Group 1 - The report highlights a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and fully priced expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to profit-taking pressure after substantial prior gains [1][7][30] - The U.S. inflation data released by the Labor Department showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.0% for September, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and a core CPI increase of 3.0%, also lower than expected [1][8][30] - The report notes that the economic data vacuum due to the government shutdown may persist, affecting the release of future inflation data [1][7] Group 2 - In the global equity markets, the report indicates mixed performance, with the South Korean index showing the highest gain at +5.14%, followed by the Shenzhen Composite Index at +4.73% and the Hang Seng Index at +3.62% [2][34] - The report details that the energy sector in the U.S. stock market saw a rise of +2.90%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a decline of -0.59% [41] - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector also led gains at +5.26%, while the healthcare sector fell by -0.74% [41]

Core Viewpoint - Economic uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, leading to a rebound in gold prices after hitting a low, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4092 per ounce [1] Market Performance - As of 14:23, the China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.37%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.89%, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.58% [1] Economic Context - The U.S. White House has warned that due to the ongoing government shutdown, it may not release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history this data will not be published [1] - In the absence of this data, the interaction between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be the primary driver of gold price fluctuations [1] Investment Insights - According to Guangfa Fund Advisory, the recent pullback in gold prices is mainly due to easing concerns over geopolitical conflicts and some profit-taking by investors [1] - Despite the high volatility expected in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain asset allocation value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Copper: Long-term holding ★★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound ★ [1] - Lead: Strong ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound ★ [1] - Aluminum: Strong ★★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish ★★ [1] Report's Core View - The long-term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Short-term fluctuations are affected by factors such as Sino-US relations and geopolitical situations [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with cautious chasing of highs. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and potential demand growth [1][7]. - Zinc is expected to have limited upside after the short-term macro - policy stimulus fades, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as inventory depletion and cost support [1][14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Sino-US relations eased, market risk aversion subsided, and gold and silver prices continued to adjust [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Sino-US negotiations achieved results, US data supported further interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and the French political crisis were complex, and gold is expected to have a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Short - term attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver stop falling. Domestic gold pays attention to the 930 support, and silver pays attention to the effectiveness of the 11000 support [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and the center of gravity continued to move up [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and downstream demand was affected by factors such as real estate and infrastructure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the super macro week, it is recommended to continue to hold copper long positions, be cautious about chasing highs, and use trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long term, copper is still optimistic [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc oscillated narrowly overnight, with insufficient upward momentum [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was loose, demand was weak, and overseas LME zinc inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc continued to rebound, but the overall demand was weak. In the medium - to - long term, it is still a short - side allocation in the sector [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - interest rate cut expectations continued. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina market was in an oversupply pattern [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances weakened, domestic pure nickel inventory increased significantly, and stainless steel market inventory increased, with weak downstream demand [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, encountered resistance and fell back after rising to 81,000, and the gains narrowed at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals improved significantly, with continuous inventory reduction for 10 weeks, strong terminal demand, and a positive feedback loop in the industry was expected to form [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of [78800 - 82000] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. Due to factors such as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, expected dovish statements from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and tight supply in the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or strong - oscillating trend in the short term [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Supply concerns and optimism about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations pushed up copper prices. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.2% to $10,947/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 87,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 575 to 136,350 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories in some regions also changed. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and an expected dovish statement from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, sentiment is expected to remain positive. Given the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories, copper prices are expected to continue to be strong. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 86,600 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. On Friday, the LME aluminum closed down 0.3% to $2,856/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased, and inventories in some domestic regions and abroad changed. The downstream procurement sentiment weakened [4]. - **Strategy View**: After the production suspension of an overseas aluminum plant and considering the low domestic inventory, improved global trade situation, and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate upward. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,100 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum is 2,830 - 2,880 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,592 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of lead showed different changes. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.61 million tons [7]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore decreased, and the TC of lead concentrate imports declined. The smelting start - up rate and battery start - up rate showed different trends. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot inventory and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of zinc changed. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.21 million tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased slightly, and the TC of zinc concentrate decreased. The smelting profit declined, and the inventory accumulation rate of domestic zinc ingots slowed down. With a high structural risk of LME zinc and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed down 0.42% to 282,550 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and although the start - up rate of smelters increased slightly, it was still at a low level. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the social inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a tight supply - demand balance of tin, and the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Last Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel - iron showed different trends, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the significant inventory pressure of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If nickel prices fall enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate also rose [18]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is strong, and the fundamental situation has improved. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the inventory reduction trend may continue until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure from industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 77,800 - 82,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.95% to 2,821 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount, and the overseas price and import profit and loss were stable. The futures inventory remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. Considering the positive market atmosphere and the price approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.35% to 12,810 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and raw - material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: Although the price - support signal from the market is clear, the downstream demand support is weak, and the cost support has declined. The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, so it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose 0.39% to 20,705 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the trading volume increased. The inventory in some regions decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy View**: Progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and strong cost support the price, but due to high warehouse receipts, the upward space of the near - term contract price may be limited [28].

