Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk - preference recovery suppresses gold prices, but gold's long - term bullish trend remains unchanged, with tariff - induced slowdown in the US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle providing medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit building the long - term bullish foundation [1][6] - The trading of short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the logic of weakening US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, with positive sentiment in the gold market [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US President Trump said the US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [2] - Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week, and the US plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine war [2] - Some Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the cooling of the US job market and economic slowdown, though they are still uncertain about inflation [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday. Despite weak US economic data, the recovery of market risk - preference suppressed the safe - haven demand for gold. However, trade uncertainties and interest - rate cut expectations provide support [3] - Investors still bet that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with an expected cumulative cut of over 50 basis points this year [3] - Trump's tariff announcements on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have intensified global trade tensions, which may limit the decline of gold prices [3] - The negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been exhausted, and the emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, becoming a slow - variable [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly focus for London gold spot is [3300, 3500], and for London silver spot is [36, 40] [6]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced range-bound fluctuations, ultimately closing up 0.02% at 98.727 after a brief dip following the release of US services PMI data [2][3] - Spot gold saw a V-shaped reversal, reaching a peak of $3390 per ounce before closing up 0.22% at $3380.86, marking a near two-week high [2][3] - Spot silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce [2][3] Economic Indicators - The US trade balance recorded a deficit of $60.2 billion in June, the smallest since September 2023, while July's services PMI and new orders index fell short of expectations, indicating a potential softening in domestic demand [3] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with Russia considering only a partial ceasefire and the US planning to sanction Russian energy buyers, which could exacerbate global supply chain risks [4] Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced plans to implement tariffs on pharmaceuticals up to 250% and significantly increased tariffs on India, while threatening a 35% tariff on the EU, intensifying trade tensions [3] Investment Strategies - The multiple tariff threats are expected to elevate inflation expectations, reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal. A short-term upward movement in gold requires breaking through the resistance level around $3450, while maintaining support around $3350 [5] - Silver faces pressure from industrial demand concerns, with a rebound likely to encounter resistance near $38, while support around $37 could provide a base for potential gains [5]

