晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

北京市内特产店挂着中美国旗（4月，Kyodo） 由在中国开展业务的美国企业组成的中国美国商会日前公布了调查结果。调查向商会的会员 企业询问"如今后6～12个月内对华关税再次提高（至145%等），将如何改变业务模式"。回 答"将生产转移至（中美以外的）其他国家"的占13%…… 由在中国拓展业务的美国企业组成的中国美国商会日前公布了围绕两国贸易摩擦在5月下旬实 施的问卷调查结果。结果显示，即使目前已降至30%的美国对华加征关税再次大幅上调，考 虑将生产从中国转移到美国的企业仍为零。 另一方面，回答"将生产转移回美国"的回答为零。特朗普希望通过关税等一系列措施重振美 国制造业。不过，在中国拓展业务的美国企业目前对生产回归本国持极其慎重态度这一现实 凸显。 在中国设有基地的美国企业并非没有受到对华关税的影响。当询问5月中旬达成协议前的阶段 业务战略所受的影响时，回答"没有影响"的企业仅占21%。44%的企业称"受到某种程度的 影响"，25%表示"受到很大影响"，11%表示"受到极为巨大的影响"。 在江苏苏州生产汽车等的压铸件的企业的经营者表示，"存在客户指定零部件等成本以外的各 种制约因素。生产无法轻易地转移"。无论 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：6 月 10 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约偏强震荡运行，夜盘报收于 78 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration's intervention in the export of ethane to China has led to significant challenges for U.S. ethane producers and exporters, as many applications for export licenses have been denied [1][11] - The U.S. is a major global exporter of ethane, with China being the largest buyer, accounting for 46% of U.S. ethane exports, which amounts to approximately 227,000 barrels per day [9][11] - The restrictions imposed by the Trump administration are seen as a strategic move in the ongoing trade tensions, aiming to leverage China's dependency on ethane to gain negotiating power [7][19] Group 2 - The U.S. ethane industry is facing severe repercussions due to the export restrictions, with major exporters experiencing stock price declines and operational challenges related to storage costs for unsold ethane [13][19] - In response to U.S. actions, China has diversified its import channels, engaging with Middle Eastern countries to secure alternative ethane supplies and investing in domestic ethane extraction technologies [15][17] - Chinese petrochemical companies are adapting their production processes to reduce reliance on ethane, with significant investments made to modify cracking facilities to utilize alternative raw materials [17][19]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 地方政府如何应对关税冲击？ 各省对美贸易依存度如何？ 2024 年我国对美出口总额为 37343 亿元人民币，占出口总额比重为 14.7%。 分区域来看，我国对美出口区域集中度较高：2024 年广东、浙江、江苏分 别对美出口 9490 亿元、6316 亿元、5906 亿元，上海、山东、福建对美出 口均超 2000 亿元，四川、河南均超 1000 亿元。前 8 大对美出口省份占我 国对美出口总额的比重达 85%。 以对美出口总额/出口总额、对美出口总额/GDP 两大指标观察各省对美出 口的依存度：山西、河南、四川、福建区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总 额均大于 18%，对美出口的依存度较高；广东、浙江、江苏、上海等区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总额在 15-16%区间附近，在全国属于中游水平， 但其对美出口体量大，且对美出口总额占 GDP 的比重相对高。 对比 2018 年及 2024 年全国及各省对美出口总额/出口总额数据可见，在 2018 年以来中美贸易摩擦的背景下，我国通过系统性的战略调整，如新兴 市场开拓、扩大国内消费市场、产能转移等应对手 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States have led to significant shifts in trade patterns, particularly in the oil sector, with China halting imports of U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the lowest U.S. crude oil export levels since 2020 [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, initiated by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade deficits and intellectual property concerns [1][3]. - China responded with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on U.S. products, significantly impacting U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3]. - The trade conflict escalated with the U.S. targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, leading to further tariffs on $1.2 trillion and $1.8 trillion worth of Chinese goods [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has increased from $950.2 billion in 2018 to $1,211.75 billion in 2024, indicating that the tariffs have not achieved their intended goal of reducing the trade deficit [7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs have been passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and consumers, leading to increased prices and living costs in the U.S. [7]. - Despite facing some export pressures, China has shown resilience by expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships, maintaining stable economic growth [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The halt in U.S. crude oil imports by China is attributed to the U.S. tariff policies, which have diminished the price advantage of U.S. crude oil for China [8]. - The U.S. shale oil producers are projected to face losses of at least $10 billion due to the absence of the Chinese market, with U.S. crude oil exports dropping to 3.883 million barrels per day, a 4% decrease [8]. - China is actively seeking to diversify its energy imports, with agreements in place with Russia and Qatar to secure alternative oil and gas supplies [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The trade war has disrupted global supply chains, forcing multinational companies to reallocate resources and adjust production strategies, thereby increasing operational costs and risks [10]. - The unilateral actions by the U.S. have undermined the multilateral trade system, leading to slower progress in global trade negotiations and increasing trade disputes among nations [10]. - Some Southeast Asian countries have benefited from the trade war as they become alternative production bases for multinational companies, while those reliant on U.S.-China trade face economic slowdowns [10].

