1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy supports the stabilization and rebound of oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward macro - economic pressure and the expected deterioration of fundamentals due to OPEC's production increase continue to suppress oil prices. After significant fluctuations, oil prices may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [4]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side and have difficulty in having independent market trends. The high - sulfur variety's short - term strong support pattern remains unchanged, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety has not shown significant pressure for the time being [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) strengthened restrictions on Iran's oil trade, adding a Chinese independent refinery and multiple shipping companies and vessels to the sanctions list. On April 17, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.88% to 482.7 yuan/barrel, and closed at 495.3 yuan/barrel at night. Internationally, WTI closed up 1.92 dollars/barrel at 63.75 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 1.96 dollars/barrel at 66.92 dollars/barrel [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situation - Powell mentioned that the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to persistent inflation and slower economic growth, and reiterated not to rush to cut interest rates. Trump criticized Powell, and the conflict between them may affect US economic policies and financial market stability. Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum on a mineral agreement, and Trump said the agreement would be signed on the 24th [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The US imposed the eighth round of sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil trade network, which increased concerns about a decline in Iran's crude oil production. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, 260,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. Russia plans to keep its crude oil production and exports stable until 2050 [13][14]. Demand - Due to trade tensions, the IEA and OPEC both lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. China's imports of Iranian crude oil reached a record high of 1.8 million barrels per day in March, with Shandong alone absorbing over 1.5 million barrels per day [15]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 515,000 barrels in the week ending April 11. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.4%, indicating that the spring maintenance this year may last longer than usual. The terminal demand was weak, and the reduction in gasoline inventory slowed down [3]. 3.5 Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose, with increases of 3.32%, 2.92%, and 2.71% respectively. Most of the spot prices also increased, and the price differences between different varieties changed to varying degrees [7]. Fuel Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, with increases of 2.42%, 3.36%, and 1.26% respectively. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices also increased, and the inventory in Singapore increased by 3.93% [8]. 3.6 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - The domestic SC main contract and some spot prices rose. Internationally, WTI and Brent prices also increased. The US - Iran sanctions, trade tensions, and other factors affected the supply and demand of the oil market [9][10][13]. 3.7 Industry Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of the oil market [18][21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting concerns over rising prices and inflation for both businesses and consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Economy - California has become the first state to sue the Trump administration over tariffs, claiming they are illegal and causing economic chaos [1]. - Professor Nick Vyas warns that the tariffs will increase the cost of imported goods, leading to price and inflation pressures on U.S. businesses and consumers [1][3]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that U.S. tariffs are severely deteriorating global trade prospects, with a projected 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, and a 12.6% drop in North American exports [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Labor Market - Vyas expresses skepticism about the return of labor-intensive industries to the U.S. due to high labor costs, even in the medium to long term [3][4]. - He suggests that capital-intensive industries, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, are more likely to thrive in the U.S. due to their reliance on advanced manufacturing and technology [3]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Effects - Tariffs are not only affecting the U.S. economy but also have profound implications for global supply chains, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 245% [5]. - Vyas indicates that sustained high tariffs could lead to significant challenges for global economic growth, potentially being the largest challenge since World War II [6]. - The "friend-shoring" policy introduced during the Biden administration aims to limit supply chain outsourcing to trusted countries, but the current tariff situation undermines this strategy [6]. Group 4: Regional Economic Impact - Southeast Asian countries are particularly affected by the tariffs, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff and Cambodia even higher at 49% [6]. - Vyas notes that high tariffs will weaken global competitiveness and force companies to seek new trade routes or relocate production [7].

