【#专家分析美元指数突破100大关#】#美元指数涨破100大关#11月4日，美元指数自8月初以来首度升破 100关口，最高报100.21，为三个月来的最高水平。就在同一天，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第35天，追 平美国史上最长纪录。中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表示，美联储内部出现政策分 歧是美元短线反弹的直接导火索。美联储主席鲍威尔强调不能保证进一步降息，市场押注12月再降息的 概率从94%骤降至69%，这一预期修正迅速推动美元回补。"美国政府停摆虽被视为美元潜在利空，但 短期内反而强化了美元避险属性。"李钢解释，停摆带来的风险主要是对内财政执行的瘫痪，而非对外 偿付能力的削弱。对美元走势，李钢认为，美元短期可能维持强势震荡格局，但上涨受限。若美国政府 停摆延续，美联储决策难度将上升，市场或重新评估美元的政策可持续性。（宅男财经） 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,038.63 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day, coinciding with a significant drop in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 1,038.63 tons, down by 3.15 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decline in gold ETF holdings occurred alongside a notable drop in spot gold prices, which fell to a low of $3,929.14 per ounce, marking the lowest level since October 30 [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On November 4, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, closing at $3,931.78 per ounce, down $69.38 or 1.73% [5]. - The overall market sentiment was affected by a decline in global stock markets and risk assets, leading to a downward trend in commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising bond yields have contributed to the pressure on gold prices, with expectations for a December rate cut diminishing [6]. - Economic uncertainty stemming from the potential government shutdown has provided some support for gold prices, as Congress remains deadlocked over funding proposals [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Recent weeks have seen key technical levels breached, particularly the psychological $4,000 mark, triggering technical selling and long liquidation [6]. - The technical outlook for gold indicates an increased risk of correction, with daily momentum indicators showing a downward trend and a weakening bullish sentiment [6][7]. - Short-term support for gold is identified in the $3,910-$3,900 range, with potential challenges to $3,850 and even $3,800 if further declines occur [7].

| 工G国留留信 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 色金属数据目报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方言詞 | 2025/11/05 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 变化（%） | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10872. 5 | -0. 3 | -0. 27 | 10855. 5 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | | | 0.8 | 锌 | 3190 | 0. 63 | 3090 | 1500000 | LME | 品 | -0. 25 | 1995 | 2893 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock markets are experiencing significant declines, influenced by the performance of the US stock market and a sudden strengthening of the US dollar, leading to a liquidity crisis in the market [1][6][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Japanese and Korean stock markets opened sharply lower, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 4.7% and breaking below 50,000 points [1]. - The Korean Composite Index fell over 6% at one point, with the Kospi 200 futures dropping more than 5% before programmatic trading sell orders were suspended [4]. - European indices also declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.27%, CAC 40 down 0.52%, and DAX 30 down 0.6% [6]. Group 2: US Market Influence - On November 4, all three major US indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.53%, S&P 500 down 1.17%, and Nasdaq down 2.04%, losing nearly 500 points [6]. - The decline in global stock markets is attributed to the performance of US equities [6]. Group 3: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Markets - The precious metals market also saw significant declines, with COMEX gold futures down 1.81% to $3,941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce [6]. - Major cryptocurrencies faced sharp drops, with Ethereum falling below $3,100 (down 14%) and Bitcoin dropping over 7% to below $99,000 [6]. Group 4: Dollar Strength and Market Liquidity - The sudden strengthening of the US dollar, which reached a high of 100.25 points, is seen as a key factor behind the global asset declines [7][9]. - The increase in dollar demand is attributed to unclear interest rate cut expectations and a flight to safety amid falling gold and cryptocurrency prices [9][10]. - The US Treasury's significant cash absorption from the market, exceeding $700 billion in the past three months, has led to a liquidity crisis, impacting global markets [10][11].

