Core Viewpoint - The U.S. inflation data met expectations, enhancing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while global stock markets rose [1][2]. Market Performance - The MSCI Global Index rose by 0.2%, reaching a historical high, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased by over 1%. The Nikkei 225 Index hit a new high, and European stocks opened higher, with U.S. indices also showing collective gains [1]. - The Dow Jones increased by 0.38%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.33%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.39% [1]. - European stocks saw significant gains, with the German DAX up over 0.7%, the UK FTSE 100 up 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 up over 0.5% [1][2]. Commodity and Cryptocurrency Movements - Spot gold rose by over 0.3%, while crude oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil dropping over 0.5% to around $63 and Brent oil down over 0.1% to near $66 [2]. - Ethereum experienced a significant increase, rising over 9% within 24 hours, surpassing $4,700, marking its highest level since December 2021 [2][3]. Interest Rate Expectations - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declining by over 3 basis points [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to approximately 95%, up from 80% prior to the inflation data release [1][2]. Individual Stock Movements - AMD shares rose by 3.5%, while Coreweave's stock fell by over 10% despite a doubling of Q2 revenue and an upward revision of annual guidance [2]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by over 2%, with notable gains from companies such as Bilibili (up over 6%), NetEase (up over 6%), Alibaba (up over 3%), and Li Auto (up over 3%) [2].

【美国7月CPI同比增2.7%略低于预期，国债收益率走低】周三，美国国债收益率走低，投资者消化最 新通胀数据，考量关税对美影响。 截至发稿，10年期美债收益率跌逾3个基点至4.255%；2年期跌逾1个 基点至3.711%；30年期跌逾4个基点至4.841%。 1个基点等于0.01%，收益率与价格呈反向变动。 7月通 胀数据低于预期，缓解投资者对关税致物价加速上涨的担忧。交易员认为美联储9月会议降息概率近 96%。 德意志银行分析师称，近几个月有效关税税率波动显著，评估其全面影响更复杂。 他们还表 示，关税对通胀的影响或需一段时间才有明确信号，部分关税8月7日刚实施，未来或有更多领域关税。 通胀报告发布在即，美联储8月21 - 23日将开会，报告或影响货币政策决策。 投资者接下来关注周四的 生产者价格指数，本周还关注周五的7月零售销售数据和消费者信心指数。 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a daily high of $3360 but have not yet broken through the strongest resistance level, indicating potential for short-term pullbacks [1][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, showing signs of easing inflation pressure, which may influence Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][3] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 62% chance of another cut in October [2] Market Analysis - The current volatility curve shows a positive slope, indicating increasing market divergence as prices rise, but the weak upward slope suggests a convergence in expected volatility [3] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the $3380-$3460 range, with a breakout needed to increase trading enthusiasm [3][4] - Key support levels for gold are at $3330 and $3300, while resistance levels are at $3358 and $3367, with a critical dividing line at $3350 [4] Technical Analysis - The strongest resistance level for gold is at $3360, and if this level holds, a subsequent pullback should be monitored [4] - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next few trading days, with fluctuations anticipated within the $3330-$3360 range [4] - The Bollinger Bands indicate that if gold can maintain above $3370, it may reach a high of $3390, while failure to break this level suggests a weak consolidation outlook [4]

今日上证综指创下阶段新高，收盘至3683点，创业板大幅上涨3.62%，两市成交放量至2.17万亿，呈现 放量上涨。港股恒生指数今日同样大幅上涨，涨幅2.58%。 WIND数据显示，申万31个一级行业中有22个行业上涨。其中，通信、有色、电子、医药、电力设备、 军工等高风偏方向涨幅靠前，而银行、煤炭、食品饮料等低估值行业表现回调。全市场5300多只股票中 有2730只下跌，市场结构性行情特征明显。 短期关税带来的美国通胀压力尚不明显，9月美联储降息预期抬升。昨晚公布的美国7月CPI同比2.7%， 低于市场预期2.8%，环比0.2%，符合市场预期；7月核心CPI同比3.1%，略超市场预期3.0%，环比 0.3%，符合市场预期。结构上，7月核心CPI升温主要由医疗、交运等服务通胀推动，对应7月薪资环比 偏强；而核心商品CPI环比持平上月，除了车辆之外的商品分项表现较弱，显示目前关税传导仍然有 限。市场对于未明显超预期的通胀数据（尤其商品通胀没起来），交易9月降息概率提升至93%，但全 年降息预期边际回落至2.386次。美元走弱，10年美债利率走出V型，美股涨，黄金跌。往后看，伴随库 存去化，美国国内厂商或会逐步开始 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. The US announced that the annual CPI rate in July remained flat at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the annual core CPI rate reached 3.1%, a five - month high and higher than expected. After the data release, the market maintained bets on the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Trump urged rate cuts again. Focusing on the upcoming US - Russia leadership talks, market sentiment is facing fluctuations. In the volatile trend of precious metals, patiently wait for callback opportunities to lay out [1]. Other Summaries Statements from Different Figures on Interest Rate Cuts - Trump: Urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates immediately and considered filing a major lawsuit against Powell. Stated that tariffs did not cause inflation or other problems for the country, and consumers did not even pay these tariffs [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Suggested that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Fed nominee Milan: Pleased with the good inflation performance. Whether the nomination can be approved before the September meeting depends on the Senate [2]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin: There may be pressures on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear [2]. - Kansas Fed President Schmid: Tariffs have limited impact on inflation, which is a reason to keep policy unchanged rather than an opportunity to cut interest rates [2]. Expectations for the US - Russia Summit - The White House has downplayed expectations of a peace agreement being reached at the US - Russia presidential summit on Friday and stated that any agreement must involve Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin will be a "listening tour", and Washington cannot predict any specific results. The goal of the meeting is to better understand how to end the conflict after the meeting [2].

