重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销等非关税壁垒，但上述贸易壁垒并未在 " 对等关税 " 的税率确定中进行过调 查和 ...

A： 4月2日，特朗普宣布对中国等贸易逆差国征收不同的对等关税，对其他贸易伙伴征收10%全面关 税。之后中国强硬加对等关税反制，全球风险资产大幅下跌。4月9日特朗普宣布除对中国维持125% 关税外，其余贸易伙伴的对等关税延期90天执行，仅维持10%全面关税，全球风险资产开始修复跌 幅。 特朗普的反复无常体现了其政策讹诈的本质。 特朗普执政的基本盘在于增加美国财政收入和推动制造 业回流美国，但从所谓"对等关税"的计算中不难看出其团队不仅不尊重基本的经济和国际贸易规律， 而且显然操之过急，企图实现美国经济结构转型的"大跃进"。后续美股和美债市场的暴跌证明了特朗 普政策的不可持续性，重重压力之下特朗普选择暂缓关税，短短几天之内重大国际政策大幅反转，特 朗普通过关税工具进行政策讹诈的意图非常明确。虽然目前中美之间仍然维持125%的关税，但特朗普 后退一步反而打开了中美贸易谈判的空间。 国际形势快速变化的背景下，关键是做好中国自己的事。 在实现经济新旧动能的转换方面中国已经做 了多年的不懈努力和艰难取舍（如主动刺破房地产泡沫），并已取得显著的喜人成果（如培育和发展 新质生产力），使经济中的结构性矛盾大大缓解。鉴于此，在 ...

市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8290 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（-20）、天津 3330 元/吨（-10）、 日照 3280 元/吨（-20）、东莞 298 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The volatility of the USD/CNY exchange rate will intensify in the short term due to trade policy uncertainties. In the medium term, with the Fed's policy shift and the narrowing of the interest rate spread, the RMB has a chance to stabilize periodically [55]. - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy will push up the price level in the US, increasing the short - term upward pressure on inflation. The US economy will face a more severe "stagflation" risk, and the narrative of recession or stagflation may continue [25]. Summary by Directory Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the US dollar, with the call - end volatility significantly higher than the put - end, and the volatility rising significantly. The market's expectation of the future volatility of the USD/CNY exchange rate has increased [5]. - The term structure data of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures and bank forward premiums and discounts, as well as the US - China interest rate spread, are presented, but specific trends are not clearly summarized in the text [8][10][11]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, but the overall willingness to stabilize the exchange rate is lower than in the previous round. The policy counter - cyclical factor shows a continuous upward trend, and the US - China interest rate spread shows an upward trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [16]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 95bp by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts continues to rise. Short - term interest rates are rising, the TGA account balance was 301.6 billion on April 2, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 233.4 billion US dollars [20]. - The US economy has a rising downside risk. Employment data is mixed, with the February non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising; inflation is rebounding; the economy maintains resilience, with retail sales and fiscal spending falling, the manufacturing industry falling in March, and the service industry rebounding [22]. Events - On April 2, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy was implemented, including a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries and personalized higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with large trade deficits with the US. The tariff scale considers value - added tax, trade deficits, "exchange - rate manipulation, and non - tariff barriers". There are exempted goods and countries, and the policy contains a "modification right" [24][25]. - Many countries have taken counter - measures against the US tariffs, including condemnation, negotiation, and counter - tariffs [26]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy is beyond market expectations. From the perspective of tariff rate comparison, most of the top 15 trading partners of the US in 2024 had higher most - favored - nation tariff rates than the US in 2022. From the perspective of trade surplus, countries/regions such as China, the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam have large trade surpluses with the US [27]. - The US may further increase tariffs on China. A review of the previous round of Trump's tariff increases shows that the RMB and A - shares were under pressure, and the RMB depreciated by about 8% at most during the three - round tariff increases. Among commodities, iron ore and non - ferrous metals were most directly affected [33]. 3 - Month Data - The US non - farm payrolls in March exceeded expectations, with consumption - related industries (retail), trade, and the government contributing to the increase. The hourly wage in March increased by 0.25% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year, which may intensify long - term inflation. The impact of the March non - farm payrolls was small, and the market was dominated by tariff concerns in the short term [37]. - In March, the US "rush to export" ended. The US manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (52.7), the service industry PMI was 54.3 (51), and the composite PMI was 53.5 (51.6). The service industry offset the decline in manufacturing. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (47.6), the service industry PMI was 50.4 (50.6), and the composite PMI was 50.4 (50.2) [38]. - China's economic structure is differentiated. From January to February, industrial production, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment maintained high growth rates, while consumption and real - estate investment improved month - on - month, and the decline in real - estate sales narrowed significantly. Import and export growth rates declined, and the credit structure did not improve significantly. The economic sentiment rebounded in March [41]. - In March, China's PMI improved month - on - month but was weaker than the seasonal average year - on - year. Production increased less than new orders. The "rush to export" continued in March, imports decreased by 2% month - on - month, and finished - product inventories decreased. The industry sentiment was transmitted from upstream to downstream [43]. Overall View - The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap between China and the US, a neutral Sino - US interest rate spread, and trade policy uncertainties that are favorable to the US dollar. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate more due to trade policy uncertainties. In the medium term, the RMB may stabilize periodically [55]. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the futures main contract from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [56].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariffs imposed under Trump's "America First" policy significantly impact African economies, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on African Economies - African countries face high tariffs, with Lesotho at 50%, Madagascar at 47%, Mauritius at 40%, and South Africa at 30%, among others [1] - The tariffs threaten the export competitiveness of African economies, especially Namibia, Mozambique, and Eswatini, which are highly export-dependent [2][4] - The tariffs undermine the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which previously allowed certain African countries to export approximately 1,800 products to the U.S. duty-free [2][5] Group 2: Economic Adjustments and Responses - African nations may respond to the tariffs with a mix of retaliation and compromise, given the power asymmetry in U.S.-Africa relations [2][7] - Long-term strategies may include strengthening regional trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying export markets towards China and the EU [2][3][7] - The World Bank predicts that AfCFTA could help lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and increase African income by $450 billion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - South Africa's automotive and agricultural sectors face a 30% tariff, prompting potential strategies to deepen ties with other regions, particularly the EU and China [6] - Countries like Lesotho and Kenya, which heavily depend on AGOA, may experience significant job losses and declines in export revenues due to the loss of duty-free access [5][6] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The uneven tariff impacts may exacerbate economic disparities across Africa, with regions more exposed to U.S. markets likely to struggle more than others [6] - Financial markets may react negatively, increasing borrowing costs for governments with substantial external debt, further straining fiscal stability [4][6]