技术分析，自0.6562一线高点回落后，汇价沿着短期下降通道震荡走低，最低探至0.6491。0.6500整数 关口构成即时心理位，但上方0.6517的回撤高点已转化为短线阻力，若不能站稳其上，反弹多为技术性 修复。 对澳元而言，政策不变与"偏鹰的耐心"若通胀黏性延续，澳洲联储维持紧的期限或被拉长，对澳元利差 与套息交易是中性偏多的边际支撑，若增长再显疲态或通胀回落快于预期，市场会提前交易未来宽松的 折现路径，对澳元构成压力。短线方向仍需等待本周四将公布的9月贸易帐，为顺周期的商品与外需线 索提供增量信息。 另一方面，美元保持坚挺。市场对美联储年内进一步降息的押注降温，美元指数刷新三个月高位，突破 100.00关口。来自联邦基金利率期货的隐含概率显示，12月会议降息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%的可能性 从一周前的94.4%回落至67.3%。 澳元兑美元技术分析 周三（11月5日)澳元兑美元在亚洲时段交投于0.6480，汇价较前收盘回落近0.14%，短线呈弱势整理， 交易员聚焦澳洲联储最新政策表述与本周后续数据对走势的再定价。 澳洲联储维持现金利率在3.6%不变，符合市场先前预期。通胀粘性仍是政策取向的核心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino-US reached a one-year economic and trade agreement, and there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines. However, due to the Fed's more hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the tightening of liquidity may lead to an adjustment in the price of Shanghai copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price was 85,740, a decrease of 1,560 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 166,742 lots, an increase of 16,145 lots. The open interest was 227,549 lots, a decrease of 21,213 lots. The inventory was 41,147 tons, an increase of 1,081 tons [2]. - **LME Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,649, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.45, a decrease of 4.75 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9255, a decrease of 0.19 [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, and copper enameled wires have decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level of 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, the support level is around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance level is around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level is around 5.5 - 6.0 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the divergence within the Fed has raised doubts about another rate cut this year, and risk aversion has led investors to seek the dollar as a safe - haven, causing the dollar index to strengthen. Large banks have warned of a potential stock market pullback, reflecting growing concerns about over - valuation, which has significantly cooled global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing sentiment declined in October, and economic growth slowed, dampening optimistic expectations. The strengthening dollar has weakened the RMB exchange rate in the short term, affecting domestic risk appetite. However, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC has enhanced policy stimulus expectations, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and future attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as energy metals, precious metals, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market declined. With the decline in China's manufacturing sentiment in October and economic slowdown, along with the short - term weakening of the RMB due to the strong dollar, the short - term macro - upward drive has weakened. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC, policy stimulus expectations have increased. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term high - level correction, they are expected to adjust in the short term while maintaining a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe in the short term and buy on dips in the long term [2][3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets oscillated and declined. With a lack of macro - drive, the market is mainly focused on fundamental logic. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products continued to rise last week, it is generally expected that the demand peak in the second half of the year has passed. Due to losses in some varieties, the steel production capacity release has weakened, and with more environmental protection restrictions, supply may contract further. The steel market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. With the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories also decreased. The global iron ore arrivals this week increased by 1.2298 million tons to 3.3141 million tons, and port inventories increased by 167,000 tons on Monday. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to fall further [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot price of silicon manganese declined slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat, and the futures prices also declined slightly. The production of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese shows that the national capacity utilization rate is 42.99%, a slight decrease from last week, and the daily output increased by 45 tons. The prices of silicon iron in the main production areas are stable, and the raw material prices are also stable. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in October was lower than expected, and the US copper inventory has reached a historical high, restricting future import demand. There are concerns about the restart of a Panamanian copper mine. In China, the copper de - stocking is not as expected, and the social inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine intensifies the global copper shortage, supporting the futures price, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The overall market sentiment cooled, and domestic commodities generally fell, which is negative for aluminum prices. The previous sharp rise deviated from fundamentals due to market speculation. With high domestic supply and imports, weakening demand, and difficulty in de - stocking, along with a significant increase in foreign aluminum inventories, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the price rises above 20,800 yuan/ton, short - selling can be considered [10]. - **Tin**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped significantly overnight due to renewed concerns about the AI bubble. The smelting start - up rate has rebounded significantly and is at a high level, and the supply of tin ore is expected to increase. The demand side is still weak, with the tin solder start - up rate at a low level and limited improvement in downstream orders. The high tin price has suppressed physical demand, but due to previous low inventory levels, some downstream enterprises have carried out small - scale replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. In the medium and short term, the price has support below but limited upside space, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The weighted contract reduced its position significantly. With rumors of a mine restart and a short - term macro - negative environment, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait patiently for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined. The weighted contract increased its position. The demand is relatively stable, and the social inventory has slightly increased at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon declined. The weighted contract reduced its position. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The policy provides support for the spot price, but weak terminal demand restricts price increases. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and interval trading is recommended [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The dollar has reached a five - month high, pressuring crude oil prices. Although Russian seaborne crude oil exports have decreased significantly due to sanctions, some doubt the long - term effectiveness of the sanctions. In the short term, oil prices will face a divergence between short - and long - term trends, and the medium - term pressure remains high [14]. - **Asphalt**: With a slight decline in oil prices, the asphalt futures price dropped significantly, and the basis continued to narrow. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure in social and factory warehouses, and the pressure will increase as the demand off - season approaches. Although the profit has increased slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the supply pressure has decreased temporarily, future crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt still has a large selling pressure [14]. - **PX**: As crude oil prices declined, the polyester sector was weak, and PX oscillated. With high PTA start - up rates, PX still has some demand support. The PXN spread has slightly adjusted, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. Short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: PTA remained weak. Although downstream start - up rates have increased slightly and winter textile demand has increased, the long - awaited production cut agreement among leading manufacturers has not been achieved. With new device replacements, the overall supply remains high, and there is a great inventory accumulation pressure in November. The decline in oil prices also exerts pressure on PTA [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices dropped, and the port inventory has accumulated again. Although the downstream start - up rate is neutral in the short term, the shipping volume is low, and the arrivals are at a relatively high level. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the downstream start - up rate may decline. Caution is required before entering the market [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates in the short term but faces greater pressure in the future. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and the start - up rate has decreased in some areas, with limited inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is at a high level but is slightly decreasing without a significant increase in imports and stable MTO demand. Inland, due to increased device start - up rates and weakening demand, enterprise inventories have accumulated, and prices have weakened. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but with the approaching winter gas restrictions, the supply contraction expectation will gradually emerge, and the downward space is expected to be limited, with the market likely to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [16]. - **PP**: In the PP market, supply growth continues to outpace demand recovery, and the industrial chain inventory is relatively high. However, demand has shown marginal improvement, and the recent rebound in crude oil prices supports the cost, limiting the downward space. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure. With the release of new production capacity and the planned restart of previously shut - down devices, supply is increasing. Demand is expected to weaken after peaking in early November, and the weak crude oil price provides limited cost support. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply is becoming more abundant. With the recent price rebound, downstream replenishment has slowed down. Local agricultural demand is gradually ending, and industrial demand remains weak. The export is expected to stay at a low level due to unclear policies [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT January soybean contract declined. With the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a phased consensus, the trade window for agricultural products may open, and US soybeans may strengthen. The USDA may increase the export forecast in subsequent reports, and if the yield per acre is further reduced, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and oil mills are maintaining high - level crushing, resulting in sufficient soybean meal supply. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans will increase, and the risk of future soybean shortages will decrease, which may lead to inventory accumulation of soybean meal and limit its upside potential. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. Attention should be paid to whether China cancels the 10% reciprocal tariff and opens the market - oriented import window [19]. - **Palm Oil**: After continuous declines, palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage, and the risk of short - selling is increasing. Although the unexpected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October has caused short - term adjustment pressure, the rising prices of international oilseeds and crude oil provide some support. As palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, the seasonal inventory - reduction trend remains unchanged. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and palm oil continues to operate weakly [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil continues to adjust weakly in a narrow range, with a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Supported by the rising cost of imported soybeans, it is relatively more resistant to decline compared to palm oil. Rapeseed oil inventory is still at a high level, but rapeseed inventory is running out. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade, the sentiment of traders to hold back supply and support prices is strong, and the basis continues to strengthen [19]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales is gradually weakening, and the prices in production areas are stable, but the intention of traders to build inventories is still general. The situation of a bumper harvest and market pressure has gradually stabilized. The futures prices are running weakly recently, but the phased bottom - range market may provide effective support [20]. - **Hogs**: In late October, the overall slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms was adjusted, but there was no significant reduction in supply, and the average slaughter weight decreased. It is expected that the supply will continue to increase in November, and the pig - raising profit will remain in the red. Before the small peak of pickled meat consumption around the Winter Solstice in December, it is difficult for pig prices to rebound significantly [20].

【宏观消息】 【黄金期货行情表现】 11月4日，沪金主力暂报915.58元/克，涨幅达0.50%，今日沪金主力开盘价921.90元/克，截至目前最高 925.86元/克，最低912.08元/克。 美国10月ISM制造业PMI指数为48.7，连续第八个月萎缩，不及预期的49.5，前值为49.1。新订单连续第 二个月下降，生产指数疲软，物价支付指数创今年初以来新低。这是政府关门期间较为重要的经济数 据，但市场并未因此进一步定价美联储降息，谨慎的态度使得贵金属仍以震荡走势为主。 政府关门仍在持续，最新的消息面：第13次表决仍未通过，美政府 "停摆" 继续，此次关门受到"两党关 系"的催化，仍具备较大的风险。这将一定程度上催化市场后期的不确定性从而增强避险情绪，对于贵 金属来说存在潜在驱动。 【机构观点】 贵金属在仍在震荡趋势中，且受到美元指数和美债利率的大幅反弹抑制，贵金属偏弱运行。前期短期的 回调已经压低波动率，近期的乐观预期均以落地，后续的风险再次上扬的可能性较大，中长期驱动上仍 保持，贵金属具备支撑回升的迹象，但需要注意美债利率和美元指数的变动。 美国国债收益率周一回升明显，十年期美债收益率再次回归4.11， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international gold prices, influenced by factors such as the U.S. government's record shutdown and the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, which have led to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased pressure on gold prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 4, gold opened at $4001.88 per ounce, reached a high of $4005.56, but ultimately closed at $3931.87, down $70.01 or 1.75% [1]. - The price fluctuation for the day was $76.79, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The article highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, including the U.S. ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which are expected to be better than previous values and may negatively impact gold prices [3][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.090%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook suggests that gold bears have the upper hand, with potential further declines below $3900 unless there is a surprising positive employment report [4]. - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices may face selling pressure, with potential targets at $3800 or even $3700 if bearish trends continue [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching new highs around $5000 due to ongoing economic uncertainties and potential future Fed rate cuts [6]. - Factors such as the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation, and global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long run [6][8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3900 and $3850, while resistance levels are at $3970 and $4000 [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.10 and $45.50, with resistance at $47.70 and $48.00 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The unclear outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and tight liquidity in financial markets have driven the US dollar index to rebound, reaching a new high since May 20 of this year [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The US dollar index closed above the 100 mark on Tuesday, marking a significant increase [1] - A stronger dollar has put pressure on gold prices, leading to a decline in international gold prices [1] Group 2: Commodity Market - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $3960.5 per ounce, reflecting a drop of 1.33% [1]