Report Title - "The Divergence of Long - Short Term Spreads - Credit Spread Weekly Report (5/4)" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From April 27th to April 30th, most bond yields declined. For 0.5 - 1Y industrial bonds, commercial bank second - tier capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds, most yields dropped by over 2bp; for 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields decreased by over 1bp; for 2Y industrial bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields declined by over 1bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bond yield rose by over 2bp; and the 3 - 5Y commercial financial bond yield dropped by over 2bp. Regarding credit spreads, the 0.5Y industrial bonds and commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spreads mostly narrowed by over 5bp; the 1Y commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spread narrowed by over 3bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bonds and securities company perpetual bond credit spreads widened by over 3bp; and the 5Y urban investment bonds and industrial bond credit spreads mostly widened by over 2bp [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview Yield and Spread of Each Maturity - Treasury bond yields at 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y were 1.47%, 1.46%, 1.45%, 1.48%, and 1.52% respectively, with weekly changes of - 3.5bp, 0.9bp, - 2.2bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.2bp. Their historical quantiles were 11.9%, 13.2%, 8.7%, 6.2%, and 3.9% respectively. Similar data for other bond types such as national development bonds, local government bonds, etc., are also presented in detail [14] Credit Spread and Its Changes for Each Maturity - The 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y credit spreads of local government bonds were -, 12.01bp, 13.93bp, 14.34bp, and 14.37bp respectively, with weekly changes of -, 0.1bp, 0.2bp, - 1.5bp, and - 2.8bp. Their historical quantiles were -, 44.9%, 43.7%, 45.1%, and 38.6% respectively. Similar data for other bond types are also provided [16] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - In terms of yields, from April 27th to April 30th, most provincial urban investment bond yields declined. For example, the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond yield dropped by about 35bp. In terms of credit spreads, the 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly narrowed; the 2Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly widened; the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads showed differentiation, with the 3 - 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spreads narrowing significantly [7] Industrial Bonds by Industry - From April 27th to April 30th, industrial bond yields generally declined. The 0.5 - 1Y industrial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, the 2 - 3Y industrial bond credit spreads showed differentiation, and the 5Y industrial bond credit spreads generally widened [7] Financial Bonds by Subject - From April 27th to April 30th, financial bond yields generally declined, with the 5Y city commercial bank second - tier capital bond yield dropping by about 55bp. The 0.5 - 1Y financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 2 - 5Y financial bond credit spreads showed differentiation [7] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - Based on the balance average algorithm, from April 27th to April 30th, the 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond could target a return of over 3.2%, and the 5Y Qinghai urban investment bond could target a return of 3.0% or more. The 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns [8] Real Estate Private Enterprise Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the yields of real estate private enterprise bonds at all maturities were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y real estate private enterprise bond yields dropped by over 17bp [8] Financial Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could target a return of 4.7% or more [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and most credit spreads widened. Specifically, the yields of 0.5 - 1Y securities company subordinated bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 1Y industrial bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, and securities company ordinary bonds mostly rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 3Y commercial bank perpetual bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 5Y industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 5Y urban investment bonds mostly rose by more than 4bp. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of 1 - 2Y urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mostly widened by more than 1bp, those of 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and commercial bank secondary capital bonds mostly widened by more than 2bp, and the credit spreads of 5Y commercial financial bonds narrowed by more than 2bp [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - **Yields and Changes by Term**: Various bond yields showed different degrees of increase. For example, the yields of government bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, and various types of corporate bonds all had corresponding upward trends, with different magnitudes of change in different terms. For instance, the 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, while the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly [7][12]. - **Spreads and Changes by Term**: Credit spreads also showed different trends. The credit spreads of most bonds widened, but there were also some exceptions, such as the 5Y commercial financial bond credit spread which narrowed by more than 2bp. Different types of bonds and different terms had different degrees of spread change [2][6][14]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban Investment Bonds by Region**: The yields of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, but the 5Y Shanghai urban investment bond yield decreased by about 11bp. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened, and the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. The performance of AA - rated bonds continued to be differentiated, with high - yield provinces often accompanied by larger credit spreads [7]. - **Industrial Bonds by Industry**: From April 21 to April 25, the yields of industrial bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads generally widened [7]. - **Financial Bonds by Issuer**: The yields of financial bonds generally increased, but the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly, and the credit spread narrowed accordingly. The 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, and the credit spread of financial bonds generally widened [7]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) - **Yields and Spread Differentiation**: From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and credit spreads were differentiated. The 5Y Guizhou bonds could achieve yields of more than 2.9%, and the 5Y Qinghai/Yunnan bonds could achieve yields of 3.1% and above, with the 5Y Guizhou bond spread significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. Except for the obvious differentiation of AA - rated bond yields, there was no significant difference in the yields of the optimal individual bonds of urban investment bonds in provinces with medium - and high implicit ratings. In terms of administrative levels, Guizhou district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 4.3%, and Yunnan district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 3.9%. The yields of real - estate private enterprise bonds at all terms were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y basic chemical industry yields decreased by more than 12bp. The credit spreads of financial bonds were differentiated, and the yields of 0 - 0.5Y/3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could achieve 4.0% and above [8].

