12月29日早盘，商品价格持续狂飙。白银连续主力合约日内涨6%，报19210.00元，LME伦铜涨幅扩大超5%， 报12785.33美元/吨，均创历史新高。 受此提振，银、铜板块集体大涨，白银有色、湖南白银领涨，江西铜业、兴业银锡、宝钛股份等跟涨，聚焦 上游资源品的有色矿业ETF招商（159690）早盘获资金净流入。 华源证券指出，供给端，智利铜矿存罢工预期，若罢工事件蔓延，将进一步加剧铜矿紧张格局。冶炼端，国 家发改委鼓励大型铜冶炼骨干企业实施兼并重组，铜冶炼反内卷或有望稳步推进。需求端，高铜价短期对需 求有所抑制，电解铜杆周度开工率60.73%，环比减少2.33pct。中长期看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频 发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在反内卷背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入 降息周期，铜价有望突破上行。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方稀 土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。截至最新收盘日， 有色矿业指数年内涨幅达103.55%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅93.94%，相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals prices, including gold and silver, is accompanied by significant risks of a forced sell-off as the new year approaches, which investors should be cautious about [1][21]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has seen a nearly 70% increase over the year, reaching over $4,000 per ounce and setting over 50 new highs [3]. - Silver has experienced a remarkable rise of nearly 140%, with prices approaching $70 per ounce [3]. - Platinum has reached a 16-year high with an annual increase of nearly 130%, marking its best performance since records began in 1990 [5]. - Palladium has also surged to a near four-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 95% [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar's attractiveness, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like precious metals [7]. - Global geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions near Venezuela, have heightened the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven investments [9]. - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has led to explosive trading volumes, further fueling market enthusiasm [9]. Group 3: Silver's Industrial Demand and Risks - Silver's price surge has significantly increased its cost share in solar panels, rising from a few percent to nearly 20%, posing challenges for solar companies [11]. - Companies are developing technologies to reduce silver usage, which could lead to a decrease in silver demand by 50 million to 60 million ounces in the coming years [13]. - The industrial demand for silver may become a hindrance to its price growth if companies continue to seek alternatives [13]. Group 4: Upcoming Forced Sell-off - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will require significant adjustments in January, leading to forced selling of gold and silver futures by large funds to rebalance their portfolios [15]. - This forced sell-off could result in a 9% pressure on silver and a 3% pressure on gold in the futures market [17]. Group 5: January Effect and Investor Caution - The historical "January Effect," where gold typically performs well, may be challenged this year due to the anticipated forced sell-off [19]. - Investors should remain cautious and not solely focus on the attractive price increases, as underlying risks could lead to market volatility [21].

2025.12.28 本文字数：2279，阅读时长大约4分钟 针对新一轮贵金属大涨行情，南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，美联储重 启降息并技术性扩表，贸易关税政策加剧去美元化，美国财政可持续性危机削弱美元信用。投资需求取 代央行购金成为主导力量，进一步推升价格。 "白银市场则出现结构性挤兑，全球库存'拆东墙补西墙'，叠加工业刚性需求与期货交割量井喷导致现 货溢价飙升。"夏莹莹进一步分析称。 金银价格再刷高，交易所提保扩板抑投机 2025年以来，黄金领涨贵金属市场，白银后来居上。 作者 |第一财经 齐琦 2025年的交易临近收官，全球贵金属市场再度迎来历史性行情。 12月26日，国际金银价格同步创下历史新高，其中伦敦金现货最高触及4549.9美元/盎司；白银表现更 为迅猛，盘中最高触及79.4美元/盎司，年内涨幅超174%。 这场席卷全球的贵金属盛宴，由多重因素支撑。 贵金属市场全年的行情先后经历关税驱动、震荡调整、降息预期主导以及技术回调几个主要阶段，就在 市场认为行情将在高位震荡收官之际，新一轮涨势再起，并再创历史新高。 12月26日，伦敦金现货价格突破4500美元/盎司整数关口。截 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has reached a historical high due to a combination of interest rate cut expectations and increased geopolitical risk, continuing its bull market trend while cautioning against potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, gold has outperformed global assets, with an overall increase of over 100% since breaking through a long-term bottom in 2024, and a year-to-date rise exceeding 65% [1] - On December 26, gold prices surged to a new historical high of 4540, closing at 4533.34, marking a daily increase of 1.19% and a weekly gain of 4.49% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are firmly positioned at the upper boundary of an upward channel, with the 5-day moving average providing strong support, indicating short-term upward momentum [3] - Key resistance is noted at 4550; failure to break this level may trigger a technical adjustment, while 4500 serves as a critical support level for bulls [3] - The 4-hour chart shows a bullish trend with strong support between 4495-4500, and a breakthrough above 4550 could initiate a new upward phase [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates a narrow range of price movement around 4520-4540, with a slight bullish signal from MACD, suggesting that short-term strategies should focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3]

