Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a ban targeting Huawei's Ascend 910 chip, signaling an intention to cut off China's AI industry's supply chain, which is seen as a direct attack on a critical sector [1][3] - Following the U.S. ban, Taiwan quickly added Huawei and SMIC to its own entity control list, indicating a coordinated effort to suppress China's technological advancements [1][3] - Taiwan's semiconductor industry, while strong, is vulnerable due to its reliance on external supplies, such as lithography machines from the Netherlands and chemical materials from Japan [7][9] Group 2 - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is highlighted, with China exporting over 6,000 tons of rare earths to Taiwan in 2024, essential for various high-tech applications [13][25] - Taiwan's potential role as a "transit point" for rare earths, where it could purchase low-cost materials from China and sell them at a premium to the U.S., raises concerns about its strategic position [23][25] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may force Taiwan to reconsider its alignment with the U.S. if it jeopardizes its own industrial base and economic stability [27][28]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.20」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体下跌，主力合约EC2508收跌10.66%，远月合约收跌6-9%不等，贸易不确定性 为核心因素，加征关税所带来的负面影响仍未改善。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1697.63，较上周回升74.82点， 环比上行4.6%。美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时 间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美联储6月如维持利率不变，并且维持了今年降息两次的预期，2026年预计仅 将降息25个基点，降息步伐略微放缓，且主席鲍威尔表示，联储预计未来几个月将出现"相当高的通胀"。并且美联 储此前公布的"褐皮书"显示，美国经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价 压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。地缘 ...

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...

惠誉评级：亚太地区多家银行业展望因贸易战风险而走弱。 ...

Group 1 - Steve Eisman warns that a failure in tariff negotiations could lead to a global recession, emphasizing that tariffs are the "only real risk" in the current market [1] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that 47% of fund managers view a recession triggered by a trade war as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [1] - Despite improved trade relations between the US and the UK, the EU remains a significant challenge in the trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - Eisman compares the current trade environment to the situation before World War I, suggesting that while no one desires a trade war, it could still occur [2] - The complexity of negotiations with the EU is highlighted, with Eisman describing it as "managing a group of cats" due to the need to balance agendas among 27 member states [2] - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warns that the Trump administration may become overconfident due to previous negotiation progress, potentially leading to unrealistic demands in EU talks [2]

金十数据6月19日讯，爱尔兰央行连续第二个季度下调经济前景，地缘政治不确定性加剧，给这个开放 的小经济体带来压力。根据爱尔兰央行的季度经济公报，修正后的国内需求（MDD）目前预计到2025 年将增长2%，到2026年平均增长2.1%，上个季度的预测分别为2.7%和2.4%。该指标比GDP更准确的衡 量爱尔兰经济增长。预测下修正描绘了一幅新的图景，即美国总统特朗普的贸易战可能对爱尔兰的经济 模式造成极度不利的影响。该国财政严重依赖苹果(AAPL.O)和辉瑞(PFE.N)等美国跨国公司的外国直接 投资，而这些公司受到全球贸易波动的影响。 不确定性加剧 爱尔兰央行再次下调经济预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin opposes trade wars and restrictions, emphasizing the need for open trade relations [1] Group 1 - Russia's stance against trade wars indicates a commitment to maintaining international trade partnerships [1] - The opposition to restrictions suggests a potential for increased collaboration with other nations [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：经济在贸易战中展现出"一定的韧性"。 ...

加拿大央行行长Macklem：经济在贸易战期间表现出一定程度的韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-China trade negotiations revolves around rare earth exports, with China agreeing to approve some non-military rare earth export licenses while maintaining a hardline stance on military-grade exports [2][4] - The US has gradually relaxed some high-tech product export restrictions but remains firm on advanced AI chip exports, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [2][6] - The US is considering extending the tariff suspension agreement that is set to expire on August 10 by another 90 days, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts [2][9] Group 2 - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, producing approximately 70% of global rare earth output and 99% of heavy rare earth refining capacity, which is critical for military applications [4][6] - The US military, particularly companies like Lockheed Martin, heavily relies on samarium for manufacturing F-35 fighter jets, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earths in defense [6][9] - Despite efforts to find alternatives and restart domestic mining, the US still depends on China for processing rare earths, indicating a significant supply chain vulnerability [6][10] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a strategic stalemate, with both sides holding critical resources—China with rare earths and the US with advanced semiconductor technology [10] - China's recent measures include issuing short-term rare earth export licenses to domestic electric vehicle manufacturers and implementing a digital tracking system for rare earth exports to prevent re-exportation [10] - The situation reflects a shift in power dynamics, with the US realizing that its previous strategies to pressure China may no longer be effective, as evidenced by the need to negotiate on rare earth exports [10]