Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for gold remains bullish despite short-term fluctuations, with a focus on key support levels and a strategy of buying on dips [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing range-bound fluctuations, with a focus on the support levels around 5145-50 and 5090-5100 [1] - The market is influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that inflation has not yet reached targets, which delays interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical risks are still present, but the trend of global central banks purchasing gold continues to provide a supportive floor for gold prices [1] Group 2: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves buying gold on dips at the 5140-5150 range and adding positions at 5090-5100, with a stop-loss set at 5082 and a target of 5250-5270 [1] - Short-term resistance is noted at the 5270-5280 range, while support is identified at 5140-5145 and 5090-5100 [2] - A cautious approach with a focus on buying on dips is advised for trading operations [2]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月25日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周三，橡胶期价延续增仓上行，2609合约涨幅大于近 月，现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价67.3泰铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/k g；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比+0.8泰铢/kg。现货价格方面，盘 后山东地区SCRWF报价16900元/吨，环比+200元/吨。春节后化 工及股市大幅高开，受此提振，橡胶期价增仓再度挑战前高后远月 突破，宏观美国2025年四季度美国GDP增速环比折年率1.4%，远 低于市场预计的2.5%，也低于三季度的修正值4.4%；美国个人消 费支出（PCE）物价指数上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: US tariff policies and Middle - East geopolitical issues have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, so gold may continue to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Silver: Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed risk appetite and silver's bullish sentiment. Silver follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mine production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the spot is expected to oscillate, while the futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to capital sentiment [4] - Rebar: Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process rebar output, and short - process output recovery takes time. Overall output will remain at a low level. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory. However, there are macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, so the downside is limited [4] - Iron Ore: After the holiday, iron - water production increase and steel enterprises' inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation for iron ore is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. Due to the macro expectations driven by the Two Sessions and possible weather disturbances on the supply side, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Crude Oil: US crude oil inventory has increased far beyond expectations, and people are cautious before the US - Iran nuclear talks. The supply pressure of crude oil still exists, and short - term trading is recommended [6] - Natural Rubber: Overseas production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the prices of overseas natural rubber futures and raw materials have risen. China's bonded - area inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has the expectation of improvement. Overall, natural rubber is expected to oscillate strongly [7] - PX: PX has a high operating rate, the terminal off - season atmosphere is obvious, and the downstream polyester operating rate has been declining. The processing fee has slightly declined. The previous rise in oil prices due to geopolitical reasons has provided some support. Short - term trading is recommended [8] - Copper: The inventory has reached a five - year high, bringing "weak reality" pressure. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, but the pace and strength of recovery need further observation. High inventory suppresses short - term prices, while tight supply at the mine end provides long - term support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Plastic: The supply side has sufficient inventory, and the demand side has slow resumption of work and insufficient replenishment. The cost of crude oil is relatively stable. Plastic production enterprises' inventory has increased, and the demand is still weak, so it is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term [9] - Methanol: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and the port inventory is also high. After the holiday, some downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - Long - term Treasury Bonds: Risk - aversion sentiment may increase, and the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount after the holiday, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate in a triangular - convergence pattern [11] - Aluminum: The early resumption of production at an Icelandic smelter is a marginal repair signal for overseas supply. The global electrolytic aluminum supply shows a pattern of "overseas fluctuations and domestic rigidity". The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and there is great pressure from new capacity. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Trump's speech on tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, weakening the upward momentum of gold [2] Silver - Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed silver's bullish sentiment. It follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 48.9%, with a 32.5% decrease compared to the previous period. The daily output of raw coal has decreased by 72.2 tons to 108.6 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased. The daily output of clean coal has decreased by 28.4 tons to 45.9 tons, and the inventory has decreased by 9.6 tons. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted [4] Rebar - On February 25, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The price of billets in Tangshan has increased, and the average price of rebar has decreased slightly. Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process output, and short - process output recovery takes time. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory, but the downside is limited due to macro disturbances [4] Iron Ore - From February 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3320.9 tons, an increase of 631.0 tons compared to the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2713.3 tons, an increase of 598.4 tons. After the holiday, iron - water production increase and inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation [5] Crude Oil - As of February 20, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 8.51245 billion barrels, an increase of 15.989 million barrels compared to the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 4.35804 billion barrels, also an increase of 15.989 million barrels. The gasoline inventory decreased by 10.11 million barrels. The daily crude oil output was 13.702 million barrels, a decrease of 330,000 barrels compared to the previous week but an increase of 2 million barrels compared to the same period last year. OPEC + may increase the daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April [6] Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 67.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 56.5 Thai baht/kg. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade areas was 667,700 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons compared to the previous period. Overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream is gradually resuming work [7] PX - The 800,000 - ton PX plant of Sinochem Quanzhou has started production, and the estimated PX output in February is 3.08 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 93.39%. The expected output of the PTA market in the next period is 5.7 million tons. As of February 24, the price difference between PX and naphtha was 310 US dollars/ton [8] Copper - As of February 24, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper in mainstream areas has increased by 154,900 tons during the Spring Festival, exceeding 500,000 tons, reaching a five - year high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the import demand has increased [8] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6737 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 329,100 tons, a decrease of 3.15%. The production enterprise inventory is 252,400 tons, an increase of 78.5%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products has decreased by 3.8% [9] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 92.75%, an increase of 0.68%. The total operating rate of downstream industries is 69.63%, a decrease of 0.63% [10] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The US trade representative may take tariff measures, which may increase risk - aversion sentiment. After the holiday, the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount, and the capital market is loose, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market [11] Aluminum - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter will resume production in April 2026, 6 months earlier than expected. The plant has an annual capacity of 320,000 tons and was shut down by two - thirds in October 2025 due to a power failure. It is expected to be close to full production by the end of July [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1219 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly output of soda ash is 774,300 tons, a decrease of 1.22%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44%. The operating rate of float glass is 71.07%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. The average price of float glass is 1126 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises is 55.352 million heavy boxes, an increase of 4.31% [14]

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - After a catch - up rise, Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range. The main contract closed at 24,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan with a 0.08% increase, with reduced volume and positions. In the short term, macro - geopolitical risk aversion and rising expectations of interest rate cuts support non - ferrous metals, but the supply - demand imbalance and high inventory in the zinc market restrict its performance. It is advisable to adopt a range - trading strategy for now [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2602, 2603, 2604) are presented. The main contract 2603 closed at 24,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan with a 0.08% increase, and the open interest decreased by 8,529 lots to 26,600 lots [7] - **Inventory Situation**: During the domestic holiday, LME zinc ingot inventory remained at a low level. On the 24th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,425 tons to 99,825 tons. In China, after the holiday, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 209,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 49,300 tons compared with before the holiday, with a higher increase than the 37,000 tons in the same period last year, and it is at the average level of the past three years [7] - **Spot Market**: Downstream production enterprises have not fully resumed production this week, and the spot market trading is light. The Shanghai market offers a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 03 contract, the Tianjin market offers a discount of 30 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market offers a discount of 115 yuan/ton to the 04 contract, with the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong expanding [7] 2. Industry News - **Price Range**: On February 25, 2026, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and Shuangyan zinc are given, along with the morning market's premium and discount quotes for different contracts in various regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recovery of the U.S. stock market, particularly the rebound of major indices, has significantly alleviated the tension in the cryptocurrency market, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim the $65,000 mark [1][4] - The collective rebound of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, with the Dow gaining 370 points and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.77%, provided crucial macro support for the cryptocurrency market to halt its previous decline [1][4] - A notable "super whale" spot buy of approximately $4.5 million was observed, which, while not massive in absolute terms, exceeded the typical order size for such investors, indicating a defensive positioning by deep market funds [1][4] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently at an extreme oversold level, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 25.71, the lowest since July 2022, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [2][5] - The price of Bitcoin is less than 9% away from its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately $58,855, a level that has historically acted as a significant support [2][5] - Analysts indicate that for a true reversal to occur, Bitcoin must achieve a balance in the risk-reward ratio and confirm mining cost prices, with future monetary policy direction being a critical factor [2][5] Group 3 - Although the current oversold signals present a possibility for a rebound, confirmation of the bottom will require time and sustained liquidity [3][6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the support strength of the 200-week moving average and any marginal changes in macro liquidity policy, as the market often needs additional positive catalysts to initiate a new upward trend [3][6]