Group 1: Corporate Fraud Case - A company was found to have inflated its revenue by 1 billion yuan to meet bond issuance requirements, leading to significant financial losses for investors [1] - The case involved fraudulent activities including the use of falsified documents and accounting practices [1] - The company ultimately faced challenges in repaying 150 million yuan in investment funds due to its inability to service bond principal and interest [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - In March, the bond market in China issued a total of 87,356.6 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds [3] - The issuance included 12,786.3 billion yuan in national bonds, 9,788.0 billion yuan in local government bonds, and 13,335.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds [3] Group 3: Special Government Bonds - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the issuance of 81 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [4] - The initiative aims to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure that funds reach consumers effectively [4] Group 4: Regional Financial Support - Beijing has approved a plan to extend the loan term for working capital loans to private enterprises up to 10 years, enhancing support for small and micro enterprises [4] - The plan includes increased credit support for first-time loans and renewals for small businesses [4] Group 5: Bond Issuance Activities - Several companies successfully completed bond issuances, including Henan Capital Group with 400 million yuan in bonds at a 2.6% interest rate [5] - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan in bonds, with a maximum term of 10 years [6] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes with varying interest rates [7] Group 6: Credit Ratings and Financial Developments - The international long-term issuer rating for Nanyang Investment Group was upgraded from 'BBB+' to 'A-' with a stable outlook [13] - Anhui Communications Control Group Financial Company received approval to establish a financial institution, marking a significant development in state-owned capital management [14] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict a noticeable decline in net supply of credit bonds after May, with a generally favorable market environment for the bond market [17] - The credit spread is expected to remain stable, with short-term credit spreads likely to stay low [17]

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...

信用策略周报 20250427 理财增量买了多少信用？ 2025 年 04 月 27 日 当周聚焦：跨季后的理财规模回暖情况如何？增量理财配置方向如何？信用 利差为何买不下去？ ➢ 信用继续偏弱 当周，信用债收益率跟随利率进入盘整期，但整体表现仍偏弱，信用利差震 荡上行： （1）资金面继续均衡宽松的情况下，叠加配置盘仍有需求，短信用跌幅有 限，信用利差小幅震荡走高； （2）2-3 年期中短端信用收益率及信用利差上行幅度偏大，其中中低等级 下沉城投品种在较高收益保护下表现稍好； （3）4-5 年长端信用收益率上行幅度相对不大，部分中低等级信用利差小 幅收窄； （4）5 年期以上的超长普信继续阴跌且跌幅不浅，买盘力量不强；相较之 下，市场寻求票息且对流动性较为在意的情形下，超长二永表现稍好。 ➢ 跨季后，理财规模增长了多少？ 截至 2025 年 4 月 20 日，全市场理财产品规模合计 30.84 万亿元，较 3 月 底增长了 1.82 万亿元，跨季后的增长规模整体介于 2023 年和 2024 年同期之 间，增长幅度并不算小。 ➢ 理财增配的方向 截至 2025 年 4 月 26 日，理财在二级净买入债券规模基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bond yields have followed the upward trend, and credit spreads have slightly widened again. This week, interest rates have generally fluctuated upward, and credit bond yields have generally followed suit. Except for the AA- credit bonds with 1Y and 5Y tenors, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds have increased, with higher-grade varieties showing a relatively larger increase. This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have generally increased, with the spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms increasing by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms increasing by 1BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds have diverged, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have continued to rise. This week, the spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP [2][18]. - The spreads of secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted slightly upward, with a slightly higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have basically remained flat, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have increased. This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, and those of urban investment AAA3Y and AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased [2][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Credit Bond Yields Follow the Upward Trend, and Credit Spreads Slightly Widen Again - Interest rates have generally fluctuated upward. The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively, while the yield of 1Y bonds has remained basically the same as last week [5]. - Credit bond yields have generally followed the upward trend. The yield of 1Y AA- credit bonds has decreased by 1BP, while the yields of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the yields of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 5Y AAA and AA- credit bonds have increased by 1 - 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA varieties have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 7Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP [5]. - Credit spreads have shown a mixed trend. Except for the slightly decreased spreads of 1Y and 5Y AA- credit bonds, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded. The spreads of 1Y AA- credit bonds have decreased by 1BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the