| Milli | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★鸟称谈论乌俄第三轮谈判的任何准备工作仍为时过早。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩:呼吁俄乌立即无条件停 火，持续至少30天。俄驻美大使：俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破刷新2012 年以 ...

Group 1: Global Sovereign Debt Outlook - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the global sovereign debt outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" due to escalating global trade wars and extreme policy uncertainty [1] - The global GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, driven by significant adverse global economic shocks [1] - The report highlights a vicious cycle of uncertainty affecting global trade volumes, supply chains, and investment environments, which may create a more complex market environment than the trade tensions of 2018 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Fitch predicts that Brent crude oil prices will decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, putting significant pressure on major oil-exporting countries' economies and finances [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Risks - The reduction of U.S. international aid will expose already vulnerable emerging markets to additional risks [3] - However, the depreciation of the dollar may serve as a "lifeline" for some emerging markets, easing their debt burdens and providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates to stimulate their economies [4] Group 4: Structural Economic Challenges - Global public finances are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, high interest costs, aging populations, weak economic growth, and ongoing social pressures [5] - The median global government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% at the end of 2025, indicating an increasing debt burden [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, and fluctuating U.S. foreign policy adding complexity to the situation [6] Group 6: Rating Outlook - Despite numerous challenges, Fitch's mid-2025 rating outlook remains relatively balanced, with 13 countries receiving positive outlooks, slightly higher than the 10 countries with negative outlooks [7] - A series of rating downgrades since 2020 has created "headroom" for some countries, enhancing their resilience against deteriorating credit conditions [8] - The effectiveness of policy responses will be crucial in determining the direction of ratings, with timely interventions potentially supporting sovereign credit ratings [9]

Core Viewpoint - Honda is preparing to invest in the Japanese chip manufacturer Rapidus to secure a domestic supply of semiconductors needed for next-generation vehicles [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Honda is considering acquiring shares in Rapidus in the second half of the fiscal year ending March 2025, with expected investment amounting to several billion yen [1]. - Existing shareholders, including Toyota, NTT, and Sony Group, have already invested a total of 7.3 billion yen (approximately 50.4 million USD) in Rapidus [1]. - Rapidus is seeking an additional 5 trillion yen in funding before it begins mass production in 2027, with the Japanese government committing 1.72 trillion yen, leaving a funding gap of over 3 trillion yen [2]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Honda plans to develop its own semiconductors for autonomous vehicles while outsourcing production to external foundries [1]. - The collaboration with Rapidus will help stabilize the procurement of next-generation automotive chips [1]. - In 2023, Honda signed a strategic cooperation agreement with TSMC to procure automotive chips, with TSMC set to start mass production of 2nm node chips in the second half of 2025 [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - Partnering with Rapidus allows Honda to mitigate geopolitical risks arising from tensions between Taiwan and mainland China [1].

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025 due to increased defense spending, rising interest costs, demographic trends, sluggish growth, and social pressures, particularly in developed markets [1] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to slightly rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [1] - Geopolitical risks remain high due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, trade tensions, social discontent, and volatility in U.S. foreign policy [1]