Core Viewpoint - The White House issued a warning that the October inflation data may not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown, marking a historical first for such an occurrence [1] Group 1 - The absence of the inflation data will create greater uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in adjusting interest rates and assessing price trends [1] - The decision-making process for monetary policy in December will become extremely complicated due to the lack of this critical data [1]

Group 1 - The European credit rating agency Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to the continuous deterioration of public finances and declining government governance standards [1][2] - The report indicates that the U.S. government debt is expected to reach 140% of GDP by 2030 without substantial reforms, which is significantly higher than most sovereign nations [2] - The agency also highlighted that the decline in governance standards, including the concentration of executive power and challenges to judicial authority, has increased the risk of policy missteps [2] Group 2 - The U.S. credit rating outlook is stable, with balanced risks for potential upgrades or downgrades in the next 12 to 18 months [2] - Downside risks include the continuous rise in debt levels and a potential significant weakening of the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency, which could reduce global demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government is facing a potential inability to release inflation data next month due to a government shutdown, marking the first time in over 70 years this has occurred [4][5] - The absence of inflation data may create greater uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in adjusting interest rates and assessing price trends [6] - Recent market reactions show that U.S. stock indices have reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all reporting significant weekly gains [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in precious metal prices is more of a "correction in an uptrend" rather than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. Maintain a long - term bullish view and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting next Thursday. Suggest allocating long positions on dips, with the reference range for the SHFE gold main contract at 923 - 982 yuan/gram and for the SHFE silver main contract at 11082 - 12023 yuan/kilogram [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: Gold and silver prices declined this week. As of Friday's daytime close, SHFE gold fell 6.17% to 938.10 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 7.49% to 11332.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 3.30% to 4126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 4.38% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.94 [11] - **Reasons for the Correction**: The main reasons were the expected easing of overseas risk events and over - bought corrections in trading, not a reversal in the trading logic. News of a potential end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the risk events have not been completely reversed [11] - **US Economic Data**: The US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. There may be a lack of inflation data in the future, and the market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings [11] 3.2. Market Review - **Price Movements**: Gold and silver prices declined this week. SHFE gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all recorded drops [30] - **Open Interest**: This week, the total open interest of SHFE gold decreased by 1.28% to 355,900 lots, while the total open interest of COMEX gold as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. The total open interest of SHFE silver decreased slightly by 1.97% to 739,900 lots, and the total open interest of COMEX silver as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [32][34] - **Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the September 23 report period, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds increased. The net position of COMEX gold managed funds rose by 1578 lots to 160,500 lots, and that of COMEX silver managed funds rose by 1293 lots to 37,000 lots [36] - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 24, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2332.14 tons, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 28165.84 tons [39] 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: Analyzed the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [49] - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: Presented the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52] - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's total assets decreased by 6921 million US dollars this week. There were changes in various items on both the asset and liability sides [54] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **US CPI & PCE**: The US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected and previous values. The CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the core CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1% [61] - **US Employment**: Due to the US government shutdown, the latest weekly unemployment data was missing [64] - **US PMI & PPI**: The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, higher than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, lower than the expected 51.7 and the previous value of 52 [67] - **US New Housing Data**: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized number of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized number of new housing starts was 1.307 million [70] 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: Analyzed the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [73] - **Silver Basis**: Analyzed the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [76] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: Analyzed the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [79] 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: Presented the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [86][89] - **Gold Inventories**: Presented the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [91]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data for the first time in history, creating significant uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The White House indicated that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cannot conduct essential price surveys, leading to a potential absence of the October inflation report [2][3]. - Analysts emphasize that the lack of inflation data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates in December, increasing uncertainty about future inflation trends [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data vs. Inflation Data - While the release of October employment data may be less challenging due to companies' clear records of hiring and layoffs, the absence of price surveys will make compiling a complete Consumer Price Index (CPI) report extremely difficult [3]. - The White House's announcement signals to the market that the lack of critical economic data will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to gauge inflation accurately, leading to more complex policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Economists warn that ongoing interruptions in inflation and employment data could undermine market confidence, potentially amplifying financial market volatility and delaying the transmission of monetary policy [4]. - Following the release of September inflation data, which was lower than expected, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve making two more rate cuts within the year, with expectations of a 120 basis point reduction over the next 12 months [5][6].

