient, and the inventory will increase significantly [56] - Market outlook: The two - meal market is expected to oscillate, and the soybean meal may face callback risks above 2950 yuan/ton [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [59][60] - Market outlook: The pig price is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward space. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [60] Corn - Spot price: The corn prices in different regions were generally stable [61] - Fundamental news: The inventory of corn processing enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of feed enterprises increased [61] - Market outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate with the shipping rhythm [61]

根据欧盟委员会5月26日声明，美欧双方已就加速贸易谈判达成共识，特朗普政府同意将对欧盟加征 50%关税的期限从原定的6月1日延至7月9日。 这一决定是欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与特朗普在周日晚上通话后作出的。 报道称，默茨表示完全支持冯德莱恩的应对方式，并重申德国不会单独达成协议而将贸易事务交由欧盟 处理的立场。不过，他也强调必要时欧盟将采取行动。 在距离新关税生效仅剩六周之际，欧盟对美国的态度似乎呈现出"边谈边打"的微妙态势。欧盟一边加速 推进与美国进行贸易谈判，德国总理默茨一边发出警告：若与特朗普政府的贸易冲突升级，欧盟可能对 美国科技公司采取反制措施。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间26日，德国总理默茨表示，德国和其他欧盟国家不希望关税争端升级。从德 国的角度看，加征关税会损害德国的利益，如果欧美谈判无法达成一致，德国没有选择，德国将会对美 国关税政策进行反击。现在的欧美谈判正在努力避免局势升级，德国也希望避免关税战这种情况的出 现。默茨还称，德国需要为欧盟与美国谈判的失败以及其他任何情况做好准备。 此外默茨表示，美国科技公司在欧盟享有有利的税收环境，但这种情况不一定会持续下去，欧盟不希望 与美国陷入关税战升级的 ...

金十数据5月26日讯，据外媒报道，德国总理默茨表示，若与特朗普政府的贸易冲突升级，欧盟可能对 美国科技公司采取报复措施。作为欧洲最大经济体的领导人，默茨虽旨在降低关税并缓和与白宫的紧张 关系，但他强调欧盟需保护自身利益，并指出美国在与欧盟的服务贸易中存在顺差。"目前，我们（欧 盟）在税收等方面大力保护美国科技公司，"默茨周一在柏林举行的WDR欧洲论坛会议上表示，"这种 情况可能改变，但我不希望冲突升级，而是希望共同解决问题。" 德国总理：若局势升级 可能对美国科技公司采取报复措施 ...

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克林拜尔称，美国需要和欧盟进行认真的关税谈判，而不是进一步的挑衅；如果欧美无法就关税议题达 成协议，欧盟将团结一致，采取坚决果断的反制措施。克林拜尔强调，欧盟需要团结一致，坚决维护欧 洲的利益，欧盟希望欧美双方能够缓和紧张局势并寻求政治解决方案，贸易冲突正在损害欧美双方所有 人的利益，必须迅速结束。（央视新闻） 5月25日，德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔表示，美国提高关税对美国经济的危害，至少与对德 国和欧盟经济的危害一样严重，是一种"双输"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

Core Viewpoint - The German Finance Minister emphasizes that trade conflicts harm everyone's interests and must be stopped quickly [1] Group 1 - Trade conflicts are detrimental to all parties involved, indicating a need for immediate resolution [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of proposed tariffs by the U.S. government on the stock market, particularly focusing on the technology sector and the implications for U.S.-EU trade relations [4][10]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On May 23, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 256.02 points (0.61%) at 41,603.07 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 188.53 points (1.00%) at 18,737.21 points, and the S&P 500 down 39.19 points (0.67%) at 5,802.82 points [1]. - For the week, the Dow and Nasdaq both fell 2.47%, losing 1,052 points and 474 points respectively, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.61%, down 155 points [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector Impact - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple down over 3%, AMD nearly 3%, and Intel over 2%. Other tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta also saw drops exceeding 1% [2]. - The article highlights a mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.05%, while companies like Alibaba and NIO faced declines [2]. Group 3: Tariff Proposals and Trade Relations - President Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, citing trade barriers and unfair practices by the EU [4][5]. - The EU has initiated public consultations regarding potential countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, indicating ongoing trade tensions [5]. Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The article notes that the U.S. dollar and bond markets are facing challenges due to the country's dual deficit status, which requires continuous foreign capital inflow [9]. - Analysts express concerns that a lack of foreign interest in U.S. debt could lead to increased volatility in exchange rates and bond yields [9]. Group 5: Hedge Fund Strategies - Goldman Sachs reports that hedge funds reduced their holdings in major U.S. tech stocks while increasing investments in Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [14]. - This shift reflects growing interest in Chinese tech stocks, which are perceived as undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts [14].

有人说不被嘲笑的梦想不值得追求，也有人说都被看好的行情不值得坚持，断了线的风筝，虽然无拘无束，但很快栽到地上，就好比离开了我的不愿做时间 的朋友。 所以，黄金自从突破3250美元，新的上涨已经开始，至于这一次上涨会不会突破3500美元，我不作预判，也不去猜测，我只关注最后一次上升前支撑有没有 失效，就像3250美元突破一样，突破了就马上干多。 好了，说一下今天黄金的行情： 周三，金价亚盘强势拉升到3320美元，这个位置的目标与《黄金，破3250后加速度！》中文提到的观点一致，回踩确认是为了更好的上涨，昨晚内部二场直 播时，刚好遇到金价快速下跌到3190美元，而我很坚定的说，只要3170支撑没有破位，下跌就是倒车接人，目标直至3340美元，今天早上就完美抵达。 另外，今天同样是依托支撑区域做多黄金，昨天3320美元是中美贸易消息影响跳空低开后的缺口，回补完之后下一站将挑战3360-3380美元，好不容易等了 这么久，有的朋友终于解套了，又很着急的下车了，坚持的目的仅仅只是为了逃跑，而我依旧愿做时间的朋友！ 牛又回来了，而你还大吗？其实牛从来就没有走远，更没有丢过，丢的是信仰，是对未来的担心和害怕，割在了地板上， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of trade conflicts, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for the U.S. and China, as well as the potential for future trade negotiations [7][10][29]. Group 1: Hot Topics - Financial pressure may be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more dovish stance, particularly in the context of ongoing tariff pressures [5][35]. - The article explores the "endgame" of trade conflicts, suggesting that future negotiations may involve splitting issues to facilitate partial agreements, which could be more realistic [29][37]. - The article highlights the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, identifying nine industries with strong dependencies that are difficult to replace [10][12]. Group 2: Policy Insights - The article outlines recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [26]. - It discusses the implications of April's inflation data, noting that while tariffs have impacted the Producer Price Index (PPI), improved consumer demand has supported the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) [18][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, along with enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [25][26]. Group 3: Trade Agreements - The recent economic prosperity agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. is analyzed, with a focus on the incremental information it provides regarding future trade negotiations [7][19]. - The article suggests that the core interests in trade negotiations may be challenging to reconcile, indicating potential conflicts in future discussions [29][37]. - It also notes that the easing of tariff tensions may validate the notion of China's manufacturing being difficult to replace, with specific industries highlighted for their resilience [10][12].