1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a weekly observation of credit bonds from August 4th to August 8th, 2025. It shows that credit - bond issuance increased significantly on the primary market, while the total trading volume decreased on the secondary market. Industry and regional credit spreads showed mixed trends [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From August 4th to August 8th, 2025, 411 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 437.957 billion yuan, a 71.67% increase compared to the previous period [1][11]. - In terms of issuance scale, 185 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 175.948 billion yuan (a 37.05% increase and accounting for 40.17% of the total); 184 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 119.809 billion yuan (a 35.62% increase and accounting for 27.36% of the total); 42 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 142.2 billion yuan (a 270.31% increase and accounting for 32.47% of the total) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.22 years, with industrial bonds at 2.89 years, urban investment bonds at 3.83 years, and financial bonds at 1.90 years [1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.11%, with industrial bonds at 2.04%, urban investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.78% [2][17]. 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [3][22]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - Industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. For AAA - rated industries, the credit spread of the automobile industry increased the most (2.3BP), while that of the mining industry decreased the most (1.5BP); for AA + - rated industries, the computer industry increased the most (6.5BP), and the non - ferrous metals industry decreased the most (11.8BP); for AA - rated industries, the commercial trade industry increased the most (6.7BP), and the media industry decreased the most (2.8BP) [3][24]. - Coal credit spreads decreased overall, while steel credit spreads showed mixed trends. AAA and AA + - rated coal credit spreads decreased by 0.4BP and 0.3BP respectively; AAA and AA + - rated steel credit spreads increased by 1BP and decreased by 2.1BP respectively [24]. - Urban investment credit spreads of all levels decreased overall, while non - urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The three levels of urban investment credit spreads decreased by 0.5BP, 0.8BP, and 1.5BP respectively; the three levels of non - urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.1BP, 0.6BP, and decreased by 0.6BP respectively [24]. - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, while private enterprise credit spreads decreased overall. The three levels of central state - owned enterprise credit spreads increased by 0.4BP, 1BP, and decreased by 2.3BP respectively; the three levels of local state - owned enterprise credit spreads decreased by 0.2BP, 0.7BP, and 0.9BP respectively; the three levels of private enterprise credit spreads decreased by 0.1BP, 0.1BP, and 6.3BP respectively [25]. - Regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. In terms of spread levels, for AAA - rated regions, the top three were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Liaoning; for AA + - rated regions, the top three were Qinghai, Gansu, and Shaanxi; for AA - rated regions, the top three were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of month - on - month changes, for AAA - rated regions, Yunnan increased the most (0.4BP), and Jilin decreased the most (2BP); for AA + - rated regions, Qinghai increased the most (4.6BP), and Liaoning decreased the most (7BP); for AA - rated regions, Shaanxi increased the most (0.5BP), and Hebei decreased the most (21.8BP) [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1263.376 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous period. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 373.834 billion yuan (a 28.05% decrease and accounting for 29.59% of the total); corporate bonds had a trading volume of 352.34 billion yuan (an 11.18% increase and accounting for 27.89% of the total); medium - term notes had a trading volume of 315.271 billion yuan (a 1.98% decrease and accounting for 24.95% of the total) [4][27]. 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds narrowed slightly. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while that of industrial bonds increased [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity 3.1.1 Credit Bond Issuance - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds in China was 30.3 trillion yuan. From July 1 to July 31, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 1217.195 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.53%, with a total repayment of 879.806 billion yuan and a net financing of 337.389 billion yuan [9]. - Urban investment bonds: As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds was 15.32 trillion yuan. In July 2025, the issuance was 419.407 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.65%, with a net financing of 170.1 million yuan. Jiangsu had the highest issuance, and Qinghai and Liaoning had no issuance. Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hebei had significant issuance increases, while Hunan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui had significant decreases. Guangdong and Shanghai had large net financing, while Jiangsu and Hunan had negative net financing [10][13][15]. - Industrial bonds: As of the end of July 2025, the balance of outstanding industrial bonds was 14.98 trillion yuan. In July 2025, the issuance was 797.789 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%, with a net financing of 3356.88 billion yuan. Public utilities had the highest issuance and net financing [19][23]. 