此前，受美国贸易政策不确定性和中东地缘政治紧张局势升级的推动，金价一度强势反弹，收复了本月 初历史性暴跌中的过半失地。但在周二，金价结束了连续四天的上涨势头。这一回调主要归因于两方面 的压力：一是部分交易者在金价快速拉升至高位后选择获利了结；二是美元指数走强，对以美元计价的 黄金构成了直接打压。 触发金价回调的直接原因是市场的技术性调整和资金流向变化。在连续上涨后，黄金触及技术阻力位， 引发了大量的获利了结卖盘。与此同时，美联储官员的鹰派言论为美元提供了有力支撑。波士顿联邦储 备银行行长柯林斯周二表示，鉴于近期数据显示劳动力市场依然强劲，利率可能需要在"一段时间内"保 持不变。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也强调，在通胀持续回落至目标水平之前，不适合进一步降息。这些表态削弱 了市场对短期内降息的预期，根据CME FedWatch工具，市场对3月降息的预期概率已降至极低水平。美 元因此维持强势，对黄金构成压制。 尽管短期承压，但分析人士认为，黄金的下行空间相对有限，多重避险因素仍在提供坚实的支撑。当 前，美国期货和期权市场的交易员们纷纷押注美联储明年将继续降息而不是加息。原先交易员们一直押 注美联储将在今年年底前两次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the risk of military conflict between the US and Iran, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices, which reached a new high for February [1][5]. Price Movements - On February 25, gold prices initially surged to $5249, marking a new high for the month, but faced resistance and subsequently dropped nearly $80 to stabilize at $5145. After a brief rebound to $5191, gold fell again to $5092 before closing at $5173, indicating a high-level fluctuation [1][5]. Market Influences - The recent price action was influenced by several factors: profit-taking by investors after significant gains, the US Supreme Court's rejection of comprehensive tariffs leading to a temporary reduction in market uncertainty, and the lack of immediate military action against Iran, which shifted market focus to upcoming US-Iran negotiations [2][6]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has encountered resistance after a recent high, with key support levels at $5090 (5-day moving average) and $5020 (Bollinger Band middle track). Resistance levels are noted at $5200 and $5260 [3][7]. The technical indicators suggest a potential need for adjustment after a series of gains, but the overall long-term outlook remains bullish due to expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January exceeded expectations, with 130,000 jobs added, leading to a decrease in unemployment to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The silver market is expected to remain weak due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes that the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price rose by 1.51% and COMEX silver fell by 0.33% [9][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the non-ferrous metals sector [12]. Base Metals - The report discusses the price movements of various base metals, indicating that aluminum prices have shown a slight decline of 0.63% to $3,091 per ton, while copper prices decreased by 0.98% to $12,932 per ton [14][25]. - It mentions that the domestic aluminum production is expected to decline due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to weaker demand [26]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to rise, with the current average price at 1,101.52 CNY per gram, while silver prices have decreased significantly [74]. - It also highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting precious metal prices, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iran relations [2][78]. Energy Metals - The report emphasizes a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday due to recovering demand [2][60]. - It notes that the nickel market is likely to see upward price movement due to Indonesia's mining quota policies [2][60]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others, based on their strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The report notes that silver prices may continue to weaken due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste, indicating a trend towards cheaper metals [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the SW Non-ferrous Index rose by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price increased by 1.51% and COMEX silver decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks, with several companies recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and valuations [3]. Base Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in base metal prices, noting that aluminum prices have been under pressure due to high inventory levels and seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [25][26]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling due to strong U.S. employment data and cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [45]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report states that gold and silver prices have seen fluctuations, with gold averaging 1101.52 CNY per gram, down 0.83% from the previous week, while silver prices fell significantly [74]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metal prices, with a focus on the potential for price recovery as market conditions evolve [78]. Energy Metals - The report highlights a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday as demand recovers [9]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rise due to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore export quota policy [9].

特朗普国情咨文称绝不允许伊朗拥核，为金价再添支撑。其他贵金属同步走强：白银一度涨4.8%至 91.07美元，铂金涨5.5%至2283.11美元，钯金涨2.58%至1825.70美元，均创三周新高。 摘要周三亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡上行，一度涨1.34%至5210美元/盎司，现回落至5190美元附近，涨幅 收窄至0.95%。市场避险情绪升温，因美国最高法院推翻特朗普多项关税后，其政策前景仍不明朗，加 剧不确定性。 周三亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡上行，一度涨1.34%至5210美元/盎司，现回落至5190美元附近，涨幅收窄 至0.95%。市场避险情绪升温，因美国最高法院推翻特朗普多项关税后，其政策前景仍不明朗，加剧不 确定性。 美国周二起对全球加征10%临时进口关税，白宫拟再提至15%，政策混乱令市场承压。两位美联储官员 暗示短期不调息，但市场仍预期年内三次25基点降息。 ...