1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It provides insights into their market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, macro - economic factors, and industry news [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Bean Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean and bean meal indices showed small increases. Conab estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production and export volume. EU's soybean and bean meal imports had changes. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories also changed. Macro factors led to increased downward pressure on the bean meal market [16][17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points for the 05 contract, M11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [18]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar futures rebounded. Brazil's sugar exports increased in October. Some sugar mills in China started operation. Globally, sugar production was expected to increase, and the price of raw sugar was fundamentally weak. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was expected to follow the foreign market [19][20][21]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting a rebound and repair in the short - term, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [22]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia adjusted palm oil reference prices, and Indonesia planned to regulate palm oil exports. Domestic soybean oil was slightly increasing in inventory, and rapeseed oil was marginally reducing inventory. Affected by the macro - environment, the market was expected to fluctuate [23][24][26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Considering light - position long - entry on significant pull - backs, OI 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage without chasing high prices, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [26]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures rebounded slightly, but the harvest pressure was heavy. Domestic new corn was concentrated on the market, and the spot price continued to fall. The 01 contract showed signs of stabilization [29][30]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long - entry for the 12 - contract on dips, light - position long - entry for the 01 contract, and gradually establishing long - term long - positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [31]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices were oscillating, with stable prices in most regions. Piglet and sow prices declined. The overall supply was relatively sufficient, and the spot price was under downward pressure [32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: A wait - and - see attitude for all trading methods [33]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: Peanut prices were slightly down, and some oil mills suspended procurement. Peanut inventory decreased, and peanut oil inventory increased. Affected by rainfall, the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long - entry on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [36]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down. The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, and the demand was average. The near - month contract was expected to fluctuate weakly [38][39][40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points for the near - month contract, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [40]. Apples - **Market Conditions**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and export and import volumes changed. Apple prices were stable or slightly up. The expected low high - quality fruit rate was expected to support the price [42][43][44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting the price to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [44]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton futures fell. New cotton in Xinjiang was in the harvest season, and the cotton yarn market was divided. The new cotton supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not strong [45][46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting a slightly weakening trend, trading at appropriate times, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [47]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Conditions**: The steel price was slightly under pressure, and the market was in a bottom - oscillating state. The output of some steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased during the holiday. The market was affected by macro - policies and international trade issues [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Maintaining a bottom - oscillating trend, long - entry for the spread between hot - rolled and threaded steel at low points, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [50]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coking coal prices were stable or slightly up, and the coke market was stable. The supply of coking coal in October was expected to be stable, and the demand was supported by high iron - water production. The market was in a balanced state [51][52]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points for coking coal, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly at night. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand was weakening. The iron ore price was expected to be weak in the fourth quarter [54][55]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling in the medium - term, reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using circuit - breaker cumulative put options [56]. Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were stable or slightly down. The demand for ferroalloys was under pressure, but the cost provided support. The market was in a bottom - oscillating state [57][58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bottom - oscillating state, selling out - of - the - money put options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. Gold reached a new high and then corrected, while silver also had a large - amplitude fluctuation. The US dollar index fell, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates [60][61]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points based on the 5 - day moving average, and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and silver [62]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Copper futures prices fell. The supply of copper mines was expected to decrease, and the inventory changes were different in different markets. The consumption was in a weak peak season [65]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points, maintaining cross - market positive spread arbitrage, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [66]. Alumina - **Market Conditions**: Alumina futures and spot prices fell. The supply was in an over - supply state, and some enterprises were in a loss state. The price was expected to be weak [67][69][71]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [74]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The price of electrolytic aluminum futures fell, and the spot price rose. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact on the aluminum market, and the medium - term price was expected to strengthen [73][76]. - **Trading Strategies**: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Conditions**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fell, and the spot price was stable. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact, and the scrap aluminum price was relatively firm [77]. - **Trading Strategies**: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Zinc futures prices fell. The domestic supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The overseas market was strong. The price was expected to be volatile [81][82]. - **Trading Strategies**: Taking profit on short - positions at appropriate times, short - selling at high points, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [83][85]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: Lead futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the supply was expected to increase in the second half of October. The price was at risk of falling from a high level [86][87]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points, and selling out - of - the - money call options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [87][88]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: LME nickel price fell, and the inventory increased. An accident in an Indonesian factory had no impact on production. The nickel price was under pressure [90][92]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not provided in the text. Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The production of stainless steel was increasing, but the demand was weak, and the price was under pressure [94]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling, selling a 2511 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [95]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Conditions**: The production of industrial silicon was affected by factory shutdowns and restarts. The demand was strong in the short - term. The price was expected to fluctuate in the medium - term [99]. - **Trading Strategies**: Holding long - positions and taking profit at the upper limit of the range, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [99][100]. Polysilicon - **Market Conditions**: The production of polysilicon increased in October, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by the cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [102]. - **Trading Strategies**: Holding long - positions, 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spread arbitrage, and adjusting option strategies [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The supply of lithium carbonate was affected by mine approvals, and the demand was supported by the production of Tesla and new energy vehicles. The price was expected to oscillate [106]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillating between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, selling a 2601 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [107]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: Tin futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory decrease provided some support. The market awaited the resumption of production in Myanmar [110]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not provided in the text.