3.1.2 Credit Bond Maturity - Urban investment bonds: From August to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan had large maturity scales [27]. - Industrial bonds: From August to December 2025, public utilities, non - banking finance, transportation, real estate, and building decoration had large maturity scales [31]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads 3.2.1 Credit Bond Trading - Urban investment bonds: In July 2025, the trading volume was 1010.012 billion yuan, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 6.59% [34]. - Industrial bonds: In July 2025, the trading volume was 1699.176 billion yuan, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 11.34% [36]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Spreads - Urban investment bonds: In July 2025, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of all levels narrowed. For AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the average spread was 45bp, narrowing by 4bp; for AA + - rated, it was 55bp, narrowing by 3bp; for AA - rated, it was 69bp, narrowing by 2bp [36]. - Industrial bonds: In July 2025, the credit spreads of industrial bonds of all levels narrowed. For AAA - rated industrial bonds, the average spread was 45bp, narrowing by 4bp; for AA + - rated, it was 67bp, narrowing by 5bp; for AA - rated, it was 70bp, narrowing by 5bp [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core purposes of the new bond VAT policy may include two aspects: unifying the bond market tax system and increasing government tax revenue to relieve fiscal pressure [2][15]. - The move to resume VAT collection on bonds may signal a gradual reduction in tax - incentives for the investment demand side in the bond and capital markets, and the reduction rhythm is affected by the maturity of asset categories and macro - economic and fiscal factors [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond VAT Adjustment Policy Interpretation - Since August 8, 2025, interest income from newly - issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. For new bonds, ordinary self - operating institutions and asset management products will be taxed at 6% and 3% respectively [1][14]. - The policy aims to unify the bond market tax system and increase government revenue. It may also indicate a gradual reduction in tax incentives in the bond and capital markets, with the reduction rhythm affected by asset category maturity and macro - economic and fiscal conditions [2][15]. 3.2 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Credit Bond Market 3.2.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - After interest income from interest - rate bonds loses the VAT exemption advantage, the relative value of credit bonds increases. The spread between self - operating departments' credit bonds and other bonds narrows by about 10BP, and the relative value of credit bonds may increase by 5 - 15BP for self - operating departments and 3 - 10BP for asset management products and public funds [3][20]. - The credit spread of credit bonds compared to government bonds may decline due to the increase in the benchmark rate of newly - issued government bonds. The new policy may attract more funds from local government bonds and financial bonds to credit bonds, and the market sentiment after the policy implementation will affect the timing of credit bond allocation [3][21]. 3.2.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - For public funds, although the VAT rate on bond interest income rises to 3%, their investment advantage in bonds still exists and may attract more funds into the credit bond market, bringing trading volume to sub - categories of credit bonds [6][29]. - For self - operating departments, with the VAT rate rising to 6%, they may increase credit bond allocation through funds, and pay more attention to urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [6][29]. - For other asset management institutions, with the VAT rate rising to 3%, they may invest in public funds or private asset management products and slightly increase the proportion of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6][30]. 3.3 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Bank's Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds Market 3.3.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - In the short - term, due to the tax - exemption advantage of existing bonds, the demand for bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds in the secondary market will increase, and the yields of 5 - year tier - 2 capital bonds (AAA -) and 5 - year perpetual bonds (AAA -) will decline by 11.07BP and 11.44BP respectively. In the long - term, the policy may have little impact on bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds [7][32]. 3.3.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - Public funds still have the motivation to allocate high - liquidity bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and can improve portfolio liquidity through credit bond ETFs [8][35]. - Self - operating departments may increase the allocation of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and strengthen entrusted investment to reduce tax costs [8][35]. - Other asset management institutions may adopt a strategy of "shortening duration + exploring individual bonds" to deal with the tax policy change [8][36].