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...

煤焦周度报告 20250609 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 基本面未有明显改善，双焦反弹力度不足 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 盘面低位反弹，空间预计有限；现货三轮提降落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企略有减产，整体供应仍偏高 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪较弱，出口利润小幅增长，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 下游降库，上游累库，总库存小幅增加 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利微增，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周焦煤供应端消息较多，蒙古国上调煤炭资源税的传闻、主产地煤矿事故频发，或引发减产的猜测；加之中美元首通话，贸易摩擦预期降温；焦煤低 位强势反弹，并带动黑色整体反弹。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨2.82%至1350.5，焦煤09合约涨4.99%至778.5。焦炭方面，三轮提降落地，但 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis of Trade Friction - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019, categorizing it into seven phases based on eight major events, highlighting the volatility in the market during these periods [1][9][12] - During the phase from May 29, 2018, to November 30, 2018, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 17% [9][13] - Following a series of negotiations and agreements, the market rebounded significantly from December 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.94% [9][13] Group 2: Domestic Industrial Production - The industrial production index has shown signs of recovery, with specific sectors such as methanol, high furnace production in Tangshan, polyester filament, and soda ash experiencing growth, while Shandong's independent refineries and tire production have declined [17][19] - The subway passenger volume in major cities has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in urban mobility [17][18] Group 3: International Employment Trends - In May, the US non-farm employment figures showed a decline but were still above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 126,000 [29][30] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while wage growth exceeded predictions with an average hourly wage increase of 0.4% [29][30] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with potential for recovery driven by declining interest rates and policy support [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced in advance a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, leading to a loose funding situation. However, the progress of the trade - war negotiation remained unclear, resulting in a slight increase in the bond market and also a small rise in ultra - long bonds. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][3][11][41]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a historically low level. In April, the economy showed resilience, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.1%, down 0.8% from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent phased easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to China's second - quarter economic data. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the probability of a decline in bond yields is greater. However, the current term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond is still low, with limited term spread protection [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30 - year treasury bond analysis. It is also expected that bond yields will likely decline as the policy support effect weakens. But the current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited variety spread protection [3][13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a loose funding situation. With unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP as of June 6, at a low historical level. Economic data in April showed resilience, with deflation risks. With the easing of trade frictions, the short - term focus will be on second - quarter economic data. Bond yields are likely to decline as policy support weakens, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP as of June 6, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, bond yields are likely to decline, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 216,823 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 26 to May 30, 2025), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively small, totaling 1,091 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared with the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds were 710 billion yuan, local government bonds 371 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 11 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds 119 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds 961 billion yuan [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Upcoming Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 306 billion yuan in total, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, with a trading volume of 4,687 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 3,269 billion yuan, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; that of ultra - long local bonds was 1,302 billion yuan, accounting for 49.5% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume and proportion of ultra - long bonds decreased [25]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to the pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation and unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds all changed to different extents [41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, down 1BP from the week before last, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 1BP, and that between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, both at the 2% percentile since 2010 [50]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 119.78 yuan, an increase of 0.31%. The total trading volume was 284,800 lots (a decrease of 124,088 lots), and the open interest was 117,800 lots (an increase of 4,256 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, while the open interest increased slightly [55].