Core Points - The U.S. President has labeled China as "economically hostile" due to its refusal to purchase American soybeans, which has led to threats of halting imports of cooking oil and other products from China as retaliation [1][2] - The U.S. administration is considering terminating business relations with China regarding cooking oil and other trade elements, emphasizing the capability to produce cooking oil domestically [3] - China's recent export controls on rare earth elements have prompted a significant escalation in trade tensions, leading to increased tariffs on imports from China [5][6] Industry Impact - Soybeans are a critical agricultural product in the U.S., with cooking oil being one of the main derivatives, alongside animal feed [4] - The U.S. primarily imports cooking oil from Canada, but China is a significant supplier of used cooking oil (UCO) for biofuels, indicating a potential disruption in the biofuel supply chain due to trade tensions [4] - The demand for used cooking oil in the U.S. has surged, particularly as the previous administration aimed to support green transportation initiatives [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trade friction has no impact on the company's business, and it will continue to monitor trade policies and adjust strategies accordingly [1] Company Summary - The company has stated that its product solutions possess strong competitiveness, enabling it to adapt to changes in the external environment [1]

格隆汇10月15日丨中科创达(300496.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，目前看, 贸易摩擦对公司业务没有影 响。公司将持续关注相关贸易政策情况，并会对战略、业务进行积极的调整和适配。公司的产品解决方 案有较强的竞争力, 可以应对外部环境的变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market, particularly rebar, is experiencing weakened demand and price fluctuations due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to increased inventory pressure and a lack of significant improvement in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Rebar Market Dynamics - The traditional peak season for rebar, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has diminished, with inventory levels during the National Day holiday exceeding historical averages [1]. - Rebar prices are showing weak fluctuations, while raw material prices remain strong, indicating a lack of negative feedback in the supply chain [1]. - Steel mills are implementing production control measures to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in lower rebar production levels this year [1]. Group 2: Hot Roll and Steel Billet Risks - The main risks for hot-rolled steel in Q4 include a decline in domestic demand and pressure on exports, with downstream orders for cold-rolled galvanized products shrinking [2]. - Hot-rolled steel inventory levels are higher than the same period last year, indicating potential oversupply [2]. - Steel billet exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 1.76 million tons in August, but production profits are now negative, raising concerns about future output [2]. Group 3: Raw Material and Cost Dynamics - High pig iron production is supporting raw material prices, with coal and iron ore prices outperforming finished steel since August [3]. - Rebar production profits are currently low, with long-process profits below 100 yuan per ton and short-process profits around -100 yuan per ton [3]. - The cost support for rebar remains intact due to healthy fundamentals in the raw material sector, despite the lack of significant upward momentum in rebar prices [3]. Group 4: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including upcoming political meetings and monetary policy decisions, which could influence rebar prices [3]. - There is a notable contradiction between weak demand and strong cost support for rebar, but the situation has not yet reached a level of negative feedback that would significantly impact prices [3]. - Overall, the rebar market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, with caution advised regarding potential volatility due to changing market expectations [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bearish, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - The asphalt market has few positive factors and the market is running weakly. The asphalt futures and spot prices are showing a downward trend. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with insufficient demand growth momentum and local pressure emerging. The market may fluctuate repeatedly due to the impact of crude oil trends and increased macro - level disturbances, so caution is recommended [1] Market Analysis - On October 14, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 99,108 lots, a decrease of 4,179 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 100,725 lots, a decrease of 41,232 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,330 - 3,670 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,380 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the South China, and 3,450 - 3,550 yuan/ton in the East China [1] - The asphalt market has been on a continuous downward trend recently. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China remained relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions decreased to varying degrees [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month asphalt futures, the trading volume and open interest of the asphalt futures, the weekly domestic asphalt production, the asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

