Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China, highlighting a decrease due to falling international oil prices, which is expected to lower transportation costs for consumers and businesses [2][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 13, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton, respectively, following a trend of price adjustments that have seen six increases, eight decreases, and six instances of no change this year [2]. - The price reduction translates to a decrease of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 yuan for 0 diesel, resulting in a savings of about 3 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank [2]. Market Context - The article notes that the international oil market has shown a weak trend this year, with more price decreases than increases, leading to current domestic fuel prices being about 0.1 yuan lower per liter compared to the same period last year [3]. - The recent price adjustments come after a period of over three months without any increases since the last price hike on July 1, 2023 [3]. International Oil Price Trends - The article outlines that the international oil prices have been primarily on a downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors and market expectations regarding oil supply and demand [4]. - Recent events, such as the agreement between Israel and Hamas and concerns over U.S. trade policies, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices dropping below 60 USD, marking a decline of over 5% [4]. Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is set for October 27, 2023, with expectations of further price reductions due to OPEC+ increasing production and ongoing concerns about global economic conditions and oil supply [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is geopolitical risk. The initial agreement on the Gaza ceasefire has significantly reduced geopolitical risk, increasing the possibility of mainstream shipping companies resuming Red Sea voyages, which is negative for market sentiment and will also put pressure on freight rates from the supply side in the long term. The approaching time for the US to impose port fees on Chinese ships and the US's announcement of a 100% tariff on China are both negative for the European index futures price from a macro - sentiment perspective. However, Trump's subsequent remarks on social media leave some room for improvement, presenting certain positive factors. In the short term, futures prices, especially far - month futures prices, are more likely to continue to fluctuate slightly downward or return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - The current spot cabin quotes for the European route and the SCFI European route have stopped falling and rebounded, enhancing the short - term valuation of near - month futures prices. However, geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment have certain negative impacts, and the possibility of a rebound from low levels should be guarded against [2]. - Uncertainties remain in the Middle East situation. If the Gaza ceasefire process shows significant setbacks or Red Sea voyages are truly resumed, it will have a relatively significant impact on futures prices. In the first eight months of this year, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market were relatively vague. For the following months, the demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the demand support during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [5]. - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) prices showed a wide - range volatile trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment this week. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average again, indicating a short - term downward expectation. Recently, there has been no significant change in the positions of the main players in the container shipping market, but the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased, indicating that the market sentiment remains relatively bearish [31]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - Geopolitical risk is the core factor affecting the EC price trend. The Gaza ceasefire agreement reduces risk, increasing the possibility of Red Sea resumption and pressuring freight rates. Sino - US trade frictions have both negative and positive impacts on futures prices [1]. - The current situation of European route spot cabin quotes and SCFI European route is positive for near - month futures price valuation, but geopolitical and macro - factors have negative impacts [2]. - Uncertainties in the Middle East and the demand characteristics of the European container shipping market are important factors affecting futures prices [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Traders can try the 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [11][40]. - **Trend Judgment**: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1450 - 1500, and the pressure level is in the range of 1700 - 1750. The overall strategy can be relatively bearish, and short - term intraday trading is recommended due to geopolitical and macro uncertainties. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines in the spot - futures (basis) strategy [11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Cargo Space Management**: For those with full cargo space or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [11]. - **Cost Management**: To prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 4.53% to 1540.00 dollars/FEU, the CICFI decreased by 0.01% to 647.22 points, the SCFI increased by 4.12% to 1160.42 points, the NCFI increased by 11.5% to 818.97 points, the CCFI decreased by 6.68% to 1014.78 points, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99% to 2399.00 points [10]. - The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60% to 1046.50 points, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82% to 876.82 points, the SCFI European route increased by 9.99% to 1068 dollars/TEU, the SCFI US - West route increased by 0.55% to 1468 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 2.81% to 2452 dollars/FEU [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US stock futures rebounded on the evening of October 12. Trump softened his tone on Sino - US relations. CMA CGM announced a price increase for the Asia - to - Nordic route starting from November 1. The SCFI European route stopped falling and rebounded [25]. - **Negative Information**: Maersk may resume Red Sea voyages. China will impose special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. Trump announced a 100% tariff on China and new export controls on key software products on October 10 [26][27][28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's export trade situation [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Flow**: The container shipping index (European route) futures prices showed a wide - range volatile trend. Technically, there is a short - term downward expectation. Market sentiment is relatively bearish as the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The SCFIS European route continued to decline with a slightly narrowing decline. The basis of the main contract EC2510 decreased compared with the previous week. As the delivery month approaches, the basis has fallen to a relatively reasonable range. Affected by the contract change, the basis rate has significantly decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [35]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - month contracts EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 449.9 points, - 216.9 points, and 233.0 points respectively. The decline in each month's contract price was mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - factors, with a greater negative impact on far - month contracts. Traders can try the 10 - 12 contract positive spread arbitrage [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of the year, mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some shipping companies such as ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies still achieved profitability, indicating that the current market is not bad. For the second half of the year, liner companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and silver prices reaching historical highs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On October 13, the domestic futures market saw the Shanghai gold main contract reach a new high of 928.88 yuan per gram, closing up 1.99% [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price also rose, breaking the $4070 per ounce mark [1]. - Since late September, international gold prices have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 3.4% for gold and 4.47% for silver, leading to a gold-silver ratio drop to around 81 [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Holdings - As of September 23, the total gold holdings reported by the U.S. CFTC increased by 12,568 contracts to 528,789 contracts, with non-commercial net positions rising by 339 contracts to 266,749 contracts [3]. - Silver holdings also saw an increase, with total holdings up by 2,851 contracts to 165,805 contracts, and non-commercial net positions rising by 738 contracts to 52,276 contracts [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting economic stability and diminishing the long-term credit appeal of the U.S. dollar and assets, potentially leading global central banks and investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against political risks [3]. - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, while initially bearish for gold prices, is overshadowed by ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other regional issues [4]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The average weekly price for 1 silver ingots was 10,975 yuan per kilogram, up 670 yuan from the previous week [4]. - COMEX silver futures saw a non-commercial long position increase of 695 contracts to 72,318 contracts, while short positions decreased by 43 contracts to 20,042 contracts [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If the U.S. government shutdown persists, it may lead to a lack of clear economic data, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative monetary policy to counteract recession risks [4]. - Despite the recent price increases, potential corrections may occur if budget disagreements in the U.S. are resolved or if Federal Reserve officials issue hawkish statements [5]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong as they are viewed as valuable safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainties [6].

Core Insights - Recent spot gold prices have been rising, with market sentiment indicating a potential breakthrough of historical highs [1] - Factors such as global uncertainty, increased geopolitical risks, and adjustments in major central bank monetary policies have significantly enhanced the appeal of spot gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts note that fluctuations in the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations are providing strong support for spot gold prices [1]

10月13日上午，全球避险情绪升温，伦敦金现货价格再次创造历史，一度升至4060美元/盎司上方。 同花顺数据显示，截至A股午间收盘，在金价的强势带动之下，A股黄金股拉升。西部黄金涨逾6%，赤峰黄金涨逾2%，湖南黄金涨逾1%。 Wind数据显示，10月以来，伦敦金现货价格迅速攀升至4000美元/盎司以上，涨幅约5%。 消息面上，除贸易摩擦持续外，据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普表示，若俄乌冲突无法解决，他可能会向乌克兰提供"战斧"导弹。 瑞银财富管理CIO认为，黄金创纪录的上涨，反映出在经济不确定性和地缘政治变动背景下，投资者对防御性资产的需求显著上升。 从资金层面上来看，各国央行购金和黄金ETF的持续流入成为金价上升的重要支撑。世界黄金协会的数据显示，2025年上半年，各国央行购金总量达415 吨。9月黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）收获历史最高净流入。 黄金的强势表现带动A股黄金概念股整体上涨，西部黄金、赤峰黄金等黄金股逆势走强。 高盛、瑞银等海外投行认为，在全球经济不确定性和地缘政治风险的压力下，黄金作为防御性资产的吸引力持续增强。各国央行购金以及黄金ETF的资金 流入，有望持续支撑金价上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market experienced a significant downturn, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices hitting their lowest levels since spring, primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade friction has led to a sharp market reaction, breaking the previous "habitual immunity" to such risks, resulting in a rapid reassessment of demand expectations [2] - High tariffs are expected to increase costs in multinational manufacturing chains, prompting a recalibration of global economic growth assumptions and leading to reduced forward demand parameters from refiners and traders [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Reduction - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has significantly lowered geopolitical risk premiums that previously supported oil prices, leading traders to reduce long positions [4] - The cessation of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure has further alleviated concerns regarding the security of Russian oil supplies [4] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, maintaining a trend of rising output, with OPEC's crude oil production reaching 27.948 million barrels per day in August, an increase of over 1.23 million barrels per day since April [5] - The U.S. crude oil production remains at a near five-year high, contributing to a global supply surplus, with September's global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.88 million barrels per day [6] - Rising inventories are evident, with U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating a continued trend of oversupply in the fourth quarter [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has increased, the US government shutdown is not over, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is high, which will continue to support the gold price. Silver generally maintains a strong trend, but there are risks of adjustment due to abnormal price - spread structure and potential suppression from Sino - US trade friction on its industrial attributes [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainty persists, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. With the continuation of global central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, London gold spot decreased by 1.6% to $3965.30 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 1.7% to $49.82 per ounce. COMEX gold decreased by 1.7% to $3980.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 1.7% to $47.47 per ounce. The domestic AU2512 decreased by 1.4% to 901.56 yuan per gram, and AG2512 decreased by 0.8% to 11082 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on October 10, 2025, was - 3.46 yuan per gram (up 2.1% from the previous day), and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 62 yuan per kilogram (up 55.0%). The gold and silver price - spread and ratio data also showed corresponding changes [5]. 2. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of September 23, 2025 (weekly data), on October 10 compared with October 9, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37% to 1017.16 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05% to 15443.76026 tons [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 70728 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% to 1169061 kilograms [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 39940670 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% to 522463797 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On October 10, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.10, down 0.08% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Indices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the US dollar index decreased by 0.59% to 98.82, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.22% to 3.52%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.17% to 4.05%. The VIX increased by 31.83% to 21.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% to 6552.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 5.33% to $58.24 per barrel [5]. 5. Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term sharp decline in precious metal prices was due to profit - taking by speculative funds after the cease - fire in the Middle East. Then, the escalation of Sino - US trade friction boosted the precious metal prices again. Gold is expected to be supported by multiple factors, and silver generally maintains a strong trend but faces adjustment risks [6]. - **Long - term**: The long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of US trade policy, weak employment market concerns, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, the US federal government shutdown crisis, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 897.74 yuan/gram, with a change of -13.64 yuan compared to the previous day and 44.84 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 71,242.00, and the open interest was 211,162.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was -117.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of -87.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 450.00 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 605,570.00, and the open interest was 544,232.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,035.50 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 154.70 US dollars compared to the previous day and 44.40 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 273,357.00, and the open interest was 379,094.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.52 US dollars/ounce, with a change of -0.14 US dollars compared to the previous day and 0.65 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 141,909.00, and the open interest was 128,281.00 [1] Important Information - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed down to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder impressed Bessent. Fed Governor Waller is most worried about the employment market and is open to a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] - For the first time in modern US history, the White House "steward" announced that the Trump administration has started permanent layoffs. The release time of the US September CPI report is set for October 24, 9 days later than the interest rate decision [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly establish long positions after price pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 790 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 940 - 1,010 yuan/gram; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 30 - 37 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 57 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,200 - 8,500 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 13,000 - 14,800 yuan/ten grams [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of precious metals, particularly gold, is significantly influenced by the interplay of monetary policy, risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions, especially during escalations in the US-China trade conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Performance - Since 2018, several escalations in the US-China trade conflict have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising in response to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks [3]. - Historical data indicates that when global monetary policy becomes more accommodative, particularly with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it tends to depress the dollar and real interest rates, providing a foundation for rising gold prices [2][4]. - The combination of trade tensions and existing geopolitical risks can significantly enhance the attractiveness of gold, leading to increased capital inflows into the precious metals market [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions show a notable increase in risk and uncertainty, with threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods and ongoing government shutdowns in the US exacerbating trade tensions and economic concerns [5]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, along with a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term [6]. - Silver may face weaker performance compared to gold due to potential suppression of industrial demand amid market uncertainties, despite previous significant price increases and existing tightness in the physical silver market [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The copper market is experiencing a complex situation characterized by "macro shocks and fundamental resilience" [1] - On October 10, global markets faced significant turbulence, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices, with LME copper futures dropping by 3.73% to $10,374 per ton [1] - Domestic copper futures also followed the downward trend, with a notable drop of 6.12% within 48 hours [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since 2025, copper prices have been highly volatile due to structural mismatches in supply and demand, exacerbated by geopolitical disturbances and market sentiment [2] - The global copper market remains in a structurally tight situation, with supply constraints and resilient demand [2] - Recent production guidance cuts from major copper mines, including Teck Resources and Chile's Quebrada Blanca, indicate tightening supply [2][3] Group 3: Domestic Production Trends - In September, China's electrolytic copper production fell by 4.31% month-on-month, primarily due to maintenance and supply constraints [3] - Anticipated maintenance in October is expected to further reduce China's electrolytic copper output to approximately 108.25 million tons [3] - Despite a slight accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventory, the overall tight balance in the market remains unchanged [3] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The evolving geopolitical landscape and trade tensions are reshaping the dynamics of the commodity market, impacting copper and other metals [4] - The current copper market exhibits high volatility, driven by the revaluation of strategic resources and increased supply chain security costs [4] - Key characteristics of the copper market since 2025 include a shift in supply disruptions from short-term to long-term structural issues [4] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - Companies with integrated supply chains are likely to benefit from the current market conditions, while those reliant on external raw materials may face cost pressures [5] - The strategic value of copper is expected to remain strong due to its critical role in energy transition and new productivity developments [5] - The upcoming negotiations for copper concentrate long-term contracts may serve as a catalyst for price increases [6]