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5% [2][12] - The expectation for rate cuts in the US has decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July, and the probability of a September cut falling from 90% to about 40% [3][19] - In the Eurozone, the expectation for a rate cut has also cooled, with the probability of a September cut decreasing from 42% to approximately 10% [3][19] - Japan's central bank has maintained its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation expectations being revised upwards [3][15] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted, with reserves shrinking by $57.7 billion since the beginning of the tapering process, and a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July 2025 [4][27] - The liquidity in the non-bank sector is tightening, as indicated by the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR rates, reflecting a significant liquidity squeeze in non-bank institutions [4][30] - The liquidity premium in the US dollar market remains elevated, with the Libor-OIS spread maintaining a high level, indicating that liquidity is still ample despite some tightening [6][40] Credit Risk Premium - Since July 2025, the OAS of US high-yield credit bonds and the CDS prices for high-yield and investment-grade bonds have seen a slight increase, indicating a rise in credit risk premium [9][45] - In contrast, CDS prices for credit bonds in Europe, Japan, and Asia remain low, suggesting a relatively stable credit environment outside the US [9][45]

Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market showed increased trading activity in July, particularly in credit bonds, with a "V-shaped" trend in credit spreads, which first narrowed and then widened, ending the month at a low level for the year [1][4]. Trading Activity - The total transaction amount in the bond secondary market for July reached 413,960.27 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.28% and a month-on-month increase of 9.36% [2]. - In terms of bond types, interest rate bonds had a transaction amount of 256,461.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.38% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88%. Credit bonds had a transaction amount of 86,840.69 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.32% and a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [4]. Credit Bond Characteristics - The transaction structure of credit bonds showed divergence, with industrial bonds experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume by 22.35%, but a decline in quality as the proportion of AAA-rated bonds decreased while AA+ and AA-rated bonds increased. The duration extended towards the 3-5 year medium to long term [4]. - Conversely, city investment bonds saw a slight decrease in transaction volume by 2.40%, with credit quality concentrating towards AAA-rated bonds and durations extending beyond 5 years [4]. Credit Spread Trends - The overall credit spread exhibited a "V-shaped" trend, narrowing initially and then widening, with the month-end spread at 44.99 basis points, which is an increase of 14.54 basis points compared to the same period last year, but a slight decrease of 1.33 basis points from the end of the previous month [4]. Industry Spread Analysis - As of July 31, the median credit spreads by industry showed high spreads in textiles and apparel (153.07 bp), real estate (98.47 bp), and electrical equipment (86.35 bp), while public utilities and transportation had lower spreads (44.89 bp and 46.84 bp respectively) [5]. - Most industries in the industrial bond sector saw a decrease in credit spreads, with upstream energy remaining stable, while the communication sector in midstream manufacturing experienced a slight widening [5]. Future Outlook - The trading activity in credit bonds is expected to continue to rise, with credit spreads likely to remain within a fluctuating range. The implementation of the new VAT policy is expected to maintain the tax burden on industrial and city investment bonds, enhancing their comparative advantages and potentially increasing institutional demand [4][5].

【新朋友】点击标题下方蓝色"用益研究"一键关注 免税稀缺性催生溢价优势：政策明确2025年8月8日前发行的债券（含后续续发部分）继续免征增值税直至到期，这使存量老券 成为免税资产，以10年期国债为例，市场普遍预期相较新券将获得约10-12BP的隐含税收溢价。市场为平衡税后收益，可以通过 两种路径实现新老券收益率"打平"：新券收益率上行或老券收益率下行。短期资金涌入推升老券价格，例如政策发布当日30年 期国债收益率一度下行超1bp。 免税稀缺性影响机构行为：银行自营适用6.34%综合税负，为避税将增配老券；而公募基金因适用3%税率对老券偏好较弱，形 成机构行为分化。此外，银行自营税负上升，而委托公募基金投资可享"利息收入免增值税+分红收益免企业所得税"双豁免后， 通过公募基金通道避税将成为理性选择。 | 投资者类型 | 券种 | | 利息收入税率 | | | 转让价差税率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增值税及附加 | 所得税 | 合计 | 增值税及附加 | 所得税 | 合计 | | 公募基金 | 国债+地方债 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Outlook for the Credit Bond Market from August to October 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Date: August 5, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (within 1 month), credit spreads may still have room to compress, but in the next 1 - 3 months, spread compression faces resistance and potential adjustment risks are greater [4][6][32][70][71] - Credit strategy: moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window [4][6] Group 3: 7 - month Review 3.1 Primary Market - In July 2025, the issuance of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and net supply increased month - on - month. Industrial bond net financing decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and urban investment bond net financing turned positive. Bank perpetual and secondary capital (two - tier) bonds' issuance and net supply increased significantly month - on - month. Secondary capital bond issuance and net financing increased, while perpetual bond issuance and net financing decreased [13][16][32] 3.2 Secondary Market - In July, credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Short - term yields decreased slightly, medium - and long - term yields mostly increased, and long - term yields increased more significantly. Credit spreads generally narrowed, with weak - quality medium - term notes and bank perpetual bonds performing better. In terms of credit spreads, ordinary credit bonds' spreads mostly narrowed, two - tier capital bonds' spreads mostly widened, and bank perpetual bonds' spreads mostly narrowed. The term spreads within 5 years generally widened, especially the 3 - 1 year term spread. In terms of holding - period yields, the capital gains of medium - and long - term