Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - During the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a fluctuating trend after a decline. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has slightly decreased, and the spot discount has slightly fallen. The social inventory rarely shows a downward trend on Monday, and the future destocking trend is worth looking forward to. The absolute inventory value remains low, which is unlikely to have a negative impact on the price. There is optimism about future consumption. Although there are differences in the US interest - rate cut policy, the large cycle of interest - rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not been reflected yet. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected destocking of social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - In the spot market of alumina, there are sporadic transactions, and the trading activity has declined compared with the previous period. There are few bullish factors in the fundamental aspect. The bauxite price is firm. Domestic mines are facing short - term environmental protection pressure, while the supply of imported mines is starting to increase, and the sentiment towards the price is starting to weaken. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without triggering large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. It is expected that the procurement demand will decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the price of bauxite has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, so the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,330 yuan/ton, and the change of the spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is - 20 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The change of the aluminum spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is 5 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,415 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,525 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 157,390 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 271,763 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots, as counted by SMM, was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, with a change of - 2,225 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,736 yuan/ton, closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change amplitude of - 0.15%. The highest price reached 2,741 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 165,823 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 390,129 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 25, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina; bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [8]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]

然而，市场的主要疑虑在于需求侧。许多观点认为，仅依靠"反内卷"等供给侧改革来约束供给，而没有 相应的需求侧政策配合，价格的回升将是不可持续的。报告认为，尽管专门配合"反内卷"的需求政策可 能不会出台，但这并不意味着总需求没有扩张的支撑。 出口如何填补房地产的巨大缺口 招商证券认为，明年中国经济和资本市场的核心逻辑是"再通胀"，但动力并非来自内部刺激，而是来自 出口对房地产投资下行的强力对冲。 在最近发布的研报中，招商证券张一平团队写道，只要出口保持稳定增长，即使国内消费和投资维持低 位，总需求也不会收缩。结合供给侧的"反内卷"改革，再通胀将是大概率事件，GDP平减指数预计在 年中前后转正。 再通胀：明年市场的核心剧本 报告明确指出，"再通胀"是理解明年中国经济与资本市场的关键。自2023年第二季度以来，中国经济一 直面临价格弱势的困扰。如果明年能够成功扭转这一局面，那么当前股市相对强势、债市相对弱势的资 产表现将继续演绎。 实现这一增长的可能性很高。报告预计，2026年可能出现"中美政策共振"：美国中期选举后，特朗普政 府（假设）可能采取财政货币双宽松政策以提振经济；而中国正值"十五五"规划开局之年，重大项目 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 明年再通胀的需求动力来自于哪儿？ 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 44 期） 频率：每周 中小学生放春秋假就是创造消费场景，拉动居民消费的新尝试。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《静待花开——宏观与大类 资产周报》2025-11-23 2、《俄乌和谈再次启动？—— —国际时政周评》2025-11-23 3、《中小学生春秋假的政策意 义 — 显 微 镜 下 的 中 国 经 济 （2025 年第 43 期）》2025-11- 18 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 再通胀是明年国内经济和资本市场的核心逻辑。如果明年确能结束 2023 年 2 季度以来的价格弱势，那么当前股强债弱的格局将继续演绎。市场对于再 通胀的主要质疑在于，如果没有需求配合，仅靠反内卷在供给侧做文章，价 格回升并不能持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2]. Macro Environment - The overall macro outlook for 2026 remains positive for risk assets, driven by healthy consumer and household balance sheets, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained effects of fiscal stimulus [2]. - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a temporary slowdown in Q4 2023 but is projected to accelerate again in 2024, returning to long-term trend levels, creating a conducive environment for risk assets [2]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The multi-asset team at Morgan Asset Management adopts a diversified approach in stock allocation, favoring large-cap stocks with stable cash flows, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3]. - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4]. Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been increasingly focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since early 2023, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market, with positive macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]. - The investment perspective on the Chinese stock market is medium to long-term (6 to 18 months), emphasizing that it is part of a broader global or Asia-Pacific stock portfolio rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5]. Risk Management - The current high market valuations may lead to increased volatility, making risk management and volatility control equally important as pursuing returns [5]. - Despite high valuations, the low leverage and default rates of domestic companies, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Macro Environment - The global consumer and household balance sheets, particularly in the U.S., are generally healthy, providing a stable foundation for the economy [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is becoming clearer, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the near future, which is beneficial for risk assets [2] - Fiscal stimulus effects from relevant legislation are expected to continue into next year, providing further economic support [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic view on corporate earnings, particularly driven by the AI wave, which is expected to stabilize cash flows and promote earnings growth [2] - Valuation should be analyzed in conjunction with corporate earnings prospects, rather than in isolation [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy includes a slightly positive outlook on equities, with a focus on diversification and balance to capture opportunities from themes like AI, re-inflation, and domestic demand [1][3] - In the U.S. equity market, the team prefers large-cap stocks with stable cash flows and high asset quality, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3] - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as interesting markets due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4] Group 4: Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since the beginning of the year, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market [4][5] - The long-term outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with an investment horizon of 6 to 18 months, rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5] Group 5: Risk Management - The current market valuation is relatively high, leading to increased market volatility, making risk control and volatility management equally important as pursuing returns [5] - Despite high valuations, the low corporate leverage and default rates, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes diversification across regions and themes to smooth investment returns [5]

Core Insights - The market index is experiencing continued fluctuations at relatively high levels, with investors focusing on fundamental improvements and economic conditions following the third-quarter reports [1] - The technology sector is undergoing a structural correction, with market trends expanding towards upstream resource industries [1] - Recent CPI and PPI data for October have shown a rebound, influenced by low base effects and positive impacts from "anti-involution" measures [1] - The narrative of "re-inflation" is expected to alleviate pressure from high valuations, as price levels align with corporate profits and inventory cycles [1] - The upcoming release of monetary credit and real economy data is anticipated, with preliminary October PMI and export figures indicating a marginal economic slowdown [1] - Expectations for policy easing ahead of the December Political Bureau meeting are likely to enhance market risk appetite [1] - Current market disturbances are primarily driven by concerns over excessive AI capital expenditures overseas, though overall risks remain localized rather than systemic [1] - The market is likely to continue a pattern of oscillation and gradual upward movement [1]