2025年7月，钢铁产业链产品价格呈现震荡上涨走势。通过对各产品价格变化情况来看，成本端驱动较 为突出，产业链下游产品上涨力度略低于原料端。分环节来看，铁矿石均价环比涨超5%，但焦炭均价 环比略有降低，同比表现上看，焦炭价格则下降了接近40%。 基本面上，根据调研的钢厂意愿和7月份的利润表现来看，冷镀类供应压力或依旧较低，上游产品供应 压力则有一定增大可能性，从而加速价格和利润向下传导。需求方面，需注意传统旺季前夕，市场能否 出现集中备货的可能性。若需求保持稳定释放，则对市场利多影响有限。 （作者：刘炙鑫，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 展望8月份，预计钢铁产业链产品趋势整体震荡上涨，价格重心或有所上移。主要逻辑如下：8月，需要 关注国际上贸易摩擦的缓和与国内主流经济数据的变化，整体偏利多大宗商品市场。 国内经济方面，关注各类稳生产措施落地进度，密切关注各地促进消费类政策的延伸表现。同时货币政 策方面，政策工具箱较为丰富，不排除出现双降的概率，关注未来国内经济数据变化对市场的影响。 原料方面，卓创资讯认为，目前焦煤价格暂无回落，入炉煤成本仍在高位，焦化厂亏损情况下，短期焦 炭价格仍有支撑，但随着焦煤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between the US and India, primarily over India's oil purchases from Russia, highlight the complex interplay of global energy security and economic interests, revealing geopolitical rifts between the two nations [1][3]. Group 1: US-India Trade Relations - The US has imposed punitive tariffs on India, accusing it of undermining international sanctions by profiting from Russian oil sales [1][3]. - India has responded by emphasizing its need for Russian oil to ensure energy security and has criticized the US for its double standards, noting that the US previously encouraged such purchases [3][5]. - The trade dispute extends beyond oil, with India refusing to grant tariff concessions on agricultural products, leading to dissatisfaction from the US [5]. Group 2: Energy Security and Economic Impact - India's imports of Russian oil have surged dramatically, from approximately 68,000 barrels per day in early 2022 to 2.15 million barrels per day by May 2023, making Russia its largest oil supplier [3]. - India consumes about 5.5 million barrels of oil daily, with nearly 90% of its consumption reliant on imports, making it difficult to abandon Russian oil due to geopolitical pressures [3][6]. - The US's approach of using economic pressure may not yield the desired results and could instead lead India to diversify its energy sources further, potentially strengthening ties with Russia [6][8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The ongoing US-India conflict over Russian oil reflects broader power struggles in the reconfiguration of international order, with the US seeking to position India as a strategic ally against Russia and China [5][8]. - India's firm stance on oil imports is not only a pragmatic choice for energy security but also a signal against perceived US hegemony and its coercive tactics [5][8]. - The situation underscores the need for both nations to navigate their interests carefully, balancing cooperation and competition in a multipolar world [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global macroeconomic environment, trade dynamics, and the implications for various industries, particularly focusing on China and the U.S. manufacturing sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Trust System Erosion**: The global trust in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds has weakened due to trade frictions and foreign reserve freezes, prompting countries to diversify their asset allocations and reduce reliance on the dollar [1][5][10]. 2. **Rising Wealth Inequality**: Increasing wealth disparity is leading to heightened social tensions, which could result in political forces shifting internal conflicts outward, posing global risks [1][6][8]. 3. **U.S. Trade Frictions**: The U.S. has initiated trade tensions to secure its economy, reduce dependence on foreign core products, and revive domestic manufacturing to boost employment [1][9]. 4. **China's Resource Security**: China is focusing on enhancing the security of its core resources, including commodities and technology, to achieve self-sufficiency in its supply chains [1][10]. 5. **Shift in China's Social Contradictions**: The primary social contradiction in China has shifted to the growing needs for a better life versus unbalanced development, leading to a policy focus on addressing these imbalances [1][11][12]. 6. **Real Estate Cycle Impact**: The real estate cycle has reached a turning point since 2018, significantly affecting China's interest rate system and necessitating a reevaluation of strategies [1][14][15]. 7. **Investment Strategy in Low Inflation**: In a low inflation environment, preserving capital should be the main goal for wealth allocation, favoring stable assets and high-dividend opportunities [2][19]. 8. **Changes in Global Asset Pricing**: The global asset pricing paradigm has shifted, with countries reassessing their relationships with the U.S. and becoming more cautious in their investments in U.S. debt [1][18]. 9. **Long-term Investment Opportunities**: High-dividend assets and export-oriented investments are highlighted as valuable in the current economic climate, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and solar modules [22]. 10. **New Consumption Trends**: Emerging consumption trends, such as value-driven and emotional purchases, are identified as having significant market potential [23]. 11. **Technological Innovation**: Technological advancements are expected to lower production costs and create substantial investment opportunities, despite not significantly increasing inflation [24]. 12. **Adjustment of Investment Thinking**: A shift in investment thinking is necessary to adapt to the new macroeconomic framework, moving away from traditional stimulus measures and focusing on high-quality development [25]. 13. **Optimistic Outlook on China's Economy**: There is a positive outlook on China's economic prospects, driven by the competitiveness of its manufacturing sector and the potential for significant investment opportunities [26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of historical, political, and international relations factors to navigate the changing macroeconomic landscape effectively [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that shipping rates from Asia to the US are under significant pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with rates dropping 58% for the West Coast and 46% for the East Coast since June 1 [1] - Xeneta warns that shipping rates from Asia to the US will continue to decline into 2025 due to persistent oversupply, with more new ships expected to enter the market in the second half of the year [1] - Major Japanese shipping companies have expressed uncertainty about the market outlook for the second half of the fiscal year due to increasing trade uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The oversupply of global shipping capacity is leading companies to cancel sailings to maintain freight rates, particularly as demand from Asia to the US weakens and European demand remains sluggish [2] - A temporary rebound in shipping rates in late May and early June was short-lived, primarily driven by companies rushing to ship goods before potential tariff increases [2] - The US domestic logistics system is currently operating smoothly, indicating a significant reduction in cross-border shipping volumes [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea have inadvertently absorbed about 10% of global shipping capacity, providing some support for freight rates [3] - Some shipping companies are rerouting to avoid US ports due to tariffs, which extends travel times and reduces available shipping capacity [3] - While shipping volumes from Asia to the US are declining, there is a regional differentiation in freight rates, with rates to Europe and Latin America remaining relatively high [3]

