Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous increase in futures and spot last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a driving force [2]. - In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, agricultural demand for urea increases, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down [2]. - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. The export window period is from September to October. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 billion tons. Pay attention to subsequent export dynamics [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8] 2. Urea Output - Comprises charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves charts of production cost, spot production profit, panel production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][27] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Contains charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and their price differences, as well as urea export profit and panel export profit [29][31][35] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Consists of charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [47][48][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [52][53][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logic, and trading strategies of plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) from September 19 to October 28, 2025. The market prices of L and PP fluctuate, affected by factors such as policy, production capacity, inventory, and international events. The trading strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, depending on different market situations and data analysis. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The price of L2601 contract fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price in different regions shows partial increases, decreases, or stable trends. The trading atmosphere in the market is generally cautious, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand [1][4][8]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The price of PP2601 contract also fluctuates, and the PP market price shows large - scale stability with small fluctuations. The impact of futures on the spot market is complex, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious [1][4][8]. Important Information - **Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - **International Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on China, and the reorganization plan of chemical companies have an impact on the market [15][18]. - **Industry Development**: Projects such as the successful commissioning of Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project and the release of the group enterprise reorganization plan of Daicel and Polyplastics have implications for the industry [18][21]. Logic Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as changes in domestic PE and PP production capacity utilization rates, registered warehouse receipts, and net imports affect the market. For example, an increase in production capacity utilization rates may lead to an increase in supply and put pressure on prices [2][5][9]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Indicators such as the manufacturing PMI, the US manufacturing PMI, and the logistics industry prosperity index reflect the demand situation and have an impact on the market [16][26][30]. - **External Factors**: Fluctuations in international oil prices, changes in the global economic policy uncertainty index, and changes in the freight index also affect the market [13][16][42]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, with specific stop - loss points set according to market conditions [2][5][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Most of the time, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, hold or intervene in positions with corresponding stop - loss settings [2][5][9]. - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, sell options with stop - loss settings [2][5][9].

产能利用率小幅波动。br2512合约短线预计在10800-11000区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -125 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10995 | 49618 | -17076 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) ...

Company Overview - Tongling Jieya Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was established in 1999 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of wet wipes, with over 20 years of industry experience [2]. - The company went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on December 3, 2021, and is steadily advancing its fundraising projects [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 565 million yuan and a net profit of 67.9031 million yuan [3]. - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in orders from overseas clients, the realization of business scale effects, and continuous optimization of product structure [3]. Future Business Drivers - Future growth will primarily rely on two engines: deepening cooperation with existing international brand clients and the new market opportunities and localized supply advantages brought by the upcoming U.S. factory [3]. - The company has maintained stable orders from existing clients and is actively expanding its business with international brand clients in other regional markets [3]. Client Relationships and Pricing Mechanism - The company has strong stability in its relationships with major clients, which are predominantly well-known global enterprises [3]. - A pricing adjustment mechanism is in place to respond to fluctuations in raw material prices and exchange rates [3]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed significant core competitive advantages in technology research and development, production processes, quality control, customer resources, and product variety through years of focused development in the wet wipes market [3]. U.S. Factory Development - The U.S. factory is currently under construction and is expected to be operational in 2026, primarily serving the North American market [3]. - Key investment risks associated with the U.S. factory include client audit approvals, potential delays in production timelines, and cultural differences impacting production efficiency [3]. Capacity Utilization and Capital Expenditure - The current capacity utilization rate is maintained at over 80%, with new capacity expected to be constructed within 3 to 6 months [4]. - The company’s dividend policy balances shareholder returns with developmental support, adjusting based on actual operating conditions and future funding needs [4].

Industry Overview - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased to 76.57%, down 0.12% week-on-week and 0.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization was at 74.38%, down 0.34% week-on-week and 1.91% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 81.64%, up 0.38% week-on-week and 1.68% year-on-year [1] - The maintenance loss for PVC production last week was 80,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The current PVC industry inventory stands at 1.4249 million tons, showing a slight decrease from last week. The overall inventory (upstream + social) decreased by 1.47% week-on-week [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted that with maintenance gradually recovering and high absolute inventory levels, the fundamental support is insufficient. However, prices are at relatively low levels, and domestic policy expectations suggest that PVC will mainly experience low-level fluctuations in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that while pressure from manufacturers and society has decreased, the overall situation remains under high pressure. Production has slightly declined due to maintenance, and domestic demand is stable. Export activities in September continued to show positive trends. Recent stability in calcium carbide prices has not significantly supported costs, indicating a continuation of a weak market environment, with PVC likely operating within a bottom range due to potential policy pressures on exports [3]

Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The biotech client segment is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by capital market improvements, technological breakthroughs, and ongoing clinical applications [2] - The Chinese market has seen a year-on-year growth of 21%, significantly faster than the first half of the year, attributed to increased project delivery pace [3] - The overall market demand outlook remains optimistic, with significant contributions from late-stage clinical projects [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company has achieved a strong recovery in overall profitability this year, with effective high-value commercialization projects and cost reduction measures [2] - Expenses have decreased by 13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with further cost reduction potential anticipated [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to continue improving if market demand remains stable and production capacity utilization increases [2] Group 3: Capacity and Production - The main production capacity for small molecule APIs is distributed across several locations, with ongoing improvements in utilization rates in Chongqing and Jiangxi [4] - There are structural differences in capacity utilization, with some facilities operating at saturation while others require optimization [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing existing capacity utilization rather than expanding new capacity [4] Group 4: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company aims to identify key market opportunities amid changing customer demand and supply chain strategies [3] - The cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic (CVRM) sectors are highlighted as areas with significant potential for small molecule demand [3] - Continuous organizational and process reforms are being implemented to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness [4] Group 5: Talent and Recruitment - The overall employee count has seen a stable increase, with some structural adjustments to meet company needs [4] - The talent supply environment is characterized by a need for suitable candidates that align with the company's requirements [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-side crude oil is short-term bullish, and TA valuation drivers are mostly positive. Supply and demand are generally weak and stable, and the technical aspect rebounds from oversold conditions following crude oil [5]. - In terms of operations, reduce and then hold a small amount of previous short positions. The resistance level for the 2601 contract is around 4550 - 4650 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a 0.42 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.83 percentage point decrease year-on-year, at a neutral level compared to the same period. During the week, the increase in production at Yisheng New Materials was higher than the decrease at Yisheng Ningbo. Newly commissioned production capacity this year is 5.7 million tons. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of 3 million tons by Xin Fengming in the fourth quarter [5][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 140,560 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week and a 0.96% increase year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 18,300 tons, a 34.31% increase year-on-year. As domestic self-sufficiency gradually improves, imports are low and can be basically ignored [24]. 3.2 Demand - In September 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9116 million tons, a 0.58% decrease from the previous month and a 7.25% increase year-on-year. Last week, the polyester operating rate was 87.53%, a 0.25 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 0.94 percentage point decrease year-on-year, generally at a neutral level compared to the same period [26]. - Last week, the polyester industry's output was 1.5497 million tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week and a 4.13% increase year-on-year. As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 2.27 percentage point decrease year-on-year. According to Longzhong, the terminal performance is mediocre, downstream purchases are mostly for rigid demand, and the sales performance of polyester filament factories is average [5][29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.8739 million tons, a 16.07% decrease year-on-year. From January to September, the cumulative textile export value was $220 million, a 0.45% decrease year-on-year [47]. 3.3 Inventory - According to Longzhong statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was approximately 3.1413 million tons, a 1.58% decrease from the previous week. The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a 0.01-day decrease from the previous week and a 0.31-day decrease year-on-year. The polyester product line also saw inventory reduction [5][51]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 6.95 days, a 0.4-day decrease from the previous week and a 1.4-day decrease year-on-year [52]. 3.4 Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened slightly week-on-week and was slightly higher year-on-year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable week-on-week and was higher year-on-year. The overall futures inter-month spread showed a slightly contango structure with near-term prices lower and far-term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable week-on-week and was weak year-on-year. The basis weakened slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [16]. 3.5 Valuation - PX prices rebounded, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. The PTA spot processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was the weakest in recent years compared to the same period. The futures contract processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [64][71][75]. - The profits of PTA downstream products showed different trends, with some products' production margins fluctuating [72][76][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, both raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined. The spot market generally had low - price transactions. Under the downward price trend on the spot side, the inventory of trading enterprises decreased. After the price dropped to a relatively low level, as the liquidity of the spot market improved, the active entry of downstream buyers was expected to drive down the spot inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased significantly as most enterprises resumed production as planned after the holiday, but the overall market did not show an obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises were still in a state of flexible production control. It was expected that the operation of enterprise equipment would be stable in the short term. The BR2512 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 71,972 (a decrease of 836). The synthetic rubber 12 - 1 spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,050 tons (unchanged) [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in Shandong were 11,050 yuan/ton, with the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical increasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong were 11,100 yuan/ton and 11,300 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter increasing by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 61.32 US dollars/barrel (an increase of 0.31), and WTI crude oil was 57.24 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 540 US dollars/ton (an increase of 3), the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 780 US dollars/ton, the CFR China price of butadiene was 975 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 25), and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.53 million tons/week (a decrease of 0.01), and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.79% (a decrease of 1.58). The port inventory of butadiene was 30,800 tons [2]. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.28% (a decrease of 0.15). The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 130,400 tons (a decrease of 0.53), the weekly capacity utilization rate was 74.82% (an increase of 8.41), the weekly production profit was - 360 yuan/ton, the weekly social inventory was 32,800 tons (an increase of 500), the manufacturer's inventory was 27,900 tons, and the trader's inventory was 4,860 tons (a decrease of 840) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires were 72.72% (an increase of 17.46) and 64.52% (an increase of 13.65) respectively. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.314 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 6.025 million pieces (an increase of 219,000) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong were 39.95 days (an increase of 0.08) and 45.17 days (a decrease of 0.53) respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07% (a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96% (a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points) [2]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period but an increase of 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - Most butadiene rubber plants that were under maintenance during the holiday restarted, and domestic production increased. Some plants had maintenance plans, while others restarted. Maoming Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical increased their production, and the overall output was expected to increase month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high production and weak demand, with an expected increase in inventory in the future. The fundamentals are difficult to improve, but the valuation is at a relatively low level, and there may be positive macro - level news, so it is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around the previous low of 4644 and the pressure around the 20 - day moving average of 4812 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC is 4719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume is 535,541 lots, down 14,834 lots; the open interest is 1,194,995 lots, up 3,089 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 131,012 lots, up 1,096 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 4850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4613.08 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan. The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 4820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4708.75 yuan/ton, up 1.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 99 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2690 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China is 2530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 549 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; in Southeast Asia is 192 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45,399 million square meters, up 5,597.99 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,485,800,000 square meters, up 5,471.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.74%, down 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.52%, down 0.15 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 15.05%, with the put option up 0.01 percentage points and the call option unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.69%, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 9.38% to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5142 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5432 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3]. c. Outlook - This week, many PVC plants are expected to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down plants is limited, so the capacity utilization rate of PVC is expected to return to a high level. In October, there are few maintenance plants and new production capacity is increasing, resulting in relatively high supply pressure [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and downstream orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines. Due to the high - production and weak - demand situation of PVC, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - The calcium carbide - based process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use caustic soda profits to offset chlorine losses. However, the supply of calcium carbide is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [3].