贵金属成为本周最突出的亮点。避险情绪和降息预期共振下，现货黄金连续刷新历史新高，周五最高一度突破4530美元/盎司，今年累计涨超70%。白银走 势更为凌厉，连续突破整数关口并刷新纪录，周五最高涨破75美元/盎司关口；铂金、钯金及工业金属铜也在资金推动下创出阶段性甚至历史新高。截至发 稿，金银分别报4517.22和74.50美元/盎司。 非美货币方面，日本方面释放强烈干预信号，推动美元兑日元明显回落。弱势美元下，欧元、英镑、澳元兑美元本周均明显走高。 国际油价在供应端扰动预期下震荡偏强。周初受委内瑞拉、俄罗斯潜在供应风险影响明显反弹，随后两日围绕高位反复拉锯。美国可能出售扣押的委内瑞拉 原油，与乌克兰加大对俄相关设施的袭击消息交织，使油价在利多与不确定性之间反复定价，整体呈现高位震荡、小幅走高的特征。 行情回顾 本周，美元指数整体偏弱运行。周一开盘后持续下行，周二进一步跌破98关口，反映市场对美联储明年降息预期有所升温，之后虽然出现技术性反弹，一度 重回98附近，但力度有限，全周仍处相对低位震荡。截至发稿，美指报97.93。 美股方面，三大股指整体延续震荡上行走势，"圣诞行情"如期而至。标普500指数在周二、周 ...

二、同金不同价 深圳金价相对更低，核心原因在于其背靠全国重要黄金集散地，罗湖水贝，当地黄金加工工厂与批发摊位高度集中，供给充足、竞争充分，终端零售更容易 压低利润空间，因此同类产品价格更具优势。 海口主要依赖外地调货，物流与渠道成本更高，旅游消费需求旺盛，金饰作为"礼品与纪念品"的购买占比更高，商家提价空间更大，导致同一纯度金饰的零 售价长期偏高。 国内品牌金饰克价普遍突破1400元，铂、钯等贵金属亦全线飙升，引发国内交易所连续出台风险管控措施，市场分析认为，通胀放缓强化降息预期、地缘风 险及央行购金是主要推动力，高盛更预测金价2026年或达4900美元。 一、金店价格下调，海口与深圳价差显著 近期国内金店零售金价出现明显回落，引发消费者关注，以海南海口与广东深圳为例，同为千足金，两地标价相差约17元/克。 若购买30克金饰，仅地区差异就可能形成500元以上的价差，价格下行的背景之一，是国际金价走弱带动国内市场同步调整，上海黄金交易所报价也出现下 跌，部分城市门店随之降价。 除金价本身外，加工费（工费）差异往往更显著，即便同为千足金，不同地区、不同工艺（如硬金）加价可能相差数倍：有消费者反馈，深圳硬金的工费加 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "破七之后：强势已现，空间几何" - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Research Institute: Huatai Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Cai Shaoli, Zhu Simou [1] Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The logic of RMB's oscillatory strength remains unchanged. The RMB has broken through the 7.00 integer mark, but the appreciation this round is more driven by external factors and trade rhythm. The internal fundamentals have not formed a trend resonance. It is expected to operate in the range of 6.95–7.05 with a slight upward bias in the short term, and the appreciation pace will slow down after breaking 7 [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the overall implied volatility shows an upward trend [4]. Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor remains in the negative range but has not been activated. There is a fluctuation in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [7]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economy - **Interest Rate Cut and Liquidity**: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 861.4 billion on December 17 (previous value: 805.8 billion), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (- 123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [14]. - **Fed Chair Candidates**: The core competition is between Waller, Hassett, and Warsh. Market probabilities show Hassett leading, but Trump highly trusts Bessent. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Fed losing its independence", which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it may trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Fed losing its independence", which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [17]. - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations, but the pace of interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the CPI increase in November was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [19]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in November was lower than expected. The contributions of food and core commodities decreased, the contribution of crude oil increased, and the contribution of core services decreased. There is a divergence between CPI and PMI [20]. - **Non - farm Payrolls in November**: Compared with September, the non - farm payrolls in November continued to weaken, with only the construction industry showing improvement. In the unemployment rate, re - employment and temporary unemployment had negative contributions, indicating a change in the employment environment [22]. - **Chinese Economy**: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [24]. Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - The supply and demand of foreign exchange are generally balanced. The surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has fallen to 15.65 billion US dollars, and although the surplus continues, it is gradually weakening at the margin. The scale of settlement and sale of foreign exchange has not significantly increased or decreased, and the marginal guidance of single - month data on the exchange rate has declined. Enterprises' spot - end operations tend to be rational, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts falling to 51.99% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments falling to 60.30%. Enterprises maintain a balanced payment and receipt management, and there is no concentrated settlement or sale of foreign exchange. On the forward end, the management is mainly about existing risks. The demand for new forward hedging has cooled down, and the performance shows a divergence of "decrease in settlement and increase in purchase". The net forward settlement of foreign exchange that has not expired