spreads of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the spreads of 5Y AA- varieties have decreased by 2BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 7Y bonds of all grades have increased by 2 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP [5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads have shown a divergent trend. Most rating spreads have slightly decreased, and term spreads have shown different trends among different grades and tenors [5]. II. The Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Increase, with Higher-Grade Varieties Showing a Relatively Larger Increase - Overall, the spreads of urban investment bonds have increased. The spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms have increased by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms have increased by 1BP [9]. - Provincial AAA platform spreads: Most have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Tianjin, Xinjiang, and Shanxi increasing by 4 - 5BP [9]. - AA+ platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 1BP, with Jilin and Guizhou increasing by 8BP, and Yunnan, Heilongjiang, and Shaanxi decreasing by 5BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively [9]. - AA platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 2BP, with Hunan and Liaoning increasing by 3BP, and Shaanxi and Shandong decreasing by 7BP and 3BP respectively [9]. - By administrative level: The spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms have increased by 3BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively. Most provincial platform spreads have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Shanxi increasing by 8BP, and Shaanxi and Tianjin increasing by 5BP; most municipal platform spreads in various regions have increased by 1 - 2BP, with Jilin increasing by 7BP, and the spreads in Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan, and Guizhou decreasing by 1 - 5BP; most district-level platform spreads in various regions have remained flat or increased by 1 - 2BP, with Liaoning increasing by 3BP, Guizhou decreasing by 9BP, and Shaanxi decreasing by 4BP [15]. III. The Spreads of Industrial Bonds Diverge, and the Spreads of Private Real Estate Bonds Continue to Rise - The spreads of industrial bonds have shown a divergent trend. The spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP (Vanke's spreads have decreased by 278BP), and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP (Longfor's spreads have decreased by 27BP, Midea Real Estate and Huafa Co., Ltd.'s spreads have remained flat, and CIFI's spreads have increased by 563BP) [18]. - The spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades have increased by 1 - 2BP; the spreads of AAA-grade chemical bonds have decreased by 5BP, and those of AA+ have decreased by 13BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal have increased by 3BP, those of Jinkong Coal Industry have increased by 2BP, and those of HBIS have increased by 2BP [18]. IV. The Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Slightly Increase, with a Slightly Higher Increase in the 3 - 5Y Tenors - This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. Specifically, the yields of 1Y medium- and high-grade commercial bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the yield of AA-grade secondary capital bonds has increased by 2BP, and the spreads of 1Y secondary perpetual bonds have generally increased by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 5 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 3Y AAA- and AA+-grade perpetual bonds have increased by 4BP, and that of AA has increased by 2BP, with the spreads of 3Y perpetual bonds increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 5Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 4 - 5BP, and the spreads have increased by 1 - 2BP; the yields of 5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 2 - 4BP, and the spreads have increased by 0 - 2BP [27]. V. The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Basically Remain Flat, while the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Increase - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, at the 9.83% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA5Y perpetual bonds have remained the same as last week at 8.72BP, at the 6.53% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds have increased by 0.75BP to 8.99BP, at the 9.68% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 1.19BP to 10.92BP, at the 10.12% quantile [29]. VI. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium- and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015; the credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [36]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same-term China Development Bank bond (calculated by linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [36]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term; the excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of medium-term notes of the same grade and term [37]. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds both select medium-term notes and public corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds; if the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample; industrial and urban investment bonds are both externally subject-rated, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings [38].

Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing structural weakness, with credit bond yields fluctuating alongside interest rates. Mid to long-term credits (3-4 years) are performing relatively well, while ultra-long credits are declining due to strong liquidity demands from institutions [1][12][38] - The buying power for ultra-long credit bonds is weakening, despite similar buying intensity compared to historical data. This is attributed to redemption disturbances leading to selling pressure, which is not sufficiently countered by returning buying power [2][19][24] - The low coupon rates of ultra-long credits (below 2.4%-2.5%) limit capital gain potential, making it difficult to engage in capital gain speculation. The ability to withstand price fluctuations is also low, with a tolerance of only 5 basis points [3][23][25] Group 2 - Short-term credits are actively traded, benefiting from their defensive characteristics and certainty. However, there is a scarcity of selling pressure due to institutions' reluctance to part with their holdings [4][31] - The 3-5 year segment of the credit curve remains steep, presenting opportunities for investors to capture yield through duration extension strategies [5][33] - The overall credit market is expected to compress spreads in the second quarter, supported by demand for wealth management products and allocation forces. Short-term credits will depend on the funding side, while long-term credits will gradually develop [6][35] Group 3 - In the primary market, the issuance of ultra-long bonds has increased, with a total issuance of 4,212 billion yuan and a net financing of 814 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rate for credit bonds is 2.07%, remaining stable compared to the previous week [38][41] - The effective subscription multiple for credit bonds has decreased to 0.90 times, indicating weakened subscription sentiment, particularly in the short-term segment [38][42] - The ultra-long credit bonds issued during the week totaled 303 billion yuan, with some issuers offering coupon rates above 2.8% [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond yields increased slightly, and the credit spreads of medium - and short - term bonds declined slightly. The long - end of interest rates performed better than the short - end this week [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally continued to decline slightly, with the spreads of Guizhou's low - grade varieties slightly rising [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads were relatively stable, while the spreads of private real - estate bonds increased [2][18]. - The yield curve of secondary and perpetual bonds became slightly steeper, with medium - and high - grade bonds performing better, and the spreads of 3Y medium - and high - grade secondary bonds compressed significantly [2][28]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds were basically flat, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds increased [2][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit bond yields increased slightly, and the 3Y spreads compressed most significantly - Interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with the long - end performing better than the short - end. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 2BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively, while those of 7Y and 10Y decreased by 1BP and 2BP respectively [2][5]. - Credit bond yields increased slightly overall. The yields of 1Y AA - grade and above credit bonds increased by 1 - 2BP, and the AA - grade remained the same as last week; the yields of 3Y AA and AA + grade credit bonds increased by 2 - 4BP, and the AAA and AA - varieties remained flat; the yields of 5Y AA + and above grade varieties increased by 0 - 1BP, and the AA and AA - varieties increased by 2 - 4BP; the yields of 7Y all - grade credit bonds decreased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of 10Y all - grade varieties increased by 4BP [2][5]. - In terms of credit spreads, the medium - and short - term spreads declined slightly, while those of long - term varieties increased. The spreads of 1Y AA and above varieties remained the same as last week, and the AA - spread decreased by 1BP; the spreads of 3Y AA - grade varieties remained flat, and the other varieties decreased by 1 - 4BP; the spreads of 5Y AAA and AA + grades decreased by 1 - 2BP, the AA - grade increased by 3BP, and the AA - spread remained the same as last week; the spreads of 7Y all - grade increased by 0 - 1BP; the spreads of 10Y all - grade increased by 6BP [2][5]. 2. Urban investment bond spreads declined slightly, and some weakly - qualified regions rebounded and widened - This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds continued to decline slightly. The credit spreads of externally - rated AAA and AA - grade platforms decreased by 1BP, and the spreads of AA + - grade platforms remained the same as last week [2][9]. - Among provinces, the spreads of most AAA - grade platforms decreased by 0 - 1BP, with Yunnan decreasing by 3BP and Gansu increasing by 2BP; the spreads of most AA + - grade platforms decreased by 0 - 1BP, with Tibet and Shaanxi decreasing by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and Anhui, Beijing, and Heilongjiang increasing by 1 - 2BP; the spreads of most AA - grade platforms decreased by 0 - 2BP, with Shanxi decreasing by 5BP, Gansu decreasing by 15BP, and Guizhou increasing by 5BP [2][9]. - In terms of administrative levels, the credit spreads of provincial platforms decreased by 1BP, and the spreads of prefecture - level and district - county - level platforms remained the same as last week. The spreads of most provincial platforms decreased by 0 - 1BP, with Yunnan decreasing by 3BP; the spreads of most prefecture - level platforms in various regions decreased by 0 - 2BP, with Gansu decreasing by 15BP; the spreads of most district - county - level platforms remained flat or increased by 1BP, with Hebei and Liaoning decreasing by 3BP, Shaanxi decreasing by 4BP, and Guizhou increasing by 8BP [2][9][15]. 