值得注意的是，受贸易摩擦影响，欧元继续下跌，而日元则维持住了横盘，侧面印证了避险资金的流 入。 但日本由于受公明党退出联合政府导致日本接下来的首相选举出现变数会影响日元走势，原本定于10月 15日召开的临时国会被迫推迟至10月21日。 从当前格局看，本周美元兑日元或维持震荡区间运行，但如果出现不利于高市早苗竞选首相的消息，或 者向不利于高市早苗竞选的方向发展，汇价可能重新向利于日元的方向发展。 周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元/日元延续跌势，跌破151.50。随着中美贸易紧张局势升级，美元进 一步走弱，抵消了风险情绪的复苏。所有目光仍集中在美联储的言论和日本政治上，以寻找新的交易激 励。 周末短暂平静后，全球市场再度进入紧张状态。从外汇市场表现来看，这一动态推动避险需求上升，日 本日元与瑞郎获得的避险资金流入多于美元，不过美元相对其他多数货币仍维持强势。 在此背景下，此前市场对美元兑日元的看涨预期不得不搁置，交易者在当前不确定性环境中，更倾向于 依托日元的防御属性进行布局。 能否达成相关协议(或延长关税休战期限)，目前仍有待观察，相关风险正持续上升。 不过，若要推动美元兑日元汇率出现大幅下行，还需日本政治局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly increased, approaching historical highs, driven by trade tensions and expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest levels in weeks [1] - Lower yields and borrowing costs are generally favorable for precious metals [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Insufficient liquidity in the London market has plagued the silver market, resulting in a global surge in demand and pushing benchmark prices above New York futures prices [1] - Traders remain anxious ahead of the U.S. government's conclusion of the Section 232 investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium [1] - There are renewed concerns that these metals may be included in new tariff ranges, despite being officially exempted from tariffs in April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, influenced by strong quarterly results from major banks, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and rising uncertainties in trade policy [3][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 202.88 points to close at 46,270.46, an increase of 0.44% - The S&P 500 index fell by 10.41 points to 6,644.31, a decrease of 0.16% - The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 172.91 points to 22,521.70, a decline of 0.76% [3]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks faced pressure, with notable declines in Nvidia (down 4.41%), Amazon (down 1.67%), and Tesla (down 1.53%) - The Consumer Staples sector led gains, increasing by 1.72%, followed by the Industrial sector, which rose by 1.17% [3][4]. Banking Sector Highlights - Several major US banks reported strong earnings, with investment banking performance driving the financial sector higher - Wells Fargo shares rose by 7.15%, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2024, while Citigroup shares increased by nearly 4% [4]. - JPMorgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast, and Goldman Sachs also reported better-than-expected quarterly profits, although both saw their stock prices decline by about 2% [5]. Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 2.1 basis points to 4.03%, reaching a near one-month low - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October stand at 96.7% [5]. - Powell indicated that the labor market remains weak with low hiring and layoffs, but the overall economy may be more resilient than expected [5]. Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $58.70 per barrel, down 1.33% - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.74% to $4,163.4 per ounce [6].

Group 1 - U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 202.88 points to 46270.46, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 10.41 points to 6644.31 and 172.91 points to 22521.70 respectively [2] - Major U.S. banks reported strong earnings, with Wells Fargo rising 7.15% and Citigroup nearly 4%, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs saw their stock prices drop by about 2% despite exceeding profit expectations [3] - The S&P 500 index saw 10 out of 11 sectors increase, led by consumer staples which rose 1.72% and industrials which increased by 1.17% [2][3] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025, citing lower-than-expected impacts from tariffs and financial conditions, but warned that escalating trade tensions could hinder global output [4] - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $58.70 per barrel, down 1.33%, and Brent crude oil futures at $62.39 per barrel, down 1.47% [4] - Gold prices reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.74% to $4163.4 per ounce [4]