美元指数小幅回落，欧元兑美元保持稳定，日元因日本央行对贸易摩擦缓解持开放态度而小幅走强。瑞士法郎表现稳健，瑞士正积极与美国谈判， 避免可能达到39%的高额进口关税，努力维护出口导向的经济稳定。 近期，美日双方就汽车关税达成了降低协议，美国将把日本汽车进口关税从此前的27.5%降至15%。Moneta外汇关注到，日本高级谈判代表计划亲 赴美国，敦促加快落实这一关税协议，推动相关行政命令尽快签署生效。这一举措不仅有助于缓解两国贸易紧张局势，也为汽车产业链带来更明确 的预期。 关税调整涉及汽车及汽车零部件，旨在消除此前"叠加征税"问题，确保已征收高于15%关税的商品免受额外负担。Moneta外汇表示，此举反映出双 方在贸易细节上的积极协调，期望通过稳定的政策环境促进双边贸易增长。 与此同时，美元走势受到多重因素影响呈现波动。美国最新发布的就业数据暴露劳动力市场疲软，迅速推动市场对美联储9月份降息的预期大幅上 升。目前市场预估美联储降息的概率接近95%，较一周前的63%显著提升。多位美联储官员也表达了对降息的支持，认为当前通胀压力减缓，经济 需要货币政策支持。 Moneta外汇认为，当前全球贸易环境仍充满不确定性，关 ...

Group 1 - The communication between India and the U.S. has been ineffective due to key diplomatic positions remaining vacant, hindering India's ability to negotiate a favorable trade agreement [1][2] - India faces increased urgency to present its stance to the U.S. after being unexpectedly subjected to a 25% tariff, one of the highest in the region, and further threats due to its relationship with Russia [1] - President Trump indicated that tariffs would be "significantly" raised due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which the U.S. claims supports President Putin amid the Ukraine conflict [1] Group 2 - A critical vacant position in the U.S. is the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, responsible for overseeing U.S. foreign policy in the region, with a nominee yet to be confirmed [2] - The U.S. Ambassador to India position has been vacant since January 2025, complicating the management of bilateral tensions [2] - The reduction of the National Security Council (NSC) staff from over 300 during the Biden administration to about 50 under Trump has exacerbated challenges in U.S.-India relations [2]

根据美国商务部数据显示，2024年，美国与印度的商品贸易金额大约为1288亿美元，印度对美贸易顺差 为458亿美元。（姜蔼玲） 责任编辑：江蓬新 美国《纽约时报》当地时间8月2日报道称，尽管美国总统特朗普威胁将对印度购买俄罗斯能源产品等行 为实施"惩罚"，印度方面表示，将继续从俄罗斯购买石油。 截至发稿前，白宫、印度方面暂无回应。 特朗普7月30日宣布，从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。特朗普发帖抱怨印度关税税率太 高，非关税壁垒又比其他任何国家都要"繁重和讨厌"，导致美印贸易多年来维持较小规模。特朗普还 说，美国将针对印度购买俄罗斯武器和能源产品施加"惩罚"。 报道援引两名印度高级官员的话称，印度的政策并未发生变化。一名官员透露说，印度政府"没有向石 油公司下达任何指示"，要求他们减少从俄罗斯的进口。 报道提到，特朗普此前（7月30日）威胁称，作为新一轮关税措施的一部分，如果印度不停止进口俄罗 斯石油，他将对印度施加惩罚性措施。随后在8月1日，他又对记者表示，"据了解，印度将不再从俄罗 斯购买石油"，但也补充称，"我不知道这是否属实"。 ...

部分委员特别强调："由于薪资增长保持坚挺且物价涨幅略超预期，若贸易摩擦出现缓和迹象，央行或 将改变当前观望立场，考虑重启加息进程。" 智通财经APP获悉，根据周二公布的6月货币政策会议纪要，少数日本央行委员表示，若贸易紧张局势 出现缓和，央行将考虑重启加息进程。 会议纪要显示，尽管通胀水平略超预期，但多数委员认为考虑到美国关税政策带来的经济下行风险，央 行必须维持现行利率水平。 一位委员在会议中指出："鉴于当前高度不确定性，日本央行可能会暂时维持利率不变。但同时也需要 保持政策灵活性，根据美国政策动向适时重启加息周期。" 在6月16-17日的政策会议上，日本央行决定将基准利率维持在0.5%不变，并宣布将于明年放缓资产负债 表缩减步伐，显示出其在退出大规模刺激政策时保持谨慎的态度。 ...