3. Industrial bond spreads declined overall, and the spreads of private real - estate bonds increased - Industrial bond spreads were relatively stable, while the spreads of private real - estate bonds increased. This week, the spreads of central - state - owned and local - state - owned real - estate bonds decreased by 0 - 1BP, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds decreased by 69BP. The spreads of private real - estate bonds increased by 14BP overall, with the spread of Longfor decreasing by 6BP, the spreads of Midea Real Estate and Huafa Co., Ltd. remaining flat, and the spread of CIFI increasing by 384BP [2][18]. - The spreads of all - grade coal bonds decreased by 0 - 1BP; the spreads of AAA - grade steel bonds remained flat; the spreads of AAA - grade chemical bonds increased by 1BP, and the AA + spreads decreased by 2BP. The spread of Shaanxi Coal Industry increased by 1BP; the spread of Jinkong Coal Industry decreased by 1BP; the spread of HBIS increased by 2BP [2][18]. 4. The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds showed a long - short differentiation, and most credit spreads declined - This week, the yield curve of secondary and perpetual bonds became slightly steeper, with medium - and high - grade bonds performing better, and the spreads of 3Y medium - and high - grade secondary bonds compressed significantly. Specifically, the yields of 1Y commercial bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 0 - 3BP, the yields of perpetual bonds decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP overall [2][28]. - The yields of 3Y AAA - and AA + - grade secondary capital bonds decreased by 0 - 2BP, the AA yield increased by 1BP, and the spreads of 3Y secondary bonds decreased by 2 - 5BP; the yields of 3Y AAA - and AA + - grade perpetual bonds increased by 1BP, the spreads decreased by 2BP, the AA - grade yield increased by 4BP, and the spread increased by 1BP; the yields of 5Y commercial bank secondary capital bonds increased by 0 - 2BP, the spreads decreased by 0 - 2BP, the yields of perpetual bonds increased by 2BP, and the spreads were basically flat [2][28]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds were basically flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds increased - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds decreased slightly by 0.01BP to 9.20BP, at the 8.80% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA5Y perpetual bonds remained flat at 8.72BP, at the 6.38% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds increased by 1.25BP to 8.24BP, at the 6.02% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.89BP to 9.73BP, at the 7.92% quantile [2][31]. 6. Credit spread database compilation instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and the credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on the data of ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015; the relevant credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D Center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds = the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bond (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38][39]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term; the excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes of the same grade and term [39]. - Sample selection criteria: Both industrial and urban investment bonds select samples of medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds; if the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample; industrial and urban investment bonds are externally - rated by the issuer, while commercial banks use ChinaBond's implied bond ratings [40].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has tightened the issuance of municipal investment bonds, making it more difficult for weaker quality issuers to finance [2][7][8] - The newly implemented guidelines include increased scrutiny on issuers with high proportions of inventory and receivables, as well as those with low EBITDA relative to interest expenses [12][8] - The special treasury bond injection into four major banks is expected to enhance their core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios by approximately 1 percentage point, with the Agricultural Bank of China likely to receive additional support due to its lower capital adequacy [9][10] Group 2 - Credit bond yields have generally declined, with notable compressions in credit spreads across various sectors, particularly in the banking sector, which saw a reduction of 8 basis points [3][4][18] - The report indicates that the credit spreads for municipal investment bonds have also compressed, with no overdue non-standard municipal bonds reported in recent weeks [19][22] - The strategy outlook suggests focusing on short-duration opportunities as credit spreads may widen in the future due to lower supply of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds [6][30]