Group 1 - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance this year, driven by breakthroughs in AI technology, which have significantly improved market sentiment and attracted global capital to Hong Kong as a "value oasis" [1][7]. - Structural changes have broken the logic of low valuations in Hong Kong stocks, which had been perceived as a "value trap" due to poor liquidity and low returns. Recent improvements in various factors have led to a revaluation of the market [4][7]. - The liquidity situation in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved this year, supported by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity injections, continuous net inflows from southbound funds, and a booming IPO market [17][24]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that earnings will become the key driver of market trends, as the valuation expansion space is limited. The focus should be on sectors and stocks that are less affected by tariff policies and can leverage AI for strong earnings growth [36][44]. - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market will primarily exhibit structural trends in the short term, with accelerated sector rotation expected as the half-year earnings reporting period approaches [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors with low valuations and strong earnings potential, particularly in the technology sector related to AI, to achieve better returns [36][47]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the IPO market in Hong Kong has rebounded significantly, with total fundraising reaching 122.9 billion HKD this year, surpassing the total for 2024, and a notable decrease in the first-day listing failure rate [29][30]. - The report notes that share buybacks in Hong Kong remain at a high level, with a total buyback amount of 107 billion HKD so far this year, which is expected to improve ROE in the market [31][34]. - The report highlights that the earnings growth expectations for the Hang Seng Index are relatively low compared to other indices, but the technology sector is expected to show strong growth, with projected earnings growth rates of 33.2% and 22.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [36][38].

"我们正处于一个新的常态：10%成了新的零关税，所以如果其他国家都适用15%和20%的税率，那这两 个数字似乎也没那么糟糕，"法国外贸银行(Natixis)新兴亚洲高级经济学家Trinh Nguyen表示。她称，在 15%-20%的关税水平下，美国企业从国外进口商品仍比在国内生产同类产品更有利可图。 智通财经APP获悉，延续数月的不确定性终于有所消散，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普最新达成的关税协议 为全球最大制造业地区的新贸易格局勾勒出大致轮廓。周二，特朗普宣布与日本达成协议，将对日本进 口商品(包括汽车)征收15%的关税，汽车是美日贸易逆差中占比最大的部分。美国与菲律宾达成的另一 项协议设定关税税率为19%，与印尼达成的税率相同，比越南20%的基准税率低1个百分点，这表明东 南亚大部分国家可能会获得类似的税率。 与此同时，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，他将于下周在斯德哥尔摩与中国同财政部长举行第三轮 会谈，旨在延长关税休战期并扩大讨论范围。这表明，在美方近期放宽芯片限制、中方恢复稀土出口之 后，这两个全球最大经济体之间的关系正持续趋于稳定。 "我们与中国相处得非常好，"特朗普周二告诉记者，"我们的关系非常棒。" ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议：对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。 特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美国刚刚与日本达成了一项"巨大的"协议，可能是有史以来最大的一项。 据7月23日最新消息，日本首相石破茂将在8月结束前正式表明辞职意向。该消息传出后，日本股市涨幅扩大。 石破茂证实日美达成协议 当地时间7月23日，石破茂在直播记者会上称，日本与美国就关税问题达成一致，美方将向日本征收15%的关税，并增加进口美国大米。 此外，石破茂表示，日美双方就通过日本企业在半导体、钢铁、造船、能源、汽车等领域的投资，加强与美方供应链合作、保障经济安全，达成一致。 石破茂还称，将在日本现行的大米"最低准入制度"下，增加从美国进口大米的比例，并称此举不会牺牲日本农业。本次日美协议不包含日本对美国商品降 低关税，包括农产品关税。 此前，记者获悉，日本政府相关人士透露，在此次日美关税交涉结果中，汽车方面，美国对自日本进口的汽车加征12.5%关税，加上此前2.5%的关税税 率，合计为15%。钢铁、铝关税维持现行的50%。 日本是美国主要贸易伙伴之一，两国 ...