continues to rise, and the hedging structure is stable without showing directional bets [31]. Foreign - related Receipts and Payments - The overall surplus has significantly narrowed, but the structure is stable. The surplus of domestic banks' agency foreign - related receipts and payments has declined. Both the current account and the capital and financial account have weakened simultaneously, reflecting a rhythm adjustment rather than a directional change. The surplus foundation of the current account is still solid. The current account surplus has decreased from 74.66 billion to 55.24 billion US dollars, mainly due to the stable export rhythm and the marginal repair of imports. The goods trade surplus is still as high as 72.67 billion US dollars, indicating the resilience of the foreign trade fundamentals. The service trade deficit has expanded to - 6.42 billion US dollars, weakening the support for the surplus. The capital and financial account has a structural outflow, but the pressure has eased. The capital account deficit has expanded to - 38.61 billion US dollars, among which the securities investment deficit has significantly narrowed, and the direct investment deficit has slightly improved. There is no concentrated outflow in a single channel, and cross - border capital flows remain controllable [36]. Overall Viewpoint - The current situation shows that the difference in economic expectations is favorable for the RMB. The US employment and business activities have cooled down simultaneously, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the wage growth rate falling to 3.5%. In the same period, China's economic growth - stabilizing policies have continued to take effect, and exports and the current account surplus are robust. The Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral. Under the Fed's interest rate - cut cycle, the real return advantage of the US dollar has converged, while China's monetary policy maintains a stable orientation and the interest rate system is stable. The uncertainty of trade policy is neutral. The US trade and industrial policies towards China still have uncertainties, but the adjustment rhythm has slowed down. China's export market continues to diversify, the trade surplus has reached a record high, and the external demand structure is stable [40]. 2026 Scenario Deduction - There are multiple important events and turning points throughout 2026, including the Fed chair candidate situation at the end of 2025, OPEC and FOMC meetings in January, the government work report in February, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, the expiration of Powell's term in May, the FOMC meeting on June 18, the El Nino situation in June, the Politburo meeting in July, the FOMC meeting on September 29, the US mid - term elections on November 3, and the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs on November 10. These events are related to policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, which will have an impact on the economic situation [43].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a likely interest rate hike next year, indicating increased confidence in achieving sustainable price targets [1][5][6] - Ueda mentioned that the prospects for achieving the 2% price stability target are steadily approaching, supported by rising wages and changes in corporate behavior regarding wage and price setting [1][5] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that most observers expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates every six months from now [1][5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet plans to announce a record initial budget for the fiscal year starting April 2024, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about 786 billion USD), which is a 6.3% increase from the current fiscal year's budget [1][6] - The government plans to raise about 29.6 trillion yen through new government bonds to fund the budget, with the reliance on bond issuance expected to decrease from 24.9% to 24.2% [1][6] - Kishida stated that the budget aims to balance economic strengthening and fiscal sustainability [1][6]

金瑞期货表示，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠加议息会议偏鸽，使得 金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上 涨；铂钯则在外盘休市和国内市场情绪和资金带动下走出独立行情。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国 家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 新湖期货表示，市场投资热情高涨，叠加国内库存在10月底接近干涸，虽然本月以来有所回升，但仍处 于较低水平，使得国内沪银溢价大幅飙升，创下历史新高。国际方面，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最 大的白银ETF——SLV（美国）22日单日流入533吨，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同时COMEX白银通 知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空 间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥 和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 金瑞期货：宏观与低库存共振，银价保持强势 新湖期货：白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上 ...