Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to show a slight increase in inflation, with a month-over-month rise of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase from 2.7% to 2.8% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February [1] Inflation Expectations - Various financial institutions have provided forecasts for July CPI, with a median expectation of 0.24% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year for overall CPI, and 0.31% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year for core CPI [2] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is a key focus, with Wells Fargo noting that the data will help assess the extent to which tariff increases have affected consumer wallets [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by weak job growth and inflation data that is not expected to be excessively hot [7] - Goldman Sachs suggests that as long as core CPI does not exceed 0.44% month-over-month, the market will view tariffs as a short-term influence, limiting their impact on rate cut expectations [6] Market Reactions - The stock market is expected to react significantly to the CPI data, with potential volatility reaching 0.70%, the highest since May [11] - If core CPI exceeds 0.40%, the S&P 500 could decline by more than 2% to 2.75%, while lower inflation readings could lead to gains [13] Data Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of CPI data collection, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has reduced its data collection efforts, leading to increased volatility in monthly data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Christopher Waller currently seen as the frontrunner. Analysts suggest that regardless of who is selected, the Fed is likely to adopt a more dovish stance [1][2]. Candidate Overview - The list of candidates for the next Fed chair has expanded from four to around ten, including notable figures such as Christopher Waller, James Bullard, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, Mark Sulzman, and Kevin Warsh. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessenet, is leading the selection process and has expressed a strong impression of Waller after his interview [1][4]. - Waller, who has been a Fed governor since December 2020, is viewed as a suitable candidate due to his willingness to adjust policies based on future economic predictions rather than current data [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Waller's monetary policy stance is considered dovish, having supported a 25 basis point rate cut in July. He advocates for quicker policy easing to stimulate the economy as long as inflation risks are manageable [5][6]. - Other candidates also show support for rate cuts, with Hassett criticizing the Fed for slow rate reductions and Warsh and Bullard shifting from hawkish to dovish positions recently [5][6]. Candidate Profiles - **Christopher Waller (65 years)**: Supports rate cuts and focuses on potential inflation excluding tariff impacts. He is seen as a leading candidate due to his understanding of the Fed's system [6]. - **Kevin Warsh (55 years)**: Previously hawkish, now supports rate cuts and advocates for coordination between the Fed and Treasury on national debt management [6]. - **Kevin Hassett (63 years)**: Critiques the Fed's slow rate cuts and has a close relationship with Trump, favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus [6]. - **Stephen Moore (42 years)**: Known for advocating for tax cuts and deregulation, he supports structural reforms in the Fed [6]. - **James Bullard (64 years)**: Historically a hawk, he has recently indicated a willingness to support rate cuts [6]. - **Mark Sulzman (55 years)**: His recent views are unclear, but he has a background in coordinating economic policies during the Bush administration [6]. Implications of New Appointments - The nomination of Stephen Moore by Trump to fill a vacancy at the Fed could further strengthen the dovish faction within the Fed, although it may not significantly impact recent monetary policy decisions [7][8]. - Analysts believe that Moore's potential influence on the Fed's decision-making will depend on the economic conditions at the time of his confirmation [8].

Group 1 - The State Council has decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to enhance banks' lending capacity and support the real economy, particularly sectors severely impacted by the pandemic and small to medium-sized enterprises [1][2] - The recent RRR cut is seen as a timely and necessary measure to stabilize market expectations and promote counter-cyclical monetary policy, thereby stabilizing the overall economy [1] - Analysts expect the RRR cut to lead to a decrease in financing costs for the real economy, as it will lower banks' funding costs and potentially guide down the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Group 2 - The RRR cut is anticipated to be implemented soon, with April 15 being a potential date, coinciding with the maturity of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2] - There is a possibility of a simultaneous "comprehensive and targeted" RRR cut or a combination of RRR and interest rate cuts, as the domestic interest rate space remains sufficient [2] - The RRR cut does not exclude the possibility of a policy interest rate cut, which could help stabilize the real estate market and further reduce financing costs for the real economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected tightening and imported inflation pressure on China's monetary policy is significant, with potential for further rate cuts and the introduction of new tools to support economic stability and assist enterprises [1] Group 1: Domestic and External Factors - Domestic inflation is expected to remain moderate, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, while the spillover effects of the Fed's rate hikes have peaked [2] - The overall inflation pressure in China is manageable despite structural price increases in commodities and tight supply-demand conditions in some agricultural products [2] - The focus of monetary policy will remain on stabilizing growth and ensuring adequate liquidity to support the real economy [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The impact of the potential interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is diminishing, and a temporary interest rate inversion will not hinder macroeconomic policy [3] - There is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, contingent on economic performance [4] - The likelihood of a decline in the 5-year LPR is higher than that of the 1-year LPR, as the latter does not show strong necessity for a decrease [5] Group 3: Policy Tools and Measures - There is a need for additional policy tools to address uncertainties, with potential for new structural tools to be introduced [6] - Historical precedents suggest that monetary policy tools can extend beyond traditional measures like RRR cuts and interest rate reductions [7] - The People's Bank of China may consider reintroducing tools like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) to provide stable long-term funding for specific sectors [7]

拍摄：邹健波、李水仙 制作：贾稀荃、栾若卉 新华社国内部出品 策划：邹伟 主编：赵晓辉 记者：刘慧、吴雨、张千千 【纠错】 【责任编辑:邱丽芳】 ...