2025年7月23日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 大宗带动多头情绪，情绪分流盘面回调，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 7月18日 7月21日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% 7月18日 7月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上期上涨4.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2142USD/FEU, 较上期 ...

彭博社22日说，到目前为止，为美国政府关税政策埋单的是美国企业和消费者。通用汽车是最新一 家披露关税如何推高成本的美国公司。 "随着新一轮加征关税，美国企业利润率可能进一步萎缩。"美国花旗银行经济分析团队指出，迄今 为止，美国企业正在自行消化大部分关税政策成本，今后日子恐怕更难过。高盛集团近期发布的报告也 显示，美国企业正压缩利润以消化关税成本，但迫于经营压力，最终恐怕还是会提高产品售价，把大部 分关税直接成本转嫁给消费者。 美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司表示，受关税政策影响，公司已上调日常必需品的货架价格，并警告称本 月开始的返校季商品可能涨价。此外，美国最大网购平台亚马逊已提高除臭剂、蛋白奶昔和宠物护理用 品等低成本商品价格。 总部位于加利福尼亚州、代理大量日韩品牌美妆和护肤产品的奥塞亚娜公司负责人李简延告诉记 者，因为化妆品比日用品的利润空间大一些，目前化妆品企业还没有提高美国市场零售价格，但最终涨 价恐怕也难以避免。"大家都在看欧莱雅或宝洁这些大公司，一旦它们为了保证利润率开始调价，全行 业都会集体涨价。" 新华社洛杉矶7月22日电 综述｜美国关税政策"回旋镖"伤及美企和消费者 新华社记者黄恒 美国多家企业和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive trend with a 0.92% increase, marking a four-day consecutive rise, and is expected to continue its upward momentum due to favorable economic policies and market conditions [3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a 0.54% increase over the past week [3]. - The fund's net inflow reached 91.86 million yuan recently, with a total of 156 million yuan over the last five trading days, averaging 31.22 million yuan per day [3][4]. - The fund's net value has increased by 84.85% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On July 23, 2025, the London spot gold price reached a peak of 3438.8 USD/ounce, the highest since June 16 [3]. - The expectation of stable tariff policies and continued tax cuts under "Trump 2.0" is anticipated to provide strong support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Fund Metrics - The gold ETF fund's latest share count reached 3.881 billion, a new high for the past month [3]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 2.34 over the past year, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4].

Group 1 - Stellantis Group reported a 12.6% year-on-year decline in net revenue for the first half of the year, totaling €74.3 billion (approximately ¥623.5 billion), resulting in a loss of €2.3 billion (approximately ¥19.3 billion) [2] - Global consolidated shipments for Stellantis in Q2 2025 were approximately 1.4 million units, a 6% year-on-year decrease, with North American shipments down by about 109,000 units (25% decline) and European shipments down by about 50,000 units (6% decline) [2] - In other regions, Stellantis experienced a total shipment increase of 71,000 units (22% year-on-year), driven by a 30% increase in the Middle East and Africa and a 20% increase in South America [2] Group 2 - The significant decline in North American shipments was primarily attributed to the U.S. tariff policy, which imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles announced on April 3 [3] - Stellantis anticipates that the U.S. tariff policy will impact its first-half performance by approximately €300 million, with a potential annual impact of €1 billion to €1.5 billion [3] - The company plans to rebalance production across different geographic regions, with expected benefits not materializing until the second half of 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the silver market, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2][3] - As of July 22, 2025, the silver ETF holdings increased to 15,158.37 tons, up by 152.58 tons from the previous day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The price of silver closed at $39.29 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of $0.37 or 0.94%, with intraday highs reaching $39.32 and lows at $38.69 [1][4] Group 2 - Economic analysts express concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's tariff threats, which could significantly impact the Eurozone economy, leading to uncertainty in the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding interest rates until more data on inflation and labor market conditions are available, with inflation potentially rising towards 3% [3] - The silver market showed a strong upward movement after initially declining, indicating potential bullish trends for the upcoming trading sessions [4]