新华财经纽约1月7日电（记者刘亚南）受利空消息打压和投资者选择获利了结，纽约股市三大股指7日 开盘时涨跌不一，早盘走势分化，午后整体走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一，标普500指数和 道指收盘中均创下历史新高。 美国供应管理学会当日上午发布的数据显示，美国2025年12月服务业景气指数为54.4，高于市场预期的 52.2和前一个月的52.6。 美国投资公司Globalt Investments的高级投资组合经理基思·布坎南（Keith Buchanan）表示，从股市角度 看，南美发生的事情尚未改变美国增长的前景。在评估日益增加整体地缘政治风险方面存在一些自满， 但自己不认为委内瑞拉发生的事情引起改变。只是感觉仍旧处于紧张局势之中。 布坎南说，油价没有出现大幅波动显示出市场认为供需远远没有达到紧张程度。有显著的供应过剩风 险。 美国总统特朗普当日表示，在防务公司解决自己对行业的关切之前，自己不会允许发放红利或回购股 票。他还称，正在立即采取行动禁止大型机构投资者购买更多单户住宅，以应对很多人买不起住房的问 题。 特朗普这一表态刺激相关股票价格显著走低，黑石集团（Blackstone Inc.）股价当日盘中跌 ...

Group 1 - The latest price of Shanghai gold futures is 1000.30 CNY per gram, down by 5.22 USD, a decrease of 0.52%, successfully maintaining the key level of 1000 CNY per gram [1] - The opening price for the day was 999.40 CNY per gram, with a high of 1004.94 CNY and a low of 995.20 CNY [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that Shanghai gold futures continue a strong upward trend, with prices stabilizing above the psychological level of 1000 CNY per gram [4] - Technical indicators show a bullish alignment of the 5-day and 20-day moving averages, with the MACD histogram expanding, indicating strong momentum; however, the RSI is approaching 75, suggesting a potential technical correction [4] - Key support is identified in the range of 970–980 CNY per gram, while resistance is focused on the 1005–1010 CNY range [4] - Driving factors include the international gold price surpassing 4450 USD per ounce, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical risk premiums, leading to increased risk-averse sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent decline in gold prices due to profit-taking by short-term futures traders, with a notable resistance level at record highs causing caution among gold bulls [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, indicating a strong and persistent demand for gold amid rising prices [3] - In December, the People's Bank of China added 30,000 ounces of gold, bringing the total increase since November 2024 to approximately 1.35 million ounces (42 tons) [3] Group 2 - The February gold futures have a key resistance level at $4,584.00 per ounce, while the bearish target is to push prices below the critical support level of $4,200.00 per ounce [4] - The first resistance level is at the overnight high of $4,512.40 per ounce, followed by $4,550.00 per ounce; the first support level is at today's low of $4,432.90 per ounce, with the next support at $4,400.00 per ounce [4]

这对于我们A股投资者的策略启示在于： 首先，理性看待外部波动。美股的这种日内技术性调整，不应成为影响我们中长期判断A股的主因。我 们更应关注其产业趋势（如科技的韧性）而非短期指数波动。 其次，关注联动与分化。美股能源、金融板块的波动，可能会通过情绪和港股传导，影响A股相关板 块，需要观察其持续性。但A股有自身独立的政策和产业逻辑，如"人工智能+制造"，才是我们更应聚 焦的主场。 朋友们，美股昨晚的走势，给我们上了一堂生动的"过山车"体验课。道指和标普500在盘中再次刷新历 史纪录后，却没能坚持到终点，最终双双翻绿收盘。这种创新高后的回落，是牛市中一次健康的"技术 性呼吸"，还是预示着动能的衰竭？我是帮主郑重，咱们一起来拆解这背后的信号。 市场表现得很有意思，可以说是"几家欢乐几家愁"。拖累大盘的主要是年初表现强劲的金融和能源板 块。银行股普遍回吐涨幅，能源巨头如埃克森美孚、雪佛龙也显著下跌。这背后有一条清晰的传导链： 特朗普政府关于将开始"销售"委内瑞拉石油并可能无限期继续的明确表态，直接逆转了市场的短期预 期。油价应声下跌，能源股随之承压。这再次证明，在复杂的地缘政治面前，资本的神经是极其敏感 的，任何关于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. The silver price may face significant volatility risks, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **15:00 Price on January 7, 2026**: London gold spot was $4444.75/ounce, London silver spot was $78.99/ounce, COMEX gold was $4455.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $78.83/ounce, AU2602 was 998.90 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 19287.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 996.29 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19264.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 6, 2026, the price changes were - 0.5%, 0.0%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.6%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% respectively [3] - **Spread/Ratio**: On January 7, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.61 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 23 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 6.70 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 777 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 51.79, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 56.51, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.50 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was 3 yuan/kilogram. The price changes compared with January 6, 2026 were - 2.6%, - 309.1%, 23.6%, 32.9%, 0.3%, - 0.6%, 3.3%, and - 160.0% respectively [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of January 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1067.13 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16118.15581 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275592 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 44419 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 231173 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 50506 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 20443 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 30063 contracts. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.19%, - 1.44%, - 5.02%, - 10.19%, - 3.96%, - 8.57%, 5.60%, and - 16.22% respectively [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 97653.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 553429.00 kilograms. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 4.82% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36403452 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449211255 troy ounces. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and - 0.07% respectively [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 7, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.02, the US dollar index was 98.60, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, the VIX was 14.75, the S&P 500 was 6944.82, and NYMEX crude oil was 56.97. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were 0.02%, 0.28%, 0.29%, 0.24%, - 1.01%, 0.62%, and - 2.37% respectively [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 7, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.17% to 998.9 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.07% to 19290 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The increase in the possibility of geopolitical risk spill - over and the risk - aversion demand boosted the prices of precious metals. The main contract of silver futures broke through the 2000 yuan/kilogram mark and reached a new high. Then, due to profit - taking pressure and market concerns about the BO0H index adjustment, the prices of precious metals fell from their highs. The weakening of the domestic silver spot premium and the positive structure of silver TV and futures also suppressed the upward trend of the silver price. However, the People's Bank of China's continuous gold reserve increase for 14 months and the lower - than - expected US ADP data in December supported the prices of precious metals [4] 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term View - In the medium and long term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization trends. The US huge debt and the weakened independence of the Fed will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [5]

摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌1.74美元，跌幅 0.17%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1001.86元/克，最高价1004.25元/克，最低价998.44元/克。 【要闻速递】 近期黄金下跌主要源于前期大涨后的获利了结。2025年底金价一度冲上4550美元历史高位，2026年初虽 有回落，但仍处超高位运行。盘中现货金最低跌至4422.89美元，跌幅达1.7%，反映部分资金锁定利润 以规避风险。 不过，尾盘跌幅明显收窄，美国就业数据疲软成为支撑因素。11月职位空缺降幅超预期，12月ADP新增 就业远低于预期，显示劳动力市场降温，强化市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期。投资者目前押注2026年 美联储累计降息61个基点。周五将公布的非农就业报告若继续疲软，金价可能快速反弹，因为低利率环 境会降低持有黄金的机会成本，利好这一无息资产。 【最新现货黄金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are swinging back and forth. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's return to a "restrictive" stance in December, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad, with asset sentiment deviating from the macro situation. Future commodity prices will be determined by supply - side risks and loose monetary policies due to global geopolitical instability [1]. - There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December returned to the expansion range [2]. - For commodity investment, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are also opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for price increases. In the energy sector, pay attention to the growth expectation of crude oil supply after the US "temporary management" of Venezuela. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of some varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are unstable. After the Central Economic Work Conference in December and the 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference in January, there are uncertainties in domestic and foreign policies. The Fed has internal differences. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday have increased supply - side risks for commodities [1]. - On January 7, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain was active, and the coal sector had a strong performance. In the commodity futures market, many contracts such as nickel, coke, and coking coal reached the daily limit [1]. Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's November foreign trade growth rebounded. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs returned to the expansion range. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but were still weak, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [2]. Commodity Investment - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Among non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a good choice. In the energy sector, pay attention to the situation in Venezuela and Iran. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices, but short - term silver risks have increased [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Key News - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month in December. On January 8, the central bank carried out a 1.1 trillion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation. The US Supreme Court will rule on the tariff issue on January 9. Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Affected by multiple factors such as sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, tin prices rose sharply. It is expected that short - term prices will be mainly driven by macro factors and remain strongly volatile [2]. Nickel Industry - Recently, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment. The actual implementation remains to be observed, but short - term quota uncertainties and strong capital sentiment still provide some support. The nickel price may fluctuate widely at high levels, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore and nickel - iron sectors has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The stainless - steel market is in a supply - demand game. After the release of the positive sentiment from the nickel - ore news, the further upward drive may be limited. In the short term, the price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [7]. Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain level of resilience. However, in the off - season, the power market orders decline, and the destocking speed slows down. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract possibly testing the 150,000 resistance level and then adjusting downward [11]. Copper Industry - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price has over - priced the long - term benefits and is overvalued to some extent. However, in a high - risk - appetite market environment, the short - term price may still remain strong, with the main contract focusing on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [13]. Zinc Industry - Supported by the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ores, the short - term zinc price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro environment, with the main contract focusing on the 23,300 - 23,400 support level [17]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the market surplus pressure is still severe, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. For aluminum, strong macro and policy expectations provide a bottom support, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will suppress the upward space. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to remain low and volatile, with a main fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price will remain high and volatile. In January, under the weak - demand background, there is a pressure to further reduce production to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production cuts and price - adjustment acceptance [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw - material supply, import - window changes, and downstream pre - Spring Festival stocking [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 4.37% and 4.36% respectively, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 116.59% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, and the export of refined tin from Indonesia increased by 186.54%. In December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly by 0.06% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory decreased by 6.38%, and the social inventory decreased by 9.15% [2]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.67% and 4.71% respectively, and the futures import loss increased significantly by 4,880.90% [4]. - **Cost**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from external - sourced materials increased, while the cost of integrated high - matte nickel production decreased by 3.60% [4]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 4.89% and 3.76% respectively, and the basis between futures and spot prices increased by 213.33% [7]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.91%, and the price of Inner Mongolia high - carbon ferrochrome increased by 1.23% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50%, and the net export volume increased by 25.31%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.93% [7]. Lithium Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 2.96% to 7.93% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand decreased by 2.50%, and the total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Copper Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper products decreased slightly, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased significantly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90%. The social inventory and SHFE inventory increased [13]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.16%, and the import loss increased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24%, and in November, the export volume increased by 402.59%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 2.59% [17]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.96%, and the price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08%, and the production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.97% and 3.56% respectively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.05% [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial - silicon products remained stable, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15%, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 6.46%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The export volume increased by 21.78% [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 1.79% [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased and increased respectively, and the export volume increased significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.99%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 6.92% [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by about 0.85%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference increased [23]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots increased slightly by 0.46%. The开工 rates of various types of aluminum - alloy enterprises decreased [23]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 4.40% [23].

与此同时，美国总统特朗普持续威胁要吞并格陵兰岛，这也成为市场面临的一个潜在风险。风险因素的 不断累积，为国际黄金价格在2026年初的上涨提供了关键动力。值得注意的是，地缘政治风险并非国际 黄金市场的唯一影响因素。 2026年，美联储的降息倾向以及美联储主席换届，均在一定程度上利好国际黄金市场的表现。2025年9 月，美联储正式开启降息周期，并且在2025年最后的三场货币政策会议上连续降息。进入2026年，美联 储内部对于下一步应该如何调整货币政策路径依然存在分歧。 2026年伊始，国际金价延续了2025年的火热势头。1月6日，国际现货黄金价格一度站上4500美元/盎 司，虽有波动，但总体而言，国际黄金价格仍维持在高位。2026年开年，美国与委内瑞拉之间的地缘政 治冲突点燃了市场的避险情绪，黄金作为重要的避险资产，继续受到市场投资者的追捧。 明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利表示，美联储距离停止降息已经非常接近。现在的政策立场已经非常接 近中性。需要有更多的数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧。 尽管当前美联储内部对后续的货币政策路径存在一定的分歧，但从目前的情况看，美联储在2026年可能 至少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina contracts, driven by low valuations and supply disruptions [1][2]. Price Movements - Nickel (沪镍2602) rose by 8.00% to 147,720, while tin (沪锡2602) increased by 5.33% to 359,050, and alumina (氧化铝2605) saw a rise of 4.97% to 2,938 [2]. - Other notable increases include lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605) at +4.54%, lead (沪铅2602) at +1.83%, and aluminum (沪铝2602) at +1.18% [2]. Market Drivers - The price surge in nickel is attributed to cost support and policy disruptions, particularly from Indonesia, which has reduced nickel ore production quotas and plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel [3][4]. - Tin prices are driven by supply constraints and increasing demand, with production recovery in Myanmar falling short of expectations [4]. - Alumina prices are supported by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to increase operational costs [4]. Market Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is primarily driven by the depreciation of the US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, which enhance investment demand [4]. - However, there is a concern regarding insufficient downstream demand in the domestic market, leading to limited transaction volumes and deep discounts in the spot market [4]. - The long-term outlook suggests potential risks of significant corrections in the non-ferrous sector, particularly for aluminum and lead, while nickel's price increase heavily relies on overseas policy factors [4][5].