Group 1 - Technology stocks experienced a broad increase, with significant gains in semiconductor, industrial gas, CPO, liquid cooling, and state-owned cloud concept stocks [1] - As of July, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw 1.9636 million new A-share accounts opened, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.5% and a month-on-month increase of 19.3%, indicating heightened market activity [1] - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching a ten-year high, reflecting strong trading sentiment in the market [1] Group 2 - On August 13, the A-share market index continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3688.63 points, the highest since September 27, 2024 [2] - The A-share trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, marking the first time in 113 trading days that the market volume has crossed this threshold since February 27 [2] - All three major indices saw increases, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by more than 1.6% [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has reached new highs this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index peaking at 3688.09 points, surpassing the previous high of 3674.4 points from October 8, 2024, and approaching the high of 3708.94 points from December 13, 2021 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.81% during the morning session, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 118.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors driving the market include securities, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and computing power, with the securities sector leading the gains [1][2] - Major stocks in the computing power sector, such as New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Industrial Fulian, and Shenghong Technology, reached historical highs, particularly in the liquid cooling server and optical module segments [3] - The securities sector saw significant increases, with stocks like Great Wall Securities and Guosheng Financial Holdings experiencing substantial gains [3][4] Securities Sector Insights - The securities sector index rose by 2.70%, with notable performers including Great Wall Securities, which increased by 10.06%, and Guosheng Financial Holdings, which rose by 9.98% [4][5] - Analysts from Zhongjin Company suggest that the current market conditions, characterized by increased trading volume and positive index movements, may enhance the profitability expectations and valuations of brokerage firms [5] - The long-term outlook for the securities industry is optimistic, with expectations of improved return on equity (ROE) and market share for leading firms as supply-side reforms progress [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent market rally is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and positive policy expectations, with improved investor sentiment driven by external factors [7] - Analysts from Dongwu Securities note that the current market dynamics are characterized by strong liquidity, with various investor groups actively participating, contrasting with the market conditions of 2015 [8] - Future market performance is expected to be influenced by the pace of capital flow into the market and the global liquidity environment, with a gradual transition to an earnings-driven phase anticipated [12]

上证指数、深证成指、创业板指盘中集体创今年以来新高，成为市场的热议话题。其中，上证指数盘中最高涨至3688.09点，突破了2024年10月8日的盘中 高点3674.4点，逼近2021年12月13日的盘中高点3708.94点。 盘面上，证券、创新药、军工、算力四大板块联手发力，其中，证券板块领涨，板块内个股上午全部上涨。 上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.56%，深证成指上涨1.47%，创业板指上涨2.81%。市场成交额约为1.33万亿元，较上一交易日上午增加1181亿元。 算力、证券等板块发力 今天上午，算力产业链继续上涨，四只行业大市值的龙头股新易盛（300502）、中际旭创（300308）、工业富联（601138）、胜宏科技（300476）盘中股 价齐创历史新高，液冷服务器、光模块板块领涨。 证券板块大涨，长城证券（002939）、国盛金控（002670）等个股大涨。 今天上午，A股冲上热搜！ | 东吴证券 | 10.39 | 8.00% | 516亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 融 601555 | | | | | 中银证券 | 16.42 | 7.04% | 456亿 | | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened strong on August 13, breaking the previous year's high of 3674.40 points, reaching a new high since December 2021 at 3680.47 points [1][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose over 1%, while the ChiNext Index increased by more than 2% [3] Market Sentiment and Drivers - Guojin Securities noted that the bullish market atmosphere in July was driven by a combination of loose liquidity and positive policy expectations, with retail investors being the core driving force [4] - Foreign capital showed signs of recovery, while institutional fund flows were mixed, and the support from state-owned funds weakened [4] - Huaxi Securities emphasized that the current upward trend in the A-share market is supported by various sources of incremental funds, including insurance, pension funds, public and private equity funds, and retail investor participation [4] Economic Indicators - The M1-M2 year-on-year growth rate gap has been narrowing, indicating an increase in the activation of funds and a marginal recovery in consumer and investment willingness among residents [4] - The recent margin trading balance has reached a ten-year high, reflecting a continuous rise in risk appetite among individual investors [4] Sector Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be a focal point, with technology growth remaining a key policy theme for an extended period [4] - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that major indices are performing healthily, with a reasonable relationship between volume and price, and maintained an optimistic outlook due to improving domestic economic expectations and ongoing international liquidity easing [5] - Attention is recommended on sectors such as photovoltaic and military industries, as well as precious metals that may benefit from international liquidity conditions [5]

机构指出，市场的火热是流动性宽松与政策预期共振的结果，情绪改善来自外部环境的积极变化。 8月13日，沪指开盘后迅速走高，早盘一举突破去年"9.24"行情的高点3674.40点，创2021年12月以来新高。 | 全A | 涨 2038 | 平 263 | 跌 3117 A股成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | | ح | 000001 上证指数 | 3678.01 | 12.09 0.33% | | 2 | 399001 深证成指 | 11469.09 | 117.45 1.03% | | B | 899050 北证50 | 1464.76 | 15.13 1.04% | | ব | 881001 万得全A | 5775.33 | 32.27 0.56% | | 5 | 000688 科创20 | 1073.41 | 3.60 0.34% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2463.64 | 54.24 2.25% | | 7 | 000300 泊深300 | 4168.93 | 25.11 0.61% | 国金证券指出，7月A股 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, soda ash, float glass, polyolefins, cotton [2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Rubber [1][2][10] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Stock index, rubber [1][10] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, methanol [1][4][5][6][8][10] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: With the adjustment of market policy expectations, the stock index has corrected recently. The market lacks a trading mainline and returns to the rotation of hot - spot sectors, with a slight decline in capital volume. However, the domestic economy shows resilience, the logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of long - term capital support. The short - term disturbance causes shock and consolidation, and the downside risk of the stock index is relatively controllable [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the expectation of domestic policy intensification continues but weakens. The central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity, and the market demand for old bonds has increased, supporting the price. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was also significantly revised down. Market concerns about the US economy have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged due to the tight supply at the mine end, but in the short term, the dollar index fluctuates sharply, demand expectations are cautious, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term and mid - term expectations of alumina still have large differences, and market fluctuations may continue. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear, and the mid - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel remain weak, and the price has returned to the low - level range. It lacks the momentum to break through downward and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has tightened slightly. Affected by policies at the lithium resource end, the release of salt - lake production capacity has been further blocked, and the mica material production has also declined. The overall inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The anti - involution expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the implementation of orders and policy rhythm. The short - term price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon [6]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Although the fundamentals of steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) and iron ore face marginal pressure, the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, prices are expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment of coking coal has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Coke's fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, and the futures trend has shown signs of stabilization [8]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Soda ash has a large supply pressure, and glass has relatively better fundamentals than soda ash in the off - season. In the long term, it depends on the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the float glass industry. The strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. - **Methanol**: In early August, methanol prices are supported, but in the second half of the month, as supply rises, prices are expected to fall again [8]. - **Polyolefins**: In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. - **Cotton**: The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. - **Rubber**: The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Last week, the A - share market rose first and then fell, with a decline in trading volume on Friday. The communication, pharmaceutical, and media sectors led the gains, while the non - ferrous metals, coal, and comprehensive finance sectors significantly declined. The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, with IM relatively firm but the discount deepening [1]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bond futures fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity. The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored, and the market demand for old bonds has increased [1]. Precious Metals - The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly low, and the data of the previous two months was revised down, increasing market concerns about the US economy and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The tariff on US copper was much lower than expected, and the premium of COMEX - LME copper quickly converged. The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged, but short - term price pressure has increased [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The price center of alumina has shifted downwards, and Shanghai aluminum has stabilized and fluctuated. The production and operating rate of alumina have continued to rise, and the market expects medium - term supply to be in excess, but the spot circulation is still relatively tight. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore has increased seasonally, and the refining capacity is in excess. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures of lithium carbonate have weakened, and the production has declined slightly. The total inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased slightly. The price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production plans of manufacturers in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai in August [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals also face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic remains valid. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to follow the fluctuation of steel products. The long - term drivers are the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the domestic steel industry and the release of overseas new mineral production capacity [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether mines will stop production or limit production due to inspections [8]. - **Coke**: The cost of coking coal has risen faster than the price of coke products, and the coking profit has not been repaired. The downstream demand is still supported, and the fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, with the futures trend showing signs of stabilization [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The daily production has increased, the speculative demand has cooled down, and the warehouse has been passively restocked. The 09 contract short - position is recommended to be held, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Float Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals are relatively better than soda ash in the off - season, but the downstream order has not improved. The short - position is recommended to be held lightly, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. Methanol - In July, the methanol production was flat compared with June. In August, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fall again in the second half of the month [8]. Polyolefins - In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. Cotton - The supply of cotton has problems with the circulation of some warehouse receipts, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. Rubber - The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone has been revealed, and expectations have been revised. The bond yield's阶段性 top is clear, with the 10 - year Treasury bond's mid - term top forming around 1.75% [3][10][12]. - Tax policy changes have a "one - time" impact on the nominal interest rate center. The expected tax burden spread is around 5BP, and it may affect the selection of the cheapest to deliver bond in far - month Treasury bond futures contracts [4][14]. - It is necessary to re - define the interest rate's fluctuation center. The 1.75% mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be challenged but remains relatively reliable, and the 1.65% fluctuation center is still valid. There is a possibility of opening up downward interest rate space in the second half of the year [5][15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Redefine the Interest Rate Center? - **Policy Expectations and Bond Yield Top** - The prediction of policy deployment is mostly fulfilled. The demand - side pulling policy pattern remains unchanged, and there is no unexpected urban renewal policy. The "anti - involution" policy exists but with lower - than - expected progress and attention [3][10][11]. - The "anti - involution" policy has long - term impacts on price and interest rate pricing, but the results are not linearly the same as historical trends [11]. - The demand - side pulling policy maintains its pattern, and the pricing difference between commodities and bonds regarding demand - pulling policies should end with commodity pricing correction [11]. - The monetary policy's task of "lowering social comprehensive financing costs" persists. Liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in Q3, and a new round of policy interest rate cuts and liquidity easing is in the making [11]. - From the perspective of policy expectations, the mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond around 1.75% has formed [3][12][16]. - **Impact of Tax Policy Changes** - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax. The actual tax burden for self - operated financial institutions is 6.34%, and for asset management institutions is 3.26% [4][13]. - The theoretical tax burden spread for long - duration bonds is 5 - 12BP, but it is expected to be around 5BP considering previous factors [4][13][14]. - Near - month Treasury bond futures contracts are less affected, while far - month contracts may see an impact on the selection of the cheapest to deliver bond, and tax burden differences can be considered in determining conversion factors [4][14]. - **Redefining the Interest Rate Fluctuation Center** - The interest rate increase since early July is driven by expectations of "anti - involution" and demand - side policies, with risk preference playing a role in asset re - pricing [15]. - Given the "high - first - then - low" trend of the fundamentals throughout the year, the 1.75% mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be challenged but is still relatively reliable. The 1.65% fluctuation center is still valid. There is potential for interest rates to decline in the second half of the year [5][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [2]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [2]. - In the short term, the market will experience volatile consolidation, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trend Review - Futures market: This week, the main RB2510 rebar contract retraced, closing at 3,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 89 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.816 million lots, a decrease of 90,000 lots. The main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract slightly retraced, closing at 33,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.4339 million lots, a decrease of 73,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved lower. As of July 31, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved lower. As of July 31, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,370 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main RB2510 rebar contract compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 165 yuan/ton, a change of +91 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 40 yuan/ton, a change of +57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the RB2601 - RB2510 spread was 56 yuan/ton, a change of +13 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - HC2510 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the HC2510 - RB2510 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a change of +34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 136 yuan/ton, a change of +17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 2.18 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from last week but an increase of 40,900 tons compared with last year [20]. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 867,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 450 tons. The increase was mainly in cold - and hot - rolled coils, while the output of other varieties decreased to varying degrees [20]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [20]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the construction of a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating good prospects for future infrastructure steel demand. - On the 31st, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations ended, and both sides agreed to extend the tariff truce period originally due to expire on August 12 by 90 days. The tariffs on China remained the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the path for the implementation of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time due to the arrival of the seasonal off - season for building materials [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 942,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,900 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,520 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.35189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,900 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [36]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [47]. - With the recovery of profits, electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to increase production and resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. However, due to poor steel sales, the overall recovery amplitude narrowed. As of July 30, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country increased by 2.19% to 74.21%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.56% to 57.05%, both reaching an eight - week high [47]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - Affected by domestic policies this week, the prices of major raw materials fluctuated significantly. The price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3,097 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [60]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [60].

Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is showing a steady yet weak trend overall, with the North China market experiencing a relatively quiet trading atmosphere and some manufacturers in the Shahe area reducing prices by 40 yuan/ton [2] - The Central China market saw a price drop of 10 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton, with downstream processing plants primarily focused on digesting existing inventory [2] - The East China market remained stable, with some manufacturers offering discounts of 2-3 yuan per weight box for old stock [2] Price Index - As of August 1, the float glass price index is 1204.02, down 11.76 from the previous working day, reflecting a decrease of 0.97% [3] Futures Market - On August 1, the main futures contract FG2509 opened at 1116 yuan/ton and closed at 1102 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.84% [6] - The highest price during the day was 1134 yuan/ton, while the lowest was 1077 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,169,245 contracts and an increase of 67,980 contracts [6] - The decline in futures prices is attributed to unmet policy expectations and a downturn in market sentiment, exacerbated by a lack of stimulating measures in the real estate sector [6][7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with many businesses adopting a stable pricing strategy and some manufacturers being flexible in order-taking [8] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain narrow, with a focus on inventory changes and policy developments that could influence market sentiment [8]