Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the gold market following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant decrease in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 3.1%, while the core CPI also came in at 2.6%, below both the previous value and market expectations of 3% [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, reinforced by President Biden's statement that the next Fed chair must be a "super dove," raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates at its last meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1] - The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a dovish stance being fully priced in [1] - Despite the prevailing loose monetary environment, caution is advised regarding gold prices and their potential to quickly break through previous historical highs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated narrowly and trended stronger, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The inflation data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish, and the expectation of continued interest - rate cuts in 2026 was reinforced. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, there are certain macro - level disturbances. Although copper has digested this factor to some extent, short - term caution is advised, but a prudent and optimistic attitude can be maintained [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina still has downward pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to run at a high level as the de - stocking process is expected to be prolonged [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. The news boosted nickel prices, but the actual implementation situation needs to be monitored. In the traditional industry chain, the price of nickel - iron was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the stainless - steel spot market improved. In the new - energy industry chain, the price was dragged down by the decline in nickel prices and weakening demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US inflation data in November showed a further easing of inflation pressure, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish. LME copper inventory decreased by 2650 tons to 164275 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2339 tons to 416914 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 44650 tons, and BC copper decreased by 5127 tons to 1053 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2545 yuan/ton, down 1.05%, with a position reduction of 4503 lots to 166,000 lots. AL2602 closed at 22030 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a position increase of 3445 lots to 299,000 lots. AD2602 closed at 21130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a position reduction of 14 lots to 17176 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2778 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 140 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.84% to 14630 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.56% to 115350 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253938 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 748 tons to 37513 tons. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the planned nickel ore production in 2026 might be about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 2025 target [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 92115 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 166925 tons, up 325 tons from the previous day. The total domestic + bonded area social inventory was 23.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous day [4]. - **Lead**: On December 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 265575 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 2508 tons to 32227 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21740 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from the previous day. The total SHFE inventory decreased by 3635 tons to 119995 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.2 million tons to 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 118350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 253998 tons, up 690 tons from the previous day. The total social inventory of nickel (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) was 58970 tons, up 2122 tons from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22910 yuan/ton, down 1.0% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 2505.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 12.58 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 325010 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 27540 US dollars/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 526 tons to 7391 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts for analysis, including spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][15][22][29][35][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Seasonal factors and a slowdown in domestic investment growth make it difficult to change the weak demand pattern for steel. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate strongly due to market sentiment repair and cost increase [1] - US inflation is lower than expected, increasing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year, which is bullish for silver [1] - In the case of stable supply and slightly decreased demand, the de - stocking of lithium carbonate has slowed down this week, and the price may continue to rise after a correction [3] - Coking coal remains weak, with current policies providing only limited short - term support. Near the delivery, it may face problems with poor long - position delivery willingness [4] - Special bonds may be pre - arranged, and fiscal policy may continue to be strong next year. The bond market should not be bearish in the short term and should be observed for the evolution of monetary easing expectations [4] - Although the pig price rose yesterday, it is expected to weaken after a short - term rebound due to overall ample supply [5] - The decline in Indonesian palm oil inventory is marginally beneficial, but the inventory pressure in Malaysia and unclear demand prospects limit price increases [5] - The supply of imported soybeans is increasing, and the domestic soybean meal futures contract has limited upside space and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - The change in the candidates for the Fed chairman and the significant decline in US inflation make it difficult for gold to have further upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to high domestic methanol production and weak demand [7] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high inventory and new production capacity pressure [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the market tends to be dull [9] - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level strong oscillation pattern due to the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [11] - Crude oil should be treated with a slight downward oscillation in the short term due to supply pressure and geopolitical risks [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate as the supply - side situation changes and tire production and sales are affected [12] - PTA lacks a basis for decline in the short term due to cost support and can be cautiously tested for long positions on sharp declines [12] Summary by Variety Steel - As of the week of December 18, the output of rebar was 1816800 tons, an increase of 29000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 1395400 tons, a decrease of 12600 tons; the social inventory was 3130000 tons, a decrease of 257000 tons; the apparent demand was 2086400 tons, an increase of 55500 tons [1] Silver - In November, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations [1] Lithium Carbonate - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97690 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97550 yuan/ton, both rising from the previous working day [3] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.6%, with an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The daily output of raw coal was 1927000 tons, and the inventory was 4789000 tons, both increasing [4] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, and there are expectations for the advance layout of special bonds and continuous fiscal efforts next year [4] Live Pigs - On December 18, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5% from the previous day [5] Palm Oil - On the 18th, the spot price of domestic 24 - degree palm oil had different changes in different regions. The inventory in Indonesia decreased in October [5] Soybean Meal - On December 18, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices in different regions either remained stable or decreased [6] Gold - Trump said that the nominee for the next Fed chairman would be announced soon, and the candidate would support "substantial" interest rate cuts [6] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2155 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, and the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 74.45% [7] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1258 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly output of soda ash was 721400 tons, a decrease of 1.9% [8] Ethylene Glycol - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The weekly output of domestic ethylene glycol was 386800 tons, a decrease of 0.41% [9] Copper - The US CPI and core CPI in November were both lower than market expectations, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2026 [11] Crude Oil - Trump demanded that Venezuela return the oil rights of US companies, and the US and Ecuador will carry out a joint operation [11] Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand increased, and the tire capacity utilization rate decreased in China. The inventory turnover days of tires increased [12] PTA - The PTA social inventory was 2986100 tons, a decrease of 57800 tons from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations of 3.1%, indicating a notable slowdown in inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The release of the CPI data led to immediate reactions in the forex and bond markets, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) dropping approximately 20 points and non-U.S. currencies strengthening [1]. - The euro against the dollar (EUR/USD) saw a sharp increase of nearly 30 points, while the dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) fell close to 40 points, reaching a low of 155.35 [1]. - U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a significant boost, with bond prices rising and the two-year Treasury yield dropping over 3 basis points to 3.452% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The CPI data's unexpected decline contrasted sharply with pre-release market expectations, which had already partially priced in the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts [2]. - Professional institutions highlighted the temporary nature of the CPI slowdown, attributing it to factors such as government shutdown delays and holiday promotions, warning of potential inflation rebound risks in December [2]. - Retail traders focused on short-term trading opportunities, interpreting the CPI data as a bearish signal for the dollar and discussing the potential for further gains in non-U.S. currencies, particularly the euro and yen [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The ability of non-U.S. currencies like the euro to capitalize on the dollar's short-term weakness will depend on their economic growth dynamics and policy flexibility [5]. - Market participants are advised to remain cautious of liquidity risks and potential volatility as year-end approaches, as well as the impact of central bank officials' statements on inflation and economic assessments [4]. - The sustainability of the U.S. inflation decline and the evolution of supply-side cost pressures from tariff discussions will be critical in determining future market trends [4].