Gold Market - The US CPI data for July showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3%, with an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 2.7%, matching the previous value but slightly below market expectations of 2.8% [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 93.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October is 59.9% [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Baillieau believes that while inflation data remains stable and tariff policies have limited impact, gold prices may experience volatility due to the recent US-Russia negotiation influences [2] Oil Market - The API reported an increase in US crude oil inventories by 1.519 million barrels for the week ending August 8, contrary to expectations of a decrease of 0.941 million barrels [4] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day, while the 2025 forecast remains unchanged at 1.29 million barrels per day [4] - The seasonal demand for oil is expected to weaken as summer travel comes to an end, which may further pressure oil prices [4] Dollar Index - In light of moderate inflation data, traders have increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in both September and October [5] - President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, stating "it must happen now," which has put downward pressure on the dollar index [5] - The market is currently trading between 97 and 100, with a focus on further declines in the 96.90-97.40 range [6] Nasdaq Index - The inflation data has heightened market expectations for future rate cuts, leading to a surge in US stocks, with the Nasdaq reaching a new historical high and challenging the 24,000 mark [7] - The market continues to show an upward trend, with prices remaining above the 60/120-day moving averages [7] Copper Market - The price range for copper has expanded from $4.28-$4.46 to $4.28-$4.60, with the overall price maintaining a low-level consolidation [8] - The price is currently trading above $4.46, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [8]

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]

Market Review - International gold prices experienced a rebound on August 12, with an opening price of $3349.37 per ounce, a high of $3359.25, a low of $3331.08, and a closing price of $3349.80 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI adjusted monthly rate was recorded at 0.2%, matching market expectations, while the previous value was 0.3% [2] - The U.S. July core CPI adjusted monthly rate was recorded at 0.3%, also in line with market expectations, with the previous value at 0.2% [2] - The U.S. July unadjusted core CPI annual rate was recorded at 3.1%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, and the previous value was 2.9% [2] - The U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate was recorded at 2.7%, below market expectations of 2.8%, with the previous value also at 2.7% [2] - Concerns have arisen regarding the quality of inflation and employment reports due to budget cuts and staff reductions affecting data collection in certain regions [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Following the July employment report, the threshold for interest rate cuts has changed, with the CPI data not being high enough to disrupt the planned rate cut in September [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September [4] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that tariffs have a limited impact on inflation, suggesting a patient approach to policy changes [4] - There are indications that middle and low-income consumers are feeling more financially strained, which may suppress their spending and mitigate inflationary pressures from tariffs [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump is set to meet with President Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, with no third parties involved in the bilateral summit [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 964.22 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] Market Expectations - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4% [6]

美东时间周四 (7 月 24 日) 美股收盘，陆控 (LU.US) 股价大涨 5.68%，收盘报 3.35 美元，当日成交额 2743.58 万美元。 陆控开盘即高开开走，最高涨至 3.41 美元，此一价格创下了四个月来的新高 —— 此前为 3 月 17 日的 3.379 美元；这也是陆控连续四个交易日上涨，四个交易日累计涨幅 19.6%, 近 20%。 值得注意的是，该公司过去两个交易日成交活跃，两个交易日交易额均突破 2000 万美元。今日 2741.33 万美元的交易额，亦是过去三个月新高。 市场层面，受特朗普称希望鲍威尔降息影响，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌 0.7%，标普 500 指 数涨 0.07%，纳指涨 0.18%。其中，标普 500 指数、纳指续创历史新高。 热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 1.54%。此中，亿咖通科技涨近 18%，亿鹏能源涨约 10%，水滴公司涨约 9%，名创优品涨约 8%，大全新能源涨约 8%。 股价上涨，可能源于新增贷款总额同比增长、资产质量表现稳定等因素影响。 根据此前公告显示，陆控 2025Q2 多项关键数据持续向好。在新增贷款方面，2025 年第二 ...

Inflation Data Overview - In July, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but down from 0.3% in June[3] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and up from 2.9% in June[3] Market Reactions and Expectations - The underwhelming CPI data has led the market to anticipate a rate cut in September, with a positive response in both stock and bond markets[4] - Despite favorable conditions for a rate cut, inflation expectations remain a concern, and the Federal Reserve's stance is expected to be cautious[5] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a 0.9% increase in June, while food prices remained stable at 0%[5] - Core CPI's increase was driven by rising costs in services, particularly in transportation, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.8%[7] Automotive Market Insights - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with new and used car prices rising significantly, driven by consumer demand ahead of the expiration of tax credits for electric vehicles[6] - Approximately 130,000 new electric vehicles were sold in July, marking a 26.4% month-on-month increase, the second-highest monthly sales on record[7] Service Sector Trends - Housing costs are stabilizing, but other core services are experiencing robust price increases, particularly in transportation services, which surged by 4% month-on-month[7] - The super core CPI, excluding housing, reached its highest level of the year, indicating strong consumer demand in various service sectors[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff increases that could lead to a global economic slowdown[8]