特朗普"绝不会改变"的宣言还在白宫上空飘荡，暂停"对等关税"90天，只对中国征收125%关税的政策就已经出炉。这种剧烈的转变，不仅普通人没反应过 来，连特朗普的最高贸易代表格里尔，也因为他还在众议院苦口婆心地称赞关税政策，而特朗普在外面已经按下暂停键，遭遇巨大尴尬。 CNN戏谑地评价特朗普"政治痛苦阈值只有一周"，而轰轰烈烈的"对等关税"，对大部分国家来说其实只生效了几个小时。中国虽然面临125%的巨额关税， 但在其他国家"对等关税"暂缓的情况下，其实并不影响中国商品对美国出口。这就是加斯帕里诺说，"白宫投降了"的原因。 ▲格里尔被大肆嘲讽 不过，在美国东部时间4月7日上午10点14分，曾出现"特朗普将暂停对等关税"的传闻，同样引发美股大幅上涨。而白宫反应迅速，仅仅15分钟后就宣布消息 不实，美股转而下跌。当时大家只是觉得，在一连串消息的冲击下美股太敏感，稍有风吹草动就大涨大跌。现在看起来，恐怕是有意为之。 智通财经在9日援引S3数据，称有交易员在过去六天做空标普500，获利高达1590亿美元。这还是只算一个版块，并且没算美股刚刚大涨的情况下。如果在 两次涨跌之前都做好准备，套利数千亿美元恐怕不在话下。 美国 ...

关税博弈狂飙！底层逻辑及行业影响分析 联合资信 研究中心 |王 妍 |王信鑫 |吴 玥 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 摘要 2025 年 4 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策，对进口自所有国家 的商品征收 10%的关税，针对中国征收 34%的进口关税，并取消小额关税豁免。对 此，中国迅速采取包括报复性关税、出口管制等在内的反制措施，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。4 月 8 日，特朗普政府宣布 在 34%的基础之上再次对中国加征 50%的关税。4 月 9 日特朗普表示将对中国关税 征收提升至 125%。 从特朗普政府综合博弈的政策特点来看，结合上一轮中美贸易摩擦的走势，后续 通过中美通过谈判缓和关税摩擦的可能性较高。 特朗普政府"对等关税"政策本质是经济民族主义与地缘战略的混合产物，征收 逻辑的本质是以关税为筹码，试探各国底线，寻求对自身最有利的谈判结果。同时差 异化豁免与选择性施压策略引发全球产业链"重新站队"，将贸易问题与地缘政治绑 定。中国的应对策略既坚守多边主义底线，又通过市场多元化和国际协调构建战略韧 性。当前在冲突持续升级与 ...