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.53% at 25,634.22 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.81% to 5,461.92 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.58% to 8,893.1 points [1] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Alibaba up 0.62%, Tencent up 0.83%, JD.com up 0.71%, Xiaomi up 0.6%, NetEase up 1.42%, Meituan up 0.79%, Kuaishou up 1.3%, and Bilibili up 1.2% [1] - New energy vehicle stocks were active, with Xpeng Motors and Li Auto showing strong performance [1] U.S. Market Overview - On the previous trading day, U.S. indices rose collectively, with the Dow Jones up 0.14% at 47,951.85 points, the S&P 500 up 0.78% at 6,774.76 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.38% at 23,006.36 points [2] - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also lower than the expected 3% [2] - Major tech stocks in the U.S. saw collective gains, with Nvidia up 1.79%, Apple up 0.13%, Microsoft up 1.65%, Google up 1.93%, Amazon up 2.48%, Meta up 2.30%, and Tesla up 3.45% [2] Company News - Emperor Capital (00717.HK) reported total revenue of approximately HKD 730 million for the year ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.3%, and a net profit of approximately HKD 147 million, up 121.4% year-on-year [3] - New Special Energy (01799.HK) plans to sell a 79.92% stake in Xinjiang Wind Power New Energy Partnership to facilitate a REITs issuance, with a transaction value of approximately HKD 1.337 billion [3] - Bay Area Development (00737.HK) signed a construction contract for the Shenzhen section with a contract value of RMB 1.448 billion [3]

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.441≈国内金价。 贵金属的疯狂无法形容，广期所的铂金钯金期货产品11月27日上市后，受到资本爆炒涨停不断；白银不断历史新高，黄金天天过山车。 昨天黄金再次上演超级过山车，昨天黄金白盘波动不大；美盘时段上演大扫荡，日内最低4308美元附近，最高一度冲击4375附近后快速跳水，日线以十字阴 线收盘。白银连续上攻止步66.5～67美元，广期所出台措施限仓铂金钯金手数。圣诞节，元旦节临近，交易也相对清淡，下一步小心空头突袭！ 昨天美国CPI数据显示，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.6%，为2021年3月以来新低。消息 后，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。 并且数据后，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美联储仍有很大降息空间。美联储古尔斯比表示，11月通胀数据良好，对前置降息感到不安。终端 利率将远低于当前水平。 昨天欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，为连续第四次会议按兵不动。欧洲央行官员表示，降息周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rose on December 18, but market direction remained unclear due to a stronger dollar offsetting the positive impact of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading traders to reduce their positions ahead of the Christmas holiday [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper increased by $41, or 0.35%, closing at $11,778 per ton [2]. - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $10.5 (0.36%) to $2,916 per ton, and three-month tin rising by $652 (1.54%) to $42,927 per ton [2][4]. - Trading volume was low, with approximately 14,300 contracts exchanged, below the 30-day average of nearly 22,000 contracts [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3% increase in September, which positively influenced market sentiment [3]. - Copper is viewed as a barometer for global economic health, having increased by 34% year-to-date and reaching a record high of $11,952 per ton last week [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted a lack of interest in new positions, with a potential for increased volatility as the year ends [3]. - Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices will outperform aluminum in 2026, with an average price forecast of $11,400 per ton [3].

美东时间周四，在利好通胀数据的推动下，三大指数集体走高，结束了近期的下跌走势，纳指领涨，上涨约1.4%。 Logan Capital Management首席投资组合经理Chris O 'Keefe表示："美光的财报说明，未来12-18个月的支出规模将持续庞大。" 他补充称："这个过程中会有赢家和输家，这需要时间分化，但如果从盈利角度来看，我不会放弃AI这条主线。我认为，在经历回调之后， 一些股票现在有巨大的上涨空间。" 热门股表现 （三大指数日内走势图，来源：TradingView） 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.14%，报47,951.85点；标普500指数涨0.78%，报6,774.76点；纳斯达克指数涨1.38%，报23,006.36点。 盘前公布的数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，明显低于市场预期的3.1%；剔除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样低 于3%的市场预期。 该报告原定于12月10日发布，但因此前美国联邦政府长期停摆而被推迟，而10月CPI报告直接被取消，这意味着周四公布的这份数据并不 具备标准CPI报告所包含的全部数据点。 鉴于缺乏10月的对比数据，经济学家可能不会 ...

芝加哥联储行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周四表示，最新的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据"有很多值得看好的地 方"，如果能持续下去，将有助于为明年进一步降息打开大门。 古尔斯比在接受采访时表示："我的观点是，利率的稳定点比目前的水平要低一些，到明年年底，只要 我们能让通胀回到2%的轨道上，我认为利率可以大幅下降是现实的。"古尔斯比是上周投票反对降息的 两名官员之一。 古尔斯比称，11月是个"好月份"，CPI数据显示物价压力有所缓和，但他警告称，不要过于看重单个月 的数据。 由于政府停摆而推迟发布的这份报告显示，价格压力有所缓和。但考虑到报告的编制存在问题，经济学 家们对该报告持谨慎态度，而且这一有利的转变并不意味着价格压力正在持续减弱，目前的价格压力远 高于美联储2%的目标。 在一份声明中，古尔斯比表示，"我认为我们应该等到获得更多数据，尤其是关于通胀的数据后，再进 一步降息。"他补充说，"等到新的一年再讨论这个问题不会带来太多额外的风险，而且还会带来最近缺 少的最新经济数据的额外好处。" 芝加哥联储行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周四表示，最新的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据"有很多值得看好的地 方"，如果能持续下去，将有助于为明年进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is expected to rise, following the overnight gains in Wall Street, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for November [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei index futures on the Singapore Exchange rose by 205 points, reaching 49,350 points [1] - The Nikkei index closed down by 1.0% on Thursday, at 49,001.50 points [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The rise in the domestic stock market may be limited ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision announcement today [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise policy interest rates [1] - Focus is likely to be on the media conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for any clues regarding further rate hikes [1]