credit bonds were negative, and the short - term holding - period yields remained positive [19][23][27][31][32] Group 4: 8 - 10 Month Outlook 4.1 Compression Phases of Credit Spreads - Phase 1 (May 1 - May 23): Overall catch - up of credit bonds under loose liquidity. Driven by the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the expectation of financial disintermediation and deposit transfer, except for some long - term secondary capital bonds, credit bonds generally rose, with yields and credit spreads declining [39][43] - Phase 2 (May 23 - July 18): A scramble for constituent bonds under the expansion of credit bond ETFs, further compressing credit spreads. Driven by continuous loose liquidity and the rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs, medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to catch up, and constituent bonds outperformed non - constituent bonds [48][52][58] 4.2 Characteristics of Credit Bond Market under Recent Adjustments - Credit bond yields had a pulse - type adjustment, but the widening of credit spreads was not obvious. Driven by the rapid rise of commodities and equity assets under the "anti - involution" background, along with tightened liquidity, the bond market had a pulse - type adjustment. The adjustment range of credit bond yields was mostly around 10BP, and the widening of credit spreads was mostly within 5BP. The credit spreads of long - term general credit bonds were even passively narrowing, and the spreads of constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds did not converge [61][65] 4.3 Market Outlook - Short - term (within 1 month): Credit spreads may still have room to compress. Market sentiment eases, redemption pressure eases, and credit bonds still have a positive carry environment and room for carry - trade and leveraging. The VAT recovery policy on interest income of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds may indirectly benefit general credit bonds [4][70] - Next 1 - 3 months: Spread compression faces resistance, and potential adjustment risks are greater. August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market, with the curve possibly becoming steeper. The difficulty of further loosening liquidity is increasing, and the probability of double - cuts (RRR and interest rate cuts) decreases. The incremental funds for credit bonds may be relatively limited, and their sustainability remains to be seen. The current credit spread protection space is thin, and the market trading structure is fragile. Credit bond ETFs may amplify market volatility [4][32][71] Group 5: Credit Strategies - Moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window. For ultra - long - term credit bonds and credit bond ETF constituent bonds, it may be approaching the profit - taking window [4][6] - For financial bonds,建议 reduce the position and duration of two - tier bonds and pay attention to TLAC non - capital bonds with both offensive and defensive attributes [6] - For general credit bonds, be vigilant about constituent bonds and focus on urban investment bonds and inter - bank bonds. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in 1 - 3 - year AA + and above - grade inter - bank bonds and 1 - 3 - year AA/AA(2)/AA - grade urban investment bonds [6] - Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expansion of the Southbound Bond Connect. The expansion may bring allocation opportunities, and the dim - sum bond market is one of the core expansion directions [6]

Group 1 - The overall credit bond market experienced a downward trend last week, with spreads mostly remaining stable or slightly widening, influenced by tax policy changes that had a limited positive effect on credit bonds due to low overall spreads (<5%) [1] - The yield on commercial paper bonds decreased overall last week, leading to a further compression of spreads, indicating limited value for commercial paper bonds at their current spread levels [1] - The yield data for various credit bonds shows that the yields for AAA-rated bonds range from 1.68% for 1-year to 1.97% for 5-year, while AA-rated bonds range from 1.75% for 1-year to 2.15% for 5-year [2] Group 2 - The recent interest tax policy has objectively improved the cost-effectiveness of credit bonds, suggesting that there may still be opportunities in the credit market, although credit spreads remain low [3] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board bond ETF and the investment opportunities in corporate bond ETF (511030) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, while a new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect from August 8, 2025, impacting the bond market significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The new tax policy will impose a value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, with a 6% rate for financial institutions and 3% for public funds [1][3]. - Existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to enjoy tax exemption until maturity, creating a tax advantage for these bonds and potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds by 5-10 basis points [3][4]. - The credit bond market may benefit as the tax burden on interest income remains unchanged, leading to a potential narrowing of credit spreads compared to interest rate bonds [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Implications - Public funds may gain a relative advantage over proprietary accounts due to the new tax structure, as public funds will face a lower VAT rate on interest income compared to proprietary accounts [3][4]. - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to be released quickly, while the attractiveness of these bonds may lead to a decrease in their yields [4][5]. - New bonds may need to increase their coupon rates to compensate for the tax burden, with estimates suggesting a rise of approximately 10-11 basis points for 10-year government bonds to maintain net interest income parity with existing bonds [5].

中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥尔摩举行经 贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收增值税，新 老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信用利差冲高 回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20—30BP的利 差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负债稳定机构的 买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可 关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...