美元指数DXY日内大涨1.00%，现报98.57。 ...

美元指数DXY向上触及98，日内涨0.41%。 美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is operating smoothly with a balanced supply and demand, stable foreign exchange reserves, and a resilient foreign trade environment, despite complex global conditions [1][5]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has shown increased two-way volatility and resilience, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1,332 basis points and the offshore RMB by 1,796 basis points against the USD in the first half of the year [2][3]. - The USD index has decreased by 10.79% in the same period, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. - Market analysts expect the RMB to maintain a stable range between 7.1 and 7.3 against the USD in the second half of the year, with limited potential for the RMB to break below 7 [4]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of $322 billion and a continuous growth for six months [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [5]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of June, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces [6]. - The gold reserves represent 7.32% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is below the global average of around 15% [6]. Cross-Border Investment Reforms - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has proposed reforms to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, aiming to optimize the business environment and support high-quality economic development [7]. - These reforms include nine specific policies to enhance foreign exchange management and promote stable foreign investment [7]. Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, supported by a recovering economy, balanced international payments, and enhanced market resilience [8]. - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies and the promotion of domestic demand are anticipated to further stabilize the RMB exchange rate [8].

不过，技术面给出了不一样的结论。5月12日至今，美元指数日线级别形成头肩底结构：左肩形成于6月 12日，最低点97.57；右肩形成于7月24日，最低点97.08点。左肩和右肩的数值接近，符合头肩底的基本 要求。7月1日触及阶段性低点96.34，形成头肩底的底部。头肩底结构往往意味着中期趋势筑底结构， 一旦左右肩的高点被突破，较大规模的上涨有望开启。图中绿色区域为近期阻力位，区间 98.93~99.39，如果行情在此处形成长阳线，则筑底结构确认完成。 消息面来看，美元的最大利空因素来自于美联储。美国总统特朗普接二连三的批评美联储暂停降息的货 币政策，昨日特朗普甚至亲自去美联储总部督促鲍威尔降息。特朗普的诉求是，将美国的基准利率降低 至1%或以下，以降低白宫的债务利息规模，刺激房地产市场发展。美联储主席鲍威尔坚持不降息，这 有可能威胁到他的职位稳定。特朗普可能利用美联储大楼翻新资金超预算的理由，罢免鲍威尔。一旦鲍 威尔离任，美国宏观经济前景将更加暗淡，美元指数空头趋势可能延续。 欧盟已经宣布对美国的关税政策进行反制，总额930亿欧元，8月7日执行。特朗普的激进关税政策可能 反噬美国宏观经济，并且会冲击美元作为储备 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in July, marking the lowest level since December 2024 [4] - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates, aligning with market expectations [4] - The EU has approved a countermeasure plan against US tariffs, amounting to €93 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.18% to 2120.00 [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 21057.96, up by 0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.70% to 44693.91 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 1.24% to $69.36 [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.19% to 2203.09 [5]

Group 1 - The report explains a dual-factor model for gold price fluctuations, identifying US M2 and the US dollar index as the core factors influencing gold pricing. The model indicates that US M2 accounts for 78% of the variance in gold prices [1][10][17] - The first phase of gold value recovery has concluded, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend from August 2023 to March 2025, leading to a positive price differential for the first time in April 2025 [2][9][12] - Future gold price movements are expected to be driven by a weak dollar cycle, as the report highlights the long-term overvaluation of the dollar as a key factor suppressing US manufacturing competitiveness [3][24][25] Group 2 - The report suggests that the rapid increase in gold prices has brought them into a reasonably valued range, indicating that the phase of rapid price increases may have ended. Gold price fluctuations are now entering a second phase influenced by the strength of the dollar [5][33][36] - The continuous growth of US M2 is expected to limit the downside potential for gold prices, with projected prices of $3018.75 and $3060.67 for December 2025 and December 2026, respectively [5][33][34] - The report provides a target price for gold based on the regression model and price differentials, predicting a potential price of $3837 per ounce by December 2025 under a weak dollar scenario [6][34][35]