特朗普政府称，因调查员无法外出采集数据，劳工统计局将无法完成通胀报告。此前受停摆影响，9月 通胀数据已延迟九天公布。 分析指出，通胀数据缺失将使美联储在调整利率与评估物价走势时面临更大不确定性。 据央视新闻10月25日消息，当地时间10月24日，央视记者获悉，美国白宫表示，由于政府停摆已进入第 四周，下月可能无法发布通胀数据，这将是七十多年来首次。 美政府史上第二长"停摆"持续图解9大项负面影响 据央视新闻，截至当地时间10月24日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已经进入第24天，临时拨款法案在国会一再 受阻。 继10月22日，创下历史上第二长的政府"关门"纪录后，这次政府"停摆"的时间还在不断拉长。 有美国媒体发布了一张图，解读政府"停摆"给美国社会生活带来的9大项影响。 美国有线电视新闻网10月23日发布了一张图片，显示"停摆"对社会各方面的负面影响进一步凸显。 图片来源：央视新闻 民航飞机延误 在航空领域，随着"停摆"僵局持续，被要求无薪上岗的6万多名空中交通管制员和机场安检人员陷入越 来越大的财务压力，因超长时间上岗而请病假的员工也日渐增多。美国联邦航空管理局23日表示，随着 图片来源：央视新闻视频截图 政府" ...

美股三大指数集体走高，均再创历史新高。 截至10月24日收盘，纳指涨1.15%，本周累计上涨2.31%；道指涨1.01%，本周累涨2.2%；标普500指数 涨0.79%，本周累涨1.92%。 大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达、谷歌涨超2%，亚马逊、苹果涨超1%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨；特斯拉 跌超3%，奈飞跌超1%。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.27%。个股方面，阿特斯太阳能涨超6%，小马智行涨逾 3%，陆控涨近3%，世纪互联涨超2%，金山云涨逾2%；再鼎医药跌超6%，贝壳跌逾3%，百胜中国跌超 1%，理想汽车跌逾1%，爱奇艺跌近1%。 特朗普政府称，因调查员无法外出采集数据，劳工统计局将无法完成通胀报告。此前受停摆影响，9月 通胀数据已延迟九天公布。 分析指出，通胀数据缺失将使美联储在调整利率与评估物价走势时面临更大不确定性。 来源：证券时报、央视新闻、公开信息 本期编辑：孙琪 美国劳工统计局周五发布的报告显示，9月份整体和核心通胀指标均低于预期，为美联储进一步推进降 息铺平了道路。这是政府停摆以来第一份重磅数据。 美国9月未季调CPI年率录得3%，较上个月的2.9%小幅上升，为2025年1月以来新高 ...