整体来看，金价近期受到美元走软、贸易谈判的不确定性、通胀预期的升温以及地缘政治风险的加剧等多重干扰，短期表现或将更加复杂多变。本周将公布 美国通胀方面相关数据，或为金价提供更多线索，交易者重点关注周三及周四公布的CPI及PPI数据。 技术面： 基本面： 周二（6月10日）亚盘时段，现货黄金回吐隔夜反弹空间并维持低位震荡，目前暂交投于3311美元附近徘徊等待更多指引。周一金价震荡反弹0.4%，收报 3325.45美元/盎司附近，金价的这一波上涨不仅受到美元走软的推动，还与中美贸易谈判、全球经济不确定性以及通胀预期升温密切相关。美元指数下跌 0.2%，使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者更具吸引力。而通胀预期是近期金价上涨的另一关键驱动因素。市场普遍预期，周三公布的美国消 费者物价指数(CPI)数据将显示核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，较前值略有回升。 美元走软的原因部分源于市场对中美贸易谈判结果的观望情绪，以及上周五美国就业数据好于预期后市场动能的短暂回落。就业数据的强劲表现缓解了部分 经济衰退的担忧，但并未完全消除市场对美联储未来政策的疑虑。经济疲软、潜在的降息预期以及风险偏好的下降正促使投资者转向黄金。尤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by multiple factors including a weaker dollar, uncertainties in trade negotiations, rising inflation expectations, and heightened geopolitical risks [1][3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold is currently trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having rebounded 0.4% to close at approximately $3325.45 per ounce on Monday [1] - The fluctuations in gold prices are often inversely related to the dollar index, which fell by 0.2% on Monday, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices occurred after briefly hitting a one-week low, driven by increased buying interest due to the dollar's weakness [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The strong performance of U.S. employment data has alleviated some recession concerns but has not fully resolved market uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to 4.474%, while the 30-year yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 4.947% [3] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield indicates a market expectation of an average annual inflation rate of 2.3% over the next decade [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical instability, such as social unrest in the U.S., enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The hardline stance of the Trump administration on trade and immigration may further increase global market uncertainties, prompting more investors to turn to gold [3] - Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions for various maturities could influence market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates, potentially impacting gold prices [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices will be influenced by developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and upcoming U.S. CPI data [4] - A breakthrough in trade talks or lower-than-expected inflation data could exert downward pressure on gold prices [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to come from ongoing global economic uncertainties, central bank gold purchases, and increasing social unrest [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-10 地缘⻛险⽀撑⾦价 尽管美联储降息预期降温短期施压金价，但地缘政治风险及避险需求 支撑金价。 重点资讯： 1）据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 2）白宫经济顾问哈西特(Kevin Hassett)周一表示，美国三位最高贸 易谈判代表正寻求在伦敦握手言和，以达成中美同意的稀土协议。 3）民主党人和共和党人周日针锋相对。此前美国总统特朗普向洛杉 矶部署国民警卫队以应对当地大规模抗议活动。 价格逻辑： 投资者在中贸易谈判前保持谨慎，叠加持续的地缘政治风险，支撑避 险黄金。然而，市场对美联储今年大幅降息的预期降温，可能限制无 息黄金的上行空间。 周五公布的5月非农就业报告显示，新增就业13.9万人（预期13万， 前值修正为14.7万），失业率维持4.2%（符合预期），平均时薪增速 持平于3.9%（好于预期的3.7%）。数据公布后，市场对美联储年内降 息的押注减少，推动美债收益率走高，短期压制金价。但美元未能延 续非农后的涨势，主因特朗普持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold is high due to the ongoing global order reshaping, while short - term uncertainties are numerous [1]. - Silver will have a strong oscillation. With gold's high - level adjustment, there is a potential for silver to make up for the price increase, but it requires the cooperation of multiple forces to continue rising [1]. - Copper will be in a high - level consolidation. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and there is a risk of a high - level decline, but the long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - Zinc will have a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, it will be in a low - level oscillation, and in the long - term, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped [1]. - Lead and tin and aluminum and nickel will face pressure on rebounds. For lead, new production capacity is increasing supply while consumption is weak; for tin, short - term supply is tight but prices are under pressure after a rebound; for aluminum, inventory is accumulating and consumption is entering the off - season; for nickel, cost support is weakening and downstream inventory is accumulating [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be shorted on rebounds. For industrial silicon, there are concerns about oversupply; for lithium carbonate, supply pressure is large and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices oscillated at a high level because US employment data was low but consumption data was positive, and the Chinese central bank continued to buy gold, with no concentrated outbreak of systemic risk factors in the short - term [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and consumption data were mixed. The Chinese central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month. There was a potential for Russia to retaliate against Ukraine. In the short - term, geopolitical variables were large, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remained unchanged, and the bull market was not over [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 765 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can wait for an opportunity to enter, relying on the level of 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and consolidated at a high level [5]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but was expected to decline in June. COMEX copper was draining global copper inventory, and there was a risk of a soft squeeze. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and overseas Russian copper flowed into domestic ports, causing the premium and spot premium to decline [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data and the slight rebound of the US dollar index, it is recommended to take profit on previous copper long positions at high levels. Be vigilant about the risk of a decline. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of [77900, 79200] for Shanghai copper and [9600, 9800] dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc was in a low - level consolidation, oscillating weakly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply was expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee increased in June. The output of refined zinc decreased in May but was expected to increase in June. Downstream demand weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased, affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc will be in a low - level consolidation and oscillate weakly. In the long - term, with increasing supply and weak demand, opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped. Attention should be paid to the range of [22000, 22600] for Shanghai zinc and [2600, 2700] dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina prices declined again [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment was uncertain. The cost decreased in May, and inventory changes showed a mixed trend. The demand side entered the off - season. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply was stable, the operating capacity increased in June, and the inventory accumulated slightly [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas, the macro - environment was uncertain. The increase in the shipment of Philippine nickel ore and the decrease in Indonesian nickel ore prices weakened cost support. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel was still in an oversupply situation, and the social inventory was relatively high. For stainless steel, it entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure increased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 reduced positions for 5 consecutive days and closed slightly higher [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply pressure was still large, and although overseas imports decreased, domestic smelters did not significantly reduce production. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and only the energy storage end provided some support. The production of lithium carbonate recovered quickly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound was questionable [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the range of [60000 - 61500] [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]