Group 1 - The global economy is performing better than expected but has not reached the necessary levels, indicating that a true test may be approaching [1][3] - Current global changes are influenced by geopolitical factors, technological revolutions, demographic shifts, and environmental damage, leading to a significant increase in uncertainty [3] - Tariff policies have not fully manifested their effects, with potential inflationary pressures arising from compressed corporate profits in the U.S. [4] Group 2 - A loose financial environment is masking underlying weak trends, and a significant valuation correction could tighten financial conditions, adversely affecting global economic growth, particularly for developing countries [4] - The IMF projects a global GDP growth rate of 3% for this year, with a slowdown expected in 2024, and will update its economic growth forecasts during the annual meeting from October 13 to 18 [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising since August 22, closing September with a strong bullish trend, indicating robust market momentum [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, with expectations for further rate cuts increasing due to ongoing labor market weakness [1][4] - As of late October, the probability of a rate cut has risen to nearly 100%, with a 99.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and a decrease of 32,000 in September's ADP data [3] - Revised data from the Labor Department indicates a reduction of 911,000 in actual non-farm employment over the past year, with an average monthly increase of only 71,000 [3] - Job openings rose to 7.23 million in August, but hiring plans have dropped to the lowest level since June of the previous year, indicating fewer opportunities for job seekers [3] Group 3 - The recent government shutdown on October 1 has raised concerns about delayed data releases, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [4] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment rates rise significantly, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt more aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility [4] - Technically, gold is showing a bullish trend on both weekly and monthly charts, with expectations of reaching around $4,000 in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global economy is better than expected but has not reached the necessary level, with signs of potential challenges ahead [1] - The current global landscape is undergoing profound changes due to geopolitical factors, technological revolutions, demographic shifts, and environmental damage, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty [1] - The impact of tariff policies has not yet fully manifested, with potential inflationary pressures arising from compressed corporate profits in the U.S. and a shift of goods to other markets [1] Group 2 - A loose financial environment is masking underlying weaknesses, and a significant valuation correction could tighten financial conditions, adversely affecting global economic growth, particularly for developing countries [1] - Despite disruptions, global trade largely continues to follow established rules, and there is a call for countries to maintain trade as a key engine for economic growth [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a global GDP growth rate of 3% for this year, with a slowdown expected in 2024, and will update its economic growth forecasts during the upcoming annual meeting [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 index declining by 0.4% [3] - The government shutdown, stemming from budget disputes in Congress, has entered its third day, leading to delays in key economic data releases such as employment reports, which increases market uncertainty [3] - Historical performance of the S&P 500 index during non-recession periods shows that average returns remain positive, but an extended shutdown could trigger a debt ceiling crisis, amplify inflationary pressures, and weaken consumer confidence [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect is suspended due to a public holiday in the domestic market [3]

Economic Growth Trends - The UK economy's growth momentum is showing signs of continued weakness, with a quarterly growth rate of 0.7% in Q1 slowing to 0.3% in Q2 [1] - Current data indicates that the growth rate is further declining in Q3, with July showing zero growth and PMI data suggesting a continued slowdown in August and September [1] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The manufacturing PMI for September dropped to 46.2, marking a five-month low, indicating significant challenges for UK manufacturers due to low market sentiment and rising costs [1] - Manufacturers' confidence for the next 12 months remains low, reflecting ongoing difficulties in the sector [1] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales in the UK fell by 0.1% from June to August, with a 0.6% decline from May to July, indicating a prolonged downturn in retail traffic [2] - The increase in household savings, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 10.7%, suggests that consumers are prioritizing savings over spending [2] Inflation Impact - The UK's CPI remained at 3.8% year-on-year in July and August, contributing to weakened consumer confidence, particularly in food prices which rose by 4.2% [3] - Rising energy bills and concerns over potential tax increases are adding to consumer pressure [3] Business Investment Decline - Private sector investment fell by 1.1% in Q2, contrasting with a 3% increase in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced investment in equipment [4] - Government investment was the main contributor to the 0.3% growth in Q2, but overall fixed asset investment remains significantly lower compared to previous years [4] Recommendations for Economic Stability - To stabilize economic growth, it is crucial to enhance private consumption and business investment, with a focus on controlling inflation and stabilizing policy expectations [5] - The government is urged to utilize policy tools to lower costs for businesses and stimulate investment, particularly in the upcoming autumn budget [5]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's unemployment rate in August remained at 5.6%, matching the lowest level since the data collection began in 2012, indicating a strong labor market recovery [1] Employment Data - The number of unemployed individuals in Brazil decreased to 6.1 million, the lowest in nearly 12 years, while the total employment reached 102.4 million [1] - The employment rate for the working-age population held steady at a historical high of 58.1%, with formal employment contracts increasing to 39.1 million [1] Job Creation - In August, Brazil added 147,000 formal jobs, contributing to a total increase of 1.4 million jobs over the past 12 months [1] Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the economic vitality in Brazil to government stimulus measures, demographic changes, and technological advancements [1] - Increased job opportunities and income are stimulating consumer spending, although strong demand is also raising inflationary pressures [1] Monetary Policy - To combat rising prices, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15% in June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% following three rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach due to stronger-than-expected inflation and economic data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The RBA noted signs of a recovery in private demand and stable labor market conditions, which influenced their decision to keep the cash rate unchanged [1] - Recent data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the second consecutive month in August, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range of 2% to 3% [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, reflecting a tight labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar rose to 0.6607 against the US dollar, and the yield on three-year government bonds increased slightly to 3.59% [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut in November, with the probability now below 50%, and have fully priced in the next rate cut to occur in May next year instead of February [1] Future Outlook - The RBA is expected to adopt a cautious stance moving forward, with any future easing likely to be implemented gradually [2] - Upcoming economic data, including third-quarter inflation figures and employment reports, will be critical for the RBA's future decisions [1][2] Global Economic Context - International factors such as protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions are contributing to economic uncertainty, although the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs have not materialized for Australia [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the expectation of interest rate cuts was high, the PCE met expectations, copper prices rose significantly, and the prices of gold and silver continued to expand their gains. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations. Given the approaching National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the approaching deadline for the US government shutdown, and the concentration of important US data such as non - farm payrolls, coupled with high market attention, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: The prices of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai Gold 2512, Shanghai Silver 2512, etc., showed varying degrees of increase. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 rose 3.17%, and Shanghai Silver 2512 rose 6.98%. The US dollar index rose 0.55%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.3% [4][13]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - **Policy and Political Events**: The White House warned of potential permanent layoffs during a government shutdown, escalating the budget deadlock. All living former Fed chairmen and many former US Treasury secretaries, White House economic advisers, and economists urged the US Supreme Court not to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US finalized a tariff agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1, and exempting some EU products from tariffs from September 1 [13][14][15]. - **Other Economic Data**: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Review - **Market Trends**: The expectation of interest rate cuts increased again last week, and gold and silver prices rose. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the US government shutdown deadline, and the concentration of important US data, the upward trend of gold and silver prices remains, but there may be significant fluctuations. Silver prices rose sharply on Friday night, but there was a reduction in positions on that day, so investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - **Industry - related Data**: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold and Silver Positions**: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. There were obvious single - day increases in positions for both Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver during the week, but there was a reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in prices [13]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly in an oscillatory manner, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly in an oscillatory manner [34][36]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase significantly, the COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, the Shanghai Silver inventory increased significantly, and the COMEX silver inventory increased slightly [38][39][41]. 3.5 Summary - The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays due to the approaching US government shutdown deadline and the concentration of important US data. Given the reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in silver prices, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13].

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]