Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a stock index daily report dated April 25, 2025, written by Wang Mengying and Liao Chenyue [3] - The market showed a pattern of mixed index performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Shenzhen Component Index up, and increased trading volume [4][9] - The key information includes the release of the 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List and the Politburo meeting on April 25 [5] Group 2: Core View - The Politburo meeting's tone met market expectations but lacked substantial incremental policy stimulus, leading to a weakening of the stock index after the release of the meeting content [6] - The core of the domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. A-shares are less sensitive to tariff policies, and domestic policies are likely to act according to tariff negotiations and economic data. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [6] Group 3: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 4: Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IC, and IM rose, while IH fell. IF had reduced trading volume, IH had increased trading volume, and IC and IM also had increased trading volume [4][8] - The trading volume of IF was 82,261 lots, IH was 44,094 lots, IC was 80,942 lots, and IM was 226,082 lots [8] - The positions of IF decreased by 1,275 lots, IH increased by 1,992 lots, IC increased by 1,475 lots, and IM increased by 6,288 lots [8] Group 5: Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.39%, and the ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.20 [9] - The total trading volume of the two markets was 111.3567 billion yuan, with an increase of 454.8 million yuan compared to the previous day [9]

每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...