Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of the Chinese economy in response to rising global trade protectionism and unilateral trade disputes initiated by the U.S. The strategy of expanding foreign trade to domestic sales showcases this resilience [1][2] - Economic resilience is measured by three dimensions: resistance, recovery, and renewal. China's export share to the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a strong capacity to absorb foreign trade goods into the domestic market [1] - The government is actively supporting foreign trade enterprises through various policies, including financial subsidies and special financing tools, to help them adapt to the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The strategy of expanding domestic sales not only enriches the domestic market supply but also enhances market competition, driving industrial upgrades and promoting high-quality economic development [1][3] - The long-term cultivation of the domestic market will effectively enhance the competitiveness of foreign trade, transitioning from a low-price orientation to a focus on high quality and high technology [2] - The approach of "internal promotion of external trade" reflects China's commitment to high-level opening-up and serves as a proactive response to changes in the global economic landscape, fostering new opportunities for international cooperation [3]

土耳其财政部长：国内需求和投资使土耳其经济在全球不确定性中相对具有韧性。 ...

谈及房地产行业，陆挺认为尽管当前房地产行业仍处于调整期，但在人口向大城市集聚、老旧住房 更新需求释放等趋势下，房地产市场仍有很大发展空间。他建议，剩余城市的限购限售可以进一步 取消，全面释放市场活力。同步加快行业债务出清进程，强化保交房政策执行力度，通过"保交付、 稳预期"重构购房者信心。 本文节选自腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士视频专访的专篇报道，请点击"阅读原 文"查看原报道。 2025年一季度中国经济以5.4%的增速超预期开局，彰显了中国经济在复杂环境下的韧性。然而，持 续的中美关税战仍为接下来的经济走势增添了不确定性。 面对内外挑战，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在与腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对话时指出，中美贸易冲 突升级可能导致中国出口增速下降，叠加房地产行业萎缩，二季度起GDP增速或放缓。对此，他认为接 下来提振经济，需要进一步刺激消费，并稳住房地产。 在经历了两轮"以旧换新"政策后，耐用品刺激政策边际效应逐步递减，促消费政策可转向耐用品消 费之外，陆挺认为"推动养老体系改革和保障水平提升，才是最具效能的促消费工具。"他进一步给 出具体建议：提升农民养老金，通过增强中低收入群体 ...

2025年1月，美国特朗普政府出台了一系列新的外交政策，尤其是关税战让世界贸易面临重重挑战。面 对复杂多变的外部环境，我国应如何实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，扩大高水平对外开 放，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，成为本次论坛的重要议题。 新京报讯（记者肖隆平）4月22日，主题为"直面关税战 锻造经济韧性"的2025新京智库春季论坛将在京 开幕。 大咖云集，群贤毕至。2025新京智库春季论坛仍将以问题为导向，以思想创新助推发展，增强信心，共 创繁荣。 编辑 郑伟彬 校对 张彦君 本次论坛将汇集国内各领域专业力量，盛邀多位权威专家，立足中国，放眼全球，把握时局，解读趋 势，助力我国经济社会高质量发展。 十四届全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任余斌，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国社会科学院 原副院长高培勇，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本研究院院长吴晓球，中国社科院旅游研 究中心特约研究员、中国旅游报社原社长高舜礼，全国高校国际贸易学科协作组秘书长、对外经济贸易 大学原副校长林桂军教授等重量级嘉宾将做主旨发言。 同时，当天上午，主办方还将发布《新京报网红城市潜力报告（2025）》，主要包括《 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

证券研究报告｜数据点评 2025 年 4 月 16 日 一季度宏观数据解读：经济韧性较强 无惧市场风浪 核心观点： 外部关税壁垒升级虽然对出口形成短期压力，但国内政策组合拳发 力下，经济内生增长动能逐步增强，国内经济极具韧性，对全球经 济波动有较强的抵抗性，有利于吸引全球资产配置中国市场。另外， 通胀的整体回暖向好，表现了稳增长，扩内需政策逐步落地的有效 性，对市场预期有正向促进作用。 一、宏观政策组合拳发力生效，国内经济增速有韧性： 一季度财政政策靠前发力，政府债券发行提速。3 月新增政府债券 近 1.5 万亿元，同比多增近 1 万亿元。特别国债发行 5000 亿元补充 银行资本，预计撬动 4 万亿元信贷增量。货币政策保持合理宽松， M2 增速稳定维持在 7.0%，信贷结构也在持续优化，小微企业贷款、 绿色贷款等重点领域得到了更大力度的支持。 GDP 增速表现亮眼。一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，这一成绩不仅高于 去年同期，更是在全球主要经济体中脱颖而出，展现出中国经济强 大的韧性和活力。工业增加值增长 6.5%，服务业增长 5.3%，固定资 产投资增长 4.2%，社会消费品零售总额增长 4.6%。3 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and China, indicating a need for both countries to find a dynamic balance based on mutual interests amid escalating tensions [1][2] - It emphasizes that despite a 30% decline in China's exports to the US due to tariffs, the Chinese economy demonstrates resilience through domestic demand expansion, market diversification, and supply chain restructuring [2][4] - The future of China-US trade is expected to shift towards a "Global South" framework, compensating for short-term adjustments in trade relations [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Quantitative Analysis of Tariff Impact - Tariffs have led to changes in trade volume and structure, with a projected 30% decline in actual trade scale when adjusted for inflation [4][5] - Three scenarios for future trade are outlined: optimistic (5%-7% annual growth), neutral (2%-3% annual decline), and pessimistic (10%-15% annual decline) [4][5] - The report notes that tariffs have accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with significant investments in Mexico and Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [5][8] 2. Economic Resilience of China - The contribution of exports to GDP has decreased from 11% in 2017 to 6% in 2024, with domestic consumption becoming the main growth driver [10][11] - China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors has improved from 15% in 2018 to 35% in 2024, showcasing advancements in technology and innovation [11] - Regional economic strategies, such as the Yangtze River Delta integration, have strengthened domestic supply chains and reduced reliance on foreign components [11] 3. Future Development Trends in China-US Trade - The report discusses the potential for a new trade system under the "Global South" framework, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets [12][14] - It highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and trade policies to stabilize the economy and mitigate the effects of tariffs [14] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to lead to a cautious approach in future negotiations, with both sides seeking a new balance in trade relations [15][18]