今年以来，美国政府与美联储之间围绕是否应该尽快降息的问题展开博弈，从唇枪舌剑到人事变动，已 从政策分歧升级为关于美国经济治理方向的较量，牵动着全球市场的神经。这场纷争未来走向值得密切 关注。 本届美国政府就职以来，频频向美联储施压，希望迅速推动大幅降息。有分析认为，三重现实压力让本 届美国政府对降息的需求尤为迫切。 首先是财政压力。美国财政部数据显示，联邦政府2024财年债务利息支出约1.1万亿美元。随着国债总 额的不断攀升，利息支出还将进一步增加。8月10日，美国国债总额突破37万亿美元，且增速未见丝毫 放缓。这种局面下，美国政府尤其看重降息对缓解财政负担发挥的作用。 有分析认为，特朗普政府正试图控制数据定义权以制造降息合理性，改组美联储理事会以改变投票格 局。短期看，美国政府推动的人事变动可能影响美联储内部的投票权结构，从而影响9月份降息表决， 为降息打开技术通道。但长期来看，无论是美联储还是美国政府，都无法承受数据公信力受损带来的伤 害。当前黄金价格飙升，已有预测短期内将突破4000美元/盎司，显露出市场对"定制化数据"的警惕。 对于美国政府的频频施压，美联储并不买账。美国有关法律规定总统无权因政策分歧 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - **Steel**: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - **PP**: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Canola Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - **Corn**: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - **Pigs**: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has escalated from policy disagreements to a broader struggle over economic governance, impacting global markets [1] - The U.S. government is under significant pressure to push for interest rate cuts due to rising fiscal burdens, with projected interest payments on federal debt reaching approximately $1.1 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - Political motivations are driving the urgency for rate cuts, as the current administration seeks to stimulate the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1][5] Group 2 - The contradiction in the U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs while advocating for interest rate cuts poses challenges, as high inflation complicates the feasibility of lowering rates [2] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting rates due to persistent inflation, with the core PCE price index rising to 2.8% in June, exceeding expectations [2] - Employment data has shown signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising in July and previous job growth figures being revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [3] Group 3 - Recent personnel changes within the Labor Department and the Federal Reserve may influence the voting dynamics on interest rate decisions, potentially facilitating a rate cut [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as it resists political pressure, maintaining that it cannot compromise its credibility without risking capital flight and rising long-term interest rates [2][4] - The ongoing struggle between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve reflects deeper issues within the U.S. economic governance model, highlighting the unsustainability of a debt-driven growth approach [5]

Group 1 - 91% of fund managers believe US stocks are "too expensive," the highest level since 2001, indicating a potential market bubble [3] - The Nasdaq reached a record high of 21,549 points before a 0.3% drop, suggesting a retreat by bullish investors ahead of the CPI data [3] - The market anticipates a July CPI increase of 2.8% year-on-year, with core CPI potentially rising to 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal conflict, with two board members publicly advocating for immediate interest rate cuts [4] - Current futures market pricing shows an 87% probability of a rate cut in September, but there are warnings that stubborn inflation could prevent this [5] Group 3 - Nvidia and AMD are reportedly paying 15% of their revenue from chip sales to China to the US government for export licenses, which could set a precedent for other companies [6] - Gold prices fell 2.6% in a single day, with potential new tariffs on Swiss gold bars creating uncertainty in the safe-haven asset market [7] Group 4 - Recommendations for long-term positioning include maintaining cash reserves until CPI data is released, and reducing exposure to high-valuation tech stocks if core CPI exceeds 3.1% [8] - Suggested hedging strategies include investing in short-duration US Treasuries and utility stocks to withstand market volatility [9] - There is a focus on domestic alternatives, particularly in the Huawei Ascend supply chain, which has seen significant institutional investment [10]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [1] - Large-cap tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, Facebook down 0.45%, Nvidia down 0.3%, Google down 0.21%, and Microsoft down 0.02% [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla saw an increase of nearly 3%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains [3] - Fannie Mae rose over 15% and Freddie Mac increased by more than 13%, both reaching their highest closing levels since 2008 [3] Sector Performance - Bank stocks showed mixed results, with Morgan Stanley up 0.53%, Bank of America up 0.38%, and JPMorgan up 0.32%. Conversely, Citigroup fell by 0.44%, Goldman Sachs down 0.24%, and Wells Fargo down 0.31% [5] - Gold stocks generally declined, with Harmony Gold, Eldorado Gold, and AngloGold down over 1%, and Coeur Mining down 0.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with individual stocks showing mixed performance. Xpeng Motors rose nearly 6%, Tencent Music up over 2%, while NIO, Bilibili, and Xiaoma Zhixing increased by over 1%. On the downside, WeRide fell over 4%, TAL Education down more than 3%, and Li Auto down nearly 3% [6] Commodity Prices - The FTSE A50 futures index fell by 0.32% to 13,881 points [9] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel (0.13% increase) and Brent crude up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel (0.06% increase) [9] - Gold futures dropped by 2.78% to $3,394.1 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [10] Currency Exchange - The offshore RMB (CNH) against the USD was reported at 7.1965, a decrease of 72 points from the previous Friday's close [11] Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to provide insights into the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [12][13]