一位详细了解工厂情况的前员工说，在切割、准备和组装过程中出现的错误导致多达40%的皮革被浪费。一位资深业内人士表示，在整个行业，皮 革制品的典型废品率一般为20%。 几名 前员工描述了一个高压的工作环境。四名前员工说，为了提高产量，主管通常对掩盖缺陷的方法睁一只眼闭一只眼，在某些情况下还会鼓励 这种做法。 但据路透社最新报道，11名前路易威登员工透露，自从高调开业以来，该工厂面临着一系列限制生产的问题。据三名前路易威登员工和一位资深业 内人士透露，该工厂一直是路易威登全球表现最差的工厂之一，"明显"落后于其他工厂。该消息人士援引了与员工分享的内部排名。 这家工厂的问题，此前从未被报道过，突显了路威酩轩面临的挑战，该公司试图在美国建立生产足 迹，以避免特朗普威胁对欧洲制造的商品征收 关税。 在上周五接受采访时，路易威登的工业总监卢多维奇·波查德（Ludovic Pauchard）表示："产量增长比我们想象的要困难，这是事实。" 三名前员工透露，由于缺乏熟练的皮革工人来生产符合该品牌质量标准的产品，这家位于德克萨斯州的工厂一直处于困境。"他们花了好几年时间 才开始制作Neverfull手袋的简单口袋，"一位熟悉工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of eggs in the United States, particularly in California, due to factors such as tariffs and avian influenza, leading to a potential supply crisis [3][10]. Price Trends - In Los Angeles, the price for 24 eggs at Costco increased from $7.69 to $8.65 in just 18 days, marking an approximate 12% rise [4][6]. - In New York, the price for a dozen eggs surged from around $4-5 in January to $11-12, indicating a significant price increase [8]. Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index for eggs rose by 10.4% in February, with a year-on-year increase of 159%, averaging $5.9 per dozen [8][11]. Wholesale Prices - As of April 8, the wholesale price for large shell eggs in New York was $3.75 per dozen, showing a slight decrease from previous days [9]. - The wholesale price for large white shell eggs in the Midwest decreased to $3.75 per dozen, while California's benchmark price fell to $5.95 per dozen [9]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy is hindering the ability to import eggs, exacerbating the domestic price increase and supply issues [10]. - Experts warn that the tariff policy may lead to further price hikes for eggs and other goods, as the U.S. struggles to source eggs internationally [10]. Import Surge - In February, egg imports surged by 551% compared to the previous year, with a 328% increase in import value, driven by the need to address supply shortages caused by avian influenza [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the engineering machinery industry Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is expected to benefit US domestic engineering machinery companies while intensifying global competition in the industry. Chinese engineering machinery companies have limited exposure to the US market, making the overall risk manageable. The industry faces both short-term pressures and long-term opportunities as it shifts towards high-end and globalized operations, supported by domestic demand stimulation and the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][5][8] Summary by Sections Impact of Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariff" policy includes a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all goods exported to the US, effective April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits or deemed to engage in "unfair trade" [3][4] Export Trends - Chinese engineering machinery exports have been growing, particularly to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with exports to these regions reaching $21.055 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, accounting for 47.2% of total exports. The share of exports to the US has decreased, currently representing about 7%-8% of total exports, with major companies like SANY, Zoomlion, and XCMG having less than 5% exposure to the US market [5][8] Competitive Landscape - US brands such as Caterpillar and John Deere hold a combined market share of 52% in the US market, and the high tariffs are likely to strengthen their market position. European and Japanese companies are also facing similar tariff pressures, which may heighten competition in other global markets [7][8] Strategic Responses - Major Chinese engineering machinery companies are expanding their overseas production capabilities and entering emerging markets to mitigate risks. For instance, SANY has established a factory in North America, while Zoomlion and Hengli Hydraulic have set up operations in Mexico and Brazil to cater to local demand [7][8] Future Outlook - While short-term challenges exist due to increased tariffs leading to a decline in exports to the US, the long-term outlook is positive as the industry is pushed towards higher-end and globalized operations. The focus of competition is expected to shift towards technological innovation and localized service capabilities rather than merely the gains or losses in a single market [8]