摘要今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 回顾欧央行于7月24日召开的会议，其决定维持三项关键利率不变。该行明确指出，若要在9月会议上采 取降息举措，面临的门槛相对较高。除非经济形势出现明显放缓且风险进一步加剧，否则理事会大概率 将继续维持现有利率水平。 市场曾流传有关美国与欧盟贸易谈判取得突破性进展的消息，但白宫方面迅速予以否认，称此类说法纯 属猜测。此前，据报道曾披露一则重要信息：在特朗普发出拟征收30%关税的信函后，欧盟或考虑同意 双方相互加征关税，且该关税措施预计于8月1日正式生效。 从利率市场预期来看，美联储在7月30日召开的会议上极有可能维持当前利 ...

Group 1 - Silver market shows strong upward momentum, outperforming gold with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% compared to gold's nearly 28% rise [1] - Current silver price is attempting to maintain above the critical level of $39 per ounce, following a prolonged supply shortage lasting 7 years [1] - Spot gold price has fallen below the important threshold of $3360.23 per ounce, while spot silver has shown a slight increase of 0.02% to $39.03 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates that the US composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [2] - Strong PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates, while also boosting the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [2] - Upcoming US durable goods orders data is crucial as it may provide new insights into gold price trends, with strong data potentially reinforcing economic recovery expectations and further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 3 - Spot gold experienced fluctuations with a downward trend, while spot silver remains near a 14-year high, hovering around levels last seen in September 2011 [3] - Silver's recent price action is supported by a weak dollar, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.36%, despite a slight daily decline of 0.50% [3] - Silver continues to trade well above its 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that several dollar-denominated wealth management products in China have been terminated early due to reaching their preset profit-taking conditions, reflecting a trend in the market [1][3][4] - The "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Dollar Overseas QDII" product was terminated after only 7 months, with a target annualized return of 4.20% [1] - Other products, such as those from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have also been terminated early, indicating a broader trend in the industry [3][4] Group 2 - The total scale of dollar-denominated wealth management products has surpassed 520 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [4] - In June, the market saw a record high of 161 new dollar-denominated wealth management products, a 31.97% increase from the same period last year [4] - Many banks are offering annualized returns exceeding 5%, with some products reaching over 5.5% [4] Group 3 - The high returns on dollar-denominated wealth management products are primarily due to the high benchmark interest rates in the U.S., although a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated [5] - Long-term projections suggest a downward trend in U.S. interest rates, which may reduce the yields on dollar deposits and bond assets [5] - Concerns about the U.S. dollar's performance are linked to fluctuating policies, worsening fiscal conditions, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve, which may impact demand for dollar-denominated products [5]

从技术上来看，美指周四上涨在97.55之下遇阻，下跌在97.10之上受到支持，意味着美元短线下跌后有 可能保持上涨的走势。如果美指今天下跌在97.15之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向97.60--97.75之 间。今天美指短线阻力在97.55--97.60，短线重要阻力在97.70--97.75。今天美元走势短线支持在97.15- -97.20，短线重要支持在96.90--96.95。 美国总统特朗普周四视察美联储，在这次罕见的访问中，特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔针锋相对，批评美 联储两栋大楼的翻修于昂贵和浮夸。然而，市场大多对这次访问视而不见，因为已经习惯特朗普对鲍威 尔和美联储的反覆抨击。道明证券亚太区资深利率策略师Prashant Newnaha说："特朗普的美联储之行， 排场大于实质意义。市场的焦点集中在下周的美联储会议。我们预计鲍威尔将重复保持耐心、以数据为 依归的政策前景，并保持灵活性，但（他）不太可能承诺降息。" 周五（7月25日）亚市早盘，美元指数保持上行，最新美元指数报97.59，涨幅0.11%，美元在两周低点 附近企稳，料将录得一个月来最大单周跌幅，因投资者在最后期限到来之前密切关注美国关税谈 ...