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 对等关税与美国国内不同利益群体的博弈 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 17 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金 隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 特朗普"对等关税"反复多变或与美国国内博弈有关。美国并非铁板一块， 笼统地讨论美国如何可能并不确切，特朗普背后至少有红脖子劳工、金融 资本、科技资本等几种不同利益群体，"对等关税"计划的反复多变可能 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2509 contract may be consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be range - bound due to multiple factors [2] - The short - term corn futures price will range - bound, with a range - trading approach [3] - For copper, maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4] - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [5][6] - For steel, consider a low - level long - buying approach as macro negatives are digested [7] - Coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly oscillatory [9] - For WTI crude oil, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel for INE crude oil [10] - For rubber, pay attention to the downstream start - up situation, with support near 14000 yuan/ton [11] - The PVC futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] - The soda ash futures may have a short - term weak - oscillatory trend [13] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao Jiji is 8000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new crops are likely to have a good harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may be neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3720 yuan/ton, 3440 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. US soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply is tight, and downstream demand has a slight boost [2] Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2300 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff increases raise import costs, and domestic supply pressure eases. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are still some suppressing factors [3] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 75720 - 76120 yuan, down 275 yuan [4] - **Market Analysis**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of resonance between reality and expectation [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are 70750 yuan/ton and 69350 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1400 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium concentrate is expected to decline. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum. Inventory is accumulating [5][6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.13%, and social and steel mill inventories are 590.95 million tons and 207.12 million tons respectively [7] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a low - valuation. Cost is rising, and inventory is decreasing. The market is driven by macro policies and fundamentals [7] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1200 yuan/ton, and the price at Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [8] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts index of iron ore is 99.95, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore are provided [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. US tariff policies suppress the upward space [9] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of tariff policies on the market is mentioned [10] - **Market Analysis**: The impact of "equivalent tariffs" is weakening. OPEC is increasing production, but demand may be affected by trade wars [10] Rubber - **Spot Information**: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of US tariffs on the rubber market is mentioned [11] - **Market Analysis**: The rubber market is affected by tariffs. The supply is abundant, and demand may be suppressed [11] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of East China 5 - type PVC and ethylene - based PVC are 4820 yuan/ton and 5050 yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is decreasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1447.81 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is average. The futures price may be weakly oscillatory [13]

金十数据4月16日讯，在近日举办的2025国际橡塑展期间，巴斯夫高级副总裁、亚太区特性材料部负责 人鲍磊伟表示，巴斯夫在欧洲、亚洲、北美等主要生产基地多年以来坚持本土化原料供应、生产和销售 策略，"公司韧性很强"，关税对巴斯夫自有化工品和生产业务所产生的直接影响不大。但他同时指出， 由于市场变化迅速，公司下游客户的产品出口业务会否受影响还需要进一步评估。鲍磊伟举例称，在汽 车产业领域，公司评估认为中国汽车产业受美国"对等关税"直接影响不大，但美国是日本、韩国汽车重 要出口地，日韩车企会否受关税潜在影响，尚要等90天关税暂缓期过后再确认。 （一财） 巴斯夫高管回应"对等关税"影响：日韩车企或受潜在影响 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 聚焦美国关税政策 过去一周，特朗普总统在几天之内对中国进口产品的关税调高到125%，连带之前与芬太尼相关的20% 关税，美国对中国进口产品的划一关税已升至145%。除此之外，中国的钢铝产品、汽车产品也在其他 关税的覆盖范围之内。中国则将所有原产地于美国的商品的关税同比例调高至125%，同时以美国产品 已经失去了市场接受的可能性为由，宣布不再理会美国进一步调升的关税税率，但会反击任何新的实质 性伤害。 的确，"对等关税"对于中美贸易已经产生影响。货运数据公司Vizion数据显示，中国赴美集装箱的订舱 数量上周急降到148000TEU（Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit，是国际上用于描述集装箱船及码头容量的标 准度量单位），对比此前一周为516000TEU。 考虑到中美两国各自的政策目标，在中美双方出牌博 弈之后，未来也不排除重回到谈判桌前的可能。 以美国对中国产品以及含有中国产品的第三国产品 的依赖程度，如此高的关税势必带来本国物价的上涨。 鉴于美国零售 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-04-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口可能出现的变化及应对》 - 2025.04.07 宏观研究 抢出口叠加低基数效应推升出口超预期 核心观点 以美元计价，3 月出口增速保持较高韧性，好于预期和季节性水 平；从国别来看，我国对东盟、欧盟、美国的出口保持韧性是支撑出 口超预期的主要原因。我们理解，虽然 2 月和 3 月美国对我国加征 20%关税落地，但市场基于美国"对等关税"的不确定性，短期仍存在 "抢出口"行为，同时叠加我国出口商品相对价格优势，支撑我国出 口韧性。 站在当前时点，向后看：（1）展望 4 月出口，因所谓的"对等关 税"已经落地，显著超市场预期，全球贸易体系面临重构风险，"抢出 口"或已结束，我国出口或面临较为显著压力，4 月我国出口增速或 回落至-3%左右。（2）年内看，出口有望实现正增长。一是关注美国是 否基于自身经济 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: It's the US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest. Mid - term supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may face short - term consolidation [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton (220), 3720 yuan/ton (260), 3440 yuan/ton (220), and 3220 yuan/ton (220) respectively [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. US soybean export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean meal supply is tight recently, and downstream demand has a slight boost [2] - Reference view: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may fluctuate in a short - term range [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, and in North China and Huanghuai is 2300 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: US tariff hikes increase corn import costs. Domestic supply pressure eases, and downstream demand may rise, but there are still some suppressing factors [3] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will fluctuate in a short - term range [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74430 - 74670, down 555, with a premium of - 30 to + 20 [4] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariff shocks cause overseas market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Copper raw material issues remain, and the market is in a state of game between reality and expectation [4] - Reference view: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70750 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69350 yuan/ton [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium concentrate is expected to decline. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up [5][6] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may fluctuate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, Tangshan's operating rate is 83.13%, social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 207.12 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving. Cost is rising, and inventory is decreasing. The market is driven by short - term macro - policy expectations and shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Treat steel with a long - on - dips strategy as macro - negatives are digested [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is loose, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited space [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 766, and the price of Australian iron ore with 62% Fe is 768 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. US tariff policies suppress the upward space of iron ore prices [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" is weakening. OPEC plans to increase production, but trade wars and geopolitical issues may drag down demand in the second quarter [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the rebound of INE crude oil futures near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: US tariffs affect Chinese tire and automobile exports. Rubber supply is loose globally, and demand may be suppressed [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support near 14000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4820 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise operating rate decreased last week. Demand from downstream enterprises is still mainly for rigid needs. Inventory decreased [12] - Reference view: PVC futures prices may fluctuate at a low level as the macro - sentiment improves slightly [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1448.44 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Soda ash supply is at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and demand is general [13] - Reference view: The soda ash futures market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term after the contract change [13]

Group 1: Company Insights - Aohua Endoscope reported a revenue of 750 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, but a net profit of 21.01 million yuan, down 63.68% year-on-year [3][4] - The company faced challenges due to reduced domestic procurement activities and increased expenses in R&D and marketing, which outpaced revenue growth [4] - Aohua's core product, the AQ-300 4K endoscope system, is gaining acceptance in hospitals, with expectations for revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 892 million, 1.072 billion, and 1.26 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The U.S. has implemented increased tariffs, causing significant fluctuations in global assets, with a 10% minimum baseline tariff affecting various trade partners [7][8] - The domestic macroeconomic sentiment is influenced by overseas developments, with China's foreign exchange reserves reaching 3.24067 trillion USD, a 0.4% increase [8] - The wind power industry is expected to see a demand increase of 34% in 2025, with domestic wind turbine demand projected to reach 124 GW [21][22] - The automotive sector is entering a phase of increased sales and technological advancements, with new models from various manufacturers being launched [16][19] Group 3: Financial Performance - Shengnong Development achieved a revenue of 18.586 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit of 724 million yuan, up 9.03% [12][13] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, with a net profit of 234 million yuan, up 5.77% [25][26] - XJ Electric reported a revenue of 17.1 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.2%, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 11% [29][30] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting vehicle upgrades, with a focus on high-end models and advanced driving technologies [19][20] - New energy and precision bearing markets are anticipated to grow, with XJ Electric and Xinqianglian positioned to capitalize on these trends [21][22][29] - The semiconductor industry is likely to see accelerated domestic production due to tariff pressures, presenting investment opportunities in related sectors [34][36]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened high but closed slightly lower on April 15, with major indices experiencing minor declines [1] - Nvidia's stock fell over 6% after the company reported a quarterly expenditure of approximately $5.5 billion related to exporting H20 graphics processors, following a requirement from the U.S. government for export licenses to certain countries and regions [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, declined by 0.49%, with notable individual stock movements including Alibaba down 1.48%, JD down 1.94%, and NIO up 0.28% [1] Group 2 - The White House announced an investigation into national security risks associated with the U.S. reliance on imported critical minerals and their derivatives [1] - The Canadian federal government announced the removal of certain countermeasures against U.S. imported cars to support domestic automotive manufacturers, contingent on their continued production and investment in Canada [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney previously announced a series of countermeasures, including a 25% tariff on U.S. imported cars not covered by the USMCA, while automotive parts remain unaffected [1]